Evidence 6: The ‘Tadpole’
The ‘Tadpole’ is a nickname given to a tadpole-shaped ‘large smokey cloud like object’, which was observed from two locations — Charhoi and Thanamandi (ref videos). In both videos, the ‘Tadpole’ stands out against a clear sky, which is devoid of any clouds and any other natural phenomenon.
So, what was it?
Before analysing the videos, let’s take a look at the position of the Sun in southern Azad Kashmir area on 27 February 2019 at approximately 1020 — 1030 hours. The position is as shown below, obtained through a Sun position calculator and will be used for calculating the directions as required.
Position of the Sun with respect to Azad Kashmir at 1030 hours on 27 February 2019 | Image: By special arrangement
1. Analysing the Thanamandi video
This
video was shot by a Kashmiri named Wasim from the Thanamandi town of Rajouri district in J&K, looking towards Azad Kashmir from his location. It was uploaded on YouTube on 28 February 2019. From the shadow of the objects and the known position of the Sun at approx 1030 hours in J&K, it can be inferred that the observer is looking towards a westerly course of 230–250 degrees.
A tadpole-shaped, cloud-like object is seen falling towards the earth in Azad Kashmir in the video (Screenshot)
The enlarged view clearly shows a burning object falling, being shielded by a smoke cover.
An image analysis of the enlarged view of the Tadpole indicates presence of a hot spot — with a fire burning within, shielded by the emanating smoke.
This clearly indicates that the Tadpole is a man-made object on fire.
With feedback from Wasim that he had taken the video from his mobile phone from Thanamandi area in J&K, it was easy to locate and geotag the location using Google Earth. The coordinates of the observer are 33°31’30.90″N, 74°20’37.20″E at an AMSL (above mean sea level) altitude of 4,800 feet. His geotagged position with Google Earth (Courtesy @bishwa55900127) is as shown below:
Geotagged position of Thanamandi observer | Courtesy : @bishwa55900127
The ‘Tadpole’ is mathematically calculated to be at a distance of between 37–40 km from, and 8,000 feet higher than the observer, which makes it 4,800+8,000 feet=12,800 feet or 13,000 feet AMSL. On the basis of this the (bottom to top) height of the Tadpole is calculated as approx 800–1,000 feet. Thanamandi to Tadpole line is from 33°31’30.90″N, 74°20’37.20″E to 33°22’14.54″N, 73°46’4.47″E, that means that the Tadpole is located anywhere on this line between 37–40 km.
Thanamandi to Tadpole line | By special arrangement
2. Analysing the Charhoi video
The Charhoi
video which was shot by an unknown Azad Kashmir resident using a mobile camera, captures some very crucial events on 27 February. These raw clips from the same mobile within the period 1020–1045 hours were stitched together and uploaded on YouTube.
It shows the same Tadpole as seen in the Thanamandi video from a different direction, which assessing the position of the Sun, is on a course between 020–030 from the observer.
The Tadpole seen from the Charhoi observer’s position
A close up of the same Tadpole
When we superimpose the Tadpole seen from Charhoi with the one seen from Thanamandi, we get the SAME image. Both locations are seeing the same smokey cloud.
Both images show the same Tadpole image
Geotagging and finding the location of the observer took a while since the origin was unknown. However, two images in the video do provide us a clue to the location — a mobile tower and a building with a water tank, both located in the vicinity. The observer is on the building with the water tank. The scene matching with GE was done by @bennedose & @bishwa55900127, who were able to pin point the location well.
The video scenes matched to Google Earth | @bennedose
Observer’s location & scene matching in the video | Credits @bennedose
The location of the Charhoi building is at 33°18’29.17″N 73°57’25.38″E. Its elevation is aprox 2,900 feet AMSL. Using maths and related thumb rules, the Tadpole near Charhoi was 3,000–4,000 feet above the observer, or 2,900 + 3,500 (avg)= 6,500 feet AMSL. Means that the Charhoi observer saw the Tadpole at a slightly later stage than as seen from Thanamandi. In fact, towards the end in the Charhoi video, one can see that the Tadpole starts to marginally disintegrate.
Taking the heading of the Tadpole from the Charhoi observer as 025 degree on a north-east extended line, we now bisect it with the extended line from the Thanamandi observer. This gives us a ballpark position of the Tadpole on the map.
The bisector of two observation lines shows us the approximate position of the Tadpole
3. Tadpole — resolving the mystery
The Thanamandi and Charhoi videos clearly bring out that the burning object falling in the sky was made of combustible material. While the Thanamandi observer captured the Tadpole in a well-formed state around 13,000 feet AMSL— the burning object would have needed at least 8–10,000 feet to attain that shape from an initial null position, hence from altitude around 23–25,000 feet AMSL.
The white smoke and cloudy appearance also indicate — very high temperatures and continuous combustion from a supportive material, as well as condensation due to low temperatures of the burning fuel.
So, what would have the capacity to burn continuously, condense, as well as fall at a low ROD giving an appearance of a tadpole like cloud?
Fuel!
Yes, lots of fuel. Okay, this would have to be a very cold day that warms up dramatically initially and then sustains very gradual warming, leading to condensation of fuel which burns steady and slowly thereafter. But when does this ever happen?
On an average, the temperature drops by 2 degrees Celsius for every 1,000 feet of altitude gained, which would mean a drop of 2 x 22,000 feet (elevation allowance of 3,000 feet) = 44-degree change. With the ground temperature over Azad Kashmir on 27 February around 1020 hours being in the region of 10 degree centigrade, at 25,000 feet AMSL works out to be +10–44 = – 33 degrees centigrade. And what would cause a sudden, very high-rise temperature spike enough to ignite fuel at -33 degree centigrade?
That would be a combustible material — which will burn very fast, producing very high temperatures, as well as adjust to temperature changes quickly. Aluminium, is second only to copper for rapid heat transfer properties, which will burn at a very fast rate, within a confined zone.
And once the combustible material burns out, the large volume of condensation of fuel, would still be good enough to maintain the consistency and cloudy shape of the tadpole, dissipating gradually.
Here’s the $75 million question — What is made of aluminium and carries a lot of fuel in the sky?
A fighter jet!!
For trivia’s sake, 80 per cent of the airframe structure of the F-16 is of conventional aluminium alloy.
The Tadpole was formed after an aircraft’s aluminium airframe caught fire due to volatile kinetic stress — the damage releasing huge quantities of fuel in the rarefied cold air, experiencing condensation and started burning at a slow, but steady rate. A gallon of Jet A-1 type fuel weighs 6.66 pounds, which in its condensed form would have a low rate of decent — the net result — white smoke due to very high temperature (in addition to the aluminium airframe and fuel, all the armament would have exploded) intermixed with condensed fuel falling towards earth very slowly, forming a near definitive cloud like shape till dissipation at lower (warmer) levels.
On that day, temperatures till about 4–5,000 feet AGL would have been below freezing point, hence seen for a large duration of time from two different locations. Would probably have started to dissipate below 5,000 feet AGL, especially with the airframe having burnt out much earlier, encountering warmer temperatures below the freezing point during descent.
The Tadpole’s journey from 15,000 feet to 5,000 feet
Refer to the Thanamandi image on the left — the hot spot nearly encompasses an area of 150 feet (height) x 75 feet (width), which indicates a super-HOT core. In the Charhoi image (right) there is no hot spot, which indicates the combustion material may have completely burnt out. There would however be very small pieces of unburnt debris and molten metal, which would have fallen below the Tadpole over a large area.
A very critical output here is that — MOST of the airframe would have burnt out at a very fast rate, hence no large sized debris in that zone.
The Tadpole— is the VISUAL PROOF of the crash of a second aircraft in Azad Kashmir on 27 February 2019!
IF IAF only lost one aircraft — who lost a second aircraft that day?
Why the Tadpole cannot be the IAF MiG-21 is addressed in subsequent paragraphs. Also, the claimed Su-30MKI kill by the PAF was supposed to have fallen over J&K, not Azad Kashmir.
I can close the argument right here — because we now have the VISUAL proof of a ‘PAF asset’ going down during Op Swift Retort!
Yes, there is no image of the debris on ground (neither will there be anything meaningful)— but since time immortal, kills have been granted basis gun camera footage — in the absence of which, the crashing image of the ‘Tadpole’ is a very serious piece of evidence — debunking consistent lies of the PAF and ISPR on the subject.
However, let’s continue the reconstruction of events to get to the bottom of what happened that day! So, what caused a PAF fighter jet to convert into a Tadpole?
It all started with a puff!
Evidence 7: The puff
The ‘puff’ was the point of impact of a R-73 missile with the PAF aircraft. It can be seen in two videos in different capacities, setting in motion a series of events, which culminated in the formation of the tadpole.
Analysing the Charhoi video
The Charhoi
video interestingly starts with a missile streak and appearance of a small ‘puff’ of smoke after some seconds, followed by sound of twin thuds at an estimated distance of 4–5 km from the observer.
Based on the Sun’s position that day, the observer is looking at this on a heading between 290–320 degrees. The visible missile streak is indicative of an air-to-air missile, with the puff being its point of impact.
A missile streak and a subsequent puff is visible in the beginning of Charhoi video
The red circle shows the approximate position of the puff from the observer
Could it have been a contrail? Possible at higher levels as seen that day — but unlikely around 25,000 feet for a small missile.
The puff appears 4–5 seconds after the spotting of the streak in the video, followed by two sharp thuds. Is this the MiG-21 shootdown video?
No, NOT the MiG-21 being hit by an AMRAAM (the MiG-21 crash videos is available
here and
here as reference). The MiG after being hit, fell down fast, with a well-formed smoke trail and one loud sharp bang — While in the Charhoi video, no other event is noticeable around the ‘puff’ for a considerable period thereafter.
The major difference being that — the ‘puff’ indicates an explosion of a warhead which has NOT caused any upfront incendiary damage — On the other hand, a large smoke trail in the MiG video is indicative of a post-impact explosion and trauma.
Also, the twin thuds heard in the Charhoi video, indicate the explosion of the missile warhead and probable deceleration below Mach 1 barrier by the stricken aircraft (wherein as per IACCS radar info, most PAF BARCAP F-16’s were flying supersonic over Mach 1+)
Comparison of MiG-21 shootdown vs events as seen by Charhoi observer
In terms of direction, for the observer at Charhoi — the MiG-21 crash site is on a southerly course of 170 degrees or so, while the ‘puff’ is on approx. direction of 300 degrees. Hence the missile streak and the ‘puff’ in the Charhoi video are not related to the MiG-21 crash at all.
The ‘puff’ as seen in the video is the point where the proximity fuse of the R-73 has activated its warhead close to a PAF aircraft (not visible).
Sceptics will question why can’t this be an AMRAAM fired from a PAF jet? To the best my knowledge, no PAF missile was fired in this direction. On the other hand, the R-73 launch and distance covered by the missile matches perfectly with Abhi’s initial position as per the IACCS radar picture provided in Evidence No3. More on this later.
Interpretation of the streak and the subsequent puff in the Charhoi video
