Question: Syrian Civil War, can Assad win?

[PakArmyFTW]

Hello, I had a question regarding the Syrian Civil War. Can Bashar al-Assad win? I don't know much about what's happening there--what's the situation, do they have the upper hand?

Thanks.

 

[anilindia]

Yes he will win. And all terrorists will go to hell.

 

[Dr.Thrax]

No, he will lose. No way the Syrian people will forgive him for what he's done to them.

 

[Dragi]

it's been 4 years of war, Assad is still there and the army is still behind him. The FSA has ceased to be a significant military force, and ISIL is now the biggest threat to Assad. The US and it's puppets in the region are scrambling to crush ISIL as it expands to Libya, Yemen, Iraq, etc. and they know that any further action to topple Assad will strengthen ISIL. There is rumbling in the internet today that "some Western powers" are talking of re-opening diplomatic channels with the Assad government.

You could make the argument that he has already won. I think it's also safe to say the map of the middle East will not stay the way it is now. Very high probability that the Kurd's will get an official, internationally recognized state of their own in the next 10 years comprising former parts of Syria and Iraq, maybe even a little bit of Turkey. Assad will support this, it's less territory for him to control and he needs all the friends he can get, so if a Kurdish state is holding his enemies in check, then that's a bonus for him.
Moderate Sunni's might be brought to the table and given a country of their own as well. Including parts of IRaq and Syria, this " Sunnistan" could put and end to the ISIL recruitment if more moderate factions are seen as accomplishing this goal by the general Sunni population.
Less likely but possible, Palestine is another country that could see itself recognized as an independent state.

This of course is all bad for Israel and the US. The US Military Industrial complex makes Billions of dollars from death and destruction all over the planet and their ability to influence foreign governments comes from the threat of insurrection and civil war against any government that doesn't follow orders. Israel needs more land to accommodate all the Jews that are "coming home" to Israel from other parts of the world. Their ability to grab land is based on war, every time there's a war with Gaza they grab a another chunk of land for settlement expansion. Also, as the primary recipient of US military support, their economy is tied to the US military Industrial complex as well.
So these 2 parties have no interest in peace, it's up the European's and Asians to expand their influence in this part of the world and try to push positive and peaceful change, if that's even possible.

 

[Omega007]

Hello, I had a question regarding the Syrian Civil War. Can Bashar al-Assad win? I don't know much about what's happening there--what's the situation, do they have the upper hand?

Thanks.

Dude,Assad has more or less already won.Even a year ago,the situation was looking bleak for him as the various groups like Al Nasra Front ,Daesh etc were looking like unstoppable in their advance and the government forces were on the run.But now,the SAA has largely turned the tables it seems,in part due to heavy aerial bombing by the Syrian Air Force,which was a big advantage to the Syrian loyalists.And the air force could bomb these groups unchallenged since they do not have any air crafts what so ever.Good for Mr Assad and the whole Middle East.

 

[500]

it's been 4 years of war, Assad is still there and the army is still behind him.

Assad controls half of Syria and half of the army.

The FSA has ceased to be a significant military force, and ISIL is now the biggest threat to Assad.

Wrong. IS is far in desert. All major Assad's offensives are directed against rebels: Ghouta, Daraa, Aleppo...

The US and it's puppets in the region are scrambling to crush ISIL as it expands to Libya, Yemen, Iraq, etc. and they know that any further action to topple Assad will strengthen ISIL. There is rumbling in the internet today that "some Western powers" are talking of re-opening diplomatic channels with the Assad government.

IS in Libya and in Syria have virtually no connection. Just popular brand name.

You could make the argument that he has already won.

I think it's also safe to say the map of the middle East will not stay the way it is now. Very high probability that the Kurd's will get an official, internationally recognized state of their own in the next 10 years comprising former parts of Syria and Iraq, maybe even a little bit of Turkey. Assad will support this, it's less territory for him to control and he needs all the friends he can get, so if a Kurdish state is holding his enemies in check, then that's a bonus for him.

Moderate Sunni's might be brought to the table and given a country of their own as well. Including parts of IRaq and Syria, this " Sunnistan" could put and end to the ISIL recruitment if more moderate factions are seen as accomplishing this goal by the general Sunni population.
Less likely but possible, Palestine is another country that could see itself recognized as an independent state.

This of course is all bad for Israel and the US. The US Military Industrial complex makes Billions of dollars from death and destruction all over the planet and their ability to influence foreign governments comes from the threat of insurrection and civil war against any government that doesn't follow orders. Israel needs more land to accommodate all the Jews that are "coming home" to Israel from other parts of the world. Their ability to grab land is based on war, every time there's a war with Gaza they grab a another chunk of land for settlement expansion. Also, as the primary recipient of US military support, their economy is tied to the US military Industrial complex as well.
So these 2 parties have no interest in peace, it's up the European's and Asians to expand their influence in this part of the world and try to push positive and peaceful change, if that's even possible.

 

[Dragi]

the pictures are funny, but they don't say anything or make any kind of a point. Let's here your "Think tank" prediction of the future of the middle east. How do you think the situation will change for better or worse.

I can tell you that the general public here in the US is tired of seeing pictures of hundreds of children slaughtered in Gaza every few years , all done with weapons paid for by their tax dollars. So maybe peace wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen there, it's better than losing the American cash cow and then the Golan.

 

[500]

the pictures are funny, but they don't say anything or make any kind of a point.

I've answered ur major points.

Let's here your "Think tank" prediction of the future of the middle east. How do you think the situation will change for better or worse.

What can be worse than daily barrel bombs? We have a full scale civil war in Syria and Iraq.

I think in the end Syria and Iraq will turn onto some kind of Lebanon. Pseudo states, where each community has its own militias and everyone accepts that fact.

I can tell you that the general public here in the US is tired of seeing pictures of hundreds of children slaughtered in Gaza every few years , all done with weapons paid for by their tax dollars. So maybe peace wouldn't be the worst thing that could happen there, it's better than losing the American cash cow and then the Golan.

General public does not care. All they know about the Middle East is that Saddam Hussein is the capital of Lebanon.

 

[Dragi]

I think in the end Syria and Iraq will turn onto some kind of Lebanon. Pseudo states, where each community has its own militias and everyone accepts that fact.

well yes that's entirely possible, and maybe even highly likely, but I hope that's not what happens.

General public does not care. All they know about the Middle East is that Saddam Hussein is the capital of Lebanon.

half of the general public here is as stupid as a box of dirt, it's what happens when you listen ot Fox news, your brain actually shrinks. However there is growing group of people who are sick or war, sick of paying for other peoples wars all over the globe, sick of supporting the military industrial complex. They want ot spend money on rails, roads, bridges, and clean energy systems. hopefully they become the voting majority some day.

 

[hawk11]

No, he will lose. No way the Syrian people will forgive him for what he's done to them.

what? i think ur brain washed. war is always bad! and to think that your are "voting" for those terrorists from jordan and quatar, where did ur patriotism go when ur country is getting destroyed by foreigners ? facepalm, internal struggles should be dealt with internally! i dont think there isanything syrian left in you

i am extremely dissapointed