Public Opinion in Pakistan’s Tribal Regions

[sparklingway]

Public Opinion in Pakistan’s Tribal Regions​

By Peter Bergen and Patrick Doherty, New America Foundation, and Ken Ballen, Terror Free Tomorrow
September 28, 2010 |
Executive Summary

The New America Foundation and Terror Free Tomorrow have conducted the first comprehensive public opinion survey covering sensitive political issues in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan.

The unprecedented survey, from June 30 to July 20, 2010,consisted of face-to-face interviews of 1,000 FATA residents age 18 or older across 120 villages/sampling points in all seven tribal Agencies of FATA, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent, and field work by the locally-based Community Appraisal & Motivation Programme. Funding for the poll was provided by the United States Institute of Peace, a congressionally funded think tank, which had no other role in the poll. The poll was conducted before the large-scale floods that have inundated Pakistan.

Public Opposition to the U.S. Military and Drone Campaign

Nearly nine out every ten people in FATA opposethe U.S. military pursuing al-Qaeda and the Talibanin their region. Nearly 70 percent of FATA residents instead want the Pakistani military alone to fight Taliban and al-Qaeda militants in the tribal areas.

The intensity of opposition to the American military is high. While only one in ten of FATA residents think suicide attacks are often or sometimes justified against the Pakistani military and police, almost six in ten believe these attacks are justified against the U.S. military. (The United Nations has determined that many of the suicide attackers in Afghanistan hail from the Pakistani tribal regions.)1

More than three-quarters of FATA residents oppose American drone strikes. Indeed, only 16 percent think these strikes accurately target militants; 48 percent think they largely kill civilians and another 33 percent feel they kill both civilians and militants. Directed by the Central Intelligence Agency, missiles are launched from unmanned drone aircraft in the FATA region of Pakistan. President Obama has dramatically ramped up the drone program, authorizing 122 so far during his administration, more than double the number authorized by President George W. Bush during his entire eight-years in office.2 This may help account for why Obama is viewed unfavorably by 83 percent of FATA residents in our poll.

A plurality of FATA residents consider the United States to be the party most responsible for the violence that is occurring in their region today. Nearly 80 percent of the people in FATA also oppose the U.S.-led “war on terror,” and believe its real purpose is to weaken and divide the Islamic world, while ensuring American domination. Only 10 percent thought the U.S. was motivated to defeat Al-Qaeda and its allies. Similarly, three-quarters of FATA residents thought that the continuing American occupation of Afghanistan was because of its larger war on Islam or part of an effort to secure oil and minerals in the region. 11 percent said it was because of the 9/11 attacks, and just 5 percent to prevent the Taliban from returning to power.

FATA Residents Reject Al-Qaeda and the Taliban

Opposition to American policies in the region does not mean, however, that the people of FATA embrace either Al-Qaeda or the Taliban. More than three-quarters of FATA residents oppose the presence inside their region of Al-Qaeda and over two-thirds the Pakistan Taliban (60 percent oppose the Afghan Taliban led by Mullah Omar). Indeed, if Al-Qaeda or the Pakistani Taliban were on the ballot in an election, less than one percent of FATA residents said they would vote for either group.

FATA Residents Want Different American Policies in the Region

What is interesting about our findings, however, is that the intense opposition to the U.S. military and the drone program is not based on general anti-American feelings. Almost three-quarters of the people inside the tribal regions said that their opinion of the United States would improve if the U.S. increased visas for FATA residents and educational scholarships to America, withdrew the American military from Afghanistan or brokered a comprehensive peace between Israelis and Palestinians. A majority even said their opinions of the U.S. would improve a great deal. Two-thirds said that policies such as American aid for education and medical care would improve their opinions as well.

This dramatic willingness to think better of the America demonstrates a notable lack of deep-seated hostility. For many FATA residents, opposition to the U.S. is based on current American military policy, not any intractably held anti-American beliefs.

FATA Residents Decisively Back the Pakistani Army

While the United States’ military, as well as Taliban and Al-Qaeda fighters, enjoy little popular support in the region, the people overwhelmingly support the Pakistani Army. Nearly 70 percent back the Pakistani military pursuing Al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the Tribal Areas. By a significant margin, the most popular individual among the people of FATA is General Ashfaq ParvezKayani, the Pakistani Army Chief of Staff. And even though American drone attacks are strongly opposed, the public’s approval of the drones program actually almost splits even if those attacks were carried out by the Pakistani military instead. Indeed, when asked how FATA should be governed, 79 percent say it should be governed by the Pakistani military, followed by FATA becoming a separate province of Pakistan (70 percent). Becoming part of Afghanistan was the most unpopular choice.

Priorities of the people of FATA are Unemployment and Education

Unemployment is very high in FATA, with only 20 percent of respondents in our survey saying they were working full-time. Indeed, lack of jobs was chosen as the most important problem in the region by 95 percent of those surveyed. This was closely followed by lack of schools, good roads and security, poor health care and corruption of local official officials. Lesser problems to be addressed in descending order of importance were: drone attacks, Taliban and foreign fighters and problems involving refugees.

Despite the reputation that the people in FATA are socially conservative, nine out of every ten people identified lack of education and schools as their most important problem. Indeed, building new schools was chosen as a high priority for both boys and girls.

In terms of administering justice in the tribal regions, the least popular option was having justice delivered by the Taliban, with only 12 percent believing this to be very important. By contrast, nearly two-thirds chose be governed by local tribal leaders.

Views of FATA residents are not inconsistent with past Terror Free Tomorrow/New America surveys of Pakistanis generally, though the intensity of opposition to the U.S. military inside FATA is significantly higher.

For the rest of this report, including charts of selected key findings, methodology, topline questions, and demographics, please click here.

1 United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan, “Suicide attacks in Afghanistan,” September 9, 2007, http://www.unhcr.org/refworld/pdfid/49997b00d.pdf.

2 As of September 24, 2010. Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann, “The Year of the Drone,” New America Foundation, September 24, 2010, The Year of the Drone | NewAmerica.net.

Public Opinion in Pakistan?s Tribal Regions | NewAmerica.net

---------- Post added at 06:44 PM ---------- Previous post was at 06:43 PM ----------

Complete Poll results and methodology can be found at :- http://counterterrorism.newamerica.net/sites/newamerica.net/files/policydocs/FATApoll.pdf

 

[fatman17]

US survey shows massive support for PTI, Pak Army in FATA

Published: October 04, 2010

ISLAMABAD – A latest survey conducted by New American Foundation has revealed massive support for Pak Army and PTI (Pakistan Tehrik-i-Insaf) of Imran Khan in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

According to the survey people of Pakistan’s tribal areas strongly oppose the US military pursuing al-Qaeda and Taliban fighters based in their region. American drone attacks are deeply unpopular and instead residents of the FATA back Pakistani military fighting against the militants. It has also noted scant support for al-Qaeda and Pakistani Taliban in FATA.

The unprecedented survey, from June 30 to July 20, 2010, consisted of face-to-face interviews of 1,000 FATA residents aged 18 or older across 120 villages/sampling points in all seven tribal agencies of FATA, with a margin of error of 3 percent, and fieldwork by the locally based Community Appraisal +ACY- Motivation Programme. Funding for the poll was provided by the United States Institute of Peace, a congressionally funded think tank, which had no other role in the poll. The poll was conducted before the large-scale floods that inundated Pakistan.

While the United States’ military, as well as Tailban and Al-Qaeda fighters enjoy little popular support in the region, the people overwhelmingly support Pakistani Army. Nearly 70 per cent back the Pakistani military pursuing Al -Qaeda and Taliban fighters in the Tribal Areas. By a significant margin, the most popular individual among the people of FATA is General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the Pakistani Army Chief of Staff. And even though American drone attacks are strongly opposed, the public’s approval of the drones programme actually almost splits even if those attacks were carried out by the Pakistani military instead, noted the survey.

 

[Rafael]

About time friends

 

[Rafael]

Massive Support for PTI: Latest survey shows

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf stood far ahead of the other political parties by getting 28.30%, then were PMLN (10.1%), JUI (9.40%) and PPP (9.30%). These results were based on the survey conducted by The New America Foundation and Terror Free Tomorrow. It was the first comprehensive public opinion survey covering sensitive political issues in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan.

The unprecedented survey, from June 30 to July 20, 2010, consisted of face-to-face interviews of 1,000 FATA residents age 18 or older across 120 villages/sampling points in all seven tribal Agencies of FATA, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent, and field work by the locally-based Community Appraisal & Motivation Programme. Funding for the poll was provided by the United States Institute of Peace, a congressionally funded think tank, which had no other role in the poll. The poll was conducted before the large-scale floods that have inundated Pakistan.

 

[ajtr]

Pakistanis Actually Favor CIA Drone Bombings​

(Oct. 13) -- During the George W. Bush years, the CIA knew that the tribal regions of northwest Pakistan were a haven for al-Qaida and the Taliban. And yet the CIA once went eight months without bombing these regions with its unmanned drones, for fear of reprisal from the locals.

Contrast that with President Barack Obama. Last month, these same unmanned planes bombed five targets a week in tribal Pakistan. The attacks, the U.S. government argues, are working; reports have shown that al-Qaida's senior management in Pakistan has basically been wiped out, including one of Osama bin Laden's sons and the terrorist who orchestrated the Heathrow bombing plot. But many Pakistanis hate the U.S. involvement and counter that the majority of the dead are civilians.The Pakistani media reported that 700 civilians died from drone attacks in 2009 alone.
If that's the case, then Brian Williams' study should, well, shock and awe. Williams is a professor at the University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth and the author of a work, out this month, that argues that the civilians in these tribal regions actually favor the drone attacks.

"I went into this study with an open mind. I didn't know where the data would take me," Williams tells AOL News. "And what I found is that the people [in those regions] are in some sense rooting for the drones."

Since terrorist groups took over the largely autonomous northwest regions of Pakistan, they've imposed a strict, fundamentalist law, closed all-girls schools and executed those who dared to voice their opposition. "The Taliban and al-Qaida have turned their back on the Pakistani people," Williams says. So he went to work with a Pakistani colleague, devising a survey that asked hundreds of these civilians what they thought of their lives and the CIA drone attacks.

The study concludes that 52 percent of respondents felt the strikes were accurate; 58 percent thought they did not cause anti-American sentiment; 60 percent felt militants were "damaged" by the strikes; and 70 percent thought the Pakistani military should carry out its own strikes against the terrorists. The civilians in the tribal regions "see the drones as their liberator," the study says.

Though his poll is in stark contrast to another recent published work that showed overwhelming displeasure from tribal residents with the drone attacks, Williams' contribution seems to jibe with a third study, released earlier this year, that looked at the accuracy of the drone attacks. That study says that in 2010, one civilian dies for every 10 militants in Pakistan. By extension, then, the civilians are pleased.

"Look, I'm not defending the drones," Williams says. He just hopes that studies like his can move the discourse "into this gray, middle zone."

 

[ajtr]

Drone attacks: challenging some fabrications ​

—Farhat Taj

The people of Waziristan are suffering a brutal kind of occupation under the Taliban and al Qaeda. Therefore, they welcome the drone attacks

There is a deep abyss between the perceptions of the people of Waziristan, the most drone-hit area and the wider Pakistani society on the other side of the River Indus. For the latter, the US drone attacks on Waziristan are a violation of Pakistani’s sovereignty. Politicians, religious leaders, media analysts and anchorpersons express sensational clamour over the supposed ‘civilian casualties’ in the drone attacks. I have been discussing the issue of drone attacks with hundreds of people of Waziristan. They see the US drone attacks as their liberators from the clutches of the terrorists into which, they say, their state has wilfully thrown them. The purpose of today’s column is, one, to challenge the Pakistani and US media reports about the civilian casualties in the drone attacks and, two, to express the view of the people of Waziristan, who are equally terrified by the Taliban and the intelligence agencies of Pakistan. I personally met these people in the Pakhtunkhwa province, where they live as internally displaced persons (IDPs), and in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

I would challenge both the US and Pakistani media to provide verifiable evidence of civilian ‘casualties’ because of drone attacks on Waziristan, i.e. names of the people killed, names of their villages, dates and locations of the strikes and, above all, the methodology of the information that they collected. If they can’t meet the challenge, I would request them to stop throwing around fabricated figures of ‘civilian casualties’ that confuse people around the world and provide propaganda material to the pro-Taliban and al Qaeda forces in the politics and media of Pakistan.

I pose that challenge because no one is in a position to give a correct estimate of how many individuals have been killed so far in drone attacks. On the basis of American media estimates, 600 to 700 ‘civilian population’ have been killed. The Pakistani government, pro-Taliban political parties like Jamaat-e-Islami, Jamiat-e-Ulema-e-Islam, Tehrik-e-Insaf, and the media are quoting the same figure. Neither the government of Pakistan nor the media have any access to the area and no system is in place to arrive at precise estimates. The Pakistani government and media take the figure appearing in the American media as an admission by the American government. The US media too do not have access to the area. Moreover, the area is simply not accessible for any kind of independent journalistic or scholarly work on drone attacks. The Taliban simply kill anyone doing so.

The reason why these estimates about civilian ‘casualties’ in the US and Pakistani media are wrong is that after every attack the terrorists cordon off the area and no one, including the local villagers, is allowed to come even near the targeted place. The militants themselves collect the bodies, burry the dead and then issue the statement that all of them were innocent civilians. This has been part of their propaganda to provide excuses to the pro-Taliban and al Qaeda media persons and political forces in Pakistan to generate public sympathies for the terrorists. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) or other militants have never admitted to the killing of any important figure of al Qaeda or the TTP. One exception is the killing of Baitullah Mehsud that the TTP reluctantly admitted several days after his death. According to the people of Waziristan, the only civilians who have been killed so far in the drone attacks are women or children of the militants in whose houses/compounds they hold meetings. But that, too, used to happen in the past. Now they don’t hold meetings at places where women and children of the al Qaeda and TTP militants reside. Moreover, in this case too no one is in a position to give even an approximate number of the women and children of the terrorists killed in drone attacks.

The people of Waziristan are suffering a brutal kind of occupation under the Taliban and al Qaeda. It is in this context that they would welcome anyone, Americans, Israelis, Indians or even the devil, to rid them of the Taliban and al Qaeda. Therefore, they welcome the drone attacks. Secondly, the people feel comfortable with the drones because of their precision and targeted strikes. People usually appreciate drone attacks when they compare it with the Pakistan Army’s attacks, which always result in collateral damage. Especially the people of Waziristan have been terrified by the use of long-range artillery and air strikes of the Pakistan Army and Air Force. People complain that not a single TTP or al Qaeda member has been killed so far by the Pakistan Army, whereas a lot of collateral damage has taken place. Thousands of houses have been destroyed and hundreds of innocent civilians have been killed by the Pakistan Army. On the other hand, drone attacks have never targeted the civilian population except, they informed, in one case when the funeral procession of Khwazh Wali, a TTP commander, was hit. In that attack too, many TTP militants were killed including Bilal (the TTP commander of Zangara area) and two Arab members of al Qaeda. But some civilians were also killed. After the attack people got the excuse of not attending the funeral of slain TTP militants or offering them food, which they used to do out of compulsion in order to put themselves in the TTP’s good books. “It (this drone attack) was a blessing in disguise,” several people commented.

I have heard people particularly appreciating the precision of drone strikes. People say that when a drone would hover over the skies, they wouldn’t be disturbed and would carry on their usual business because they would be sure that it does not target the civilians, but the same people would run for shelter when a Pakistani jet would appear in the skies because of its indiscriminate firing. They say that even in the same compound only the exact room — where a high value target (HVT) is present — is targeted. Thus others in the same compound are spared. The people of Waziristan have been complaining why the drones are only restricted to targeting the Arabs. They want the drones to attack the TTP leadership, the Uzbek/Tajik/Turkmen, Punjabi and Pakhtun Taliban. I have heard even religious people of Waziristan cursing the jihad and welcoming even Indian or Israeli support to help them get rid of the TTP and foreign militants. The TTP and foreign militants had made them hostages and occupied their houses by force. The Taliban have publicly killed even the religious scholars in Waziristan.

I have yet to come across a non-TTP resident of Waziristan who supports the Taliban or al Qaeda. Till recently they were terrified by the TTP to the extent that they would not open their mouth to oppose them. But now, having been displaced and out of their reach, some of them speak against them openly and many more than before in private conversations. They express their fear of the intelligence agencies of Pakistan whenever speaking against the Taliban. They see the two as two sides of the same coin.

What we read and hear in the print and electronic media of Pakistan about drone attacks as a violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty or resulting in killing innocent civilians is not true so far as the people of Waziristan are concerned. According to them, al Qaeda and the TTP are dead scared of drone attacks and their leadership spends sleepless nights. This is a cause of pleasure for the tormented people of Waziristan.

Moreover, al Qaeda and the Taliban have done everything to stop the drone attacks by killing hundreds of innocent civilians on the pretext of their being American spies. They thought that by overwhelming the innocent people of Waziristan with terror tactics they would deter any potential informer, but they have failed. On many occasions the Taliban and al Qaeda have killed the alleged US spies in front of crowds of hundreds, even thousands of tribesmen. Interestingly, no one in Pakistan has raised objection to killings of the people of Waziristan on charges of spying for the US. This, the people of Waziristan informed, is a source of torture for them that their fellow Pakistanis condemn the killing of the terrorists but fall into deadly silence over the routine murders of tribesmen accused of spying for the US by the terrorists occupying their land.

The writer is a research fellow at the Centre for Interdisciplinary Gender Research, University of Oslo and a member of Aryana Institute for Regional Research and Advocacy. She can be reached at bergen34@yahoo.com

 

[silent hill]

if pakistanis supported drone attacks, its like indians supporting mumbai attacks

 

[Gin ka Pakistan]

Pakistan want these Drones from US and can do better job then US in WOT

 

[Omar1984]

Maybe the AOL reporter is confusing Pakistanis with some other people.

These people are Pakistanis and they dont look very happy:

From Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to Sindh from Punjab to Balochistan, majority of Pakistanis are against drone bombings in Pakistan's soil.

 

[Aatishbaz]

Leaving aside the public sentiments, which are surely based on propaganda and Media reporting; the drone attacks in FATA are favoured by the tribals themselves. The collateral damage from these attacks has remained minimal and they are quite precise. However, a better strategy would have been to deliver this tech to Pakistani Army...results then would have been much more encourging!!!!

 

[mughaljee]

I personally feel, public sentiments and govt stance are different.,

 

[Hindutvadi]

Pakistan want these Drones from US and can do better job then US in WOT

Even more feasible approach which i feel is to let Pak army operate drones [ under US supervision],with out ToT and after job is done give \'em back to uncle Sam. Both USA and Pak will get their wishes fullfilled.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

I have trouble taking Farhat Taj's work on opinions in the Tribal areas as credible, given that her writing on the issue displays a clear bias towards a particular POV and agenda, and her claims tend to border on the fantastic - no one, regardless of how much they hate the Taliban, would want missiles raining down on locations close to them or their loved ones without warning, and posing a clear threat to their lives.

I have to wonder who William's associate in Pakistan was, possibly the same people who work with Farhat Taj?

 

[Spring Onion]

I have trouble taking Farhat Taj's work on opinions in the Tribal areas as credible, given that her writing on the issue displays a clear bias towards a particular POV and agenda, and her claims tend to border on the fantastic - no one, regardless of how much they hate the Taliban, would want missiles raining down on locations close to them or their loved ones without warning, and posing a clear threat to their lives.

I have to wonder who William's associate in Pakistan was, possibly the same people who work with Farhat Taj?

she hardly comes out of her drawing room. They hired some opportunists who prepare write ups for them and she tweets these write ups to make an article.

besides she is an American propaganda tool.

on the last para

BTW there is one person based in US who is stanched anti-Pakistan Army and spares any chance to spit venom against Pakistan army.

According to him she is a convert

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

if pakistanis supported drone attacks, its like indians supporting mumbai attacks

The US government and military-intelligence establishment have plenty of people on their payroll in the media (and in Pakistan) who would concoct 'studies' and 'opinion/analysis' to promote propaganda that furthers perceived US interests.

In many cases, journalists in reputable media outlets like the NYT and WaPo primarily based their stories on 'sources' within the US government and military/intelligence. Its not hard to see how these 'sources' are used to plant propaganda in the media, and in fact this deliberate propaganda by the US establishment is quite obvious in the fallacious reporting about Pakistan often carried in the US media.