PTI Election Tactics for 2018 ( Suggestions )

[Imad.Khan]

The 2018 elections are getting close and for PTI to win they need to concentrate on getting new seats. These are my suggestions for PTI to win more seats.

KPK is already in the bag and i know this from my friends and relatives in KPK but more seats can be had from there as well. So lets look from where can these new seats can come.

KPK = 35 Seats

In KPK PTI needs to focus on Charsada District (2 seats), Malakand Division (where PTI had only managed 3 out of 8 seats) and Hazara Division (where PTI had managed only 1 seat out of 7)

PTI performance in 2013 = 18

Punjab = 148 Seats

Lets divide Punjab into North Punjab with 104 seats and South Punjab with 43 seats and compare with what PTI's existing standing there. From North PTI needs to focus on Lahore with 13 seats (where PTI had only managed 1 seat), Faisalabad with 11 seats ( where PTI didn't get a single seat ) and Rawalpindi with 7 seats (PTI had only managed 3 seats which includes the seat of Sheikh Rashid). 2nd priority should be given to Gujranwala (7 seats), Sargodha (5 seats), Kasur (5 seats), Sialkot (5 seats) and Okara (5 seats). So the break up would be

North Punjab

Tier 1

Lahore = 13 Seats
Faisalabad = 11 Seats
Rawalpindi = 7 Seats
Islamabad = 2 Seats

Tier 2

Gujranwala = 7 seats
Sargodha = 5 seats
Kasur = 5 seats
Sailkot = 5 seats
Okara = 5 seats

South Punjab has a total of 43 seats PTI currently holds 2 seats plus the seat of an independent from Javed Hashmi's old seat. But from the reports i am getting especially Multan and Layyah area that people are getting very anti-PML-N. PTI needs to tap those anti-PML-N voters and channel that sentiment into votes for PTI instead of other parties. If PTI manages that then alot of seats will be coming their way.

Sindh = 61 Seats

Sindh is a hard nut to crack with the votes always going to the Wadera of the area, so breaking into rural Sindh will be very difficult, if not impossible. The only option is getting seats from Karachi and Hyderabad in Urban Sindh. Last time PTI only managed to get a single seat from Karachi. Now with MQM in shambles and PSP still not fully mobilized, PTI has a chance to make in-roads there and hopefully grab some seats. Again focus should be on Karachi and Hyderabad.

Karachi = 20 seats
Hyderabad = 4 seats

For Interior Sindh, PTI will only achieve to make in-roads if it can get electables or if they can somehow get Fatima Bhutto to join PTI.

Balochistan = 14 seats

Just like rural Sindh, Balochistan is also controlled by Sardars, but there are areas where PTI can try and make in-roads, especially in Quetta, Zhob and other Pukhtoon majority areas of North Balochistan, like Ziarat, Nushki and Killa Abdullah. These areas have been typically the play gorund of PkMAP and JUI-F.

Potential seats = 6

Fata = 11 Seats

Currently PTI holds just 1 seat from FATA while 6 seats are held by independents. Again PTI needs to use the pukhtoon card to get more seats. The independents from FATA usually side with the party that is in a position to form government.

These are my suggestions, would appreciate contribution from other members

@Arsalan @notorious_eagle @PakSword @war&peace @Verve @Zibago @Zarvan @The Sandman @Realistic Change @Syed1. @Emmie @Oscar @Horus

 

[war&peace]

Yeah now PTI should focus on the preparation for the election and whatever fine tuning is required in the structure should be done on priority basis. Select good candidates who are not only clean from all corruption charges but also hard working and popular in their electorate.

 

[notorious_eagle]

PTI is doing a pretty good job preparing for the next elections.

In some of the constituencies the party has completed what they call ‘the scientific survey’ of the constituency. Primarily, the survey is a popularity check of political leaders representing a specific constituency.

“The PTI has assessed voting patterns of the general elections of 2008 and 2013 and local bodies elections in various constituencies of central Punjab,” a senior party leader said, adding, “Through fresh sampling, a randomly selected group of over 3,500 individuals from one NA constituency are asked about their possible choice of candidate for the 2018 elections.”

“Electables are being focused in only those constituencies where PTI candidates were at number three or even lower,” the leader added.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1446625/pti-focusing-central-punjab-turn-tide-next-election/

This is the way to go. Conduct scientific surveys in every constituency, see which candidates have the best chances of winning, and than allot them the tickets. This is something that was severely lacking in the last elections for PTI. They need to give tickets to strong candidates who know how to fight the election. Rigging usually takes on the last day, this is why PTI needs strong candidates that can make sure this does not happen.

 

[Imad.Khan]

PTI is doing a pretty good job preparing for the next elections.

In some of the constituencies the party has completed what they call ‘the scientific survey’ of the constituency. Primarily, the survey is a popularity check of political leaders representing a specific constituency.

“The PTI has assessed voting patterns of the general elections of 2008 and 2013 and local bodies elections in various constituencies of central Punjab,” a senior party leader said, adding, “Through fresh sampling, a randomly selected group of over 3,500 individuals from one NA constituency are asked about their possible choice of candidate for the 2018 elections.”

“Electables are being focused in only those constituencies where PTI candidates were at number three or even lower,” the leader added.

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1446625/pti-focusing-central-punjab-turn-tide-next-election/

This is the way to go. Conduct scientific surveys in every constituency, see which candidates have the best chances of winning, and than allot them the tickets. This is something that was severely lacking in the last elections for PTI. They need to give tickets to strong candidates who know how to fight the election. Rigging usually takes on the last day, this is why PTI needs strong candidates that can make sure this does not happen.

3500 is a very small number considering that majority of the constituencies have over 100K plus voters.

 

[notorious_eagle]

3500 is a very small number considering that majority of the constituencies have over 100K plus voters.

There is no way you can survey all 500K voters, this is why you use a Sample. This is why pollsters use a survey, randomly selecting a sample.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size_determination

 

[Imad.Khan]

There is no way you can survey all 500K voters, this is why you use a Sample. This is why pollsters use a survey, randomly selecting a sample.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sample_size_determination

In my view a sample size of less than 1% would be highly unreliable. So minimum the aim should have been of 1% sample size. Also the survey should have been broken up to different section to understand the voting pattern.

1. Men ( Above 30yrs )
2. Women ( Above 30yrs )
3. Youth ( 18yrs - 30yrs )

Now i am not saying that this wasn't done, but as its not mentioned thats why i am presuming that it wasn't taken into consideration.

 

[Kabira]

Pray to allah that Nawaz is disqualified for 10 years. That will dent popularity of Nawaz in punjab a bit and some N leagues MNA may look to change sides.

look how popular PPP used to be in punjab, from 61% of votes in 1977 to 10% in 2013. I think social media/media exposed their performance in Sindh. And their revenge like tussle with MQM to ruin Karachi didn't go well with punjab people. Looks like PPP have not forgotten their old ways, for them politics of revenge/petty things come before well being of country or even Sindh/Karachi. Thats why Bhutto couldn't accept Mujib rule and said tum udher hum idhar.

Unfortunately for them people are more aware now what is happening in rest of the country.

 

[Imad.Khan]

Pray to allah that Nawaz is disqualified for 10 years. That will dent popularity of Nawaz in punjab a bit and some N leagues MNA may look to change sides.

look how popular PPP used to be in punjab, from 61% of votes in 1977 to 10% in 2013. I think social media/media exposed their performance in Sindh. And their revenge like tussle with MQM to ruin Karachi didn't go well with punjab people. Looks like PPP have not forgotten their old ways, for them politics of revenge/petty things come before well being of country or even Sindh/Karachi. Thats why Bhutto couldn't accept Mujib rule and said tum udher hum idhar.

Unfortunately for them people are more aware now what is happening in rest of the country.

Where did you get this graph from? Would be interesting to see the graph of other parties as well.

 

[The Sandman]

Sindh = 61 Seats

As you said Sindh is a hard nut to crack imo he should forget it he don't have enough time to convince Sindhis (cuz bhutto zinda hai bs) now he should focus on Hyderabad and Karachi there's a good chance of PTI getting seats in Karachi now that PPP and MQM are almost finished there.

Balochistan = 14 seats

This is the area i wanted them to focus a lot! PTI can still try tho.

Where did you get this graph from? Would be interesting to see the graph of other parties as well.

It's from Dawn.

oh btw nice work in the OP

 

[Kabira]

The 2018 elections are getting close and for PTI to win they need to concentrate on getting new seats. These are my suggestions for PTI to win more seats.

View attachment 407939

KPK is already in the bag and i know this from my friends and relatives in KPK but more seats can be had from there as well. So lets look from where can these new seats can come.

KPK = 35 Seats

In KPK PTI needs to focus on Charsada District (2 seats), Malakand Division (where PTI had only managed 3 out of 8 seats) and Hazara Division (where PTI had managed only 1 seat out of 7)

PTI performance in 2013 = 18

Punjab = 148 Seats

Lets divide Punjab into North Punjab with 104 seats and South Punjab with 43 seats and compare with what PTI's existing standing there. From North PTI needs to focus on Lahore with 13 seats (where PTI had only managed 1 seat), Faisalabad with 11 seats ( where PTI didn't get a single seat ) and Rawalpindi with 7 seats (PTI had only managed 3 seats which includes the seat of Sheikh Rashid). 2nd priority should be given to Gujranwala (7 seats), Sargodha (5 seats), Kasur (5 seats), Sialkot (5 seats) and Okara (5 seats). So the break up would be

North Punjab

Tier 1

Lahore = 13 Seats
Faisalabad = 11 Seats
Rawalpindi = 7 Seats
Islamabad = 2 Seats

Tier 2

Gujranwala = 7 seats
Sargodha = 5 seats
Kasur = 5 seats
Sailkot = 5 seats
Okara = 5 seats

South Punjab has a total of 43 seats PTI currently holds 2 seats plus the seat of an independent from Javed Hashmi's old seat. But from the reports i am getting especially Multan and Layyah area that people are getting very anti-PML-N. PTI needs to tap those anti-PML-N voters and channel that sentiment into votes for PTI instead of other parties. If PTI manages that then alot of seats will be coming their way.

Sindh = 61 Seats

Sindh is a hard nut to crack with the votes always going to the Wadera of the area, so breaking into rural Sindh will be very difficult, if not impossible. The only option is getting seats from Karachi and Hyderabad in Urban Sindh. Last time PTI only managed to get a single seat from Karachi. Now with MQM in shambles and PSP still not fully mobilized, PTI has a chance to make in-roads there and hopefully grab some seats. Again focus should be on Karachi and Hyderabad.

Karachi = 20 seats
Hyderabad = 4 seats

For Interior Sindh, PTI will only achieve to make in-roads if it can get electables or if they can somehow get Fatima Bhutto to join PTI.

Balochistan = 14 seats

Just like rural Sindh, Balochistan is also controlled by Sardars, but there are areas where PTI can try and make in-roads, especially in Quetta, Zhob and other Pukhtoon majority areas of North Balochistan, like Ziarat, Nushki and Killa Abdullah. These areas have been typically the play gorund of PkMAP and JUI-F.

Potential seats = 6

Fata = 11 Seats

Currently PTI holds just 1 seat from FATA while 6 seats are held by independents. Again PTI needs to use the pukhtoon card to get more seats. The independents from FATA usually side with the party that is in a position to form government.

These are my suggestions, would appreciate contribution from other members

@Arsalan @notorious_eagle @PakSword @war&peace @Verve @Zibago @Zarvan @The Sandman @Realistic Change @Syed1. @Emmie @Oscar @Horus

Interesting article from 2013

ISLAMABAD:

Imran Khan’ party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), despite finishing third in terms of seats, received the second largest number of votes in the general election, data released on Monday showed.

PTI polled 7.7 million votes in the general election to win 28 National Assembly seats, but Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which led the outgoing government, took 32 seats with only 6.9 million ballots.

Turnout at the election, which marked the first time a civilian government had completed a five-year term and handed over power at the ballot box, was 55 per cent, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) said – up from 44 per cent in the 2008 poll.

In total, 46.2 million people voted compared with 36.6 million five years ago, despite Taliban threats to attack polling stations on election day.

Both PTI and PPP were well behind Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), led by two-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif, which took 126 seats having received 14.9 million votes, according to the ECP.

PML-N officials say they have persuaded 18 independent lawmakers to join the party, taking them comfortably beyond the 136 seats they need to be sure of a majority in the lower house.

In the National Assembly, 272 seats are elected directly. A further 70 seats reserved for women and minorities are distributed to parties according to the proportion of general seats they win.

Where did you get this graph from? Would be interesting to see the graph of other parties as well.

google images,

 

[SQ8]

They will not win unless they find a popular non-corrupt figure to be a major part of their campaign.

 

[Canuck786]

They don't realize it but there won't be the face of Imran Khan left before 2018 election as per media reporting on the Nadia Mirza show. Apparently there are two more cases being brought forwarded that according to media Imran Khan wont escape even if he escapes the ones already in litigation. After which all the faces left will be the lotas from Musharaf era and PPP eras. Not a good recipe to win..

 

[Musafir117]

Match is fixed already what they need to collect more electable no matter lotta or corrupt or gangsters molvie, secular, than here you go

 

[Kabira]

They don't realize it but there won't be the face of Imran Khan left before 2018 election as per media reporting on the Nadia Mirza show. Apparently there are two more cases being brought forwarded that according to media Imran Khan wont escape even if he escapes the ones already in litigation. After which all the faces left will be the lotas from Musharaf era and PPP eras. Not a good recipe to win..

If both get disqualified even then it will hurt Nawaz more politically because facts are

1. Imran Khan never held any public office. Even if he paid less tax that will not mean much for general public. Unless they prove that he did take money from donation given for Hospital which I doubt.

2. Nawaz family apartments are located in London which mean money went from Pakistan and if he's disqualified then people will believe he did something wrong to hide properties.

 

[Arsalan]

Pray to allah that Nawaz is disqualified for 10 years. That will dent popularity of Nawaz in punjab a bit and some N leagues MNA may look to change sides.

look how popular PPP used to be in punjab, from 61% of votes in 1977 to 10% in 2013. I think social media/media exposed their performance in Sindh. And their revenge like tussle with MQM to ruin Karachi didn't go well with punjab people. Looks like PPP have not forgotten their old ways, for them politics of revenge/petty things come before well being of country or even Sindh/Karachi. Thats why Bhutto couldn't accept Mujib rule and said tum udher hum idhar.

Unfortunately for them people are more aware now what is happening in rest of the country.

HAHAHAHHAHAAAAA

So getting DISQUALIFIED on CORRUPTION charges will dent his reputation, A BIT, in your eyes? Just a tiny bit!!
In other words, NS he kuda ho gya! Na aggy kuch socho na peechy