Possibilities of Covid-19 not from China

[Song Hong]

China has open up Wuhan lab. We wait for USA to open up Fort Detrict. Historically, Fort Detrict has been conducting horrible inhuman activities, resulting to large numbers of fatalities.

Lots of scientist who opted out were found to be dead in unnatural circumstances.

I bet Fort Detrict is 731 lab x 100. It will only be revealed after USA collapse.

Frank Olson - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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[Viet]

Did Vietman ever make any research on your bats? I guess the answer is no. How do you know bats in other countries don't have similar Covid virus? Chinese researchers studied bats a lot because as I said China is technically more advanced than most countries.

Have nothing to do with chinese researchers and how advanced they are. Bats are the source of virus for human species especially variants of coronavirus. That’s a welknown fact.
Of course I don’t know whether bats in other regions share more coronavirus generics that currently causes suffering to human. If human are Bats, then we are well off bats have very strong immune system they don’t become sick.

 

[kuge]

that test in Italy was false positive to regular flu. it is amazing to see how much circular logic these people will get up to.

See the articles i had posted - factual scientific papers - these folks cant even respond with basic scientific facts.

why? becos that didnt fit in your narratives?

 

[Mista]

1) Why are the majority of the cases in China detected in Wuhan and the surrounding small cities in Hubei?

2) If it comes from overseas, why do cities like Beijing/Shanghai, which are much more connected to global trade and travel, have lesser cases than smaller cities in Hubei? Some of those smaller cities in Hubei don't even have an airport for direct international flights.

3) Even if you don't detect it, your hospitals can be overwhelmed within weeks. Wuhan and other Hubei cities are not the most connected in global trade/travel. If the virus comes from overseas, cities like Singapore, HK or Tokyo would see a spike in patients in our hospitals first before Wuhan or other Hubei cities.
We are more connected globally, more densely populated, and have a larger population share of elderly. Moreover, most of our cases detected initially in Singapore were from Hubei.

4) Mutation. Seem like the virus mutates rapidly; multiple strains have detected in different countries. Yet, the earliest cases detected last year have similar strain as one originally from Wuhan. If the virus comes from overseas, the world would've detected multiple strains from the start.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

All advance country probably know Covid 19 not from China and likely USA. They can take out blood samples in their storage and check.

We did and none was found before mid Dec 2019.

Covid-19 Likely in U.S. in Mid-December 2019, CDC Scientists Report

The new coronavirus infected people in the U.S. in mid-December 2019, a few weeks before it was officially identified in China and about a month earlier than public health authorities found the first U.S. case, according to a government study.

www.wsj.com

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

I never really discounted the theory that Covid was lying dormant for months or even years around the world until the right conditions emerged to make it spread. It probably started in China but that is a pretty big question mark, maybe it didn't. There was a report that said it was in Europe first. I mean it has to start somewhere, then it went from Europe to China and then for whatever reason it explodes in China.

It's probably because of somebody going somewhere remote and getting exposed to something like this situation of bats living in an abandoned mineshaft:

Lethal Pneumonia Cases in Mojiang Miners (2012) and the Mineshaft Could Provide Important Clues to the Origin of SARS-CoV-2 - PMC

With the COVID-19 pandemic reaching its worst heights, people are interested in the origin of SARS-CoV-2. This study started with two important questions: first, were there any similar atypical pneumonia outbreaks, even on a smaller level, reported ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[kankan326]

1) Why are the majority of the cases in China detected in Wuhan and the surrounding small cities in Hubei?

2) If it comes from overseas, why do cities like Beijing/Shanghai, which are much more connected to global trade and travel, have lesser cases than smaller cities in Hubei? Some of those smaller cities in Hubei don't even have an airport for direct international flights.

3) Even if you don't detect it, your hospitals can be overwhelmed within weeks. Wuhan and other Hubei cities are not the most connected in global trade/travel. If the virus comes from overseas, cities like Singapore, HK or Tokyo would see a spike in patients in our hospitals first before Wuhan or other Hubei cities.
We are more connected globally, more densely populated, and have a larger population share of elderly. Moreover, most of our cases detected initially in Singapore were from Hubei.

4) Mutation. Seem like the virus mutates rapidly; multiple strains have detected in different countries. Yet, the earliest cases detected last year have similar strain as one originally from Wuhan. If the virus comes from overseas, the world would've detected multiple strains from the start.

1) At the early stage of outbreak, hypothetically to say virus was imported from other country, the virus spread should start from few spots. As the number of virus carriers(humans or goods) is very limited. The spots number is also very limited. Usually there is only one spot. Luck decides where the spot will be. Bigger cities have bigger chance. But it is not necessarily to be the chosen one. In 2019, Wuhan held world military Olympics. as this period time, Wuhan was an international city.

2) Samely, HK, Singapore or Tokyo had good luck because as I said the virus carriers number was limited. Another explanation is the virus was inactive in high temperature environment. If it originated from tropical region, people could barely feel it. Take India as an expample, we all know India had far more infected people than it told even before the big outbreak, the local hospitals were not overwhelmed until new mutated virus came out.

3) Fact that all found strains were from Wuhan doesn't mean Wuhan was the origin of the virus. There is also a possibility the virus didn't mutate during the period it was taken from original place to Wuhan.

 

[Mista]

1) At the early stage of outbreak, hypothetically to say virus was imported from other country, the virus spread should start from few spots. As the number of virus carriers(humans or goods) is very limited. The spots number is also very limited. Usually there is only one spot. Luck decides where the spot will be. Bigger cities have bigger chance. But it is not necessarily to be the chosen one. In 2019, Wuhan held world military Olympics. as this period time, Wuhan was an international city.

2) Samely, HK, Singapore or Tokyo had good luck because as I said the virus carriers number was limited. Another explanation is the virus was inactive in high temperature environment. If it originated from tropical region, people could barely feel it. Take India as an expample, we all know India had far more infected people than it told even before the big outbreak, the local hospitals were not overwhelmed until new mutated virus came out.

3) Fact that all found strains were from Wuhan doesn't mean Wuhan was the origin of the virus. There is also a possibility the virus didn't mutate during the period it was taken from original place to Wuhan.

Your reasons aren't strong enough to counter my points though. World military Olympics don't bring that much traffic. Thousands, maybe 10000+ max. Singapore is an economic hub and few hundred thousand people cross our land/air/sea borders everyday from all continents. We import almost everything (including food) from overseas too. Beijing is also an economic hub and people from all over China travel to/from Beijing everyday on a large scale. It is much more connected to the world than Wuhan or other small cities in Hubei. The same can be said for Shanghai, HK, Tokyo etc. And all detected cases in SG in the early days came from Hubei. You say all are coincidence?

I don't believe Wuhan or other small cities in Hubei are more susceptible to an overseas virus than the cities I mentioned. Nothing is definitive, but the probabilities all point towards Wuhan/Hubei.

FYI I don't blame China. It's a natural disaster which can happen just anywhere. In fact, I think China did a very great job and showed the rest of the world an example on how to contain the virus. The world would've been in a much worse position if Covid-19 started elsewhere, and governments would've 'gave up' and went for herd immunity if they didn't see that a lockdown is actually effective elsewhere.

 

[kankan326]

Your reasons aren't strong enough to counter my points though. World military Olympics don't bring that much traffic. Thousands, maybe 10000+ max. Singapore is an economic hub and few hundred thousand people cross our land/air/sea borders everyday from all continents. We import almost everything (including food) from overseas too. Beijing is also an economic hub and people from all over China travel to/from Beijing everyday on a large scale. It is much more connected to the world than Wuhan or other small cities in Hubei. The same can be said for Shanghai, HK, Tokyo etc. And all detected cases in SG in the early days came from Hubei. You say all are coincidence?

I don't believe Wuhan or other small cities in Hubei are more susceptible to an overseas virus than the cities I mentioned. Nothing is definitive, but the probabilities all point towards Wuhan/Hubei.

FYI I don't blame China. It's a natural disaster which can happen just anywhere. In fact, I think China did a very great job and showed the rest of the world an example on how to contain the virus. The world would've been in a much worse position if Covid-19 started elsewhere, and governments would've 'gave up' and went for herd immunity if they didn't see that a lockdown is actually effective elsewhere.

Learn some probability theories. If the sample number is very limited, small probability events often happen. The virus carrier number is small at beginning. It could be brought to anywhere on the earth meanwhile other places, be it HK, Sg, or Tokoy, are safe. Only if the sample number is big enough, these cities would be inevitably infected.

It is possible that the virus mutated after it arrived in Wuhan and became more contagious and deadly. Just like what happened in UK, South Africa and India. Generally speaking the virus is becoming more and more dangerous. It was dangerous in Wuhan, more dangerous in UK, and now extremly dangerous in Inida. Since we all admit UK and India are not origin of it. Why you are so sure Wuhan is? How could you know there wasn't a phase of less dangerous before Wuhan?

 

[Mista]

Learn some probability theories. If the sample number is very limited, small probability events often happen. The virus carrier number is small at beginning. It could be brought to anywhere on the earth meanwhile other places, be it HK, Sg, or Tokoy, are safe. Only if the sample number is big enough, these cities would be inevitably infected.

It is possible that the virus mutated after it arrived in Wuhan and became more contagious and deadly. Just like what happened in UK, South Africa and India. Generally speaking the virus is becoming more and more dangerous. It was dangerous in Wuhan, more dangerous in UK, and now extremly dangerous in Inida. Since we all admit UK and India are not origin of it. Why you are so sure Wuhan is? How could you know there wasn't a phase of less dangerous before Wuhan?

It's possible, but what's the probability? Every point I mentioned earlier happened to be coincidences? Somehow much less susceptible Wuhan is the 'chosen' one?

Is it more probable that it originated from Hubei, or is it more probable that it originated elsewhere?

 

[Song Hong]

HIV was from USA and gay community, because it was first found there. Cant be elsewhere. Singapore is very connected. How come HIV not found in Singapore but in USA?

By the way Syphillis was sure from America.

 

[kankan326]

It's possible, but what's the probability? Every point I mentioned earlier happened to be coincidences? Somehow much less susceptible Wuhan is the 'chosen' one?

Is it more probable that it originated from Hubei, or is it more probable that it originated elsewhere?

When the sample number is really small. High probability event isn't really "high". For example, if the virus carrier was a soldier from outside China, he was more like to land in Wuhan than Beijing or anywhere.

 

[Mista]

When the sample number is really small. High probability event isn't really "high". For example, if the virus carrier was a soldier from outside China, he was more like to land in Wuhan than Beijing or anywhere.

How is the sample number small? At this point you're grasping at straws to deflect.

 

[kankan326]

How is the sample number small? At this point you're grasping at straws to deflect.

Because there were not many infected people on the earth when the virus just emerged. And the number of those who could travel to other countries was futher smaller.

 

[denel]

why? becos that didnt fit in your narratives?

no it did not fit with your emperor's narrative.