Pakistan's Situation and Probable Solutions

[volatile]

Army is not absolved of any damages they inflicted on the country. However, whenever a government is judged it is evaluated as a package. Economy plays vital role for any nation. In my opinion economy has been better in armed forces tenure against civilian rule. Zia's tenure saw lowest GDP growth, which was higher then any civilian government. By the principle of induction and deduction by Bertrand Russell, military rule has been better in Pakistan. This does not mean that I am not for democracy but yes I am definitely against democrazy. Nevertheless, if you probe into each country's development and growth, it will not be wrong to say that it has been because of some sort of dictatorship. Pure democracy has always created chaos.

It is a misconception that army invites Jihadis. That was the era of Afghan invasion which is over long ago. In that context also, Jihadis were created by those who speak against the most. This has been accepted publicly by Hillary Clinton.
No country is our enemy, but each country is their own friend, we are our own enemies.

Arms export is large enough to offset defence budget.

The misconception of defence budget is that it goes into pockets of armed forces. I would recommend googling for a show by Mubashir Lucman who explained this in great detail.

Seems your observation and recommendations are mainly based on Hamid Mir and Marvi Simrand type journalist and you own research is missing.

No doubt, but who is violating this principle armed forces or the politicians. In armed forces their system is working, it is the political induction in PIA, LESCO, Steel mill, police, bureaucracy, education, etc etc which has brought these institution to the brink of disaster.

Whose consensus? It has been two months these political parties have not been able to reach a consensus on Panama Leaks. They can reach consensus on their personal benefits, like life time benefits for MPAs & MNAs. They can reach the consensus on increasing pays of MNAs and MPAs 10 times. But they cannot reach a consensus on foreign policy. Because each has different vested interest. If these policies are made on the basis of national interest. It will automatically align itself with what Armed Forces desire.

By the way you must google for the thesis written by armed forces personnel, during the Staff Courses, on international relations, foreign policy, etc. You will be able to compare their competence against politicians, who some time do not know spelling of foreign policy.

I was watching a tv show once where the anchor asked Farid Paracha of JI, that politicians talk of billions in budget can you tell me how many zeros are there in a billion. Mr Paracha was speechless.

Pakistan was envisaged as a nation second to none. But unfortunately beggars cannot carve their own destiny. Our political leadership has begged so much that we as a nation have lost self respect, self esteem and up righteousness

Not interfering in each others work is the ideal thing, provided objective is same. Best example is there was no interference in anyone work in AZ's tenure. Objective was same i..e make money.

My dear respect is not demanded but commanded through self example and conduct. Same goes for assuming the command. Person has to be competent enough to assume command. Look at the history of world, mutiny and revolt originated against a weak commander. If political leadership is competent enough, working in national interest and spotless; there will never be a takeover.


Who is promoting them? the same people who called them terrorist. all the political parties declared them terrorist and did not invite them in their london conference. And now what they have been partners to PMLN, PPP, JI, JUI and even at some places TI.

Kh Asif recently tweeted that energy requirement is aroun 19K and production is 16K. Why is he not talking about installed capacity. In Musharaf's days Pakistan had reached install capacity of 20K MW. More then our todays requirement.

Not our cup of tea.

Thanks for putting so much effort in answering me . I have read things with open mind but not just to respond to you so bear with me .

I will put constitution for your kind attention.
Part XII: Miscellaneous
Chapter 2: Armed Forces.
644[
243. Command of Armed Forces.-
(1) The Federal Government shall have control and command of the Armed Forces.

(2) Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing provision, the Supreme Command of the Armed Forces shall vest in the President.

(3) The President shall subject to law, have power-
(a) to raise and maintain the Military, Naval and Air Forces of Pakistan; and the Reserves of such Forces; and
(b) to grant Commissions in such Forces.

(3) The President shall, on advice of the Prime Minister, appoint-
(a) the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee;
(b) the Chief of the Army Staff;
(c) the Chief of the Naval Staff; and
(d) the Chief of the Air Staff,
and shall also determine their salaries and allowances.

http://www.pakistani.org/pakistan/constitution/part12.ch2.html
] 644
244 Oath of Armed Forces.
Every member of the Armed Forces shall make oath in the form set out in the Third Schedule.

245 Functions of Armed Forces.
651[(1)] 651 The Armed Forces shall, under the directions of the Federal Government, defend Pakistan against external aggression or threat of war, and, subject to law, act in aid of civil power when called upon to do so.

652[
(2) The validity of any direction issued by the Federal Government under clause (1) shall not be called in question in any court.

Direction of Fed Govt ? Interesting right .

1958–1969 Ayub Khan`s coupe
He formed Convention Muslim League which included Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who would later become Pakistan's first democratically elected Prime Minister. Tensions with India flared in the 1960s and a brief border skirmish was fought near the Rann of Kutch area during April 1965. The War began after the failure of Operation Gibraltar on 5 August 1965.

Remarks
PPP was born with Bhutto being the leader . War with India pushed us back with any chances of normalization (Debateable point) . Baghdad pact resulted in Isolation locally making Russian our enemy .

1969-1971 Yahya Khan
During the rule of Yahya Khan, the people of East Pakistan protested against various political and economic disparities that had been imposed on them by West Pakistan and massive civil unrest broke out in East Pakistan.

Remarks
We lost half of Pakistan , Same Bhutto who was planted and groomed make sure that happened .
The PAF and Navy's fighter pilots have voluntarily served in Arab nations' militaries against Israel in the Yom Kippur War (1973). Who authorized this and in the end we make Israel our enemy .

1977–1999 Zia Ul Haq
In 1977, a coup, Operation Fair Play, was staged by General Zia ul-Haq and the government was overthrown. Bhutto was hanged resulted in deepening Provisional rivalry between Punjab and Sindh . In 1980s, the Pakistan Armed Forces co-operated with the United States to provide arms, ammunition and intelligence assistance to Afghan rebels who were fighting the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.Rising tensions with neighboring USSR in their involvement in Afghanistan, Pakistani intelligence community, mostly the ISI,systematically coordinated the U.S. resources to the Afghan mujahideen and foreign fighters against the Soviet Union's presence in the region.

Remarks
USSR enemy ,India Enemy ,Afg turned into chaos ,Mujhadein , AK47 ,Relegious fanatics were born , NS was born

1999–2008 Musharaf
In October 1999, after the Kargil Conflict ended with the unconditional withdrawal of the Pakistani forces from the Indian controlled peaks, the Pakistan Army overthrew a democratically elected government once more, resulting in additional sanctions being applied against Pakistan, leading to General Pervez Musharraf coming to power in a bloodless coup.

Remarks
Kargil great adventure ,Lost Siachen in early years ,NS thrown into exile ,WOT joined . U turn on Taliban ,Turn Peaceful country into war zone .

1. OVer all from History we learned ,all Political parties were made in Era of Dictators ,(We are expecting them to give results ?) Right . Latest case is Imran Khan sb . For Pak GDP to grow following things contributed in this .

GDP = Consumer spending + Govt Spending on projects + Investments (AID) + Exports
View attachment 307038

In Mushi time special quota for US exports were given to Pak for period of 5 years . other than this its steady climb

From 1957 to 1971 Max Aids coming thru ,From 1980 to 1990 flow of aid coming thru ,from 2000 to 2010 Aid coming ,What do you say to that ?
My friend we are not enemy for any one but thing is we are repeating the same mistake over and over again ,this time nothing will be left ,saw two Marshal Laws my self saw my society from Liberal to conservative to enlighted moderation ,So what do you say .All our Foreign and interior policies are made some where else not by representatives of people which in reality is not why simply all these are created to fullfill agenda .

 

[Panther 57]

Thanks for putting so much effort in answering me . I have read things with open mind but not just to respond to you so bear with me .

I will put constitution for your kind attention.
Part XII: Miscellaneous
Chapter 2: Armed Forces.
644[
243. Command of Armed Forces.-
(1) The Federal Government shall have control and command of the Armed Forces.

(2) Without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing provision, the Supreme Command of the Armed Forces shall vest in the President.

(3) The President shall subject to law, have power-
(a) to raise and maintain the Military, Naval and Air Forces of Pakistan; and the Reserves of such Forces; and
(b) to grant Commissions in such Forces.

(3) The President shall, on advice of the Prime Minister, appoint-
(a) the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee;
(b) the Chief of the Army Staff;
(c) the Chief of the Naval Staff; and
(d) the Chief of the Air Staff,
and shall also determine their salaries and allowances.

http://www.pakistani.org/pakistan/constitution/part12.ch2.html
] 644
244 Oath of Armed Forces.
Every member of the Armed Forces shall make oath in the form set out in the Third Schedule.

245 Functions of Armed Forces.
651[(1)] 651 The Armed Forces shall, under the directions of the Federal Government, defend Pakistan against external aggression or threat of war, and, subject to law, act in aid of civil power when called upon to do so.

652[
(2) The validity of any direction issued by the Federal Government under clause (1) shall not be called in question in any court.

Direction of Fed Govt ? Interesting right .

1958–1969 Ayub Khan`s coupe
He formed Convention Muslim League which included Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, who would later become Pakistan's first democratically elected Prime Minister. Tensions with India flared in the 1960s and a brief border skirmish was fought near the Rann of Kutch area during April 1965. The War began after the failure of Operation Gibraltar on 5 August 1965.

Remarks
PPP was born with Bhutto being the leader . War with India pushed us back with any chances of normalization (Debateable point) . Baghdad pact resulted in Isolation locally making Russian our enemy .

1969-1971 Yahya Khan
During the rule of Yahya Khan, the people of East Pakistan protested against various political and economic disparities that had been imposed on them by West Pakistan and massive civil unrest broke out in East Pakistan.

Remarks
We lost half of Pakistan , Same Bhutto who was planted and groomed make sure that happened .
The PAF and Navy's fighter pilots have voluntarily served in Arab nations' militaries against Israel in the Yom Kippur War (1973). Who authorized this and in the end we make Israel our enemy .

1977–1999 Zia Ul Haq
In 1977, a coup, Operation Fair Play, was staged by General Zia ul-Haq and the government was overthrown. Bhutto was hanged resulted in deepening Provisional rivalry between Punjab and Sindh . In 1980s, the Pakistan Armed Forces co-operated with the United States to provide arms, ammunition and intelligence assistance to Afghan rebels who were fighting the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.Rising tensions with neighboring USSR in their involvement in Afghanistan, Pakistani intelligence community, mostly the ISI,systematically coordinated the U.S. resources to the Afghan mujahideen and foreign fighters against the Soviet Union's presence in the region.

Remarks
USSR enemy ,India Enemy ,Afg turned into chaos ,Mujhadein , AK47 ,Relegious fanatics were born , NS was born

1999–2008 Musharaf
In October 1999, after the Kargil Conflict ended with the unconditional withdrawal of the Pakistani forces from the Indian controlled peaks, the Pakistan Army overthrew a democratically elected government once more, resulting in additional sanctions being applied against Pakistan, leading to General Pervez Musharraf coming to power in a bloodless coup.

Remarks
Kargil great adventure ,Lost Siachen in early years ,NS thrown into exile ,WOT joined . U turn on Taliban ,Turn Peaceful country into war zone .

1. OVer all from History we learned ,all Political parties were made in Era of Dictators ,(We are expecting them to give results ?) Right . Latest case is Imran Khan sb . For Pak GDP to grow following things contributed in this .

GDP = Consumer spending + Govt Spending on projects + Investments (AID) + Exports
View attachment 307038

View attachment 307040

In Mushi time special quota for US exports were given to Pak for period of 5 years . other than this its steady climb

From 1957 to 1971 Max Aids coming thru ,From 1980 to 1990 flow of aid coming thru ,from 2000 to 2010 Aid coming ,What do you say to that ?
My friend we are not enemy for any one but thing is we are repeating the same mistake over and over again ,this time nothing will be left ,saw two Marshal Laws my self saw my society from Liberal to conservative to enlighted moderation ,So what do you say .All our Foreign and interior policies are made some where else not by representatives of people which in reality is not why simply all these are created to fullfill agenda .

yes we are repeating mistakes and not learning from past mistakes. but when those who should do right do not understand people opt for lesser evil and support those who can at least bridge the gap if cant fill it

 

[Rain]

Fundamental issue IMHO is totally ignored by the author: We are stretching our feet far beyond our capacity. We must overcome our infatuations with Strategical depth it is beyond our capacity At the Moment we will only kill our-self if we persists.
Secondly we should go slow on disputes with India and Iran. Kashmir is already on slow burner lets reduce the temperature further so that world community(minus India) is not get over antagonized.
Thirdly we should focus on civilian institutions capacity building and economy strengthening.
Playing with Judiciary or Parliament will not solve or reduce our problems it will further complicate it.
True political leadership in inapt and corrupt but if the free fair elections happen regularly it will cleanse Parliament of corrupt and inapt leaders will be discorded.
Political Engineering always backfired and it will backfire in future too we must learn our lesson now and stop thinking about messing in political and economy issues.

Once our civilian institution start performing economy will grow and Pakistan will be able to assert itself more effectively in matters related to Kashmir and Afghanistan.

 

[livingdead]

there is no reason to believe that pak army can solve your issues... it will still face same enemies but will have additional job of running your country... directly.
also your country will be sanctioned at every international forum, will lose whatever sympathy or help it gets.. even the chinese will be annoyed. You will end up in a worse situation than you already are.
It will also corrupt your own army... (although you wont be able to see or comment about it)..

 

[ghazi52]

 

[Skyliner]

Forwarded as Received _______________________

Dear Friends

Here I have put together some random thoughts on the present security situation for anyone who is interested to read.

1. Pakistan is probably going through an alarmingly highest security threat-in-the-final-making to its existance. Some of the indicators are: Renewed US intimidation (F-16 Sales, Drone Attack and Do-more Syndrome etc); Strategic Cosiness with Iran and India etc.

2. Western forces are repeating the same old game plan. Earlier Saudi Arabia was the 'Favourite Pawn' now they encouraging Iran to take up that role. The objective is to continue accentuating *controlled-chaos and instability* in the Middle East, Afghanistan and by extension in Pakistan.

3. The emerging security challenges are grave if read with the internal security situation; poor and corrupt governance; and societal desensitisation and dysfunction.

4. In the next stand-off in the making, one could find Pakistan Military engaged in security quagmire on 5-fronts.

A. Indian Front,

B. Afghan Front,

C. Iranian Front

D. Internal Security Front (TTP, Diash, MQM, Sectarian outfits etc) and,

E. Corruption & Bad Governance Front (Accentuated by Nawaz Sharif, Zardari, Fazalur Rehman, Altaf, Asfand Yar etc nexus to maintain status quo, particularly in the aftermath of Panama Leak fiasco).

5. Front A, B &C can be operationalized only if desired effects and end-state have been created on Front D& E.

6. Time is running short for Pakistan. What is the solution. No perfect viable solution could be put in place even by the Army alone. May be an Army-Judiaciary-Beaurocracy backed Interim Government could retard the downward slide of Pakistan.

*A Way Forward*

7. The present political set up is a part of the problem. First essential objective should be to bring an end to present political set up in one way or the other before anything good can be done. In this way you could mitigate the security threat that can precipitate in Front-E and thus lead to "a strategic paralysis" at the national decision making level.

8. Some Random options to get rid of present political set up may be:

A. A petition is moved in the Supreme Court against the corrupt Government. Supreme Court restrains the Government to function and sets up a high-power commission under an an interim government (fully backed by Military) to clean up the mess, make needed constitutional amendments and seek fresh mandate through election (if warranted)

Or

B. The President of Pakistan is pursuaded to issue an *'Emergency Ordinance'*restraining NS Government on the allegation of massive corruption (It may be a Semi or Extra Constitutional Ordinance); and allowing setting up of an interim government and a high power commission. No worry even if the Ordanance is challenged in the Supreme Court.

OR

C. There is a successful *'No Confidence'* move against Nawaz Sharif in the Parliament. The new PM is pursuaded to dissolve Assemblies and go for a fresh election under a neutral set up and reformed electoral laws.

OR

D. A "Conditional Amenesty Deal" with Nawaz Sharif if he agrees to peacefully dissolves the Assemblies, sets up an intetim government and steps down from the seat of PM. * (It is the Recommended Option) *.

*Last Ditch Option*

9. If the present political set up could not be changed then the only last ditch option may be:

A. Army takes over. Declares holding of a "National Refrendum" instantly to seek public approval of take over by military (for 2-3 years) with a mandate: to clean up the country from corruption; all forms of terrorism; make constitutional amendments; and hold free and fair elections (Preferred: Presidential Form of Government).

B. In order to shut up and neutralise international opposition and condemnation, General Raheel should address the nation on TV/ Radio and ask people to come out in street in mass at a *specified time* to demonstrate Public approval of Army's take over, followed by holding National Refrendum in 30 days..

C. As an alternate measure, General Raheel may rather ask people who disapprove Army's take over to come out on the street. (There would be very few of the like of Aasma Jhangir ect).

*Note.*

This may be the last option for the Army to change the status quo. Otherwise nation should be ready for an "Iraq or Syria like or even worst situation" in next 1-2 years.

I sincerely pray I am totally wrong in my analysis.

Name withheld.......
Author holds a doctorate in Defence Strategy
@WebMaster @Spring Onion @fatman17 @Irfan Baloch @F.O.X @Zarvan @Rashid Mahmood

Yeh bat sab nay zaroor sune ho ge: CHALTEE CHEEZ MAY UNGLEE MAT KARO*
We are going in the right direction slowly slowly let it be.After 2-3 years IA ill be here and you will be too, and we both gona witness that nothing will be like Syria and Iraq but far better situation than we are in today.

And don't act like a kid(you could have definitely witnessed musharaf era) as you don't know in the past what was the excuse of a coup (the same that they will have refrendum in 1 month/3 months and they last for at least 10 to 15 years), a coup is never the solution of any kind of political problem let them do what they are suppose to.

 

[mikkix]

Include Saudis in cpec.
Unsettle afghanistan.
Build strategic relation with oman is a must to encircle...
Indonesia and malaysia are the keys to counter encircle of pakistan.
Include iran in cpec which is not looking possible so covertly support movements in irani sunnis of baluchistan to tackle the issues.

 

[Panther 57]

Yeh bat sab nay zaroor sune ho ge: CHALTEE CHEEZ MAY UNGLEE MAT KARO*
We are going in the right direction slowly slowly let it be.After 2-3 years IA ill be here and you will be too, and we both gona witness that nothing will be like Syria and Iraq but far better situation than we are in today.

And don't act like a kid(you could have definitely witnessed musharaf era) as you don't know in the past what was the excuse of a coup (the same that they will have refrendum in 1 month/3 months and they last for at least 10 to 15 years), a coup is never the solution of any kind of political problem let them do what they are supposed to.

IA chaltay chaltay sub kuch un kay bank accounts main ho ga, aur nuclear arsenal amrika kay pass ho ga, aur har paida honay wala bacha girvi ho ga.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

From the Turkish experience, it can be safely said that no matter how grave the situation is don't go for a military government option. Six century old Osmanli Jihan Devlet was lost in six years of coup government. When the coup happened it was a 13 million square km empire including the entire petroleum resources of the Middle East. Every body including the Ulema were all rejoicing at the dethroning of Sultan Abdul Hamid Han. When the coup mongers were ultimately done everything was lost for the coup governments are ripe for all sorts of treacheries which can't be imagined even in a half baked civilian government. Only when Anatolia was under the foreign occupation they understood the genius of the Sultan's policies and practices, but it was too late..

Current successes of the Pak army is taking place under a civilian government. What type of arrangements they have chalked out among themselves may be debated. IMHO it'll bring no good for them if this arrangement is fatally disturbed..

 

[zeeshan Saadiq Khan]

First of all Iran and Afghanistan both don't have the stomach to stand up to Pakistan.
Second Indian military force is under going a massive shift with regard to their equipment and engineering assets. From Russian to American equipment. Indian military might is most vulnerable at the moment .
More over if Pakistan is a mere pony before Indian might then why did not they started an all out war after attack on Indian parliament and after Mumbai attack.

 

[DF@PDF]

In my opinion army may not be thinking on these lines, at least from now.

But with Rising Pressure from USA as we have seen Recently, things can Change pretty Quickly in this matter, No?

 

[Panther 57]

But with Rising Pressure from USA as we have seen Recently, things can Change pretty Quickly in this matter, No?

Pakistani politics is very versatile and our politicians are too egoistic and selfish, therefore anything can happen any time. Musharraf never had intention of taking over, but he had to. Thanks to his aides who took decision for him.

 

[Tps43]

In my opinion army may not be thinking on these lines, at least from now.

RS went to a xyz seminar and people asked there who will end this mess RS replied I will make sure to end this once for all! so something is cooking .