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Pakistan's prospects of 5% growth rate at risk, says World Bank report
By Our Correspondent
Published: October 5, 2016
15SHARES
SHARE TWEET
Pakistan’s economic growth is expected to increase gradually, and the economy is projected to grow by 5.4% in next fiscal year 2017-2018. PHOTO: FILE

ISLAMABAD: Prospects of Pakistan’s economy growing at a decent pace of 5% a year are at risk due to delays in the implementation of the $46-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, warns a new World Bank report released Tuesday.

“A delay in the completion of CPEC projects, as evident from the first year’s performance, and an inability of the government to mobilise revenues and rationalise expenditures can affect investment and hurt economic growth,” noted the World Bank in its biannual ‘South Asia Economic Focus Fall 2016’ report.

UK assures Pakistan GSP Plus-like trade package

The report also highlighted the issue of growing tension in relation to Kashmir between India and Pakistan; two nuclear powers that have fought four wars and which it added “is watched with concern”.

Political economy risks are widespread across South Asia and uncertainty, more broadly, needs to be managed with a view to creating an attractive environment for foreign and domestic investment alike, it added.

The Washington-based lending agency said that gradual growth trend is underpinned by increased public investment supported by CPEC. It has projected that Pakistan’s economy may grow at a rate of 5% during the current fiscal year 2016-17 – 0.7% below the official target.

Pakistan needs more than 7% annual economic growth rate to create sufficient jobs for new entrants.

Public investment can expect a boost from projects related to the CPEC agreement, but remains subject to uncertainty stemming from potential implementation delays, it added.

The report is a reminder to the October 2015 study conducted by the Institute of Policy Reforms (IPR) that highlighted that the medium-term economic framework prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made no provision for a big rise in government investment in the next two years to create room for timely completion of the $11-billion infrastructure projects under CPEC.

The IPR study did not work out the impact of administrative weaknesses that are equally hurting the implementation of CPEC projects.

“China has also started raising concerns over delay in the implementation of CPEC projects, notably energy sector transmission and generation projects,” said officials involved in execution of these projects.

“Except for two coal-based and one wind-farm projects, most of the priority energy projects of the CPEC are facing delays,” according to background discussions with the Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform officials and others working on these schemes.

“Chief ministers showed their confidence on the progress of CPEC projects in the CPEC summit held on August 29 but some elements and anti-CPEC forces are spreading misgivings and misguiding people of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P),” said Minister of Planning, Development and Reform Ahsan Iqbal on Tuesday, while chairing a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure.

The World Bank report said industrial production indicators remained volatile except in case of Pakistan where the outlook had been slightly more positive on the back of large-scale manufacturing and construction activities, driven by infrastructure and energy projects falling under the CPEC agreement.

“However, recent delays may water down expectations,” it added.

In Pakistan, private investment has traditionally grown more slowly than public investment, however, the sluggishness of private fixed capital investment is reaching new levels.

IMF confident Pakistan can now handle mild economic shocks

Pakistan’s economic growth is expected to increase gradually, and the economy is projected to grow by 5.4% in next fiscal year 2017-2018.

The report added that this growth rate will primarily be driven by infrastructure projects under the CPEC and public investment.

These projects are expected to accelerate growth in the domestic construction industry and increase electricity generation. Improved electricity availability will support growth in the industry and services sectors, but expected slowdown in the implementation would water down these expectations, it said.

Moreover, it said Pakistan’s current account deficit was expected to widen during next two financial years; the key contributor to this will be a widening trade deficit due to moderate growth in exports and rapid growth in CPEC-related imports. However, continuous growth in remittances and financial flows will help in financing the current account deficit.

The report also projects Pakistan’s fiscal deficit to remain at 4.2% at the end of the fiscal year – 0.4% higher than the Ministry of Finance target.

“The improvement in fiscal accounts hinges upon the government’s will to persist with fiscal consolidation through revenue mobilisation efforts and expenditure rationalisation,” it cautioned.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 5th, 2016.
 
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Pakistan's prospects of 5% growth rate at risk, says World Bank report
By Our Correspondent
Published: October 5, 2016
15SHARES
SHARE TWEET
Pakistan’s economic growth is expected to increase gradually, and the economy is projected to grow by 5.4% in next fiscal year 2017-2018. PHOTO: FILE

ISLAMABAD: Prospects of Pakistan’s economy growing at a decent pace of 5% a year are at risk due to delays in the implementation of the $46-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) projects, warns a new World Bank report released Tuesday.

“A delay in the completion of CPEC projects, as evident from the first year’s performance, and an inability of the government to mobilise revenues and rationalise expenditures can affect investment and hurt economic growth,” noted the World Bank in its biannual ‘South Asia Economic Focus Fall 2016’ report.

UK assures Pakistan GSP Plus-like trade package

The report also highlighted the issue of growing tension in relation to Kashmir between India and Pakistan; two nuclear powers that have fought four wars and which it added “is watched with concern”.

Political economy risks are widespread across South Asia and uncertainty, more broadly, needs to be managed with a view to creating an attractive environment for foreign and domestic investment alike, it added.

The Washington-based lending agency said that gradual growth trend is underpinned by increased public investment supported by CPEC. It has projected that Pakistan’s economy may grow at a rate of 5% during the current fiscal year 2016-17 – 0.7% below the official target.

Pakistan needs more than 7% annual economic growth rate to create sufficient jobs for new entrants.

Public investment can expect a boost from projects related to the CPEC agreement, but remains subject to uncertainty stemming from potential implementation delays, it added.

The report is a reminder to the October 2015 study conducted by the Institute of Policy Reforms (IPR) that highlighted that the medium-term economic framework prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) made no provision for a big rise in government investment in the next two years to create room for timely completion of the $11-billion infrastructure projects under CPEC.

The IPR study did not work out the impact of administrative weaknesses that are equally hurting the implementation of CPEC projects.

“China has also started raising concerns over delay in the implementation of CPEC projects, notably energy sector transmission and generation projects,” said officials involved in execution of these projects.

“Except for two coal-based and one wind-farm projects, most of the priority energy projects of the CPEC are facing delays,” according to background discussions with the Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform officials and others working on these schemes.

“Chief ministers showed their confidence on the progress of CPEC projects in the CPEC summit held on August 29 but some elements and anti-CPEC forces are spreading misgivings and misguiding people of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P),” said Minister of Planning, Development and Reform Ahsan Iqbal on Tuesday, while chairing a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure.

The World Bank report said industrial production indicators remained volatile except in case of Pakistan where the outlook had been slightly more positive on the back of large-scale manufacturing and construction activities, driven by infrastructure and energy projects falling under the CPEC agreement.

“However, recent delays may water down expectations,” it added.

In Pakistan, private investment has traditionally grown more slowly than public investment, however, the sluggishness of private fixed capital investment is reaching new levels.

IMF confident Pakistan can now handle mild economic shocks

Pakistan’s economic growth is expected to increase gradually, and the economy is projected to grow by 5.4% in next fiscal year 2017-2018.

The report added that this growth rate will primarily be driven by infrastructure projects under the CPEC and public investment.

These projects are expected to accelerate growth in the domestic construction industry and increase electricity generation. Improved electricity availability will support growth in the industry and services sectors, but expected slowdown in the implementation would water down these expectations, it said.

Moreover, it said Pakistan’s current account deficit was expected to widen during next two financial years; the key contributor to this will be a widening trade deficit due to moderate growth in exports and rapid growth in CPEC-related imports. However, continuous growth in remittances and financial flows will help in financing the current account deficit.

The report also projects Pakistan’s fiscal deficit to remain at 4.2% at the end of the fiscal year – 0.4% higher than the Ministry of Finance target.

“The improvement in fiscal accounts hinges upon the government’s will to persist with fiscal consolidation through revenue mobilisation efforts and expenditure rationalisation,” it cautioned.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 5th, 2016.
It's so bizzare that all of Pakistan's economic hopes are being pinned on a mere $46BN investment/loan (even if it was 2-3 times this figure it would seem insufficent).

Little is ever discussed about the structural issues within the Pakistani economy (ease of doing business, devlopment of high quality human capital, increased availability of financing etc etc). CPEC seems to be a plaster applied to the Pakistani ecnomy that hides some true gremlins and allows the establishment to escape any accountability. When one hears about the Chinese/German/US/Indian/French/etc economy their long/medium term prospects are never framed through the prisim of the success (or not) of a single infrastructure investement project and especially one as limited in scope as CPEC.

@Nilgiri @MilSpec @anant_s @Vergennes @Stephen Cohen
 
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It's so bizzare that all of Pakistan's economic hopes are being pinned on a mere $46BN investment/loan (even if it was 2-3 times this figure it would seem insufficent).

Little is ever discussed about the structural issues within the Pakistani economy (ease of doing business, devlopment of high quality human capital, increased availability of financing etc etc). CPEC seems to be a plaster applied to the Pakistani ecnomy that hides some true gremlins and allows the establishment to escape any accountability. When one hears about the Chinese/German/US/Indian/French/etc economy their long/medium term prospects are never framed through the prisim of the success (or not) of a single infrastructure investement project and especially one as limited in scope as CPEC.

@Nilgiri @MilSpec @anant_s @Vergennes @Stephen Cohen

I have actually talked about this many times on this forum. Some Pak members are aware of it (@Syed.Ali.Haider esp comes to mind), others are living in denial/extreme hope.

I actually calculated the net addition to GCF for Pakistan in a best case scenario....and I was countered with stock market indices :hitwall:.

Others are putting their eggs in the transfer/multiplier effect basket (though most don't even know thats what its called).....without realising that's very dicey, unpredictable and quite long term....and requires the "software" upgrade (human capital improvement) much more than just loan based hardware injection

So I am just going to sit back and watch from now on.
 
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Three are 3 ways to jump start an economy. Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, and/or Reforms. For actual growth at a minimum 2 have to be present.

Structural reforms simply explained is the way the market needs the government to work. And in order for a government to reform is has to understand the system, understand where and why the system has failed and offer solutions with the ability to carry them out.

Difficulties to reform come from a variety of reasons; vested interests, uncertainty combined with populist revolt, competing views, quantification, and leadership.

No Pakistani government has been able to understand the system. Or the governments do understand the system and have kept it contained to keep out a potential new social class, keeping power to the 22 original families.

Reforms will put downward pressures on wages and income. With rising prices for basic necessities. Necessities which hurt the less fortunate who survive paycheck to paycheck, and are the most vulnerable to changes? Is there a setup to help mitigate the hardship they face?

Short term effects are easy to measure, people notice them, while longer terms are forecasted. But the social pressures pushing back against reforms that have raised the prices for sugar, petrol, and pharmaceuticals with political protests can and often due bring down governments. Why would governments take chances when statistically there is no significance in structural reforms to bring about greater outputs?

What is the future? How do you measure it? And is it, the future, dependent on fate or destiny? Is the potential to see 5% growth dependent on the ability to increase literacy rates or will growth happen regardless?

The way to combat this is selling the reforms to an educated mature electorate. No two people in the world will have similar views, perhaps some in hundreds of billions. The government needs to show that it too is in the fight, it knows the struggle of working families and is willing to bucket down themselves. Not driving around in hundred police car conveys or having police officers protecting peacocks is a good start.


Reforms require the willingness to sacrifice and be willing to see through it for a chance at a brighter future. The possibility of a lining up of variables that each can contribute to it are difficult to come by, mostly because they require a leader willing to see them through. And that itself is the hardest to come by.

When one hears about the Chinese/German/US/Indian/French/etc economy their long/medium term prospects are never framed through the prisim of the success (or not) of a single infrastructure investement project and especially one as limited in scope as CPEC.

CPEC is a project every nation has to complete in order to take off. The US's own initial version, could be, the transcontinental railroad and telegraph. Bringing cattle from the midwest to Chicago's slaughterhouses, manufactured goods from the northeast went to SanFran for export to East Asia, and the speed at which ideas were able to spread.

CPEC seems more of, the same, connecting the far reaches of Pakistan with either Gwadar or Karachi for the export of products produced by the cottage industries. Believe it or not the road/ rail system doesn't make it easy for transporting goods. You knew that already. Just connecting Karachi to Islamabad with one long motorway isn't going to help the other 70 million people that aren't living next to the Indus River.

The economy is estimated to be losing 2% annually due to load-shedding, which CPEC is supposed to combat with numerous power plants. Floods and water supply with Dams.

But corruption costs Pakistan and estimated $43 Billion a year. A $49 Billion loan//investment seems insignificant.
 
.
Three are 3 ways to jump start an economy. Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, and/or Reforms. For actual growth at a minimum 2 have to be present.

Structural reforms simply explained is the way the market needs the government to work. And in order for a government to reform is has to understand the system, understand where and why the system has failed and offer solutions with the ability to carry them out.

Difficulties to reform come from a variety of reasons; vested interests, uncertainty combined with populist revolt, competing views, quantification, and leadership.

No Pakistani government has been able to understand the system. Or the governments do understand the system and have kept it contained to keep out a potential new social class, keeping power to the 22 original families.

Reforms will put downward pressures on wages and income. With rising prices for basic necessities. Necessities which hurt the less fortunate who survive paycheck to paycheck, and are the most vulnerable to changes? Is there a setup to help mitigate the hardship they face?

Short term effects are easy to measure, people notice them, while longer terms are forecasted. But the social pressures pushing back against reforms that have raised the prices for sugar, petrol, and pharmaceuticals with political protests can and often due bring down governments. Why would governments take chances when statistically there is no significance in structural reforms to bring about greater outputs?

What is the future? How do you measure it? And is it, the future, dependent on fate or destiny? Is the potential to see 5% growth dependent on the ability to increase literacy rates or will growth happen regardless?

The way to combat this is selling the reforms to an educated mature electorate. No two people in the world will have similar views, perhaps some in hundreds of billions. The government needs to show that it too is in the fight, it knows the struggle of working families and is willing to bucket down themselves. Not driving around in hundred police car conveys or having police officers protecting peacocks is a good start.


Reforms require the willingness to sacrifice and be willing to see through it for a chance at a brighter future. The possibility of a lining up of variables that each can contribute to it are difficult to come by, mostly because they require a leader willing to see them through. And that itself is the hardest to come by.



CPEC is a project every nation has to complete in order to take off. The US's own initial version, could be, the transcontinental railroad and telegraph. Bringing cattle from the midwest to Chicago's slaughterhouses, manufactured goods from the northeast went to SanFran for export to East Asia, and the speed at which ideas were able to spread.

CPEC seems more of, the same, connecting the far reaches of Pakistan with either Gwadar or Karachi for the export of products produced by the cottage industries. Believe it or not the road/ rail system doesn't make it easy for transporting goods. You knew that already. Just connecting Karachi to Islamabad with one long motorway isn't going to help the other 70 million people that aren't living next to the Indus River.

The economy is estimated to be losing 2% annually due to load-shedding, which CPEC is supposed to combat with numerous power plants. Floods and water supply with Dams.

But corruption costs Pakistan and estimated $43 Billion a year. A $49 Billion loan//investment seems insignificant.
CPEC sounds like a good idea to an outsider however the claims of it (transformational to the entire Pak economy and it's macro performance) does not match up with the reality of its roll out or the pledged funds. I could just about believe the tall claims if $490bn had been promised but "just" $46/49bn seems like a drop in the ocean and if implementation is already slipping this figure is going to be eaten away simply because of time delays.

Power, roads, rail, ports etc are not cheap, they are highly capital intensive ventures and for hundreds of new projects spread the length and breadth of Pakistan I simply don't see how one can buy the claims.

I have actually talked about this many times on this forum. Some Pak members are aware of it (@Syed.Ali.Haider esp comes to mind), others are living in denial/extreme hope.

I actually calculated the net addition to GCF for Pakistan in a best case scenario....and I was countered with stock market indices :hitwall:.

Others are putting their eggs in the transfer/multiplier effect basket (though most don't even know thats what its called).....without realising that's very dicey, unpredictable and quite long term....and requires the "software" upgrade (human capital improvement) much more than just loan based hardware injection

So I am just going to sit back and watch from now on.
I could only be led to believe the multiplier argument IF China was actually investing in the human capital of Pakistan but in reality they are bringing in their own workers, creating their own colonies and doing little to exploit the local work force. It would have be far more beneficial if Pakistan had been able to negotiate an offset clause in this investment wherein each Chinese company had to hire X % of locals or invest in creating high tech technical colleges/centres.

I'm not sure creating a transit route through one's country will see much of a multiplier effect. If there was a huge manufacturing base in Pakistan that would be the case but it has already been established that the greatest utility of CPEC will be for China to ship their goods through the Arabian sea.
 
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CPEC sounds like a good idea to an outsider however the claims of it (transformational to the entire Pak economy and it's macro performance) does not match up with the reality of its roll out or the pledged funds. I could just about believe the tall claims if $490bn had been promised but "just" $46/49bn seems like a drop in the ocean and if implementation is already slipping this figure is going to be eaten away simply because of time delays.

Power, roads, rail, ports etc are not cheap, they are highly capital intensive ventures and for hundreds of new projects spread the length and breadth of Pakistan I simply don't see how one can buy the claims.


I could only be led to believe the multiplier argument IF China was actually investing in the human capital of Pakistan but in reality they are bringing in their own workers, creating their own colonies and doing little to exploit the local work force. It would have be far more beneficial if Pakistan had been able to negotiate an offset clause in this investment wherein each Chinese company had to hire X % of locals or invest in creating high tech technical colleges/centres.

I'm not sure creating a transit route through one's country will see much of a multiplier effect. If there was a huge manufacturing base in Pakistan that would be the case but it has already been established that the greatest utility of CPEC will be for China to ship their goods through the Arabian sea.

You make it sound as if Indian economy has been this miracle that the world has been waiting for. What good is your 7 % growth rate if your poverty is bigger than all africa combined ? Your entire society and per capita is run by 60 - 70 billionaires while rest of the society is in doldrums .

I would rather have 5 % growth of Pakistan , much less poverty and a bigger middle class Our growth had dried up during 2008 -2013 because of terrorism . With that menace coming to an all time low its only natural our economy goes up slowly and gradually. You cannot expect it to grow from 3 % in 2014 to 8% in 2016 .
 
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You make it sound as if Indian economy has been this miracle that the world has been waiting for. What good is your 7 % growth rate if your poverty is bigger than all africa combined ? Your entire society and per capita is run by 60 - 70 billionaires while rest of the society is in doldrums .

I would rather have 5 % growth of Pakistan , much less poverty and a bigger middle class .
It doesn't work that way. It is because of 7% + growth rate sustained over a decade that we managed to put a dent in our poverty. We have been reducing our poverty quite steadily. Though it was not visible as unlike China where population birth rates were very low, our birth rates were quite high. So the rate of change in poverty/sanitation was low despite managing high economic growth rate.

Now with our population birth rates falling, this time around, a second period of sustained economic growth rate of over 7%+ will make massive changes to the structure of poverty in India.

As far as middle class is concerned. Please look up stats. India's middle class, as a percentage of its population has not been this high in centuries. Yes that includes period from Mughals to the British.
 
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It doesn't work that way. It is because of 7% + growth rate sustained over a decade that we managed to put a dent in our poverty. We have been reducing our poverty quite steadily. Though it was not visible as unlike China where population birth rates were very low, our birth rates were quite high. So the rate of change in poverty/sanitation was low despite managing high economic growth rate.

Now with our population birth rates falling, this time around, a second period of sustained economic growth rate of over 7%+ will make massive changes to the structure of poverty in India.

As far as middle class is concerned. Please look up stats. India's middle class, as a percentage of its population has not been this high in centuries. Yes that includes period from Mughals to the British.

atlas_411PZRIel.png


Middle class adults. India despite having 7 times more population has a middle class thats only 4 times bigger than Pakistan. Pakistani economy functions in a different way to Indian economy . Pakistan despite having 5 % growth is having a much positive effect on its population because of the money distribution in the country . Its much more spreadout in people compared to a India. We had decades of 7 % growth rate throughout our history . We had 7 -7.5 % growth rate recently in Musharraf era without CPEC. We only suffered due to bad terrorism patch from 2009 - 2013. The good news is we are coming out of it and all indicators are very positive.

7 % growth rate is only benefitting the rich in India . How else do you explain the record number of suicide by poor farmers?
 
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atlas_411PZRIel.png


Middle class adults. India despite having 7 times more population has a middle class thats only 4 times bigger than Pakistan. Pakistani economy functions in a different way to Indian economy . Pakistan despite having 5 % growth is having a much positive effect on its population because of the money distribution in the country . Its much more spreadout in people compared to a India.
I said relative to India, not to the world. Please read what is written carefully. There are world leading economists in India who study this for a living and aid the Government in making better policies.
7 % growth rate is only benefitting the rich in India . How else do you explain the record number of suicide by poor farmers?
A variety of reasons that I could only explain to someone -forgive me- more knowledgeable than you on the agricultural economy issues in India.
 
.
Three are 3 ways to jump start an economy. Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, and/or Reforms. For actual growth at a minimum 2 have to be present.

Structural reforms simply explained is the way the market needs the government to work. And in order for a government to reform is has to understand the system, understand where and why the system has failed and offer solutions with the ability to carry them out.

Difficulties to reform come from a variety of reasons; vested interests, uncertainty combined with populist revolt, competing views, quantification, and leadership.

No Pakistani government has been able to understand the system. Or the governments do understand the system and have kept it contained to keep out a potential new social class, keeping power to the 22 original families.

Reforms will put downward pressures on wages and income. With rising prices for basic necessities. Necessities which hurt the less fortunate who survive paycheck to paycheck, and are the most vulnerable to changes? Is there a setup to help mitigate the hardship they face?

Short term effects are easy to measure, people notice them, while longer terms are forecasted. But the social pressures pushing back against reforms that have raised the prices for sugar, petrol, and pharmaceuticals with political protests can and often due bring down governments. Why would governments take chances when statistically there is no significance in structural reforms to bring about greater outputs?

What is the future? How do you measure it? And is it, the future, dependent on fate or destiny? Is the potential to see 5% growth dependent on the ability to increase literacy rates or will growth happen regardless?

The way to combat this is selling the reforms to an educated mature electorate. No two people in the world will have similar views, perhaps some in hundreds of billions. The government needs to show that it too is in the fight, it knows the struggle of working families and is willing to bucket down themselves. Not driving around in hundred police car conveys or having police officers protecting peacocks is a good start.


Reforms require the willingness to sacrifice and be willing to see through it for a chance at a brighter future. The possibility of a lining up of variables that each can contribute to it are difficult to come by, mostly because they require a leader willing to see them through. And that itself is the hardest to come by.



CPEC is a project every nation has to complete in order to take off. The US's own initial version, could be, the transcontinental railroad and telegraph. Bringing cattle from the midwest to Chicago's slaughterhouses, manufactured goods from the northeast went to SanFran for export to East Asia, and the speed at which ideas were able to spread.

CPEC seems more of, the same, connecting the far reaches of Pakistan with either Gwadar or Karachi for the export of products produced by the cottage industries. Believe it or not the road/ rail system doesn't make it easy for transporting goods. You knew that already. Just connecting Karachi to Islamabad with one long motorway isn't going to help the other 70 million people that aren't living next to the Indus River.

The economy is estimated to be losing 2% annually due to load-shedding, which CPEC is supposed to combat with numerous power plants. Floods and water supply with Dams.

But corruption costs Pakistan and estimated $43 Billion a year. A $49 Billion loan//investment seems insignificant.

Someone give this man a positive rating

You make it sound as if Indian economy has been this miracle that the world has been waiting for. What good is your 7 % growth rate if your poverty is bigger than all africa combined ? Your entire society and per capita is run by 60 - 70 billionaires while rest of the society is in doldrums .

I would rather have 5 % growth of Pakistan , much less poverty and a bigger middle class Our growth had dried up during 2008 -2013 because of terrorism . With that menace coming to an all time low its only natural our economy goes up slowly and gradually. You cannot expect it to grow from 3 % in 2014 to 8% in 2016 .

Any stats to prove your claims?
 
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