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Pakistan's economy is showing signs of recovery: ADB

Edevelop

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Asian Development Bank has said Pakistan's economy is showing signs of recovery underpinned by falling global oil prices and the expected uptick in regional economic growth.

The bank's Country Director Werner Liepach, while presenting the Asian Development Outlook 2015 at a ceremony in Islamabad, projected the economic growth of the country at 4.2 percent in 2015 and 4.5 percent in 2016 subject to steady progress in macroeconomic and structural reforms, and stable security, political and weather conditions.

According to the Outlook, the country exhibited renewed confidence with higher foreign exchange reserves, lower fiscal deficit and moderate inflation.

Radio Pakistan
 
both are true..
Pakistan economy is indeed recovering but not booming like in any other country in the region(be it India, Bangladesh)..and that is due to lack of reforms

the news quote

The bank's Country Director Werner Liepach, while presenting the Asian Development Outlook 2015 at a ceremony in Islamabad, projected the economic growth of the country at 4.2 percent in 2015 and 4.5 percent in 2016 subject to steady progress in macroeconomic and structural reforms, and stable security, political and weather conditions.

According to the Outlook, the country exhibited renewed confidence with higher foreign exchange reserves, lower fiscal deficit and moderate inflation.

its same news, there some good news like in last para due to fall in oil prices but over all picture isnot good.

what this simply means that will grow at slower pace and soon become the only poorest country in this region while india/bangaldesh with lower natural resources are growing twice the pace
 
both are true..
Pakistan economy is indeed recovering but not booming like in any other country in the region(be it India, Bangladesh)..and that is due to lack of reforms

the news quote

The bank's Country Director Werner Liepach, while presenting the Asian Development Outlook 2015 at a ceremony in Islamabad, projected the economic growth of the country at 4.2 percent in 2015 and 4.5 percent in 2016 subject to steady progress in macroeconomic and structural reforms, and stable security, political and weather conditions.

According to the Outlook, the country exhibited renewed confidence with higher foreign exchange reserves, lower fiscal deficit and moderate inflation.

its same news, there some good news like in last para due to fall in oil prices but over all picture isnot good.

what this simply means that will grow at slower pace and soon become the only poorest country in this region while india/bangaldesh with lower natural resources are growing twice the pace

I think energy shortages are taking care of at least 2% of gdp growth. Terrorism is also factor behind lack of investment,
 
I think energy shortages are taking care of at least 2% of gdp growth. Terrorism is also factor behind lack of investment,
very much true, govt needs reform in power distribution. it also needs investment in indigenous resources.
they went in right direction with LNG but distribution side has been completely ignored.

the same is true with taxation, a complete failure.

remember that we are benchmarking the performance with respect to "failure" of last govt..and so far its the same after 2 years.

what i expect is that govt will end power crisis but will not be able to complete its power reforms that will means less competitive business opportunities and high revenue loss(300-400 billion rupees per year) to the govt with a limited growth around 5. it will also not be able to do any tax reforms.

it is also unlikely that govt will cover up the loss making entities due to multiple reasons
 
both are true..
Pakistan economy is indeed recovering but not booming like in any other country in the region(be it India, Bangladesh)..and that is due to lack of reforms

the news quote

The bank's Country Director Werner Liepach, while presenting the Asian Development Outlook 2015 at a ceremony in Islamabad, projected the economic growth of the country at 4.2 percent in 2015 and 4.5 percent in 2016 subject to steady progress in macroeconomic and structural reforms, and stable security, political and weather conditions.

According to the Outlook, the country exhibited renewed confidence with higher foreign exchange reserves, lower fiscal deficit and moderate inflation.

its same news, there some good news like in last para due to fall in oil prices but over all picture isnot good.

what this simply means that will grow at slower pace and soon become the only poorest country in this region while india/bangaldesh with lower natural resources are growing twice the pace


ya but they have not been at war for 10 years

once talib scums are taken care of in a few year i am sure economy will improve in no time
 
ya but they have not been at war for 10 years

once talib scums are taken care of in a few year i am sure economy will improve in no time
India has its own insurgency problems...you cant pin everything on war and weather...do you think a trillion rupees losses in power and taxation is due to war on terror ????????????????????
this trillion rupees each year is enough to push growth in double digits

if we do this then we will just become equal to india performance in taxation still not world class but atleast something
 
I think energy shortages are taking care of at least 2% of gdp growth. Terrorism is also factor behind lack of investment,

Terrorism is more damaging than energy shortages. For example, we have little tourism. When we had cricket games, people would come and spend dollars (which will help our currency too!). But due to terrorism, not only tourism fell, but it also gave rise to pessimism, which means people being more careful about investing and capital fleeing out of the country.

if we can cruise around 4.5%, with 2% addition makes it 6.5% (as you say). If terrorism is vastly reduced and people start investing/tourism comes, our economy can cruise around 8-10%.

Lets not forget inflation has fallen drastically. So our GDP rise is actually much higher than previously, where inflation would take a chunk out of the rise.
 
India has its own insurgency problems...you cant pin everything on war and weather...do you think a trillion rupees losses in power and taxation is due to war on terror ????????????????????
this trillion rupees each year is enough to push growth in double digits

if we do this then we will just become equal to india performance in taxation still not world class but atleast something

India gdp to tax ratio is around 10%, not much better then Pakistan actually.
 
India gdp to tax ratio is around 10%, not much better then Pakistan actually.
are you kidding me ??????????
our is 9.5 and there is 17.7 ...we have to double our taxation in a single year to just even get near!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

IF WE REACH INDIA LEVEL, WE WILL HAVE 25 BILLION EXTRA DOLLARS EVERY YEAR ENOUGH MONEY TO BUILD ALL DAMS IN 1 YEAR
 
are you kidding me ??????????
our is 9.5 and there is 17.7 ...we have to double our taxation in a single year to just even get near!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

IF WE REACH INDIA LEVEL, WE WILL HAVE 25 BILLION EXTRA DOLLARS EVERY YEAR ENOUGH MONEY TO BUILD ALL DAMS IN 1 YEAR

Nope, they have tax to gdp ratio of around 10%, google it.
 
Terrorism is more damaging than energy shortages. For example, we have little tourism. When we had cricket games, people would come and spend dollars (which will help our currency too!). But due to terrorism, not only tourism fell, but it also gave rise to pessimism, which means people being more careful about investing and capital fleeing out of the country.

if we can cruise around 4.5%, with 2% addition makes it 6.5% (as you say). If terrorism is vastly reduced and people start investing/tourism comes, our economy can cruise around 8-10%.

Lets not forget inflation has fallen drastically. So our GDP rise is actually much higher than previously, where inflation would take a chunk out of the rise.
Nope energy shortage is problem no 1
 
Nope, they have tax to gdp ratio of around 10%, google it.
india tax to gdp ratio - Google Search

well Google gives me 17.7(showing wikipedia as a source), but other sources quote it from 11-16%..so you may be right regardlessly they are still much better than ours around 9


most sources say its around 15 to 16%
'India's tax-GDP ratio one of the lowest' | Business Standard News


point is with basic reform our tax to gdp ratio will rise to about 12-13 %(requiring an increase of 800 billion rupees in 1 year) which isnt great , its just a means than some sort of taxation exists!!!!


PS. this year target was 10.5%
 
india tax to gdp ratio - Google Search

well Google gives me 17.7(showing wikipedia as a source), but other sources quote it from 11-16%..so you may be right regardlessly they are still much better than ours around 9


most sources say its around 15 to 16%
'India's tax-GDP ratio one of the lowest' | Business Standard News


point is with basic reform our tax to gdp ratio will rise to about 12-13 %(requiring an increase of 800 billion rupees in 1 year) which isnt great , its just a means than some sort of taxation exists!!!!


PS. this year target was 10.5%

"Tax revenue (% of GDP) in India was last measured at 10.39 in 2011"

So not much better. But i agree even 2% can make huge difference. In couple of years SRO will be gone so extra Rs 380 billion will be added. Though i don't if it will actually help GDP to tax ratio much if next year base year is changed and Pakistan GDP increases overall.
 
"Tax revenue (% of GDP) in India was last measured at 10.39 in 2011"

So not much better. But i agree even 2% can make huge difference. In couple of years SRO will be gone so extra Rs 380 billion will be added. Though i don't if it will actually help GDP to tax ratio much if next year base year is changed and Pakistan GDP increases overall.
u can measure it every year honestly, just look up to tax collection and DP..its 16% i checked..

adding 280 billion in couple of years will not change much, as GDP is growing too (and the expenditure too)..untill govt goes for reforms things will not imporve
 
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