Pakistan's Ballistic Missle Defence Systems?

[A2Z]

India is not stupid enough to act alone.

The America+Israel+UK+France nexus will work from the shadows. The B-2 Spirit and F-22s will do their jobs silently. The intelligence sharing with India won't be noticed by anyone.

Think about it. Much of our Air Defence infrastructure is sourced from Western countries. What the West giveth, the West fears not.

OK for a moment we can say that your quoted nexus will provide India with all the intels and how to act and react upon any Pakistani installation. This is the limit of help India will get from west.

However actions of B-2 and F-22 will certainly mean that USA has decided to jump into the battlefield physically and with full force. This means such actions would allow China to step ahead and help its ally. I am getting the idea that you believe USA using its full stealth force would come and do what ever they want and leave and Pakistan wont know what hit them and from which direction, then you are mistaken.

Taking out Pakistani nuclear facilities is not as easy as shown in GI Joe. If taking out Pakistani targets was so easy, then in 90's Pakistani nuclear facilities were Israel and India's prime target. At that time too Pak was standing against India+Israel+West nexus and we were at our weakest. That was the most ideal time for such an action but that didn't happen and for a reason.

 

[CriticalThought]

OK for a moment we can say that your quoted nexus will provide India with all the intels and how to act and react upon any Pakistani installation. This is the limit of help India will get from west.

However actions of B-2 and F-22 will certainly mean that USA has decided to jump into the battlefield physically and with full force. This means such actions would allow China to step ahead and help its ally. I am getting the idea that you believe USA using its full stealth force would come and do what ever they want and leave and Pakistan wont know what hit them and from which direction, then you are mistaken.

Taking out Pakistani nuclear facilities is not as easy as shown in GI Joe. If taking out Pakistani targets was so easy, then in 90's Pakistani nuclear facilities were Israel and India's prime target. At that time too Pak was standing against India+Israel+West nexus and we were at our weakest. That was the most ideal time for such an action but that didn't happen and for a reason.

We can argue over the probability of such an event, but you cannot assign a 0 probability into the future. I personally assign this a probability that can come to pass. So, it needs to be planned for.

There are many reasons why such an outcome has not materialized in the past. Amongst them, the more lenient government of Bill Clinton, and the status of Pakistan as an Afghan war ally. Today, our sincerity and loyalty is under question, the democrats under Obama left us with the present of sanctions, and we have Mr. Trump at the presidency. The F-16 diplomacy is dead. We are living in a different world. Time to come out of the cold war and Afghan Jihad memories and face the music.

EDIT: And yes, I am saying the action will be swift and will be over before China gets the time to react. The Chinese presence in Arabian Sea helps, but my question is: How long do we outsource our national security?

iskander type missiles with smart munitions/longe range mbrls not beyond our reach.

and yes we can bluff our selves like india hit a short range ballistic missile with absolutely known trajectory and say hurra we have bmd in place . The best bmd is hitting the missile on its launcher period

The best bmd is hitting it on the TEL, period. And if you re-read my posts, I am saying that is exactly what India and Co. will try to do. The means to carry this out will involve stealth aircraft, and possibly missiles. Hence, the need for credible air defence.

 

[Fawadqasim1]

We can argue over the probability of such an event, but you cannot assign a 0 probability into the future. I personally assign this a probability that can come to pass. So, it needs to be planned for.

There are many reasons why such an outcome has not materialized in the past. Amongst them, the more lenient government of Bill Clinton, and the status of Pakistan as an Afghan war ally. Today, our sincerity and loyalty is under question, the democrats under Obama left us with the present of sanctions, and we have Mr. Trump at the presidency. The F-16 diplomacy is dead. We are living in a different world. Time to come out of the cold war and Afghan Jihad memories and face the music.

EDIT: And yes, I am saying the action will be swift and will be over before China gets the time to react. The Chinese presence in Arabian Sea helps, but my question is: How long do we outsource our national security?



The best bmd is hitting it on the TEL, period. And if you re-read my posts, I am saying that is exactly what India and Co. will try to do. The means to carry this out will involve stealth aircraft, and possibly missiles. Hence, the need for credible air defence.

will they succeed and if they don't what will be the consequences for south asia and the world at large.

We can argue over the probability of such an event, but you cannot assign a 0 probability into the future. I personally assign this a probability that can come to pass. So, it needs to be planned for.

There are many reasons why such an outcome has not materialized in the past. Amongst them, the more lenient government of Bill Clinton, and the status of Pakistan as an Afghan war ally. Today, our sincerity and loyalty is under question, the democrats under Obama left us with the present of sanctions, and we have Mr. Trump at the presidency. The F-16 diplomacy is dead. We are living in a different world. Time to come out of the cold war and Afghan Jihad memories and face the music.

EDIT: And yes, I am saying the action will be swift and will be over before China gets the time to react. The Chinese presence in Arabian Sea helps, but my question is: How long do we outsource our national security?



The best bmd is hitting it on the TEL, period. And if you re-read my posts, I am saying that is exactly what India and Co. will try to do. The means to carry this out will involve stealth aircraft, and possibly missiles. Hence, the need for credible air defence.

will they succeed and if they don't what will be the consequences for south asia and the world at large.

actually its this question which breaks the back of all such calculations and simulations

 

[vizier]

bmds in its current form are not very reliable but as the sams develop for example Chinese hq19 long range sams get to the level of thaad abm then since India is confined to use medium range bms against you(also potential adversary(s) in the middle east is at most intermediate range) it would be pretty effective.
Also even if in its current form long range sams are not effective against ballistic missiles protecting your nuclear assets from a sudden silent decapitation attack by enemy aircraft needs very low reaction time and multiple simultaneous engagement capability that sam systems possess.

icbms coming from potential adversaries far away can't be stopped and midcourse defense of Usa is a money drainer with suspectable capability against mirvs or low observable warheads.

Short term solutions are also practical and very necessary at this stage.

Ballistic missile early warning radars would give you time to prepare your own ballistic missiles to take off against regional targets which effectively takes out the first strike option including an icbm ballistic missile attack. Improved versions of aesa radars that India has like greenpine radar or a Chinese variant of israels advanced greenpine radar can be an option. But it should cover all directions that attacks can come from. It is too vital issue so trusting that an attack won't come from that direction or won't be allowed from that direction would be plain foolish that can easily be exploited.

Silo based ready to arm missiles are also necessary. Currently you have detached warheads stored in well protected areas. Attaching them, arming and transporting them requires too much time in case of a first strike scenario. Deep well separated and hardened silos would also be somewhat more resistant to conventional bombing runs as well.
You also know that they will attack silo area with ballistic missiles so a single battery of abm interceptor there would be sufficient for short term against up to intermediate range missiles.

Second strike capability is another insurance measure fending off the first strike option. Although now you have limited capability it will keep getting improved with perhaps ballistic missile capability added into the mix and longer range stealthier cruise missiles covering all potential targets for an effective counter attack.

 

[Basel]

Indigenously built system similar to Hq-16 would be good.

We nearly have all you mentioned, for BMD Pakistan could start with Hq-19 or Aster-30 block-1NT or S-300 VM (latest version) after getting knowledge and experience we can built our own system as per needs.

 

[waz]

China is building one and has carried out tests. Pakistan doesn't need to build one, and should invest resources into MIRV and hyper glide vehicles.

 

[arbit]

Its so strange that the topic is on BMD of Pakistan but a few members Start by proposing offense by annihilating India. Instead of talking about settling problems with India to avoid Nuke War.
Anyways, I don't understand this offensive strategy. Would Indian Nukes stored in Cities, Industries etc. and could be rendered useless by first strike. Don't militaries know how to work in an irradiated environments ? Doesn't Indian Military has forests caves tunnels and Oceans to save its missiles to survive first strike.
And btw what would be fate of remaining attacker country. Won't the world powers disband the attacker country and cut & distribute the remaining attacker country amongst them. Maybe Afghanistan takeover remaining Pakistan after war since they don't accept the Border and since Afghanistan will also suffer due to nuke war.
On the topic Pakistan should start their first step at least. That would be start of a long journey.

You are reading this wrong. Those who talk about nuking us right off the bat have already accepted defeat and understand that the war with India will have two scenarios only.
1. Total annihilation
2. Humiliation

In conventional war there is no way Pakistan will be able to last beyond a week and this narrow strip of land will be overrun from air and parted neatly into two. Moreover, those days of having superior American weaponry and international support are long over.
They just wont last. This brings us to the second point. Annihilation.

To avoid this humiliation, they advocate going in a ball of fire a la local suicide bomber. This betrays their weak state of mind and lack of ingenuity. Imagine if Israel were to think like that! Those guys are survivalist, where as the best BMD pakistan has got is MIRV. Ironical.

 

[.]

We nearly have all you mentioned, for BMD Pakistan could start with Hq-19 or Aster-30 block-1NT or S-300 VM (latest version) after getting knowledge and experience we can built our own system as per needs.

No need
As mentioned by @CriticalThought ,From a conventional kinetic warhead what if you use a neutron warhead ,Simply hook it up with a STSS system and increased satellite surveillance will do the Job ,No need for huge command structures on land except principle systems.
How costly would it be ? probably less than buying 8 submarines .

China is building one and has carried out tests. Pakistan doesn't need to build one, and should invest resources into MIRV and hyper glide vehicles.

I agree but Sir ,This is about reviving our dead space agency and valuable knowledge about future weapon systems will also be gained ,Just look how many nuclear powered countries are ahead on the space frontier except Pakistan .

 

[Basel]

No need
As mentioned by @CriticalThought ,From a conventional kinetic warhead what if you use a neutron warhead ,Simply hook it up with a STSS system and increased satellite surveillance will do the Job ,No need for huge command structures on land except principle systems.
How costly would it be ? probably less than buying 8 submarines .

I agree but Sir ,This is about reviving our dead space agency and valuable knowledge about future weapon systems will also be gained ,Just look how many nuclear powered countries are ahead on the space frontier except Pakistan .

If it was that simple then US would not have spent billions of $$$ on their BMD.

 

[.]

If it was that simple then US would not have spent billions of $$$ on their BMD.

No need for Pakistan to look at US .

bmds in its current form are not very reliable but as the sams develop for example Chinese hq19 long range sams get to the level of thaad abm then since India is confined to use medium range bms against you(also potential adversary(s) in the middle east is at most intermediate range) it would be pretty effective.
Also even if in its current form long range sams are not effective against ballistic missiles protecting your nuclear assets from a sudden silent decapitation attack by enemy aircraft needs very low reaction time and multiple simultaneous engagement capability that sam systems possess.

icbms coming from potential adversaries far away can't be stopped and midcourse defense of Usa is a money drainer with suspectable capability against mirvs or low observable warheads.

Short term solutions are also practical and very necessary at this stage.

Ballistic missile early warning radars would give you time to prepare your own ballistic missiles to take off against regional targets which effectively takes out the first strike option including an icbm ballistic missile attack. Improved versions of aesa radars that India has like greenpine radar or a Chinese variant of israels advanced greenpine radar can be an option. But it should cover all directions that attacks can come from. It is too vital issue so trusting that an attack won't come from that direction or won't be allowed from that direction would be plain foolish that can easily be exploited.

Silo based ready to arm missiles are also necessary. Currently you have detached warheads stored in well protected areas. Attaching them, arming and transporting them requires too much time in case of a first strike scenario. Deep well separated and hardened silos would also be somewhat more resistant to conventional bombing runs as well.
You also know that they will attack silo area with ballistic missiles so a single battery of abm interceptor there would be sufficient for short term against up to intermediate range missiles.

Second strike capability is another insurance measure fending off the first strike option. Although now you have limited capability it will keep getting improved with perhaps ballistic missile capability added into the mix and longer range stealthier cruise missiles covering all potential targets for an effective counter attack.

S-400 systems cannot track a Shaheen 3 ,you are telling me Hq-19 will do the Job.

 

[waz]

I agree but Sir ,This is about reviving our dead space agency and valuable knowledge about future weapon systems will also be gained ,Just look how many nuclear powered countries are ahead on the space frontier except Pakistan .

Of course bro, but then then the resources should go to SLV's, launch pads, monitoring stations etc. Building interceptors and having networks of radars and space based capabilities are far beyond the Pakistani economy.

 

[BHarwana]

Of course bro, but then then the resources should go to SLV's, launch pads, monitoring stations etc. Building interceptors and having networks of radars and space based capabilities are far beyond the Pakistani economy.

I would disagree with you here because a country capable of testing a MIRV can launch a space program. It is just the name Space which is scary but if you can launch a MIRV you have 90% of the platform ready.

S-400 systems cannot track a Shaheen 3 ,you are telling me Hq-19 will do the Job.

Totally agreed because BMD is never 100% successful with SCUD an old soviet system. The biggest example is in KSA. If you want I can pullout missile threat data of successful intercepts and successful hits by SCUD and Missiles are winning over interceptors so BMD is waste of money. in case of KSA and Yemen we have the data on most advanced systems vs old missiles.

 

[faithfulguy]

You are reading this wrong. Those who talk about nuking us right off the bat have already accepted defeat and understand that the war with India will have two scenarios only.
1. Total annihilation
2. Humiliation

In conventional war there is no way Pakistan will be able to last beyond a week and this narrow strip of land will be overrun from air and parted neatly into two. Moreover, those days of having superior American weaponry and international support are long over.
They just wont last. This brings us to the second point. Annihilation.

To avoid this humiliation, they advocate going in a ball of fire a la local suicide bomber. This betrays their weak state of mind and lack of ingenuity. Imagine if Israel were to think like that! Those guys are survivalist, where as the best BMD pakistan has got is MIRV. Ironical.

When I hear Indians talking about Pakistani will for sure lose to India. One word comes to mind, arrogance.

India was overtly confident against China in 1962 and was humbled. Let's hope India eat another humble pie.

 

[vizier]

No need for Pakistan to look at US .


S-400 systems cannot track a Shaheen 3 ,you are telling me Hq-19 will do the Job.

Hq19 in its current experimental form can't ofcourse do the job. When it gets to the accuracy of Usa abms of similar type or even better and its test data shows that it can be thought for protecting certain installations storing your nukes from a potential intermediate range ballistic missile attack. At least for a short span of time until you launch your own missiles making it sufficient for a deterrant measure. Also there is no announced modern long range high altitude sam system for protecting your nuclear installations against surprise airstrikes yet which is another necessity.

You also need a decent bm early warning radar and possibly silo based bm installations for better resistance against a first strike conventional airstrike or a bm attack scenario. It takes too much time to arrange and mobilize the TELs let alone there is the abscence of a ballistic missile early warning radar to alert you beforehand.

 

[.]

Hq19 in its current experimental form can't ofcourse do the job. When it gets to the accuracy of Usa abms of similar type or even better and its test data shows that it can be thought for protecting certain installations storing your nukes from a potential intermediate range ballistic missile attack. At least for a short span of time until you launch your own missiles making it sufficient for a deterrant measure. Also there is no announced modern long range high altitude sam system for protecting your nuclear installations against surprise airstrikes yet which is another necessity.

You also need a decent bm early warning radar and possibly silo based bm installations for better resistance against a first strike conventional airstrike or a bm attack scenario. It takes too much time to arrange and mobilize the TELs let alone there is the abscence of a ballistic missile early warning radar to alert you beforehand.

Silos ,assisted by assets in Space and Ground /Sea based radars similar to the U.S systems.
There is no need for Pakistan and china to rush at the moment ,As they are.
In a decade or so China will out flank US in Research and defense.
As for Pakistan testing an MIRV ,our space agency will and should become more independent now.