Pakistan PM: World should give Taliban ‘time’ on human rights, ‘incentivize’ group

[Patriot forever]

Just how big is the official and unofficial AfPak trade, in your view?

It does not work like that with Afghanistan. Most of the goods are smuggled, take wheat as an example wheat smuggling to Afghanistan. Before Taliban the smugglers got paid in dollars which went to our forex market ( Black money) but kept the rupee stable in forex market basically black market inflows. Now dollar is drying up in Afghanistan. Overall around $6-7m daily from goods and not only that around $2m daily is remitted back to Afghanistan by Afghans residing in Pakistan ( brecorder).

Pakistan and Afghanistan are interlinked, even if Pakistan is treating us badly right now but we will never be hostile to Pakistan . Words of 'Mullah Umar' in early years of Afghanistan invasion.

Similarly Pakistan was a source and it still is to some degree a source of dollars for Iran through smuggling. How do you think that smuggled petrol in Balochistan or Iranian chocolates, milk power etc are paid for.

 

[TheDarkKnight]

... but it is great for those who control the unofficial trade, or benefit from it.

True, but I doubt that is all Pakistan is trying to achieve, or it is even in the top 10 of its national and economic security concerns - ie to just make sure smugglers livelihood is not affected.

 

[VCheng]

It does not work like that with Afghanistan. Most of the goods are smuggled, take wheat as an example wheat smuggling to Afghanistan. Before Taliban the smugglers got paid in dollars which went to our forex market ( Black money) but kept the rupee stable in forex market basically black market inflows. Now dollar is drying up in Afghanistan. Overall around $6-7m daily from goods and not only that around $2m daily is remitted back to Afghanistan by Afghans residing in Pakistan ( brecorder).

Pakistan and Afghanistan are interlinked, even if Pakistan is treated us badly right now but we will never be hostile to Pakistan . Words of 'Mullah Umar' in early years of Afghanistan invasion.

Similarly Pakistan was a source and it still is to some degree a source of dollars for Iran through smuggling. How do you think that smuggled petrol in Balochistan or Iranian chocolates, milk power etc are paid for.

That is exactly the sort of environment where untraced finances back mayhem elsewhere in the world, not to mention the drug trade. The last thing this arrangement needs is more "incentives".

True, but I doubt that is all Pakistan is trying to achieve, or it is even in the top 10 of its national and economic security concerns - ie to just make sure smugglers livelihood is not affected.

Please see the above.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Afganistan is a narco society! So, the “meaningful” money is available to them to some extent! Pak would simply supply what they need at a bargain price….

 

[nahtanbob]

Good now what IK is saying let Afghanistan as country and its govt do the same at the state level and not create road blocks.

Did the Taliban allow that for the past 15 years ?

 

[PradoTLC]

In other words, please keep the gravy train going. This approach may not find much traction internationally.

What are you talking about ?

what matters is regional countries support… the west doesn’t really matter

 

[TheDarkKnight]

That is exactly the sort of environment where untraced finances back mayhem elsewhere in the world, not to mention the drug trade. The last thing this arrangement needs is more "incentives".
Please see the above.

I see what the quoted post is implying. At the most Pakistan used to have a reasonable amount of exports to Afg but those dried up when Ghani regime started to replace Pakistani items with other alternatives. We probably made some bucks from shipping and toll charges at the most - rest never really benefited the govt. The smugglers and transporter class are not really tax payers. About drug trade - if it continued with US presence, it will continue to after the departure as well. The market in west is there so producers will continue to produce.

But I would still not classify it as a gravy train - that was CSF funds which has been long suspended. As neighbor Pakistan would definitely like to trade.
But anyway this is a moot point now.

Currently Pakistan needs to avoid any harsh repercussions from west due to the fall out, stop a refugee influx, and contain anti Pak elements operating from Afg. Based on the hearings in senate, I think Pakistan is at-least losing MNNA status.

 

[SIPRA]

This interview, in any case, demonstrates that, in respect of moderation in public policy, Taliban are not listening to anyone, including Pakistan, and they still want to rule, in their old fashion.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Yes, IK shouldn't become their spokesperson. I quite agree. Should had also mentioned that Talibans priority should be eliminating militants groups residing in Afghanistan which includes TTP, ISIS-K, BLA, IKSP etc. West like to hear more about this. Also Talibans made initial blunder by not including any non-Talibans in their inclusive govt which earlier they were claiming to include. Now their are reports of inflighting, power struggle among top Talibans leadership. Good that we haven't recongnized Talibans govt yet though I am 100% sure that IK is inching to that every minute but has been held back by militarily establishment and foreign office.

 

[313ghazi]

I just don't understand why we are becoming the spokesperson for them. TTP attacks are still ongoing then what is it he is vouching for? No doubt the Taliban will make bad decisions and all the fingers will point at Pakistan. Foreign policy blunder incoming.

Which gravy train? All CSF and civil/mil aid is frozen since Trump took office.

Where do you think a major portion of monies sent into Afghanistan ends up?

@VCheng is right. If we take our opportunities correctly, Afghanistan can be a gravy train. I don't expect it to happen though - Pakistan comes across thoroughly incompetent, in fact so much so that finding competence in Pakistan is something i'd consider a rarity.

If international governments are funding the rebuilding of Afghanistan, where is the material going to come from? Who makes cement, bricks, doors, windows, furniture, plastic pipes, light bulbs etc etc all right next door? We do. Who's businessmen have an opportunity to export their products to Afghanistan? We do? Who's businesses have the opportunity to shift factories to Afghanistan specifically for the Afghan market? We do. Ultimately though i expect it'll be the Chinese to will take advantage, even though we don't have the language barrier and we could do it cheaper, unfortunately we don't have competence.

 

[VCheng]

What are you talking about ?

what matters is regional countries support… the west doesn’t really matter

Sure, let the regional countries provide the "incentives" PMIK is suggesting, if the West doesn't matter anymore.

Currently Pakistan needs to avoid any harsh repercussions from west due to the fall out, stop a refugee influx, and contain anti Pak elements operating from Afg. Based on the hearings in senate, I think Pakistan is at-least losing MNNA status.

Let's see what happens over the next few months.

@VCheng is right. If we take our opportunities correctly, Afghanistan can be a gravy train. I don't expect it to happen though - Pakistan comes across thoroughly incompetent, in fact so much so that finding competence in Pakistan is something i'd consider a rarity.

For Afghanistan to be provided any "incentives", what is the return, is the real question. Merely blackmailing over the threat of becoming a breeding ground for terrorism again may not work this time around.

 

[nahtanbob]

So you want to be just like Taliban now?
I thought one of the main goals of the war was about liberating Afghan women and children, I guess it wasnt then.

Taliban should think twice about blowing up civilian infrastructure and kicking out educated Afghans
But then they do not care about governing Afghanistan

For Afghanistan to be provided any "incentives", what is the return, is the real question. Merely blackmailing over the threat of becoming a breeding ground for terrorism again may not work this time around.

drug addicts never change ...

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Where do you think a major portion of monies sent into Afghanistan ends up?

Back in western banks. What do you think Afghanistan was for last two decades and where that 2 trillion plus spend end up?

 

[313ghazi]

Sure, let the regional countries provide the "incentives" PMIK is suggesting, if the West doesn't matter anymore.


Let's see what happens over the next few months.


For Afghanistan to be provided any "incentives", what is the return, is the real question. Merely blackmailing over the threat of becoming a breeding ground for terrorism again may not work this time around.

TBH i think it's a no-go and we'll see a repeat of the 90's. PMIK is going through the motions for the sake of it, but the real efforts needs to be made locally. Afghanistan has mineral wealth, China wants minerals, they should facilitate an agreement where minerals are extracted and profits split 50:50. They can then use that money for development.

Afghanistan really is a gold mine, unfortunately Pakistani businesses are stupid. If I was a Pakistani kiln owner i'd be learning pushto and dari as quick as i could and would be rushing to setup kilns around every major population centre in Afghanistan. Why export when you can make them cheaper in Afghanistan. Same with cement. One way or the other, the place is going to be re-built, the real gravy train was the last 20 years, which we missed out on. Even selling basic digging and farming tools, you could have made a killing.

 

[VCheng]

Back in western banks. What do you think Afghanistan was for last two decades and where that 2 trillion plus spend end up?

Minus all the "commissions" for all the regional "middlemen" involved, not a small amount by any means, of course.

TBH i think it's a no-go and we'll see a repeat of the 90's. PMIK is going through the motions for the sake of it, but the real efforts needs to be made locally. Afghanistan has mineral wealth, China wants minerals, they should facilitate an agreement where minerals are extracted and profits split 50:50. They can then use that money for development.

Afghanistan really is a gold mine, unfortunately Pakistani businesses are stupid. If I was a Pakistani kiln owner i'd be learning pushto and dari as quick as i could and would be rushing to setup kilns around every major population centre in Afghanistan. Why export when you can make them cheaper in Afghanistan. Same with cement. One way or the other, the place is going to be re-built, the real gravy train was the last 20 years, which we missed out on. Even selling basic digging and farming tools, you could have made a killing.

As I have said many times already, let's see what happens over the next few months.