Pakistan has missed all economic goals set for the year

[farhan_9909]

we never expected much from AIIB, therefore it was told to the media that none of 46 billion investment will come through AIIB





Pakistan is definitely performing better than PPPP, and far better in macroeconomic stability area.
problem is in reforms. the good news is Ishaq Dar knows what to do, they knew it before the election, they did their home work.
the Bad news is that he has failed to achieve it. I hope fully that by 2018 he might achieve this, if he does this will ensure a good growth rate for some period of time.

govt should have easily passed 5.5% may be a 6%, had it simply achieved its taxation, power losses & power production targets.
simply cutting down 200 billion rupees of development fund due to missing tax target has caused govt to miss the target.

Ishaq dar focus from the beginning was to let the economy stabilize first and than work on infra or growth acceleration related projects.

 

[Kabira]

we never expected much from AIIB, therefore it was told to the media that none of 46 billion investment will come through AIIB





Pakistan is definitely performing better than PPPP, and far better in macroeconomic stability area.
problem is in reforms. the good news is Ishaq Dar knows what to do, they knew it before the election, they did their home work.
the Bad news is that he has failed to achieve it. I hope fully that by 2018 he might achieve this, if he does this will ensure a good growth rate for some period of time.

govt should have easily passed 5.5% may be a 6%, had it simply achieved its taxation, power losses & power production targets.
simply cutting down 200 billion rupees of development fund due to missing tax target has caused govt to miss the target.

How much China investment help Pakistan grow next year? Do you think 5.5% is possible as they expect now?

 

[A1Kaid]

This is ridiculous news, anyone who has been watching the economic growth over the past year and the reports by the IMF, World Bank, Moody's, and Pakistan State Bank will know Pakistan's economy is surging forward. Sadly, we have members of a certain political party that want to discredit their own economy and country just to score points against the current party in government.

 

[ziaulislam]

How much China investment help Pakistan grow next year? Do you think 5.5% is possible as they expect now?

passing 5% will be difficult till 2018 unless govt achieves taxation reforms, the reason is that IMF is not going to bulge on fiscal discipline while Chinese investment will take time. If govt is able to get either the taxation reforms or power reforms it will push growth to 5%, achieving both may push it beyond 6. Remember i basing these number on current global environment which is very favorable for south asia, hence every country has achieved beyond 6(india, bangladesh, srilanka)

anyway expect an average of 4.5 till 2018 as it will be hard to achieve either. Govt would have achieved this miracle in 2 years if it was radical in approach but it isnt , so i dont think so its possible in 3 years with current approach.

another hope can be if govt is able to kick start major infrastructure projects like bahasha dam , dasu and bunj. The spending alone will add 0.3-.0.5 to GDP growth. If it does so it will definitely push the growth beyond 5% but that is difficult(lack of any funds/priority), without dare political decisions which includes making WAPDA an IPP or using bonds on WAPDA assets or allowing a govt to govt deal.

Ishaq dar focus from the beginning was to let the economy stabilize first and than work on infra or growth acceleration related projects.

if you read PML N manifesto you will understand what i mean. Just go to their site and read the energy and taxation portion or i can post it for you.

they clearly had bench marks for each year, they only failed in two most important ones
1. power reforms
2. taxation
both of which are costing govt 3% growth. It is like a chain reaction; failing in taxation has caused shelfing of projects like dasu and bhasha, less spending on health and education which in turn has hurt pakistan growth badly.

that is the reason why PSDP hasnt increased in last 2-3 years meaning less spending less growth, in real terms it has decreased due to inflation!

 

[ziaulislam]

This is ridiculous news, anyone who has been watching the economic growth over the past year and the reports by the IMF, World Bank, Moody's, and Pakistan State Bank will know Pakistan's economy is surging forward. Sadly, we have members of a certain political party that want to discredit their own economy and country just to score points against the current party in government.

show me one report that has said Pakistan is growing tremendously or appropriately according to it needs. Pakistan is slowest growing country in the region.

the problem is govt is propagating the positives and hiding the negatives. govt like to show the increase ratings from rating agencies knowing that its only natural that rating would increase when a near default country goes int o an IMF program. Its like saying if Greek signs a deal with europe its rating will go up overnight, would that means govt is doing excellent or there is rapid development? rating shows the investment risk and chance of default nothing else.

the positives are of course stability due to IMF program. The IMF has forced govt to increase its reserves through politically unacceptable means like bonds and IMF bailout program. Signing IMF also means that Asian bank and WB started there suspended program for pakistan. This in addition to 3G and privatization has caused stability in reserves. now i praise the govt for this but had PPPP made the decision of accepting IMF program it would have achieved the same as it did in 2010-11, there have been decent but no radical reforms as per IMF, AB,WB.

the result is that in terms of growth only minimum difference than PPPP(0.5-0.3) but in terms of macroeconomic stability good performance

 

[Viny]

we look at China not India, if you gonna have a role model choose the best not the worst.

Did that $75 billion give anything to the poor of a country having 1/3rd of world poor. this is what people think of India not their reserves.

Do you know what all wheels roll to make that $75 billion reach forex kitty?
I hope economics was a subject matter in your schooling era.

 

[ziaulislam]

Do you know what all wheels roll to make that $75 billion reach forex kitty?
I hope economics was a subject matter in your schooling era.

OIL

Economic growth — missing the mark
By Editorial
Published: May 21, 2015
46SHARES
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The growth is higher than what Pakistan had achieved in the last few years and is due in part to the perception of a pro-business government in place. CREATIVE COMMONS

The Pakistani economy has been projected to have a growth rate of 4.2 per cent for the outgoing fiscal year, which ends on June 30, meaning the government has missed the ambitious target of 5.1 per cent it had set itself. According to a provisional reading of the growth in GDP, the country was just marginally ahead of its performance last year but well short of the target. However, the projections remain largely in line with what the IMF, the ADB and the World Bank had predicted for Pakistan. The announcement of a 4.2 per cent growth rate does not come as a surprise. The growth is higher than what Pakistan had achieved in the last few years and is due in part to the perception of a pro-business government in place. There is no doubt that the Nawaz Administration has always tried to instill confidence in the business community — maybe a few select sectors to be more precise — and managed to help the capital markets’ performance as well. It was also largely to its advantage that global crude oil prices slumped over 50 per cent during the outgoing fiscal year, helping the country’s businesses to flourish to some extent. This also gave an opportunity to the government to reduce discount rates, with the inflation rate recording one low after another, benefiting highly leveraged companies as well.

However, we need to take a look at the larger picture. More than two-thirds of the growth came from the services sector, including telecommunications and banking. Growth in industrial and agricultural sectors could not catch up. Historically, Pakistan has never been a manufacturing country and therein lies the problem. While we can sit back and celebrate the growth in services, what is actually needed is the utilisation of the current favourable scenario to promote the manufacturing sector. Exports have failed to rise the way they could have and constant changes in policy is a huge impediment. All sectors, including automobile, textile and agriculture, have lamented the frequent changes in policies as the core reason for their lack of growth. The power crisis is another cliched reason but a major one nevertheless. The government needs to identify the problems impeding growth in various sectors and then develop the political will to eradicate them; otherwise, the Pakistani economy reaching its true potential will remain a dream.

Published in

 

[slapshot]

This is ridiculous news, anyone who has been watching the economic growth over the past year and the reports by the IMF, World Bank, Moody's, and Pakistan State Bank will know Pakistan's economy is surging forward. Sadly, we have members of a certain political party that want to discredit their own economy and country just to score points against the current party in government.

Who wrote this report? Quoting Babur Awan... Seriously! He was part of the most corrupt GOVT of Pakistan's history where Pakistan's Economy hit rock bottom. All the indicators showing positive signs. Even our credit rankings are improved.

 

[ziaulislam]

Pretty much sums it up.

decent performance, high expectation but Pakistan needs much more and they achieved far less than what they promised

Who wrote this report? Quoting Babur Awan... Seriously! He was part of the most corrupt GOVT of Pakistan's history where Pakistan's Economy hit rock bottom. All the indicators showing positive signs. Even our credit rankings are improved.

tell me one thing which is wrong in this report? rather quoting its sources or who wrote it

 

[A1Kaid]

show me one report that has said Pakistan is growing tremendously or appropriately according to it needs. Pakistan is slowest growing country in the region.

the problem is govt is propagating the positives and hiding the negatives. govt like to show the increase ratings from rating agencies knowing that its only natural that rating would increase when a near default country goes int o an IMF program. Its like saying if Greek signs a deal with europe its rating will go up overnight, would that means govt is doing excellent or there is rapid development? rating shows the investment risk and chance of default nothing else.

the positives are of course stability due to IMF program. The IMF has forced govt to increase its reserves through politically unacceptable means like bonds and IMF bailout program. Signing IMF also means that Asian bank and WB started there suspended program for pakistan. This in addition to 3G and privatization has caused stability in reserves. now i praise the govt for this but had PPPP made the decision of accepting IMF program it would have achieved the same as it did in 2010-11, there have been decent but no radical reforms as per IMF, AB,WB.

the result is that in terms of growth only minimum difference than PPPP(0.5-0.3) but in terms of macroeconomic stability good performance

Go read Pakistan economy section, loads of threads people have posted including myself.

 

[Bobby]

not a good report card

 

[ziaulislam]

Go read Pakistan economy section, loads of threads people have posted including myself.

ok 4.2 growth is astronomical compared to 3.7 growth of pppp and all is well. noone can put us out of plain simple denial

 

[Viper0011.]

Indeed. Also according to leading American economist on this forum @Viper0011. (aka @orangzaib), Pakistan will overtake India thanks to $46 BILLION Chinese investments.

You aka, the troll.......show me ONE post that shows I said so. Idiots living in fools paradise!!! India has over 250 billion in her savings account with 1.2 billion population and 4 times the area.....Pakistan has 5 times less population, 4 times less the area and an economy that's taking off with mere 17 billion in her savings account....how does $ 46 billion make Pakistan compete with India????? There are people who are either on drugs or on stuff that should be very illegal to use, drink or smoke. Check facts or get sober before posting utter nonsense!

 

[iPhone]

4.2 economic growth isn't bad at all when you consider that less than 5 years ago the growth rate was between 2-3 percent.

 

[Shan-e-ibrahim]

This unholy economic partnership between China and India that is taking shape is going to bite us in the future

This is business, if our dukaan is not capable of doing investments then it's purely our fault.