Pakistan Can No Longer Ignore Its Weakened Economy

[VCheng]

We have long been victims of indoctrination. I cringe when I see young ones talking like my twenty year old self.

Go ahead and vent your spleen upon corrupt politicians. This will never get you anywhere, & after a few years you may realize that you are just an unwitting tool supporting status-quo imposed by Establishment.

When we lust after good schools & hospitals the same way people here lust after weapons, things might start to change.

Politicians are not responsible for status quo. They are struggling against it.

As long as the indoctrination holds the minds of those who matter, there will be enough followers to make any meaningful change impossible.

 

[Chak Bamu]

Are you being sarcastic? I think not.

This is my considered opinion. This is no sarcasm.

Politicians have to run the country. They have to be held accountable via elections. They should also be held accountable via public pressure and judicial proceedings, if the situation warrants it. But where Judiciary has historically sided with dictators, judicial action would necessarily be interpreted as though from Deep State (Military, Civil Bureaucracy, & Judiciary combine as in Egypt, etc...).

It takes 10-15 years of continued and unhindered democracy to establish norms after a dictator steps down. This is how it was in South Korea. After three or four elections, the system is stable enough to bring corrupt politicians to account. This is how it happened in Peru, Korea, Brazil, without raising the spectre of military intervention or deep state action.

What we are seeing with NS is a farce, and it is perceived as such. I lost my business in 2014 due to accumulation of losses during Zardari era. I took it on the chin and thought at least Pakistan has gone through one round of elections, & hopefully things will improve. They did improve, but I saw constant interference via proxies like PTI (dharnas & shutdowns) & religious parties (like now). I dropped PTI as the preferred option after the first dharna when it became clear who was pulling the strings.

So, though I see where you are coming from, I can not support an anti-democratic stance when constitution is being used as a mere fig leaf.

Later....

 

[Khafee]

This is my considered opinion. This is no sarcasm.

Politicians have to run the country. They have to be held accountable via elections. They should also be held accountable via public pressure and judicial proceedings, if the situation warrants it. But where Judiciary has historically sided with dictators, judicial action would necessarily be interpreted as though from Deep State (Military, Civil Bureaucracy, & Judiciary combine as in Egypt, etc...).

It takes 10-15 years of continued and unhindered democracy to establish norms after a dictator steps down. This is how it was in South Korea. After three or four elections, the system is stable enough to bring corrupt politicians to account. This is how it happened in Peru, Korea, Brazil, without raising the spectre of military intervention or deep state action.

What we are seeing with NS is a farce, and it is perceived as such. I lost my business in 2014 due to accumulation of losses during Zardari era. I took it on the chin and thought at least Pakistan has gone through one round of elections, & hopefully things will improve. They did improve, but I saw constant interference via proxies like PTI (dharnas & shutdowns) & religious parties (like now). I dropped PTI as the preferred option after the first dharna when it became clear who was pulling the strings.

So, though I see where you are coming from, I can not support an anti-democratic stance when constitution is being used as a mere fig leaf.

Later....

Initially I did not understand your POV, but now that you have put it so rationally, it definitely makes sense.

I appreciate you taking time out, and responding to my one liner so eloquently.

Pleasure meeting you Sir! Thank You for your valuable input.

Best Regards

 

[ziaulislam]

For a Country trying to portray itself as a potential leading Islamic leader AND a country that feels it should be treated by the global world as a near equal to India .......... ITS economy is utterly AWFUL

A country of over 200 million people can only muster EXPORTS OF bearly $25 billion per year.

There is no hint of a modern hi tech industry in any field be it Pharmaceuticals IT or Space.

Instead we get the same old 200 year old Textile trade which other countries produce far more efficiently

Pakistan lacks rich influential modern business leaders to even attempt to build a class industry

It looks like their ARMY and generals run everything and hinder investment

THEY are banking on CPEC and China for EVERYTHING

Exports IS NOT THE economy
Its a part of the economy

 

[ziaulislam]

I belive remittances and foreign investment is easily going to cushion this

But yes govt is to blame for poor export policies and i jave brought this up here for last 3 years

Devaluation will justckeas to more inflation and i think it should not be done...i dont believe rupee is over valued by more than 5%

 

[VCheng]

1. A slide in value to depreciate the currency by 2% per month for the next 4 months should be done.

At least we agree that the PKR needs to be devalued. The amount, timing and rate of decline is the question. I agree that a gradual decrease would be the lest disruptive, but it needs to happen sooner rather than later. The longer the devaluation is delayed, the more sudden it will be. My guess is that 5-8% decline would be announced soon before or after elections and then another 10% or so gradually over the following year or so, just to keep the nation confused about who to blame as everybody will point fingers at each other.

2. Exporters must be given incentives, just like other countries of the region.

The problem here is the exporters of raw materials get benefits by devaluation as they can price their products more competitively in the global markets. However, any industry that uses imported inputs such as dyes, enzymes or tools etc will find those expenses rise and thus they may not be able to benefit globally from such devaluation.

The basic problem here is Pakistan's distinct inability to produce and export what the world demands in competition with other producers in the same markets.

3. For the rest foreign currency loans should be sought at as favorable terms as are possible.

Negotiation with IMF/WB will be key here and the terms will depend on how desperate the government appears to its lenders.

4. Foreign remittances would decline as instability increase in Middle East.

This is probably inevitable at this point. Coupled with this decline in remittances, what would be more problematic is the rise in oil prices if widespread conflicts break out instead of low grade civil warfare as presently is the case.

5. As growth improves, FDI would increase.

One would hope so. Improving power availability would help immensely. Things like interrupting or delaying construction on new power lines (eg Matiari) will not help.

So, the situation could get worse or actually improve. Factors #1 & 2 would improve our export and pull in foreign exchange. Factor #4 is a risk factor and could really hurt Pakistan's economy. Factor# 3 & 5 are a given. So the picture is not really clear.

How the picture evolves will depend on just how bad the uncertainty is allowed to prevail for the next transition of government and how it is effected. Who gains power and the policies to be followed still remain to be seen, although I would hope that PTI does better than before, given the abysmal condition of the rest of the political parties.

 

[django]

No country can ignore its economic development. In a way economic development, stability and management thereof are a direct indication of the functioning of a state. @TaiShang

A high functioning state would obviously be putting enormus energy and focus on economic development. A case in point for the developing world would be China in particular and SE Asian in general.

Since PDF is primarily a tribal space..the purpose of this thread is apparently for a tribal shadenfreude. Totally understandable. Daily routine really....Red vs Orange vs Green...and there are other wonderlands/colours of mudslinging!

Regarding the economic perforamce of Pak, well, it is truly a wonderful study.

A country that could be a marvel of development in the 50s and 60s takes a diametrically opposite course and in the process wipes out the gains of achievements of that period. And yet keeps doggedly developing in strategic security sphere to be on par with great powers.

This paradox provides a window into the potential of the Pak State and Pak Peoples. If the same people (from same stock) can have a highly functioning armed forces and an almost respectable defence production...why can't they manage their economic and social development equally?

Blaming politicos or deep state won't solve the predicament. We all have been here before...and this circle will keep people and mental output contained within. The need of the hour is exit from such enclosement and finding new frameworks that could work for Pak State and People.

Given the current state of affairs in political corruption and apathy of the political ruling class...it becomes imperative that an independent and solid Pak Economic Policy and Management Framework be established which has both expertise and autonomy to develop, deploy and manage the economic and financial performace of the country.

In such a framework Pak political class can direct their energies to creating social harmony and enabling political environment for investments and economic development.( It can also bring the major corruption to a managable level!)

Same as Pak security establishment is responsible for the national security and territorial integerity...political class can have its own portfolio of responsiblities. With a special bureau responsible for economy and finance...developing both long term (15-25 year goals) and short term (5 years plan) and seeing it through...being held accountable by the elected officials and judicial mechanisms.

By allowing the current state of affairs to continue Pak will be creating more of self inflicted wounds. Perhaps it is time now to stop this hobby and pursue a new interest.... Comprehensive National Strength....through economic, social, technological and scientific development.

So in the end Pak can become a model for the global South which suffers from the same problems of corruption, incompetence and apathy.

The Five Pillars of Wisdom could entail.

1) Political Class - Responsible for social harmony and a condusive environment for investement and economic/social growth i.e. education and rule of law

2) Armed Forces - Responsible for National Security and Perservation of State from external threats

3) Independent and Competent Judiciary - Responsible for impartial justice applied to all equally

4) Independent Economic and Financial Authority - Responsible for the obvious and accountable to Pak Parliment

5) Civil Society - Responsible for holding the elected accountable. Being responsible to live and develop the Idea of Pak in their daily lives...starting to take ownership...it always starts with the middle class.

Given Pak's unique history...Civilisational and recent.... given the geographic position... until the governance reachs maturity... no other form is going to deliver results.

CPEC happened not because of the genius of Pak Political Class but by the sheer strategic necessity of the Great Red Dragon.

Food for thought.

The difference between potential and realistic is the distance by which some nations become great powers and others remain dreaming.

Succes is a Choice!

All the best to tribal warfare here on PDF....though some do offer great insights!


@Khafee @MastanKhan @Kaptaan @El Sidd @Irfan Baloch @The Eagle @war&peace @DESERT FIGHTER @hellfire @Jacob Martin @Joe Shearer @scorpionx @Chak Bamu @Sher Shah Awan @django

Excellent points Sir, if only our political class adhered to these suggestion, we would have been the success story of South Asia, no question about it.Kudos Sir

 

[Nilgiri]

The problem here is the exporters of raw materials get benefits by devaluation as they can price their products more competitively in the global markets. However, any industry that uses imported inputs such as dyes, enzymes or tools etc will find those expenses rise and thus they may not be able to benefit globally from such devaluation.

The basic problem here is Pakistan's distinct inability to produce and export what the world demands in competition with other producers in the same markets.

Does Pakistan over-tax input materials? This reduces viability of value added production given the geometric progression of the price coefficients. It only really justified for political short term reasons (compared to economic).

It was a big problem in India, getting a bit better with GST (given sheer number of potential coeffs has been decreased) but still long way to go.

This is one of the overlooked keys that China "reset" under Deng Xiaoping in the 80s. A focus on final consumables (tax-wise), and not over-extraction from the intermediates is the best approach....parallels a bit with my coffee I'm having

 

[VCheng]

Does Pakistan over-tax input materials? This reduces viability of value added production given the geometric progression of the price coefficients. It only really justified for political short term reasons (compared to economic).

It was a big problem in India, getting a bit better with GST (given sheer number of potential coeffs has been decreased) but still long way to go.

This is one of the overlooked keys that China "reset" under Deng Xiaoping in the 80s. A focus on final consumables (tax-wise), and not over-extraction from the intermediates is the best approach....parallels a bit with my coffee I'm having

The short answer to your question is yes, imported input materials for most value-adding industries are taxed quite heavily. What's more, this taxation is subject to arbitrary and sudden changes by statutory orders.

 

[Nilgiri]

The short answer to your question is yes, input materials are taxed quite heavily. What's more, this taxation is subject to arbitrary and sudden changes by statutory orders.

The govt (federal and state level) ought to start there and the people (who have time/opportunity) ought to rally on that single effort (coz I doubt the govt would give up such a scam willingly).

This contrasts with the more discussed structural effort of education, health etc which needs long term momentum, dedication and institutions etc. Tax reform can be done quite fast if enough people hold govt feet to the flames and don't hold back. Added bonus is it reduces the broader envelope for corruption and political shenanigans like you describe.

Then and only then you get some semblance of true free market (based on what you know) allowed to operate and grow compared to bunch of cartels and oligarchs (based on who you know) in the multi input/value added/formal job creation areas of an economy. The lessons from that (meritocracy, final results driven) can be applied then more broadly to education rather than over-complicating govt intervention....while leaving all rest of the problems (or distractions etc) to be sorted out once you grow the cake more rapidly.

Its this spark+momentum thats very lacking in South Asia as a whole....and specific regions especially (wherever politics has really put a sustained yoke for protection of some current premium/privilege for a few).

 

[VCheng]

The govt (federal and state level) ought to start there and the people (who have time/opportunity) ought to rally on that single effort (coz I doubt the govt would give up such a scam willingly).

This contrasts with the more discussed structural effort of education, health etc which needs long term momentum, dedication and institutions etc. Tax reform can be done quite fast if enough people hold govt feet to the flames and don't hold back. Added bonus is it reduces the broader envelope for corruption and political shenanigans like you describe.

Then and only then you get some semblance of true free market (based on what you know) allowed to operate and grow compared to bunch of cartels and oligarchs (based on who you know) in the multi input/value added/formal job creation areas of an economy. The lessons from that (meritocracy, final results driven) can be applied then more broadly to education rather than over-complicating govt intervention....while leaving all rest of the problems (or distractions etc) to be sorted out once you grow the cake more rapidly.

Its this spark+momentum thats very lacking in South Asia as a whole....and specific regions especially (wherever politics has really put a sustained yoke for protection of some current premium/privilege for a few).

What you say is well known. But, the basic issue here is that the policy goals in practice are quite often contrary to the stated goals: maintaining little protected monopolies of a select few in mutually agreed-upon areas rather than growing the economy as a whole. For example, look into gang saws used for cutting marble slabs, for an illustrative lesson.

 

[Hellfire]

A great write up. Thanks for the tag. My visits are directly proportional to posts such as this one - rarer by the day.

No country can ignore its economic development. In a way economic development, stability and management thereof are a direct indication of the functioning of a state. @TaiShang

A high functioning state would obviously be putting enormus energy and focus on economic development. A case in point for the developing world would be China in particular and SE Asian in general.

Since PDF is primarily a tribal space..the purpose of this thread is apparently for a tribal shadenfreude. Totally understandable. Daily routine really....Red vs Orange vs Green...and there are other wonderlands/colours of mudslinging!

Regarding the economic perforamce of Pak, well, it is truly a wonderful study.

A country that could be a marvel of development in the 50s and 60s takes a diametrically opposite course and in the process wipes out the gains of achievements of that period. And yet keeps doggedly developing in strategic security sphere to be on par with great powers.

This paradox provides a window into the potential of the Pak State and Pak Peoples. If the same people (from same stock) can have a highly functioning armed forces and an almost respectable defence production...why can't they manage their economic and social development equally?

Blaming politicos or deep state won't solve the predicament. We all have been here before...and this circle will keep people and mental output contained within. The need of the hour is exit from such enclosement and finding new frameworks that could work for Pak State and People.

Given the current state of affairs in political corruption and apathy of the political ruling class...it becomes imperative that an independent and solid Pak Economic Policy and Management Framework be established which has both expertise and autonomy to develop, deploy and manage the economic and financial performace of the country.

In such a framework Pak political class can direct their energies to creating social harmony and enabling political environment for investments and economic development.( It can also bring the major corruption to a managable level!)

I must commend you on your optimism over defining Pakistan being at par with great powers in 'strategic security' domain. Clearly we have a difference of opinion on what a 'strategic security' domain includes. The rather striking absence of economic security and stability as a necessary cornerstone of strategic security is, in my opinion, a stretch.

And 'the same stock'? I have hardly found any genetic/racial basis for superior performance by citizens of a nation, especially in as diverse a social and racial composition as that of Indian Sub-continental Countries. What is with this 'the same stock'? Any evidence to support your quip here? Would be enlightening if you could shed some light on that. You yourself concede to that diversity in the latter part as highlighted by blue. Or have I misunderstood?

Same as Pak security establishment is responsible for the national security and territorial integerity...political class can have its own portfolio of responsiblities. With a special bureau responsible for economy and finance...developing both long term (15-25 year goals) and short term (5 years plan) and seeing it through...being held accountable by the elected officials and judicial mechanisms.

That is defined for an ideal state. However, you need to check the areas of interests that Pak Security Establishment finds it necessary to 'involve itself with'.

The classical 'national security and territorial integrity' is not a limitation in charter of duties, rather an enabler for diversification in other areas of 'responsibility' wherein a deliberate interference has resulted in not only weakening of the various governmental institutions/departments, but also ensured a subservience of national policy priorities to perceived security interests. The history of Pakistan as a nation is an example by itself, wherein, the security establishment, which has been mandated to protect the state and ensure it's security and territorial integrity, is systematically and single handedly responsible for undermining the very same state that it was supposed to protect.

By allowing the current state of affairs to continue Pak will be creating more of self inflicted wounds. Perhaps it is time now to stop this hobby and pursue a new interest.... Comprehensive National Strength....through economic, social, technological and scientific development.

How is Pakistan to do that? CPEC? With the opacity over the Long Term Plan, of reported 'refusal' of Pakistan to allow Yuan to be a legal tender in Gwadar, what other 'skeletons in the closet' are there?

A few days back we heard of Pakistan refusal over financing of a dam in Pakistan ruled Kashmir. It was found to be over ownership of dam issues

So, you mean to suggest that this is empowerment of Pakistan? If not, what is your take on the CPEC and the daily 'interesting' tidbits of steps towards Pakistan actually relinquishing/losing control over certain segments of it's economy?

So in the end Pak can become a model for the global South which suffers from the same problems of corruption, incompetence and apathy.

With a security establishment which has successfully undermined the civil institutions for over seven decades now? With a security establishment which relentlessly pursued a history of "Islamisation" of it's own educational institutes and mainstreaming religion into it's societal fiber which poses a threat to the state itself today?

Or perhaps you mean to indicate CPEC, a project which is now slowly revealing things that were not openly available in public domain - of strings that are attached?

The Five Pillars of Wisdom could entail.

1) Political Class - Responsible for social harmony and a condusive environment for investement and economic/social growth i.e. education and rule of law

2) Armed Forces - Responsible for National Security and Perservation of State from external threats

3) Independent and Competent Judiciary - Responsible for impartial justice applied to all equally

4) Independent Economic and Financial Authority - Responsible for the obvious and accountable to Pak Parliment

5) Civil Society - Responsible for holding the elected accountable. Being responsible to live and develop the Idea of Pak in their daily lives...starting to take ownership...it always starts with the middle class.

Given Pak's unique history...Civilisational and recent.... given the geographic position... until the governance reachs maturity... no other form is going to deliver results.

CPEC happened not because of the genius of Pak Political Class but by the sheer strategic necessity of the Great Red Dragon.

Food for thought.

The difference between potential and realistic is the distance by which some nations become great powers and others remain dreaming.

Succes is a Choice!

All the best to tribal warfare here on PDF....though some do offer great insights!


@Khafee @MastanKhan @Kaptaan @El Sidd @Irfan Baloch @The Eagle @war&peace @DESERT FIGHTER @hellfire @Jacob Martin @Joe Shearer @scorpionx @Chak Bamu @Sher Shah Awan @django

If Pakistan has to truly emerge as a front runner, it needs to revert to pre-1950 Political system wherein the armed forces and the security establishment was subservient to the nation and not the reverse. The tragedy of Pakistan remains that a society that was forward and all embracing, was systematically radicalised as part of a state program in 1980s, and that is coming to bite the country right where it hurts. That the so called security considerations rule supreme and relegate the national interests to a background, is a bane for Pakistan.

Take the example of Hafeez Saeed. Releasing him, howsoever symbolic a gesture it was in his arrest, does not send the signals that indicate that national interests rule supreme in Pakistan. The only signal going out is that of the security establishment being the decider of fate of hundreds of millions of ordinary Pakistanis.

I can go on, but unfortunately, the list is long and will soon turn into a greater rant than that it is at present.

Cheers.

 

[Mangus Ortus Novem]

A great write up. Thanks for the tag. My visits are directly proportional to posts such as this one - rarer by the day.







I must commend you on your optimism over defining Pakistan being at par with great powers in 'strategic security' domain. Clearly we have a difference of opinion on what a 'strategic security' domain includes. The rather striking absence of economic security and stability as a necessary cornerstone of strategic security is, in my opinion, a stretch.

And 'the same stock'? I have hardly found any genetic/racial basis for superior performance by citizens of a nation, especially in as diverse a social and racial composition as that of Indian Sub-continental Countries. What is with this 'the same stock'? Any evidence to support your quip here? Would be enlightening if you could shed some light on that. You yourself concede to that diversity in the latter part as highlighted by blue. Or have I misunderstood?



That is defined for an ideal state. However, you need to check the areas of interests that Pak Security Establishment finds it necessary to 'involve itself with'.

The classical 'national security and territorial integrity' is not a limitation in charter of duties, rather an enabler for diversification in other areas of 'responsibility' wherein a deliberate interference has resulted in not only weakening of the various governmental institutions/departments, but also ensured a subservience of national policy priorities to perceived security interests. The history of Pakistan as a nation is an example by itself, wherein, the security establishment, which has been mandated to protect the state and ensure it's security and territorial integrity, is systematically and single handedly responsible for undermining the very same state that it was supposed to protect.




How is Pakistan to do that? CPEC? With the opacity over the Long Term Plan, of reported 'refusal' of Pakistan to allow Yuan to be a legal tender in Gwadar, what other 'skeletons in the closet' are there?

A few days back we heard of Pakistan refusal over financing of a dam in Pakistan ruled Kashmir. It was found to be over ownership of dam issues

So, you mean to suggest that this is empowerment of Pakistan? If not, what is your take on the CPEC and the daily 'interesting' tidbits of steps towards Pakistan actually relinquishing/losing control over certain segments of it's economy?




With a security establishment which has successfully undermined the civil institutions for over seven decades now? With a security establishment which relentlessly pursued a history of "Islamisation" of it's own educational institutes and mainstreaming religion into it's societal fiber which poses a threat to the state itself today?

Or perhaps you mean to indicate CPEC, a project which is now slowly revealing things that were not openly available in public domain - of strings that are attached?



If Pakistan has to truly emerge as a front runner, it needs to revert to pre-1950 Political system wherein the armed forces and the security establishment was subservient to the nation and not the reverse. The tragedy of Pakistan remains that a society that was forward and all embracing, was systematically radicalised as part of a state program in 1980s, and that is coming to bite the country right where it hurts. That the so called security considerations rule supreme and relegate the national interests to a background, is a bane for Pakistan.

Take the example of Hafeez Saeed. Releasing him, howsoever symbolic a gesture it was in his arrest, does not send the signals that indicate that national interests rule supreme in Pakistan. The only signal going out is that of the security establishment being the decider of fate of hundreds of millions of ordinary Pakistanis.

I can go on, but unfortunately, the list is long and will soon turn into a greater rant than that it is at present.

Cheers.

My Valued Friend,

A post worth not only reading thoughtfully but also deserving reflection and replying with same intellectual vigour that you employed. No wonder I consider you to be a Soldier Scholar!

You have answered all your own questions. So how best to answer a conundrum?

Lips of wisdom must remained sealed, opening only to ears of understanding!

The way I see Pak State is a composite. It is viable and has the potential to become what its true worth is. The same way I percieve India to have the potential to become a great power. But turning a potential into tangible reality requires application of mind and matter... same as in your profession... logistics are the key!

However, in the present framework of managing Pak state affairs is counter-productive in all of its various manifestations. Hence, my suggestion of a 5 Pillars of Wisdom.

Why you ask?

Nothing else will work otherwise. Democracy is no magic bullet.

Kindly, see your own internal affairs. Just going through election cycles and having separation of military, civilian and judicial organs has not completely advanced Human Condition in India as it should have. Yet this is the only form (regardless of its present quality of service delivery, integrity and true strategic outlook with consistency) that can keep the Union together. So you chose the right formula for yourselves. Although I do percieve an emerging threat to this formula which has served you for 70 odd years. But we shall ponder on such when the opportune moment arrives...togther we shall!

Now as I said in my post.. if 50's and 60's Pak could be such a forward looking and advancing state... since it is the same people.. so the Paks can find back their way to that end as well. The current excessive, zealous religiouslity is the by product of apthay and rentiering of state for the benefit of the few.. we both know how systematically the Pak society was conditioned to serve geo-strategic interests of others... the process has not gone out of fashion yet... but a clear decline is visible. Long road to freedom on this one! Hence the 5 Pillars of Wisdom.

Perhaps it is a global disease or something but the quality of politicos is going downhill everywhere. Let us call it the Zeitgeist.....

A state alive from within flourishes without... the fundament issue with Pak is the Idea of Pak has been hijacked without offering a compelling narrative to fill the void. Religion was not the only glue needed to keep the Pak state viable at all. It did serve its purpose...but there was a need for building upon it...which was successfully tried and achieved in 50s and 60s.

Certainly, you know very well from your own reflections, professional exposure and courses... statecraft demands..continuous update of the narrative...adaptive yet rigid.... a difficult to manage paradox...but nobody said it is an easy one. Please, see the emerging narrative building within your own good country...

I shall allow myself the time to understand the dynamics (purely from System Theory perspective) which enabled the certain pillar in Pak to have more savy in affairs of the state.... for now I cann't see it in black and white yet.

As you no doubt have studied...the Crusades lasted so long not because of religious zeal but because there were too many youngmen available and too little economic opportunity or youngwomen. Same is the case of Wickings.. same as the reaon why Europeans went out and colonised the new world, including your part of world....

If we could detach ourselves from our conditioning and biases and enter the mind of the Universe and try to percieve... we perhaps can appreciate why a strong, prosperous and stable, forward looking Pak is in everyone's best interest in South West and South Asia all the way to cold borders of the Bear...

I sincerely hope that South West and South Asia can find a compelling reason to work for economic growth and development.... Civilisationally it is the burden on these states to revive and do the right thing by their people. Only then ye shall be equals to the rest of the West! At the moment, I am sorry to observe, none is doing anything of the sorts...

Now over to you, kind sir, for retort!

Regards,

Mangus

PS. I started a thread about the Indian potential with a straight forward, rather globally accepted scenario... with a few questions of Hows... but none took the effort to answer... I guess thinking is a hardwork! No, I am not disappointed... it just validates my model a bit more!

 

[MagicMarker]

This is my considered opinion. This is no sarcasm.

Politicians have to run the country. They have to be held accountable via elections. They should also be held accountable via public pressure and judicial proceedings, if the situation warrants it. But where Judiciary has historically sided with dictators, judicial action would necessarily be interpreted as though from Deep State (Military, Civil Bureaucracy, & Judiciary combine as in Egypt, etc...).

It takes 10-15 years of continued and unhindered democracy to establish norms after a dictator steps down. This is how it was in South Korea. After three or four elections, the system is stable enough to bring corrupt politicians to account. This is how it happened in Peru, Korea, Brazil, without raising the spectre of military intervention or deep state action.

What we are seeing with NS is a farce, and it is perceived as such. I lost my business in 2014 due to accumulation of losses during Zardari era. I took it on the chin and thought at least Pakistan has gone through one round of elections, & hopefully things will improve. They did improve, but I saw constant interference via proxies like PTI (dharnas & shutdowns) & religious parties (like now). I dropped PTI as the preferred option after the first dharna when it became clear who was pulling the strings.

So, though I see where you are coming from, I can not support an anti-democratic stance when constitution is being used as a mere fig leaf.

Later....

An intelligent pakistani seemed an oxymoron before I read your post.

Imagine the standards if one is considered intelligent for merely stating the obvious that is pretty apparent for rest of the world.

 

[Hellfire]

My Valued Friend,

A post worth not only reading thoughtfully but also deserving reflection and replying with same intellectual vigour that you employed. No wonder I consider you to be a Soldier Scholar!

You have answered all your own questions. So how best to answer a conundrum?

Lips of wisdom must remained sealed, opening only to ears of understanding!

The way I see Pak State is a composite. It is viable and has the potential to become what its true worth is. The same way I percieve India to have the potential to become a great power. But turning a potential into tangible reality requires application of mind and matter... same as in your profession... logistics are the key!

However, in the present framework of managing Pak state affairs is counter-productive in all of its various manifestations. Hence, my suggestion of a 5 Pillars of Wisdom.

Why you ask?

Nothing else will work otherwise. Democracy is no magic bullet.

Kindly, see your own internal affairs. Just going through election cycles and having separation of military, civilian and judicial organs has not completely advanced Human Condition in India as it should have. Yet this is the only form (regardless of its present quality of service delivery, integrity and true strategic outlook with consistency) that can keep the Union together. So you chose the right formula for yourselves. Although I do percieve an emerging threat to this formula which has served you for 70 odd years. But we shall ponder on such when the opportune moment arrives...togther we shall!

Now as I said in my post.. if 50's and 60's Pak could be such a forward looking and advancing state... since it is the same people.. so the Paks can find back their way to that end as well. The current excessive, zealous religiouslity is the by product of apthay and rentiering of state for the benefit of the few.. we both know how systematically the Pak society was conditioned to serve geo-strategic interests of others... the process has not gone out of fashion yet... but a clear decline is visible. Long road to freedom on this one! Hence the 5 Pillars of Wisdom.

Perhaps it is a global disease or something but the quality of politicos is going downhill everywhere. Let us call it the Zeitgeist.....

A state alive from within flourishes without... the fundament issue with Pak is the Idea of Pak has been hijacked without offering a compelling narrative to fill the void. Religion was not the only glue needed to keep the Pak state viable at all. It did serve its purpose...but there was a need for building upon it...which was successfully tried and achieved in 50s and 60s.

Certainly, you know very well from your own reflections, professional exposure and courses... statecraft demands..continuous update of the narrative...adaptive yet rigid.... a difficult to manage paradox...but nobody said it is an easy one. Please, see the emerging narrative building within your own good country...

I shall allow myself the time to understand the dynamics (purely from System Theory perspective) which enabled the certain pillar in Pak to have more savy in affairs of the state.... for now I cann't see it in black and white yet.

As you no doubt have studied...the Crusades lasted so long not because of religious zeal but because there were too many youngmen available and too little economic opportunity or youngwomen. Same is the case of Wickings.. same as the reaon why Europeans went out and colonised the new world, including your part of world....

If we could detach ourselves from our conditioning and biases and enter the mind of the Universe and try to percieve... we perhaps can appreciate why a strong, prosperous and stable, forward looking Pak is in everyone's best interest in South West and South Asia all the way to cold borders of the Bear...

I sincerely hope that South West and South Asia can find a compelling reason to work for economic growth and development.... Civilisationally it is the burden on these states to revive and do the right thing by their people. Only then ye shall be equals to the rest of the West! At the moment, I am sorry to observe, none is doing anything of the sorts...

Now over to you, kind sir, for retort!

Regards,

Mangus

PS. I started a thread about the Indian potential with a straight forward, rather globally accepted scenario... with a few questions of Hows... but none took the effort to answer... I guess thinking is a hardwork! No, I am not disappointed... it just validates my model a bit more!

Exquisite.

I am, in agreement with the above, without any 'retort'.

Please consider a positive rating from my side, alas, I do not have the privilege to award one.

@MilSpec @nair I tag you to read the initial write up I replied to and this one. Truly worth 'munching' over.