Pakistan between fragility and resilience
A more pragmatic and sustainable relationship with America, respecting its sovereignty and interests, will be Pakistan's major objective in 2012
By Tariq Osman Hyder, Special to Gulf NewsPublished: 00:00 December 31, 2011
Pakistan between fragility and resilience
Pakistan stands out in the Muslim world as a functioning democracy of 180 million and a nuclear power. Abroad it is often regarded as a fragile state with unstable internal dynamics and difficult relations with the United States and its neighbours Afghanistan and India. How far is this correct?
The country has been ruled alternatively by civilian and military governments. The relationship between the two has yet to find a definitive equilibrium. The military by default or design has become the most organised institution in the country with a great stake in the survival and progress of the state. The judiciary has alternated between passivity and now activism under a chief justice restored through public protests.
On the political side, service delivery and inter-party cooperation for the greater good of democratic consolidation has been a longtime coming though now developing . The ruling Pakistan Peoples Party government of President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani continues to be a national force to reckon with but is under pressure for not improving governance and curbing corruption. The economy has been hard-hit by rising extremism and terrorism fuelled by the 10-year American/Nato occupation of Afghanistan. A war to which former president Pervez Musharraf allied Pakistan in the face of public opposition.
There has been speculation that the government may be under threat from the army annoyed by an anti-military memo of uncertain origin handed over to a top American General, or from the Supreme Court investigating the same document. Discussions between Gilani and Army Chief General Ashfaq Kiyani rule that out. The Supreme Court has made it plain that it is adamantly against a return of military rule. The military, while preferring any government delivering a strong economy, has learnt that when in power it did not lead to sustainable solutions. While tensions persist, the system has evolved its own checks and balances.
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On the political front, Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League continues to dominate the largest province of Punjab but its performance has not been such to point to a clear alternative. However waiting in the wings is Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (Pakistan Movement for Justice) party with his image of incorruptibility appealing to the liberals, youth and also to the religious right, who like most Pakistanis are tired of a war on terrorism at America's behest. Khan stands for the possibility of change. His well- attended rallies, most recently in Karachi attest to his rising popularity and the government may decide that early elections in 2012 will not let him build up more steam.
Boon and bane
That political alternatives exist, impacts on every political party, and epitomises the difference between forms and realities in Pakistan. Between the image abroad and the resilience on the ground. Sixty per cent of Pakistanis live in rural areas. High global prices for rice and wheat have been a boon. Overseas workers remittances are at a record high. Rising energy prices coupled with shortages of gas and electricity are hurting industry and the economy and the middle class is getting squeezed as elsewhere during a global recession. But these point to deficiencies in policy foresight, planning and implementation that can be remedied.
This year relations with America have plummeted. First a CIA agent killed two Pakistanis. America demanded his return without trial. Next a helicopter task force swooped down and killed Osama Bin Laden without prior intimation. Then while negotiating with the Taliban in Afghanistan, whom US Vice-President Joe Biden termed are not enemies, America demanded that Pakistan take on the Haqqani group which was not fighting the Pakistan Army. Finally Nato planes killed 24 Pakistani soldiers guarding a border point on the Afghan border.
Pakistan stopped overland Nato supplies but not the crucial airbridge, closed the CIA airbase used for drone strikes on Pakistani soil, and is reconfiguring its civilian and military budgets to adjust to reduced American assistance. A more pragmatic and sustainable relationship with America, respecting its sovereignty and interests, will be a major objective in 2012. Even China, Pakistan's main ally advises continued engagement with America. Pakistan is trying to improve relations with India to make space to fight terrorism and deal with an unstable Afghanistan as the Americans retreat. India agreed to restart the peace dialogue it froze after the Mumbai terrorist attack. Given further Indian response the bilateral environment should improve.
Pakistan despite problems, displays the resilience to adapt. It will remain a key country for its ally China, for America trying to exit Afghanistan, and for its neighbours, Iran beleaguered by the nuclear issue and Afghanistan seeking stability. India too may realise that to reach its true potential it needs improved relations. 2012 promises to be a better year for Pakistan.
Ambassador Tariq Osman Hyder is retired Pakistani diplomat.
A more pragmatic and sustainable relationship with America, respecting its sovereignty and interests, will be Pakistan's major objective in 2012
By Tariq Osman Hyder, Special to Gulf NewsPublished: 00:00 December 31, 2011
Pakistan between fragility and resilience
Pakistan stands out in the Muslim world as a functioning democracy of 180 million and a nuclear power. Abroad it is often regarded as a fragile state with unstable internal dynamics and difficult relations with the United States and its neighbours Afghanistan and India. How far is this correct?
The country has been ruled alternatively by civilian and military governments. The relationship between the two has yet to find a definitive equilibrium. The military by default or design has become the most organised institution in the country with a great stake in the survival and progress of the state. The judiciary has alternated between passivity and now activism under a chief justice restored through public protests.
On the political side, service delivery and inter-party cooperation for the greater good of democratic consolidation has been a longtime coming though now developing . The ruling Pakistan Peoples Party government of President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani continues to be a national force to reckon with but is under pressure for not improving governance and curbing corruption. The economy has been hard-hit by rising extremism and terrorism fuelled by the 10-year American/Nato occupation of Afghanistan. A war to which former president Pervez Musharraf allied Pakistan in the face of public opposition.
There has been speculation that the government may be under threat from the army annoyed by an anti-military memo of uncertain origin handed over to a top American General, or from the Supreme Court investigating the same document. Discussions between Gilani and Army Chief General Ashfaq Kiyani rule that out. The Supreme Court has made it plain that it is adamantly against a return of military rule. The military, while preferring any government delivering a strong economy, has learnt that when in power it did not lead to sustainable solutions. While tensions persist, the system has evolved its own checks and balances.
Article continues below
On the political front, Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League continues to dominate the largest province of Punjab but its performance has not been such to point to a clear alternative. However waiting in the wings is Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (Pakistan Movement for Justice) party with his image of incorruptibility appealing to the liberals, youth and also to the religious right, who like most Pakistanis are tired of a war on terrorism at America's behest. Khan stands for the possibility of change. His well- attended rallies, most recently in Karachi attest to his rising popularity and the government may decide that early elections in 2012 will not let him build up more steam.
Boon and bane
That political alternatives exist, impacts on every political party, and epitomises the difference between forms and realities in Pakistan. Between the image abroad and the resilience on the ground. Sixty per cent of Pakistanis live in rural areas. High global prices for rice and wheat have been a boon. Overseas workers remittances are at a record high. Rising energy prices coupled with shortages of gas and electricity are hurting industry and the economy and the middle class is getting squeezed as elsewhere during a global recession. But these point to deficiencies in policy foresight, planning and implementation that can be remedied.
This year relations with America have plummeted. First a CIA agent killed two Pakistanis. America demanded his return without trial. Next a helicopter task force swooped down and killed Osama Bin Laden without prior intimation. Then while negotiating with the Taliban in Afghanistan, whom US Vice-President Joe Biden termed are not enemies, America demanded that Pakistan take on the Haqqani group which was not fighting the Pakistan Army. Finally Nato planes killed 24 Pakistani soldiers guarding a border point on the Afghan border.
Pakistan stopped overland Nato supplies but not the crucial airbridge, closed the CIA airbase used for drone strikes on Pakistani soil, and is reconfiguring its civilian and military budgets to adjust to reduced American assistance. A more pragmatic and sustainable relationship with America, respecting its sovereignty and interests, will be a major objective in 2012. Even China, Pakistan's main ally advises continued engagement with America. Pakistan is trying to improve relations with India to make space to fight terrorism and deal with an unstable Afghanistan as the Americans retreat. India agreed to restart the peace dialogue it froze after the Mumbai terrorist attack. Given further Indian response the bilateral environment should improve.
Pakistan despite problems, displays the resilience to adapt. It will remain a key country for its ally China, for America trying to exit Afghanistan, and for its neighbours, Iran beleaguered by the nuclear issue and Afghanistan seeking stability. India too may realise that to reach its true potential it needs improved relations. 2012 promises to be a better year for Pakistan.
Ambassador Tariq Osman Hyder is retired Pakistani diplomat.
