Pakistan becomes the 5th Fastest growing economy in the world

[Nilgiri]

India has low human development too.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index

Medium Human development according to the UN.

Improved by 5 HDI points compared to last year. For BD it was improvement of 3. Pakistan (in low human development category) it was 2.

India does better than both in level and human development pace.

Many of Bangladesh's base development indices (from the BBS) are questionable given its high levels of corruption, even for the developing world. It is probably in reality less developed than Pakistan.

 

[supun1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index

Medium Human development according to the UN.

Improved by 5 HDI points compared to last year. For BD it was improvement of 3. Pakistan (in low human development category) it was 2.

India does better than both in level and human development pace.

aren't I the fool!

I never checked the list, I just assumed all the countries in south Asia were in the low category for some reason.

Even Bangladesh is in the medium category now! and both Pakistan and Nepal will be soon! that's a really good improvement.

 

[Nilgiri]

aren't I the fool!

I never checked the list, I just assumed all the countries in south Asia were in the low category for some reason.

Even Bangladesh is in the medium category now! and both Pakistan and Nepal will be soon! that's a really good improvement.

The categories are just arbitrary cut off levels. All these countries can be doing much better. Will be interesting to see what the upcoming UN HDR report contains.

 

[SrNair]

Poppycock. That is such a cliche. Okay so there is no 'free lunch'. Right lemme give you a list.

Poland.
Latvia
Slovakia
Romania
Bulgaria

Since early 2003 these basket cases are not only having free lunches but they are eating cakes as well. Do you know the amount of subsidy that EU has pumped into theses countries? It runs into $100s of billions. In adddition the citizens of these countries have been allowed without any visa or entry restrictions to get millions of jobs inside EU at full EU rates.

The general idea is to lift these underdeveloped Eastern European states to the same level as Western Europe with Germany, France and UK foting the bill. Why did they do this? One South Asian migrant arrives and they have cops searching for him. The reason is strategic. Western Europe needs to bring Eastern Europe within it's orbit and wider NATO bulwark.

Going back to post WW2 United States launched the massive Marshall PLan to lift Western Europe up from the bootstraps. Again $10s of billions was transferred to get Western Europe up after the destruction of WW2. So countries do employ economic devices as part of their strategic objectives.

And talking of free lunches even the rich get lunches on the house with cakes thrown in. Which country is the largest recipient of US aid every year? Some poor African country maybe? Nah, Israel. Go figure. Geopolitics at play?


Talking of lunches- - do you like Greek food? Well here have a look at cost of free Greek lunch. Yes, $206 billion., think about that. That easily four times more then CPEC and iven to a country - Greece that has smaller population than New Delhi. The fact is if you have rich and powerful friends then 'free lunches' do happen.

@Genesis

Whatever it is I would take the words of the Milton Friedman for face value .A world renowned Nobel winner.

And nor we are EU .

 

[SrNair]

Have you? This is an internet forum, not a senate hearing.

Also, you have a pretty high opinion of yourself, we are the biggest trading partner of most of the world, including almost all of the developed world, like Germany, America and Japan. We have the second highest military spending and it's not close, we are one of two nations to currently field a fifth generation fighter, and we are the second fastest growing economy, despite being the second biggest economy already.

I am not saying India can't cause problems, clearly it can, hence my statement, but that time is not now. You can say you can export missiles to Vietnam, but in the world of arms deals, nothing is set in stone, especially a country like Vietnam. Who is very much like Turkey, want to get out of the orbit but is only too aware that they are right next to the big bad wolf. Look how that went. Even from your own experience, I seen countless articles that said that frigate deal is done, you know who's making them now?

As to the economist, I said it doesn't always make sense, but it happens. If not then Japan and America should really tone down the rhetoric, and for that matter India too, since we are also your biggest trading partner.


Really, this is based on what? You can't possibly have any evidence, for one thing, China African relationship hasn't reached critical yet. When China and the West really starts to compete for geopolitical influence, then you can make a judgement. For now, Africa is just a trading partner, and being that it is only economics at this point, what did you expect.

I never said China hate money, just that at some point in the future, in South Asia, a Pakistani friendship will mean so much more than money.

Nor I claimed that we are against those nation ,we are spending billions for nothing etc.
It was you that claimed.
But all those still not enough to contain India ,a nuclear power ,a major economy having highest growth rate ,one having world largest military ,having every growing indigenous MIC etc.
You are still too depends on the exports .
That too even with US and Japan.
But Vietnam has her own strength and in near future if all goes well and if there is no
compromise from Chinese part then may be nuke tech will evolve in Vietnam .May be.

India is not ASEAN or some small nation .

 

[Khan_21]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index

Medium Human development according to the UN.

Improved by 5 HDI points compared to last year. For BD it was improvement of 3. Pakistan (in low human development category) it was 2.

India does better than both in level and human development pace.

Many of Bangladesh's base development indices (from the BBS) are questionable given its high levels of corruption, even for the developing world. It is probably in reality less developed than Pakistan.

http://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/370759-Pakistan-ahead-of-India-in-Inclusive-Development-I

You generally tend to overlook the indexes where Pakistan is ahead .

 

[Nilgiri]

http://dunyanews.tv/en/Pakistan/370759-Pakistan-ahead-of-India-in-Inclusive-Development-I

You generally tend to overlook the indexes where Pakistan is ahead .

Cmon bhai, we have talked so much about this before already many times. The person I am replying to was specifically asking about human development index (UN also does the LDC qualification). I even said the categories are arbitrary and that Pakistan is most likely more developed than BD in this index because of BBS corruption (which imho inflates BD health metrics).

There is much left to be desired in all indices, be it their source data (both quality and recentness), weighting of components and even methodology sometimes. I actually prefer to compare source data directly (provided quality and reliability is decent) rather than making an index for it.

End of the story is that India and Pakistan are both not LDCs and are improving their development as time goes on....hopefully the pace picks up in both.

We both are so seriously so far behind that it shouldn't matter which perspective you personally prefer/choose in analysing who is a little ahead in the "race".

 

[My-Analogous]

Holy mother of mercy ,How the F*** the public debt went up from 2007..
Zardari and his Co have raped this country :-( and we still let thugs do politics

Yes it is and since 2014 this thing flowing as its original path set by Musharraf

 

[MultaniGuy]

Hopefully Pakistan will become an Asian tiger as Nawaz Sharif said.
Pakistani patriots should study the Meiji restoration in Japan.
Look at Japan which has a population and territorially less than Pakistan, yet is so advanced technologically.

 

[SDS1]

But wont Pakistan earn money for each time China uses Pakistan land to takes goods to China ?

that money wont be enough, in terms China take all Pak market, be bus / truck/ be cement etc....all will be manufactured by Chinese companies

 

[Tiger Genie]

Sri Lankans made mistakes with their investments. Their forecasts were wrong. Not China's Fault.

You don't blame the World Bank or IMF when the Mexico defaulted on their loans.

People who have money want to make more money. And they have the power to get that money back, even if they have to hire some guys to break a few knee caps.

I agree with you partially - ofcourse Sri Lanka should have been more careful.
The part about WB IMF is invalid - they do not force you to fork over ownership like China did.

 

[GumNaam]

enough with all this debt rising crap, it's been shown a thousand times that most is investments, not loans!

 

[Shaji Pappan]

enough with all this debt rising crap, it's been shown a thousand times that most is investments, not loans!

If we consider the original $46 billion CPEC, Infrastructure spending is almost $11-12 billion.. Out of that only $3.8 billion is given by China and that is a loan.. Rest of the project is funded by loans from ADB,WORLD BANK etc.. That means full infrastructure spending is through loans..
Now about Power projects, the debt trap come into play in this section.. I will explain the structure of it.. Most of their spending are through debt & equities in a ratio of 80%/20%.. Pakistan govt is liable to pay 27% returns for this 20% equities.. Rest of 80% are loans..Chinese banks giving loans to Chinese contractors.. They are constructing power plants.. They will get returns through electricity tariffs for the span of next 30 years.. It looks like an investment.. But.. Your govt given sovereign guarantee to these projects.. That complicated everything.. That means if any project fails,Your govt is responsible for taking the liabilities themselves.. That means didn't get most of the benefits you get from a loan ,but you are liable to pay back the invested amount with big interest rate..
Read this..

http://fp.brecorder.com/2017/01/20170126133192/

CPEC sovereign guarantees may not augur well for budget

Sovereign guarantees extended by the federal government for China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) energy and infrastructure projects may have serious implications on the budget as well as on the economy. Sources revealed that if the government procures electricity from power plants at a higher cost than it sells to the people the difference would be the liability of the government.

The government would have to increase taxes to pay off the liability through a higher allocation for power subsidy. As many as 14 power generation projects are being implemented under the CPEC with over 7000MW: 5000MW projects are to be completed by 2018 and the remaining beyond 2018. The government is said to have extended sovereign guarantees for all these projects.

An official toldBusiness Recorder that sovereign guarantees are debt and an increase would actually raise publicly guaranteed debt, which impacts negatively on the budget in the form of higher fiscal deficit and taxes. When contacted, an official of Finance Ministry said that role of Finance Division is one of approver and it is the line Ministry that submits a proposal seeking sovereign guarantee. Ministry of Planning officials maintain that sovereign guarantees are extended by the government under the law.

Dr Salman Shah, former Advisor to Prime Minister on Finance, said there was a considerable increase in the number of sovereign guarantees as a consequence of CPEC. He added that in 2016 sovereign guarantees amounted to $1.3 billion while in 2012 these guarantees totaled $0.2 billion.

Dr Shah said that if any project fails or is damaged, the state would have to pick up the entire liability which would increase the budget deficit. Economist Dr Ashfaque Hasan Khan concurred and said that sovereign guarantees are part of debt and liabilities. He said that increase in sovereign guarantees actually raises publicly guaranteed debt which impacts negatively on the budget. He said sovereign guarantees increase the budget deficit which ultimately negatively impacts on the general public because it implies raising taxes or imposing new taxes and/or borrowing.

"Sovereign guarantees are included in contingent liabilities and the government pays from the budget which fuels the budget deficit. Public debt is sum of public and publicly guaranteed debt, the IMF loans and short-term debt," he said. He said that sovereign guarantees have increased dramatically due to CPEC.

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

I agree with you partially - ofcourse Sri Lanka should have been more careful.
The part about WB IMF is invalid - they do not force you to fork over ownership like China did.

China isn't actually forcing them to hand over ownership.

The Sri Lankans are offering to transfer ownership in lei of repayments. But the investments that were done don't warranty just the transfer of the infrastructure, China will want ownership of other projects.

 

[BDforever]

After India,Filipinos,Chinese and Vietnamese Pakistan ranks 5th among the countries with fastest gdp growth rate.
However the current Governments liberalization policies of the economy are appreciative as they are but countries like Iran and Russia have not yet taken part in the economic corridor even though they've got the policy drivers to do so,The government of Pakistan needs to realize this and invite these countries.

Downsides for Pakistan's economy
-Unemployment is hugely messed up ,Almost at 6 percent .
To get rid of this ,Pakistan needs to start industrializing its export market and create jobs in different sectors,Most of our eatables like fruits and Rice needs to be industrialized and need to get a helping hand from the Government in the private sector..
Production needs to go up and is well below par ,More to add ,we need to give our economy some living space because we're geo economically restricted.
Government needs to move into central asian states and do it now to increase its trade..
-Debt
“Essentially, the economy is embarking on a gamble that the surge in externally-funded investment will generate sufficient growth to allow the economy to pay back its foreign loans,” said BMI. “The economy could find itself in the difficult position of having to repay large foreign loans with insufficient export revenues, similar to the situation that Sri Lanka currently finds itself in.”



Let's hope our Government pays back its debt through a strong GDP growth rate which is expected,but in order to do so ,We need to raise our trade barriers ,create employment and keep the inflation down among other macroeconomic reforms..
Question -1
Can Industrialization help Pakistan?

PS: I haven't ever read economics ,So kindly ignore mistakes if any.

according IMF,World Bank; BD had around 6.5% GDP growth. it is very confusing report