Second coming
A brilliant cricketer hopes that decency and charisma can overturn a corrupt political order
Nov 12th 2011 | ISLAMABAD | from the print edition
AS A magnificent fast bowler, Imran Khan terrorised batsmen. Now a politician, he told an adoring crowd late last month that one of his feared inswingers would knock out both President Asif Zardari of the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the main opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif. The next general election is due by early 2013 but likely to be called before that, possibly as early as the spring.
Mr Khan captained the Pakistan cricket team to a famous world-cup victory in 1992, a moment Pakistanis still talk about. For 15 years he has tried to apply his looks and charisma to a political career. Until recently his efforts have underwhelmed. But after a huge and vibrant rally in Lahore, capital of Punjab province and the countrys second-biggest city, the mainstream parties can no longer ignore him. Some 100,000 cheering supporters showed up.
Mr Khan dreams of leading a mass movement of motivated Pakistanis calling for an Augean clean-up of the countrys abysmally corrupt politics. He adds a strong dose of conservative (though not radical) Islam to the mix. Meanwhile he calls for Pakistan to walk away from its stormy alliance with the United States and the war on terror: America, not the Islamist militants, is to blame for the regions violence and instability.
The message now resonates among urban, middle-class types such as those at the rally in Lahore. Many had not previously engaged in politics. But Mr Khan also attracted others, from mullahs to lorry drivers. Now no longer so young himselfhe turns 59 this monthMr Khan seems to appeal especially to 18- to 30-year-olds, who make up a quarter of the population of 177m.
It helps that many Pakistanis are deeply disillusioned with the countrys political class. They see a kleptocratic state, teetering on the edge of anarchy and serving only a ruling cabal of politicians, bureaucrats and the military men who operate in the shadows. There was a time when all the mainstream parties came knocking at Mr Khans door for support. He now represents a real threat. In particular, Lahore is the home base of Mr Sharif, leader of the conservative Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) and a former prime minister whom the army ousted in 1999. This is one reason why the soldiers are keen on Mr Khan; another is his anti-Americanism.
Mr Khans appeal is that of an anti-politician, someone not part of the oily system. Raising funds from the public, he built a university in a rural area and a cancer hospital where rich and poor are treated. It gives him a moral standing above the countrys tawdry politicians. And also, say his critics, a Messiah complex.
Certainly, Mr Khan can come across as naive. Make corruption disappear, he says, and you have solved all the countrys political and economic problems. He also believes he can negotiate with the extremists, bringing peace to the country within 90 days. Some of his policies, such as electing police sheriffs and using traditional tribal justice to settle local disputes, could go scarily wrong.
Messiahs are not enough in Pakistans electoral system, where elections are won constituency by constituency, and party machines are all. The two established parties have formidable organisations. Their candidates have the connections to provide constituents protection from predatory police and the vagaries of the local courts. Mr Khan wants to overturn these corrupt relationships. But his own political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice), has only ever managed to win a single seat. Mr Khan predicts a political tsunami carrying him to power. But unless he shows a firmer grasp of both organisation and policy, the countrys brilliantly awful politicians will continue to milk state funds to run their regional fiefs. Arif Nizami, the editor of Pakistan Today, says that one blockbuster rally does not mean that the political game has changed.
Mr Khan faces a dilemma over whether to field political outsiders at the next election or bring familiar faces into his party. They would help pull in some votes, says Cyril Almeida, an analyst, but would alienate those seeking a new politics. An alliance with Mr Sharif would almost guarantee election victory. Yet, for now, Mr Khan is squarely targeting Mr Sharifs core supporters in the east of the country.
Opinion polls still have Mr Sharif well out in front. But they also indicate rising support for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. One unpublished survey in the summer put its national support at an astonishing 20%, which is level with Mr Zardaris PPP and only eight points behind PML-N. The poll showed that Mr Khan also has support in the north-west, though more so in the non-Pushtun areas there. Ethnic Pushtuns, who have borne the brunt of extremist violence, appear to be put off by what they see as his weak stance against militants, the poll found. They are not swayed by Mr Khans message of hope. But in Lahore last month a lot of people seemed to believe that things can improve, and the Khan bandwagon rolls on.
Pakistan and the rise of Imran Khan: Second coming | The Economist
A brilliant cricketer hopes that decency and charisma can overturn a corrupt political order
Nov 12th 2011 | ISLAMABAD | from the print edition
AS A magnificent fast bowler, Imran Khan terrorised batsmen. Now a politician, he told an adoring crowd late last month that one of his feared inswingers would knock out both President Asif Zardari of the ruling Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the main opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif. The next general election is due by early 2013 but likely to be called before that, possibly as early as the spring.
Mr Khan captained the Pakistan cricket team to a famous world-cup victory in 1992, a moment Pakistanis still talk about. For 15 years he has tried to apply his looks and charisma to a political career. Until recently his efforts have underwhelmed. But after a huge and vibrant rally in Lahore, capital of Punjab province and the countrys second-biggest city, the mainstream parties can no longer ignore him. Some 100,000 cheering supporters showed up.
Mr Khan dreams of leading a mass movement of motivated Pakistanis calling for an Augean clean-up of the countrys abysmally corrupt politics. He adds a strong dose of conservative (though not radical) Islam to the mix. Meanwhile he calls for Pakistan to walk away from its stormy alliance with the United States and the war on terror: America, not the Islamist militants, is to blame for the regions violence and instability.
The message now resonates among urban, middle-class types such as those at the rally in Lahore. Many had not previously engaged in politics. But Mr Khan also attracted others, from mullahs to lorry drivers. Now no longer so young himselfhe turns 59 this monthMr Khan seems to appeal especially to 18- to 30-year-olds, who make up a quarter of the population of 177m.
It helps that many Pakistanis are deeply disillusioned with the countrys political class. They see a kleptocratic state, teetering on the edge of anarchy and serving only a ruling cabal of politicians, bureaucrats and the military men who operate in the shadows. There was a time when all the mainstream parties came knocking at Mr Khans door for support. He now represents a real threat. In particular, Lahore is the home base of Mr Sharif, leader of the conservative Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) and a former prime minister whom the army ousted in 1999. This is one reason why the soldiers are keen on Mr Khan; another is his anti-Americanism.
Mr Khans appeal is that of an anti-politician, someone not part of the oily system. Raising funds from the public, he built a university in a rural area and a cancer hospital where rich and poor are treated. It gives him a moral standing above the countrys tawdry politicians. And also, say his critics, a Messiah complex.
Certainly, Mr Khan can come across as naive. Make corruption disappear, he says, and you have solved all the countrys political and economic problems. He also believes he can negotiate with the extremists, bringing peace to the country within 90 days. Some of his policies, such as electing police sheriffs and using traditional tribal justice to settle local disputes, could go scarily wrong.
Messiahs are not enough in Pakistans electoral system, where elections are won constituency by constituency, and party machines are all. The two established parties have formidable organisations. Their candidates have the connections to provide constituents protection from predatory police and the vagaries of the local courts. Mr Khan wants to overturn these corrupt relationships. But his own political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice), has only ever managed to win a single seat. Mr Khan predicts a political tsunami carrying him to power. But unless he shows a firmer grasp of both organisation and policy, the countrys brilliantly awful politicians will continue to milk state funds to run their regional fiefs. Arif Nizami, the editor of Pakistan Today, says that one blockbuster rally does not mean that the political game has changed.
Mr Khan faces a dilemma over whether to field political outsiders at the next election or bring familiar faces into his party. They would help pull in some votes, says Cyril Almeida, an analyst, but would alienate those seeking a new politics. An alliance with Mr Sharif would almost guarantee election victory. Yet, for now, Mr Khan is squarely targeting Mr Sharifs core supporters in the east of the country.
Opinion polls still have Mr Sharif well out in front. But they also indicate rising support for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. One unpublished survey in the summer put its national support at an astonishing 20%, which is level with Mr Zardaris PPP and only eight points behind PML-N. The poll showed that Mr Khan also has support in the north-west, though more so in the non-Pushtun areas there. Ethnic Pushtuns, who have borne the brunt of extremist violence, appear to be put off by what they see as his weak stance against militants, the poll found. They are not swayed by Mr Khans message of hope. But in Lahore last month a lot of people seemed to believe that things can improve, and the Khan bandwagon rolls on.
Pakistan and the rise of Imran Khan: Second coming | The Economist
