Pak warned of dire consequences if India attacked: Ex-Obama aide

[Bhairava]

That does not answer the question: Are we prepared or not?

I guess we're not. Not by a long distance.

What you are saying is a worst-case scenario.What I'm saying is the most probable scenario.

 

[Rig Vedic]

The theory failed during Kargil war.

The theory failed during the Cuban missile crisis.

In fact, it's not even a theory. It's a mere hypothesis which has been proven wrong time and again.

What theory failed?

The fact is that Pakistan was able to attack in Kargil, attack the Indian parliament, and attack Mumbai from behind a Chinese supplied nuclear shield.

It is true that Pakistan has been descending into Jihadist anarchy, but we have to plan for the worst case scenario.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

If you give them a choice between severely losing face (and thus losing legitimacy in front of their people)... or declaring war, the answer will be the same as before.

They have the third choice too:

To not let their people know that they actually lost face. Being an authoritarian regime, this will be the easiest option for them.

 

[Bhairava]

India should not make any assumptions. It is wise to plan for a worst-case scenario.

I agree.

But if another attack happens, I am ready to face defeat going to war but not sit back. And this is when the Chinese intervene in full force which I think for all possible reasons will not happen.

 

[Rig Vedic]

Now the only problem is, what does a cost/benefit analysis from the viewpoint of the CPC actually look like?

As an authoritarian government, their "costs and benefits" are not exactly the same as you might expect.

If you give them a choice between severely losing face (and thus losing legitimacy in front of their people)... or declaring war, the answer will be the same as before.

Interesting and valid point, it must be taken into account.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Interesting and valid point, it must be taken into account.

read post 48

 

[Rig Vedic]

I agree.

But if another attack happens, I am ready to face defeat going to war but not sit back. And this is when the Chinese intervene in full force which I think for all possible reasons will not happen.

There are many ways to respond, an immediate and overt response may not always be optimal.

 

[Bhairava]

.....

If you give them a choice between severely losing face (and thus losing legitimacy in front of their people)... or declaring war, the answer will be the same as before.

And what face does the CPC exactly lose if India goes to war with Pakistan ?

IS Pakistan a province of China ?

Spare me the taller than......rhetoric. CPC & majority Chinese are a whole lot wiser than you.

The most China will do in a Indo-Pak war is step up the arms supply, do the shouting job in UN. That's it & we know how to take care of it.

Interesting and valid point, it must be taken into account.

it's not valid.

The normal Chinese in Shanghai or Guandong could not care less what happened to Pakistan.

 

[Rig Vedic]

They have the third choice too:

To not let their people know that they actually lost face. Being an authoritarian regime, this will be the easiest option for them.

Yes again a very valid point. If they can keep their people in the dark, they don't lose face.

But as far as India is concerned we have to be prepared for the worst case.

 

[CaptainJackSparrow]

Yes again a very valid point. If they can keep their people in the dark, they don't lose face.

But as far as India is concerned we have to be prepared for the worst case.

Indeed....

---------- Post added at 12:20 PM ---------- Previous post was at 12:18 PM ----------

Point is, CCP can never lose face in front of their people. Their authoritarian rule will inevitably come to their rescue.

The Chinese people won't even know that their govt. lost any face in the first place.

Problem solved for CCP.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

And what face does the CPC exactly lose if India goes to war with Pakistan ?

IS Pakistan a province of China ?

Depends on the circumstances of course.

If you think that China doesn't hold any interests in Pakistan worth defending (especially recently), then go for it.

 

[StandForInsaf]

And what face does the CPC exactly lose if India goes to war with Pakistan ?

IS Pakistan a province of China ?

Spare me the taller than......rhetoric. CPC & majority Chinese are a whole lot wiser than you.

The most China will do in a Indo-Pak war is step up the arms supply. That's it.



it's not valid.

The normal Chinese in Shanghai or Guandong could not care less what happened to Pakistan.

China is our brotherly country you don't need to worry about her ,
the thing is you have to choose your path that will determine your future relations/wars with Pakistan.

 

[Bang Galore]

Well, you can test that theory out for yourself.

Pakistan has continuously been lowering the nuclear threshold, by bringing in Nasr for example.

As the Economist said, it is "The most dangerous border in the world". Does the Indian Government dare?

Lowering nuclear thresholds is a double edged sword. Indian planners, when & if they decide to strike will have to account for such behavioral tendencies within the Pakistani establishment.Any strike then would have to be assumed as having a nuclear response contingency planned for & the Pakistani establishment will have to decide whether an limited Indian attack warrants a decision to commit mass suicide by Pakistan.

No country can indefinitely allow an adversary to set the level of escalation at points of their convenience. Sometimes one has to decide that the threat of a terrible end is preferable to terror without end.

 

[Bhairava]

There are many ways to respond, an immediate and overt response may not always be optimal.

......the 'loss of face' given by the chine actually applies in this scenario, our scenario.

 

[Rig Vedic]

it's not valid.

What exactly is not valid?

The normal Chinese in Shanghai or Guandong could not care less what happened to Pakistan.

Maybe, maybe not. But why should we prepare for anything less than a worst case scenario?