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OP ED: The new nexus: Indo-China conflict in Kashmir and implications for Pakistan

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Brother, we have to be strong enough to take them head on :) and prevail
The covid situation has not only exposed the health care management situation but in general the governance, disaster management and coordination on local level. Food and medical security, non existent and disastrous. Two main components during a war like situation. Now imagine a direct conflict situation. Getting strong is not just economically; that's just one part of it. It's the re-hauling of whole system that needs a revamp. But having said that, i am of opinion that India will try to divert the internal pressure. And also CPEC factor, GB/AK is gonna be more in focus in upcoming days.
 
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I agree with the conclusion. Sure, this is an opportune moment to claw back Kashmir but then what?
Perpetuate hostilities, bleed money on the military in a constant state of military preparedness at the cost of a better life for the citizens of Pakistan. Of course, If Pakistan and China can force an Indian capitulation then sure the equation changes completely - by all means take Kashmir. But Pakistan's reality is that a nuclear India will prefer taking all of Pakistan and some of China over capitulation. The era of altering national boundaries by force has ended with the proliferation of nukes.
 
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View attachment 642290
The new nexus: Indo-China conflict in Kashmir and implications for Pakistan


As the conflict between the two giants of Asia culminates the center of that shifts closely to Pakistan and its interest in securing Kashmir and there is something that needs to be said about that dynamic here: despite much of the academic treatment, there is one point that needs to be stated here; India has far greater military presence in Kashmir than Pakistan even if we take other factors such as the ratio of area controlled, key positions to be held and ramifications for each nation into play. However, historically, India has always played the part of stating that it needs to also cater to the Chinese threat and not just Pakistan. Yet, as we saw, Indian military was unprepared for the Chinese build up and so was its political machinery.

We have covered the Indo-China angle before and now let us focus on the possible direction that this new development can take and what does it entail for Pakistan.

View attachment 642291
Permanent troika – the most likely scenario

If we take the Chinese strategy into account it is reasonable to assume that the presence would be a permanent feature. Therefore, India would not just have to deal with Pakistan in Kashmir but also China and any further build up would escalate the situation further. The condition of the Indian economy with mega-corporations does not allow for a friendly environment where India can afford that. I would like to highlight that the same thing happened in the 2001-02 military escalation between India and Pakistan; India had to factor in the economic cost of such tensions as well whereas Pakistan was relatively free of that impact as many businesses started taking their money out from India.

Moreover, China has taken a note from India’s playbook and made this a bi-lateral issue shielding it from the international forum; something India has routinely done with Pakistan. For the purpose of this article, we’re going to sideline the political discussion of this and focus on the strategic implications. Therefore, if India invites international attention to this arena then its own ambition of being taken as a serious contender of power in the world gets challenged and it opens up the door for Pakistan to exploit the issue further.

Implications for Pakistan

It seems like China is there to stay; therefore, Pakistan can have some breathing space because our issue has not been purely military, in that arena Pakistan has always been able to challenge its larger neighbor successfully but economics. With the Chinese presence, Pakistan can focus on developing its economy in order to afford deterrence and develop a much needed large scale reforms without the looming threat of escalation with India over Kashmir and being solely responsible for catering to the region militarily.

A new player?

The South Asian region in which, we can count, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh directly with Afghanistan, Iran and China as closely associated with the geo strategic direction has always been dominated by Indian designs. However, this move makes it so that China would be willing to counter Indian influence in the region, we have already seen that with the Chinese presence in Sri Lanka and possible defense deals with Bangladesh. This move places a further seriousness to the situation as China seems to be willing to be directly involved in conflicts of interests now.

Implications for Pakistan

This places Pakistan at an interesting cross-road here whereby it can do one thing it has done quite successfully in the past: be a bridge. The Chinese-US relations came into place with Pakistan acting as the bridge; here too it can replay that role and get other nations in South Asia to the table to the new center of power and tilt the balance of power in the region. Such a move, if taken correctly, can aid Pakistan economically by better trade deals and strengthen the CPEC project as well.

The countermoves

Over on the Indian side, they seem to have two options; either they engage with China more assertively and that would be done by involving having a greater influence over Afghanistan to place pressure on Pakistan and indirectly China. The other route would be increase influence over Iran and do achieve the same; however, Iran has a much more complicated geostrategic presence and doing so would hamper its next option, which may be more feasible in containing China.

The other option, would be to entail and encourage the US presence in the region by allowing them bases in India to counter the Chinese presence. However, this move would have its own implications; first of all, the US designs may not align with Indian designs because the US interests also entail other nations in the region who would automatically go towards China in case the US appears to be strengthening India. Secondly, the US would not be too fond of India investing in Iran and disturbing the Middle East’s balance of power against its ally KSA which is the natural counter of Iran. Furthermore, such a move would see KSA move towards aiding Pakistan to counter Iran and most importantly, it would hurt India’s image projection of a rising power which projects independence in its foreign policy.

Therefore, I think the more prudent choice would be option one; India can try to pressure Pakistan and therefore China via Afghanistan.

Implications for Pakistan

In such a scenario, it would be wise for Pakistan to improve its relationship with Afghanistan to curb any possibility of such an action. Afghanistan, geographically, stands to benefit from the CPEC project as it is a land locked state and Pakistan directly stands in between it and India. For the foreseeable future, Afghanistan would not seriously consider a forward stance as it needs to focus its security apparatus inwards.

Pakistan’s focus on its own economy and a revised deal with Afghanistan for trade movements through its territory would be a better option. This can be effective in securing a more stable region and take off the pressure of two fronts from Pakistan.

Instability in Pakistan

The third option that India has is to aid the militancy in Pakistan to try to make it more unstable via the support for insurgency in its northern regions and south western regions. This would keep the economic development in the region being curtailed by expenditure for Pakistan to secure the internal situation. This is another possible countermove available for India and given that the current government is quite open with its belligerence towards Pakistan then it is also a possibility that must be taken seriously.

Implications for Pakistan

For Pakistan the paramilitary presence in these regions increased before the current stand off so at least the nation stands well prepared for any such moves. However, it can extend the operations against militancy. In the longer run, this would be a heavy cost for the entire region because history has shown that such forces are chaos towards everyone as they are not rational players. In such a scenario, Pakistan needs to develop the civilian counter to possible insurgency by a much needed reform of the police force and political reforms in the regions. Moreover, such a scenario also needs to be catered by good pressure on the international forum of such Indian designs because these threats are an international concern and can move towards changing the perspective of the international community towards India as a ‘soft-power’. Such a direction would also curtail further US based support to the Indian position.

Conclusion

In any given scenario, Pakistan needs to take this time and focus inwards to fix internal issues which have bled the nation dry. A much needed economic reform and reorientation of the nation’s civil bureaucratic system much more seriously.

View presented here are of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the PDF management

Excellent read. Every article on Pak-India relationship that has been written over the past ten years has asked the Pakistani state to focus on its economy if it is to compete against India. The problem is what sort of reforms do you want? How will you bring about the change in the economy that will elevate our living standards? That is the real crux of the problem
 
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I am sorry Jaibi, light problem. Have also updated my incomplete comment. Even forgot putting "t" in covert.


One issue there, you just can't get weapons and start using them. All militaries take time to incorporate them and India hasn't had experience with US systems as much as Pakistan has had.

Yes! That`s the catch! It`s a possibility Indian personnel might not be trained over those technologies.
I guess usually militaries synchronize the completion of personnel training and the delivery of weapons.
 
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Since now that LOC=LAC, Pak needs to be extra careful! And, keep on doing what you have to do, at the least for the time being...

As for India, she’ll lose her patience much earlier than anticipated, and lose the game...

As for President Trump, it’s like God given! “Law&Order” at the domestic front, and “China” at the international arena! A marriage made in the heavens, especially in an election year....

He, who stands up in anger, sits down with a loss - a Turkish proverb

Stay hungry, stay foolish - Steve Jobs at the commencement ceremony at the Stanford University

Only the paranoid survive - Andy Grove, one of the founders of Intel Corp

Let China sleep. When she wakes up the world will cry -Napoleon Bonaparte


The era of altering national boundaries by force has ended with the proliferation of nukes.
Not for India!! The mere thought of losing their Hindu heartlands - once again - paralyzes the Indian leadership the way it did on 02-27....

It`s an interesting article.
I like the part where you say, since China is standing up to India, Pakistan can focus on her internal weaknesses.

Yes India can bring in USAF since they had agreement in the past for using Indian airbases that in turn gave India access to US weaponry that they didn`t have before. I had also shared an article yesterday about the change in US air doctrine where they are using bombers on lengthy routes but flying them from US airbases. If US decides to jump in to the theater, they would surely use that option because that saves them resources. But it would also set US-China war that I think US would never want, keeping in view the military might of Chinese. So if US were to contribute anything to help India, I think it could be those latest weapons India has access to, while also sending a few seasoned experts maybe to guide them on countering China. Of course, the BBC and CNN would also keep firing rounds at China. In the meanwhile, US could exert pressure on China through Hong Kong and Taiwan and also conducting sorties or patrols in the air and water to divert Beijing`s attention from Ladakh. Diplomacy alongside all these options is not out of question. Means, US would participate with a mix of both covert and overt mediums.
The problem in the USA-China equation is using the third party hasn’t worked well so far - Korea, Vietnam etc....
 
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Pakistan may be waiting for financial assistance window from china against india and currently observing things.
 
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Agree, the game is not on the border. What would be interesting to see is internal cracks of India in upcoming days. NRC, 370 didn't go anywhere, Delhi pogrom just happened few weeks ago. It's all on the slow fire, now let's see how Pakistan plays all this.
HIS Rahmet wins over His Azap as far as the Muslims are concerned, according to a Hadis- i Sherif...

Insha’Allah
it’ll only get incrementally easier from now on for the countries like Turkey and Pak! And, as for their opponents, it’ll get proportionally more difficult! Just observe what’s been happening to them in the last two months....

For example, in the Libyan front, the Russian FM and DM’s plane was sent back from Crimea before they reached Istanbul! The entire weight of the Turkish State - nicely complemented by assets in air and sea and on the ground - has been channeled toward the liberation of Libya! And, it’s bearing tremendous fruits....

Pakistan may be waiting for financial assistance window from china against india and currently observing things.
I won’t be surprised if the Pak General Staffs have more inputs than the foreigners are customarily privileged to have in this China-India tussle....
 
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Since now that LOC=LAC, Pak needs to be extra careful! And, keep on doing what you have to do, at the least for the time being...

As for India, she’ll lose her patience much earlier than anticipated, and lose the game...

As for President Trump, it’s like God given! “Law&Order” at the domestic front, and “China” at the international arena! A marriage made in the heavens, especially in an election year....

He, who stands up in anger, sits down with a loss - a Turkish proverb

Stay hungry, stay foolish - Steve Jobs at the commencement ceremony at the Stanford University

Only the paranoid survive - Andy Grove, one of the founders of Intel Corp

Let China sleep. When she wakes up the world will cry -Napoleon Bonaparte



Not for India!! The mere thought of losing their Hindu heartlands - once again - paralyzes the Indian leadership the way it did on 02-27....
Sir I agree.
Although there is this notion that nuclear weapons are a deterrent and there is no possibility of future wars and changing territories, but India herself has been talking about it in their Cold Start doctrine that they would punch in Pakistan while staying under the threshold. So if they think a conventional war is feasible without nuking each other, I guess I believe them this time and we want Kashmir.
 
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HIS Rahmet wins over His Azap as far as the Muslims are concerned, according to a Hadis- i Sherif...

Insha’Allah
it’ll only get incrementally easier from now on for the countries like Turkey and Pak! And, as for their opponents, it’ll get proportionally more difficult! Just observe what’s been happening to them in the last two months....


I won’t be surprised if the Pak General Staffs have more inputs than the foreigners are customarily privileged to have in this China-India tussle....

I think they are already in contact with china and because china has huge investment in pakistan unless china give us signal we will wait.
 
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View attachment 642290
The new nexus: Indo-China conflict in Kashmir and implications for Pakistan


As the conflict between the two giants of Asia culminates the center of that shifts closely to Pakistan and its interest in securing Kashmir and there is something that needs to be said about that dynamic here: despite much of the academic treatment, there is one point that needs to be stated here; India has far greater military presence in Kashmir than Pakistan even if we take other factors such as the ratio of area controlled, key positions to be held and ramifications for each nation into play. However, historically, India has always played the part of stating that it needs to also cater to the Chinese threat and not just Pakistan. Yet, as we saw, Indian military was unprepared for the Chinese build up and so was its political machinery.

We have covered the Indo-China angle before and now let us focus on the possible direction that this new development can take and what does it entail for Pakistan.

View attachment 642291
Permanent troika – the most likely scenario

If we take the Chinese strategy into account it is reasonable to assume that the presence would be a permanent feature. Therefore, India would not just have to deal with Pakistan in Kashmir but also China and any further build up would escalate the situation further. The condition of the Indian economy with mega-corporations does not allow for a friendly environment where India can afford that. I would like to highlight that the same thing happened in the 2001-02 military escalation between India and Pakistan; India had to factor in the economic cost of such tensions as well whereas Pakistan was relatively free of that impact as many businesses started taking their money out from India.

Moreover, China has taken a note from India’s playbook and made this a bi-lateral issue shielding it from the international forum; something India has routinely done with Pakistan. For the purpose of this article, we’re going to sideline the political discussion of this and focus on the strategic implications. Therefore, if India invites international attention to this arena then its own ambition of being taken as a serious contender of power in the world gets challenged and it opens up the door for Pakistan to exploit the issue further.

Implications for Pakistan

It seems like China is there to stay; therefore, Pakistan can have some breathing space because our issue has not been purely military, in that arena Pakistan has always been able to challenge its larger neighbor successfully but economics. With the Chinese presence, Pakistan can focus on developing its economy in order to afford deterrence and develop a much needed large scale reforms without the looming threat of escalation with India over Kashmir and being solely responsible for catering to the region militarily.

A new player?

The South Asian region in which, we can count, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh directly with Afghanistan, Iran and China as closely associated with the geo strategic direction has always been dominated by Indian designs. However, this move makes it so that China would be willing to counter Indian influence in the region, we have already seen that with the Chinese presence in Sri Lanka and possible defense deals with Bangladesh. This move places a further seriousness to the situation as China seems to be willing to be directly involved in conflicts of interests now.

Implications for Pakistan

This places Pakistan at an interesting cross-road here whereby it can do one thing it has done quite successfully in the past: be a bridge. The Chinese-US relations came into place with Pakistan acting as the bridge; here too it can replay that role and get other nations in South Asia to the table to the new center of power and tilt the balance of power in the region. Such a move, if taken correctly, can aid Pakistan economically by better trade deals and strengthen the CPEC project as well.

The countermoves

Over on the Indian side, they seem to have two options; either they engage with China more assertively and that would be done by involving having a greater influence over Afghanistan to place pressure on Pakistan and indirectly China. The other route would be increase influence over Iran and do achieve the same; however, Iran has a much more complicated geostrategic presence and doing so would hamper its next option, which may be more feasible in containing China.

The other option, would be to entail and encourage the US presence in the region by allowing them bases in India to counter the Chinese presence. However, this move would have its own implications; first of all, the US designs may not align with Indian designs because the US interests also entail other nations in the region who would automatically go towards China in case the US appears to be strengthening India. Secondly, the US would not be too fond of India investing in Iran and disturbing the Middle East’s balance of power against its ally KSA which is the natural counter of Iran. Furthermore, such a move would see KSA move towards aiding Pakistan to counter Iran and most importantly, it would hurt India’s image projection of a rising power which projects independence in its foreign policy.

Therefore, I think the more prudent choice would be option one; India can try to pressure Pakistan and therefore China via Afghanistan.

Implications for Pakistan

In such a scenario, it would be wise for Pakistan to improve its relationship with Afghanistan to curb any possibility of such an action. Afghanistan, geographically, stands to benefit from the CPEC project as it is a land locked state and Pakistan directly stands in between it and India. For the foreseeable future, Afghanistan would not seriously consider a forward stance as it needs to focus its security apparatus inwards.

Pakistan’s focus on its own economy and a revised deal with Afghanistan for trade movements through its territory would be a better option. This can be effective in securing a more stable region and take off the pressure of two fronts from Pakistan.

Instability in Pakistan

The third option that India has is to aid the militancy in Pakistan to try to make it more unstable via the support for insurgency in its northern regions and south western regions. This would keep the economic development in the region being curtailed by expenditure for Pakistan to secure the internal situation. This is another possible countermove available for India and given that the current government is quite open with its belligerence towards Pakistan then it is also a possibility that must be taken seriously.

Implications for Pakistan

For Pakistan the paramilitary presence in these regions increased before the current stand off so at least the nation stands well prepared for any such moves. However, it can extend the operations against militancy. In the longer run, this would be a heavy cost for the entire region because history has shown that such forces are chaos towards everyone as they are not rational players. In such a scenario, Pakistan needs to develop the civilian counter to possible insurgency by a much needed reform of the police force and political reforms in the regions. Moreover, such a scenario also needs to be catered by good pressure on the international forum of such Indian designs because these threats are an international concern and can move towards changing the perspective of the international community towards India as a ‘soft-power’. Such a direction would also curtail further US based support to the Indian position.

Conclusion

In any given scenario, Pakistan needs to take this time and focus inwards to fix internal issues which have bled the nation dry. A much needed economic reform and reorientation of the nation’s civil bureaucratic system much more seriously.

View presented here are of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the PDF management



Excellent thread. Pakistan needs to play its card carefully. No need to rush.

I think India has put itself in a difficult situation. The only way to reverse all of this is , if the Supreme Court of India takes down article 370 as violation fo constitution and brings back the status quo in Jammu and Kashmir. This will calm every one down. It will also be face saving for Modi government.
 
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View attachment 642290
The new nexus: Indo-China conflict in Kashmir and implications for Pakistan


As the conflict between the two giants of Asia culminates the center of that shifts closely to Pakistan and its interest in securing Kashmir and there is something that needs to be said about that dynamic here: despite much of the academic treatment, there is one point that needs to be stated here; India has far greater military presence in Kashmir than Pakistan even if we take other factors such as the ratio of area controlled, key positions to be held and ramifications for each nation into play. However, historically, India has always played the part of stating that it needs to also cater to the Chinese threat and not just Pakistan. Yet, as we saw, Indian military was unprepared for the Chinese build up and so was its political machinery.

We have covered the Indo-China angle before and now let us focus on the possible direction that this new development can take and what does it entail for Pakistan.

View attachment 642291
Permanent troika – the most likely scenario

If we take the Chinese strategy into account it is reasonable to assume that the presence would be a permanent feature. Therefore, India would not just have to deal with Pakistan in Kashmir but also China and any further build up would escalate the situation further. The condition of the Indian economy with mega-corporations does not allow for a friendly environment where India can afford that. I would like to highlight that the same thing happened in the 2001-02 military escalation between India and Pakistan; India had to factor in the economic cost of such tensions as well whereas Pakistan was relatively free of that impact as many businesses started taking their money out from India.

Moreover, China has taken a note from India’s playbook and made this a bi-lateral issue shielding it from the international forum; something India has routinely done with Pakistan. For the purpose of this article, we’re going to sideline the political discussion of this and focus on the strategic implications. Therefore, if India invites international attention to this arena then its own ambition of being taken as a serious contender of power in the world gets challenged and it opens up the door for Pakistan to exploit the issue further.

Implications for Pakistan

It seems like China is there to stay; therefore, Pakistan can have some breathing space because our issue has not been purely military, in that arena Pakistan has always been able to challenge its larger neighbor successfully but economics. With the Chinese presence, Pakistan can focus on developing its economy in order to afford deterrence and develop a much needed large scale reforms without the looming threat of escalation with India over Kashmir and being solely responsible for catering to the region militarily.

A new player?

The South Asian region in which, we can count, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh directly with Afghanistan, Iran and China as closely associated with the geo strategic direction has always been dominated by Indian designs. However, this move makes it so that China would be willing to counter Indian influence in the region, we have already seen that with the Chinese presence in Sri Lanka and possible defense deals with Bangladesh. This move places a further seriousness to the situation as China seems to be willing to be directly involved in conflicts of interests now.

Implications for Pakistan

This places Pakistan at an interesting cross-road here whereby it can do one thing it has done quite successfully in the past: be a bridge. The Chinese-US relations came into place with Pakistan acting as the bridge; here too it can replay that role and get other nations in South Asia to the table to the new center of power and tilt the balance of power in the region. Such a move, if taken correctly, can aid Pakistan economically by better trade deals and strengthen the CPEC project as well.

The countermoves

Over on the Indian side, they seem to have two options; either they engage with China more assertively and that would be done by involving having a greater influence over Afghanistan to place pressure on Pakistan and indirectly China. The other route would be increase influence over Iran and do achieve the same; however, Iran has a much more complicated geostrategic presence and doing so would hamper its next option, which may be more feasible in containing China.

The other option, would be to entail and encourage the US presence in the region by allowing them bases in India to counter the Chinese presence. However, this move would have its own implications; first of all, the US designs may not align with Indian designs because the US interests also entail other nations in the region who would automatically go towards China in case the US appears to be strengthening India. Secondly, the US would not be too fond of India investing in Iran and disturbing the Middle East’s balance of power against its ally KSA which is the natural counter of Iran. Furthermore, such a move would see KSA move towards aiding Pakistan to counter Iran and most importantly, it would hurt India’s image projection of a rising power which projects independence in its foreign policy.

Therefore, I think the more prudent choice would be option one; India can try to pressure Pakistan and therefore China via Afghanistan.

Implications for Pakistan

In such a scenario, it would be wise for Pakistan to improve its relationship with Afghanistan to curb any possibility of such an action. Afghanistan, geographically, stands to benefit from the CPEC project as it is a land locked state and Pakistan directly stands in between it and India. For the foreseeable future, Afghanistan would not seriously consider a forward stance as it needs to focus its security apparatus inwards.

Pakistan’s focus on its own economy and a revised deal with Afghanistan for trade movements through its territory would be a better option. This can be effective in securing a more stable region and take off the pressure of two fronts from Pakistan.

Instability in Pakistan

The third option that India has is to aid the militancy in Pakistan to try to make it more unstable via the support for insurgency in its northern regions and south western regions. This would keep the economic development in the region being curtailed by expenditure for Pakistan to secure the internal situation. This is another possible countermove available for India and given that the current government is quite open with its belligerence towards Pakistan then it is also a possibility that must be taken seriously.

Implications for Pakistan

For Pakistan the paramilitary presence in these regions increased before the current stand off so at least the nation stands well prepared for any such moves. However, it can extend the operations against militancy. In the longer run, this would be a heavy cost for the entire region because history has shown that such forces are chaos towards everyone as they are not rational players. In such a scenario, Pakistan needs to develop the civilian counter to possible insurgency by a much needed reform of the police force and political reforms in the regions. Moreover, such a scenario also needs to be catered by good pressure on the international forum of such Indian designs because these threats are an international concern and can move towards changing the perspective of the international community towards India as a ‘soft-power’. Such a direction would also curtail further US based support to the Indian position.

Conclusion

In any given scenario, Pakistan needs to take this time and focus inwards to fix internal issues which have bled the nation dry. A much needed economic reform and reorientation of the nation’s civil bureaucratic system much more seriously.

View presented here are of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the PDF management

Agreed that pakistan has many things in its favour if it so chooses to exploit the current situation to its advantage. The main obstacle I see is the economy, if India decides to drag pakistan into a war situation, and it will be India that will impose war on pakistan not the other way round, then does pakistan have enough dollars to purchase oil which is the life blood of the army.

We also must bear in mind internal issues like insurgency in balochistan and ptm movement not to mention the USA and NATO forces sittings in neighbouring Afghanistan.
 
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Great article.

For now india has only one option which is to target Pakistan and it will. Should Pakistan pre-empt indian designs?

Pakistan hasnt even issued a statement condemning indian territorial ambitions.
 
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https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/what-does-it-take-to-win-in-asymmetrical-modern-warfare.670933/
This one?

Or maybe this?
https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/analysis-on-the-impact-of-china-india-debacle.670404
Brother, you wrote another article a few days back about this being a new reality or something, I can't find it. Please can you give me the link.

Thank you, brother, I think we don't want to give them an excuse, perhaps?
Great article.

For now india has only one option which is to target Pakistan and it will. Should Pakistan pre-empt indian designs?

Pakistan hasnt even issued a statement condemning indian territorial ambitions.
 
.
View attachment 642290
The new nexus: Indo-China conflict in Kashmir and implications for Pakistan


As the conflict between the two giants of Asia culminates the center of that shifts closely to Pakistan and its interest in securing Kashmir and there is something that needs to be said about that dynamic here: despite much of the academic treatment, there is one point that needs to be stated here; India has far greater military presence in Kashmir than Pakistan even if we take other factors such as the ratio of area controlled, key positions to be held and ramifications for each nation into play. However, historically, India has always played the part of stating that it needs to also cater to the Chinese threat and not just Pakistan. Yet, as we saw, Indian military was unprepared for the Chinese build up and so was its political machinery.

We have covered the Indo-China angle before and now let us focus on the possible direction that this new development can take and what does it entail for Pakistan.

View attachment 642291
Permanent troika – the most likely scenario

If we take the Chinese strategy into account it is reasonable to assume that the presence would be a permanent feature. Therefore, India would not just have to deal with Pakistan in Kashmir but also China and any further build up would escalate the situation further. The condition of the Indian economy with mega-corporations does not allow for a friendly environment where India can afford that. I would like to highlight that the same thing happened in the 2001-02 military escalation between India and Pakistan; India had to factor in the economic cost of such tensions as well whereas Pakistan was relatively free of that impact as many businesses started taking their money out from India.

Moreover, China has taken a note from India’s playbook and made this a bi-lateral issue shielding it from the international forum; something India has routinely done with Pakistan. For the purpose of this article, we’re going to sideline the political discussion of this and focus on the strategic implications. Therefore, if India invites international attention to this arena then its own ambition of being taken as a serious contender of power in the world gets challenged and it opens up the door for Pakistan to exploit the issue further.

Implications for Pakistan

It seems like China is there to stay; therefore, Pakistan can have some breathing space because our issue has not been purely military, in that arena Pakistan has always been able to challenge its larger neighbor successfully but economics. With the Chinese presence, Pakistan can focus on developing its economy in order to afford deterrence and develop a much needed large scale reforms without the looming threat of escalation with India over Kashmir and being solely responsible for catering to the region militarily.

A new player?

The South Asian region in which, we can count, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh directly with Afghanistan, Iran and China as closely associated with the geo strategic direction has always been dominated by Indian designs. However, this move makes it so that China would be willing to counter Indian influence in the region, we have already seen that with the Chinese presence in Sri Lanka and possible defense deals with Bangladesh. This move places a further seriousness to the situation as China seems to be willing to be directly involved in conflicts of interests now.

Implications for Pakistan

This places Pakistan at an interesting cross-road here whereby it can do one thing it has done quite successfully in the past: be a bridge. The Chinese-US relations came into place with Pakistan acting as the bridge; here too it can replay that role and get other nations in South Asia to the table to the new center of power and tilt the balance of power in the region. Such a move, if taken correctly, can aid Pakistan economically by better trade deals and strengthen the CPEC project as well.

The countermoves

Over on the Indian side, they seem to have two options; either they engage with China more assertively and that would be done by involving having a greater influence over Afghanistan to place pressure on Pakistan and indirectly China. The other route would be increase influence over Iran and do achieve the same; however, Iran has a much more complicated geostrategic presence and doing so would hamper its next option, which may be more feasible in containing China.

The other option, would be to entail and encourage the US presence in the region by allowing them bases in India to counter the Chinese presence. However, this move would have its own implications; first of all, the US designs may not align with Indian designs because the US interests also entail other nations in the region who would automatically go towards China in case the US appears to be strengthening India. Secondly, the US would not be too fond of India investing in Iran and disturbing the Middle East’s balance of power against its ally KSA which is the natural counter of Iran. Furthermore, such a move would see KSA move towards aiding Pakistan to counter Iran and most importantly, it would hurt India’s image projection of a rising power which projects independence in its foreign policy.

Therefore, I think the more prudent choice would be option one; India can try to pressure Pakistan and therefore China via Afghanistan.

Implications for Pakistan

In such a scenario, it would be wise for Pakistan to improve its relationship with Afghanistan to curb any possibility of such an action. Afghanistan, geographically, stands to benefit from the CPEC project as it is a land locked state and Pakistan directly stands in between it and India. For the foreseeable future, Afghanistan would not seriously consider a forward stance as it needs to focus its security apparatus inwards.

Pakistan’s focus on its own economy and a revised deal with Afghanistan for trade movements through its territory would be a better option. This can be effective in securing a more stable region and take off the pressure of two fronts from Pakistan.

Instability in Pakistan

The third option that India has is to aid the militancy in Pakistan to try to make it more unstable via the support for insurgency in its northern regions and south western regions. This would keep the economic development in the region being curtailed by expenditure for Pakistan to secure the internal situation. This is another possible countermove available for India and given that the current government is quite open with its belligerence towards Pakistan then it is also a possibility that must be taken seriously.

Implications for Pakistan

For Pakistan the paramilitary presence in these regions increased before the current stand off so at least the nation stands well prepared for any such moves. However, it can extend the operations against militancy. In the longer run, this would be a heavy cost for the entire region because history has shown that such forces are chaos towards everyone as they are not rational players. In such a scenario, Pakistan needs to develop the civilian counter to possible insurgency by a much needed reform of the police force and political reforms in the regions. Moreover, such a scenario also needs to be catered by good pressure on the international forum of such Indian designs because these threats are an international concern and can move towards changing the perspective of the international community towards India as a ‘soft-power’. Such a direction would also curtail further US based support to the Indian position.

Conclusion

In any given scenario, Pakistan needs to take this time and focus inwards to fix internal issues which have bled the nation dry. A much needed economic reform and reorientation of the nation’s civil bureaucratic system much more seriously.

View presented here are of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the PDF management

Nice article but the counter moves that u think india have, are already exhausted. They have tried their best in Afghanistan and are failing. They also tried well to destabilize Pakistan but we dealt with that too. They can only now try to fund and support movements like PTM and baloch groups but these have no solid prospect. India is slowly being out maneuvered by Pakistan with chinese help. With CPEC materializing and expanding, india is trying its best to keep influence/alliance with central asian states and Iran.
Your conclusion about need to fix internal issues is spot on.
 
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