Ominous future for Pakistan

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Kamal Siddiqi
The Boston Globe

Ominous future for Pakistan


By Kamal Siddiqi
November 29, 2007

IT MAY SEEM that by imposing emergency in Pakistan, President General Pervez Musharraf has been able to stop the country from spiraling into a state of anarchy and religious violence. Musharraf calls it a bitter pill that he was forced to swallow and said he did it in the interest of the country. Nothing could be further from the truth. Political events in Pakistan are moving fast, but one can only wonder whether they are going in the right direction.
more stories like this

Pakistan's National Assembly has been dissolved and a caretaker administration has been put into place. The general elections in January will choose a new prime minister and parliament, which will run under President Musharraf for the next five years. Musharraf resigned as army chief this week and will be sworn in for a second term as president, but this time as a civilian.

This comes after the hand-picked Supreme Court predictably validated his candidacy and endorsed his election as president for the next five years. Musharraf now hands over reigns of the army to a full-time military commander, General Kayani. The question for Kayani, who has also served under Benazir Bhutto, is whether to move the army away from the political arena, or keep on being a major stakeholder in national affairs.

Musharraf has been able to put into place a series of steps that will ensure "full democracy" in Pakistan, something that he has been promising for the past seven years. There is, however, a good chance that the plan will get derailed.

As a caretaker government takes charge to oversee elections, the Pakistan military is engaged in a military offensive in the Swat valley, where Islamic militants have taken control of large parts and declared their own government. Analysts believe that the challenge will not be wresting Swat from the hands of the militants but coping with the fallout of this action. Military officials said that over 600 military personnel have died since the operation in the Lal Masjid earlier this year. Most have been killed in suicide attacks, which are seen as revenge killings for the military's storming of a mosque in the center of Islamabad.

The rise in the number and intensity of terror attacks has been a source of worry not only for the government but also for Pakistanis. Many are wary of taking part in an election process that is under threat of sabotage from right-wing militants. There have been threats that the militants will bomb the ballot box.

In October, several hundred died in a bomb attack at a rally for Bhutto. Bhutto claimed the attack was the work of intelligence agencies within the government. She did not blame militants. This adds another twist to the deteriorating security situation in the country.

Another challenge for Musharraf comes from within. There are elements in his government, and some say within his military, that want to see him go. Many quarters opposed the political understanding that Musharraf was reaching with Bhutto as part of an effort to widen his base of political support. But the problems with the judiciary and the imposition of the emergency has put that understanding in cold storage. However, the opposition from within about how Musharraf is dealing with the political crisis in the country and also the manner in which the armed forces are waging the war on terror seems to be growing as well.

Finally there is a rise in public sentiment against the Musharraf government over the imposition of emergency and the manner in which the government has cracked down against lawyers, politicians, and members of civil society. Political parties are gradually gathering strength to protest against the military government. If this happens, the Musharraf government may become shaky. Historically, military governments in Pakistan have been unable to fight massive public opposition for long.

Therefore, until elections are held in January, there are many in Pakistan who are seeing developments on a day-to-day basis. Before speculating on who will win the elections, the discussion in the country is whether they will be held at all and how the government will manage the situation until then.

Kamal Siddiqi is editor of reporting at The News in Karachi.
http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/a2007/11/29/ominous_future_for_pakistan/

It appears to be a summation of the situation in Pakistan currently.

One wonders how much is fiction and how much is facts.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

CITIZEN MUSHARRAF

WILL PAKISTAN UNITE VS. TERROR?

<B>Musharraf: His resignation as army chief allows Pakistan to move ahead, if rivals cooperate.</B>

Musharraf: His resignation as army chief allows Pakistan to move ahead, if rivals cooperate.


By AMIR TAHERI November 29, 2007 -- BETTER late than never: Pa kistan's President Pervez Musharraf yesterday officially shed his military uniform and will act as a civilian head of state. He had promised to make the move as far back as 2004; his failure to do so had been a key theme in his critics' campaign against his rule.

Some critics have even pretended that Musharraf's uniform was the central question of Pakistani politics. But the problem isn't Musharraf's uniform. His switch to civilian clothes will simply transform another uniform-wearer, new chief Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, into a "strongman."

The reasons for the army's special place in Pakistani politics aren't hard to fathom. It is the only national institution that cuts across ethnic and regional barriers and offers Pakistanis from all sorts of backgrounds a place on the social ladder.

The traditional political parties are ultimately regional in their basic constituencies; the army appeals to all the four provinces that make up the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Moreover, the army (while taking pride in its role as the "Defender of the Faith") nurtures a basically secular-nationalist ideology - based on a vision of Pakistan as a distinct nation, rather than a mere chunk of the greater Muslim community (ummah).

Despite the undoubted attachment of most of its people to some form of electoral politics, Pakistan remains a nation built around an army. Paradoxically, even the citizens who most talk of democracy often look to the army as potential savior - a kind of deus ex machina that, at crucial moments, can intervene to bring the nation out of an impasse. In just over half a century as a state, Pakistan has experienced four military coups - each initially welcomed by a majority of the people.

By shedding his uniform, Musharraf has thrown the ball back to the political leaders - especially two former prime ministers, Benazir Bhutto, leader of the Pakistan People's Party, and Muslim League leader Mian Nawaz Sharif.

For the last three weeks, both have been threatening a boycott of the general elections scheduled for January. My guess is that each will take part. Both spent the last eight years (in exile) campaigning against Musharraf's decision to bar them from national politics for a decade. Now that they no longer face such a ban, they'd be foolish, if not politically suicidal, to shun the polls.

Both parties have managed to retain parts of their respective constituencies, especially in Sind and Punjab. But eight years is a long time in politics, and there's every possibility that Pakistan may have moved beyond both former premiers. To seek high office, Bhutto and Sharif must acquire a new legitimacy - which can only come through elections.

Bhutto and Sharif also owe it to their own people to sheath the sword of boycott. To move Pakistan beyond the current dangerous phase, January's elections must be held with the widest participation and under the least controversial conditions possible. Now that all political parties and leaders are allowed to contest them, it would be foolish to turn the vote into an occasion for settling past scores.

For his part, Musharraf should release the last few remaining political prisoners taken at the start of the state of emergency and lift the ban on the one or two private news outlets still blacked out.

Pakistan today faces perhaps the strongest existential threat it has experienced since its inception in 1947. The terrorists operating in Swat (in the North-West Frontier province) can't seize power in Islamabad. But they can exhaust the army in a seemingly endless war, thus encouraging the revival of other divisive forces, especially in the vast desert of Baluchistan province.

A weakened army also would be unable to provide a minimum of law and order in the major cities - notably Karachi, where "sleeper" terrorist cells have mushroomed for years.

usharraf's key word is "security," while Bhutto and Sharif prefer "freedom." But the two concepts are interdependent. There can be no freedom without security. The failure of Pakistan's leaders to understand that banal truism has been at the root of the nation's checkered experience over the last half-century.

Nawaz Sharif is right in saying that not everyone designated as terrorist by the global media should be regarded as such. But Sharif shouldn't offer a fig leaf to radical elements whose cynical appeal to religious sentiments draws the ignorant into the antechambers of terror.

For her part, Bhutto must remember that those who tried to kill her in Karachi a few weeks ago are the same people who have tried to assassinate Musharraf four times.

Whether they like it or not, Musharraf, Sharif and Bhutto are today in the same boat, facing the same storms.

Pakistan's forthcoming election has suddenly assumed a geostrategic importance beyond that country's actual importance. The prospect of a nuclear-armed state collapsing into chaos is one that few would contemplate with relish.

This election could, and should, produce a new national coalition that enjoys popular legitimacy and a clear mandate to pursue the war against terrorists to ultimate victory. What Pakistan needs is a united front against terror and a new government that can offer an alternative to both military rule and Taliban-style theocracy.

Pakistan needs a future-oriented election campaign, one capable of offering the people hope based on reality. Musharraf, Bhutto and Sharif form an informal triumvirate that can and must play a crucial role. This may be their last chance to make an historic contribution to their nation's future.

If they fail, they will all go down together. None can succeed by destroying the others - while holding clean, credible elections could strengthen all three in their respective positions.

The outside world should also offer a helping hand. The (British) Commonwealth, having had fun with gesture politics by suspending Pakistan's membership, should offer help in monitoring the elections, along with the European Union, the United States and possibly even the United Nations.

The message of Pakistan's leaders should be unity in diversity, unity against terror and diversity in competing visions for the nation's future.

In January, one of the biggest battles in the War on Terror will be fought in Pakistan. The whole world will be watching.
CITIZEN MUSHARRAF

More on the issue.

 

[sparten]

On the uniform issue, well I was present at his retirement ceremony, and the guy was in tears. Must have been hell, retiring.

 

[BATMAN]

Pakistan is in a situation of War because of its geography.
Who is behind the fresh attacks is under investigation.
Previous investigations indicate that India has been involved.
If India continue to wish the destruction of its neighbors than of course its not our own choice.

 

[ejaz007]

First of all I would like to correct the author of the report about dissolving the assembly. Assembly was not dissolved it served its legal tenure of five years for which it was elected.
Secondly the security situation in Pakistan is not entirely the work of taliban or extremists. For instance in Swat and Tribal Areas the involvement of India is widely believed. It is also believed that Indian consulate in Kandahar, Afghanistan is involved. Then the role of CIA in Balochistan has also been discovered in reactivation of so called Balochistan Liberation Army. In early 1970’s another organization namely Balochistan Army was funded and supported by CIA. After the operation of 1975 the leaders of the organization escaped and it was disbanded. It is assumed that CIA has again funded and helped reactivate the organization. The reason is to stop or delay development of Gwadar and provision of possible backdoor to Chinese for access to warm waters.
However latest developments indicate that security situations shall come to normal quite soon. Security forces operation in Swat is in full force and a lot of militants have been arrested or killed and remaining escaped. As for BLA their leader has been killed in an air strike courtesy of US forces in Afghanistan who mistakenly bombed him thinking he was taliban. The ones who created him also killed him.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

Pakistan is in a situation of War because of its geography.
Who is behind the fresh attacks is under investigation.
Previous investigations indicate that India has been involved.
If India continue to wish the destruction of its neighbors than of course its not our own choice.

India centric fixation blinds you from observing the situation.

There are more powerful interests at work and it is to their advantage that the blame game devolves elsewhere while they chip away diligently!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

First of all I would like to correct the author of the report about dissolving the assembly. Assembly was not dissolved it served its legal tenure of five years for which it was elected.
Secondly the security situation in Pakistan is not entirely the work of taliban or extremists. For instance in Swat and Tribal Areas the involvement of India is widely believed. It is also believed that Indian consulate in Kandahar, Afghanistan is involved. Then the role of CIA in Balochistan has also been discovered in reactivation of so called Balochistan Liberation Army. In early 1970’s another organization namely Balochistan Army was funded and supported by CIA. After the operation of 1975 the leaders of the organization escaped and it was disbanded. It is assumed that CIA has again funded and helped reactivate the organization. The reason is to stop or delay development of Gwadar and provision of possible backdoor to Chinese for access to warm waters.
However latest developments indicate that security situations shall come to normal quite soon. Security forces operation in Swat is in full force and a lot of militants have been arrested or killed and remaining escaped. As for BLA their leader has been killed in an air strike courtesy of US forces in Afghanistan who mistakenly bombed him thinking he was taliban. The ones who created him also killed him.

The destabilizing elements being supported in Baluchistan also serve an important role in carrying out terrorism in Iran - something the Iranians have complained quite vehemently about to Pakistan.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

The destabilizing elements being supported in Baluchistan also serve an important role in carrying out terrorism in Iran - something the Iranians have complained quite vehemently about to Pakistan.

The destabilising in Balochistan and its effects in Iran maybe suiting the geostrategic requirements of those who benefit from it in more than one way.

 

[Awesome]

India centric fixation blinds you from observing the situation.

There are more powerful interests at work and it is to their advantage that the blame game devolves elsewhere while they chip away diligently!

I sort of agree. India is just the front man in all of this. I mean if some agency comes and tells India what if I told you how to wreck Pakistan, India would take it. Indian consulates are being used and have American protection for them. Indians might be doing it, but the plan is American.

 

[fatman17]

well the situation is pakistan is certainly not normal but i believe the recent actions will lead towards a more stable situation after the jan-08 elections. lets summarise:

1. musharraf retires from army/hands over command to kiyani - everyone from washington to london to delhi is happy about this.
2. emergency will be lifted on dec 16th - everyone from washington to london to delhi is happy about this. not right away but by dec 16th.
3. musharraf is a civilian president - everyone from washington to london to delhi is happy about this. even BB and NS are happy about this even if they dont show it publically,
4. elections will be free and fair because the US/EU/UN is sending observers - everyone from washington to london to delhi is happy about this.
5. swat operation is going well - regular PA elements are taking charge/the locals are supporting them/mullah fazlullah will be hunted dowm. the rot is stemmed -everyone from washington to london to delhi is happy about this.
6. WoT - there is no other option for the west to fight the WoT than musharraf - so guess what? - everyone from washington to london to delhi is happy about this.
7. the opposition is not united-APDM has been split/who cares about IK and JI boycotting/NS is boycotting bcuz his nomination papers were going to be rejected (convict remember) anyway, so he is saving face/ JUI-F/ANP/MQM/PPP/PPPP/all Baluch sardars are participating - everyone from washington to london to delhi is happy about this.
all this is going to happen - God Willing!

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

I sort of agree. India is just the front man in all of this. I mean if some agency comes and tells India what if I told you how to wreck Pakistan, India would take it. Indian consulates are being used and have American protection for them. Indians might be doing it, but the plan is American.

I would not be too sure about India being a front.

If indeed it is a front for the US, it is for ensuring things are A OK to the extent possible in Afghanistan itself, since India had a very close interactivity with Afghans before the Mujh period. In fact, there was a large Indian expatriate population in Afghanistan, especially of Sikhs and still is.

I am aware that many in Pakistan feel that the consulates are being used against the interest of Pakistan. I feel that it is not in the interest of India to destabilise or destroy Pakistan. It will create a huge instability in the sub continent and given the large Moslem population in India, it may cause serious instability in India itself! If you are aware, the Taslima Nasrin case itself, who has a fatwa on her head in Bangladesh, and for whom there was rioting by the Moslems in Kolkata, has caused national security problem. Therefore, if anything untoward and catastrophic happens to Pakistan, it will explode in India! Thus, it is in the interest of India that Pakistan remains stable.

You would have also noticed that India has not given any cognitive comment on the situation in Pakistan, even though it has alarmed the rest of the world.

Hence, it is only, to my mind, the historical paranoia, that prompts the feeling that India wants to destabilise Pakistan.

Sooner India and Pakistan shed its historical paranoia, it will be better for the progress of both nations.

As for the US, it has a gigantic task on her hands to maintain its position as the only superpower in the world, given the meteoric rise of China and the resurrection of Russia.

 

[Black Stone]

As for the US, it has a gigantic task on her hands to maintain its position as the only superpower in the world, given the meteoric rise of China and the resurrection of Russia.

Russia is considered a minor concern, we all know Russia today would not achieve the status of the former Soviet Union.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

I would not be too sure.

Russia is on the rise with its oil and gas resources.

In Yeltsin time, it had gone under.

With the Rose and Orange revolutions, when it was still finding its feet, the US had the initiative.

But now that Putin has found his courage with the rising economy because of oil and gas, he has stemmed the rot (from the Russian point of view) and with the Russian proteges has ensured an ongoing see saw in both the countries and has checkmated Kosovo's independence by ensuring that should it occur, then the rebel states in Georgia would also have reasons for their independence.

The US ABM in Europe scheme , Russia has successfully so far contested and stalled.

It has started its long range aerial surveillance. It is refurbishing its armed forces.

In CAR, which was slowly being wooed into the US sphere of influence has been reverted into the Russian sphere.

While I would appreciate a US supremacy, but then I look at issue pragmatically and without any partisan baggage!

 

[Black Stone]

I would not be too sure.

Russia is on the rise with its oil and gas resources.

In Yeltsin time, it had gone under.

With the Rose and Orange revolutions, when it was still finding its feet, the US had the initiative.

But now that Putin has found his courage with the rising economy because of oil and gas, he has stemmed the rot (from the Russian point of view) and with the Russian proteges has ensured an ongoing see saw in both the countries and has checkmated Kosovo's independence by ensuring that should it occur, then the rebel states in Georgia would also have reasons for their independence.

The US ABM in Europe scheme , Russia has successfully so far contested and stalled.

It has started its long range aerial surveillance. It is refurbishing its armed forces.

In CAR, which was slowly being wooed into the US sphere of influence has been reverted into the Russian sphere.

While I would appreciate a US supremacy, but then I look at issue pragmatically and without any partisan baggage!

The Russians have been recovering, that is a fact. But I don't see them reaching the status and influence of the former Soviet Union.

Russia today has many problems which limits their power. As you have put it, Russia's main recovery is in the form of energy sales. Mostly generated by the ever hungry China and India.

Once the demands slows and drops their influence would further diminish. This is supported by the discovery of a mass oil site in China aswell as China's other energy diversifications in Middle East and Africa.

As for India, They are negotiating in the IPI pipeline, I think there is still concerns on the pricing but I think it's all about time. India would need all the energy supplies it can get around the world and self discovered energy sites within India.

One thing is clear, no one, especially China and India would want to pay ever high energy prices. There will be a time where China and India would depend less and minimise energy costs.

With the two main hungry nations China and India out of the equation, Russia's only route left is Europe.

Russia has a bitter reputation that it uses Energy as a political weapon. This further irritates EU countries, pushing them into the bandwagon of NATO.

With the problems such as Chechnya and Ukraine, Russian influence is further curbed.

The US with NATO is encroaching into Eastern Europe and deploying the missile shield and Russia currently can't do much but condemn and protest.

To fully have influence in the world is not just reliance on sales. On the political front is also important.

At the moment, the world, especially the EU is behind the US.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

The Russians have been recovering, that is a fact. But I don't see them reaching the status and influence of the former Soviet Union.

Russia today has many problems which limits their power. As you have put it, Russia's main recovery is in the form of energy sales. Mostly generated by the ever hungry China and India.

I am not sure sure that India gets Russian oil!

Once the demands slows and drops their influence would further diminish. This is supported by the discovery of a mass oil site in China aswell as China's other energy diversifications in Middle East and Africa.

Demaind shall never drop. USA believes in SUVs.

As for India, They are negotiating in the IPI pipeline, I think there is still concerns on the pricing but I think it's all about time. India would need all the energy supplies it can get around the world and self discovered energy sites within India.

US is sabotaging the IPI!

One thing is clear, no one, especially China and India would want to pay ever high energy prices. There will be a time where China and India would depend less and minimise energy costs.

Hopefully!

With the two main hungry nations China and India out of the equation, Russia's only route left is Europe.

Russia has a bitter reputation that it uses Energy as a political weapon. This further irritates EU countries, pushing them into the bandwagon of NATO.

Too bad for Europe. They still beg for Russian oil and gas!

With the problems such as Chechnya and Ukraine, Russian influence is further curbed.

Chechnya is hardly in the news these days!

The US with NATO is encroaching into Eastern Europe and deploying the missile shield and Russia currently can't do much but condemn and protest.

Georgia and Ukraine are 50 -50.

To fully have influence in the world is not just reliance on sales. On the political front is also important.

At the moment, the world, especially the EU is behind the US.

Debatable!