Nawaz or Shahbaz?

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Nawaz or Shahbaz?

The campaign to have Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif as PML-N leader has picked up.

On Thursday, Riaz Hussain Pirzada, a federal minister known for his occasional outbursts of unfiltered ‘truth’, declared how absolutely necessary it was for the younger Sharif to replace former prime minister Nawaz Sharif at the top of the PML-N hierarchy.

Soon, in reaction to Mr Pirzada’s presser, a Punjab government spokesman commented on how pragmatism was the order of the day for the party. In other words, this was an endorsement of an idea by someone who is apparently close to the chief minister.

Not only that, there was another report on a meeting of 40 PML-N MPAs from various parts of the province in Lahore. The message emanating from the meeting was the same as had been earlier conveyed with varying degrees of forthrightness: replace Nawaz Sharif with his younger brother as the party head.

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This development is not out of the blue. It is consistent with some statements that have come from what is increasingly being referred to as ‘the Shahbaz camp’ within the PML-N. These statements include those made by Hamza Shahbaz, elder son of Shahbaz Sharif and an influential MNA in his own right. The Sharif scion has been advocating a moderate approach after silently watching Maryam Nawaz doing aggressive politics along with her father.

It is generally believed that a more measured, less acrimonious thrust on the part of the PML-N would entail the passing of the leadership mantle to Shahbaz Sharif. Indeed, it is thought that there is increasing demand within the PML-N for such a change and that the party risks losing members to opposing forces if it delays such a transition.

This theory envisages the former prime minister and his daughter retaining a parallel role in the background in case the aggressive drive needs to be rekindled at some stage.

Mr Pirzada has also criticised the change in the law that allowed Nawaz Sharif to be elected as PML-N chief following his disqualification as prime minister; he appeared to suggest that no intra-party debate had taken place before the much-criticised person-specific amendment was rushed through parliament.

Consultation is unlikely even now since it could bring conflicts within the PML-N into public view. Ultimately, in true Pakistani tradition, it is for the family to decide which brother they deem fit to act as head of the PML-N and at what point in time.

But one thing is clear: Shahbaz Sharif being in charge would mean a mellowing of the party position. A shift from the former prime minister, who is understandably very bitter at his removal, to Shahbaz Sharif would signify a fundamental departure.

Though such a transition would not be easy to accomplish, it would perhaps mark the building of a new party altogether.

Published in Dawn, October 21st, 2017

 

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PML-N in a bind over ex-PM’s fate
Aamir Yasin | Zulqernain TahirUpdated October 21, 2017
10

• Punjab minister Sarwar concedes most party members are ‘confused’
  
• Lalika says MPAs never demanded or discussed Nawaz’s replacement with Shahbaz
  
• Sheikh Rashid predicts over 70 PML-N lawmakers will cut and run

LAHORE/RAWALPINDI: A day after a senior PML-N legislator criticised the election of a disqualified Nawaz Sharifas the party head and suggested Shahbaz Sharif lead the ruling Muslim League instead, more people on Friday appeared to be willing to embrace the idea.

Federal Minister for Inter-Provincial Coordination Mian Riaz Hussain Pirzada told reporters at the National Press Club in Islamabad on Thursday that Shahbaz Sharif should lead the party — apparently since Nawaz Sharif was facing trial in corruption cases.

Editorial: Nawaz or Shahbaz?

Differences between the two brothers and their heirs apparent — Maryam Nawaz and Hamza Shahbaz — became public knowledge when Hamza chose to air his concerns before media after he and his father failed to dissuade the elder Sharif and his daughter from adopting a policy of confrontation with institutions, particularly after the Supreme Court announced its verdict in the Panama Papers case ousting Nawaz Sharif from office.

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Now it appears that Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif has been cementing his position for an impending behind-the-scenes battle aimed at taking up the reins of the party, as he met long-time friend former interior minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan on Friday to discuss party affairs with him.

And one of the Punjab cabinet members, Raja Ashfaq Sarwar, conceded that the party lacked a clear direction and most of its members “are confused”.

The meeting between Chaudhry Nisar and Shahbaz Sharif was being seen as of great importance since both have been on the same page since the Panama Papers controversy emerged.

“Both want Nawaz Sharif and Maryam Nawaz to avoid a clash with the army and the judiciary and face accountability without much complaint,” a PML-N leader said.

A close aide to Nawaz Sharif said that even if the court had restrained the former premier from holding the office of the party president the post might not have been given to Shahbaz Sharif on a platter.

“Do not rule out Maryam Nawaz’s chances to don the cap of the party president in such a scenario,” he said, adding that Shahbaz Sharif’s role would remain confined to Punjab even after the next general elections.

In a related development on Friday, Railways Minister Saad Rafique telephoned Mr Pirzada and asked him about his proposal to replace Nawaz Sharif with his brother.

“I told him [Saad Rafique] that what I had said is in the best interest of the party,” Mr Pirzada said.

There were, however, some PML-N politicians who remained unconvinced.

Minister of State for Interior Affairs Talal Chaudhry said there could be a difference of opinion in the party but “there is one leader in the PML-N and he is Nawaz Sharif”.

Had anyone asked Shahbaz Sharif if he was interested in becoming the president of the party, he raised the question.

“Similar ideas were floated during the Musharraf regime,” Mr Chaudhry said, adding that after Nawaz Sharif, his brother was the most senior leader in the party and he was always there to rescue the party when such a time came.

‘Lost’ lawmakers meet
The situation has left the party’s parliamentarians worried. They want Nawaz Sharif to give them a ‘clear road map’ going into 2018 elections and tell them who will lead them in the election campaign.

They are having meetings in groups to share their growing concern about the future of the party and its direction.

In background interviews, some PML-N legislators said it was the time both brothers (Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif) sat with the party men and told them how they would go into 2018 — with confrontation mode with the judiciary and the army or the party’s development agenda. Besides, who will lead the party in the election campaign when Nawaz Sharif and his children are facing the graft cases.

A few of the PML-N lawmakers endorsed Riaz Pirzada’s criticism of the election of the party head and termed his proposal to replace Nawaz Sharif with his brother a ‘workable solution’.

“At the moment most of us (parliamentarians) are confused and want Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif to have a sitting with us to give us a clear direction leading to next year’s election,” Punjab Minister for Labour and Human Resource Raja Ashfaq Sarwar told Dawn.

Mr Sarwar has recently attended a meeting of a group of over two-dozen MPAs, mostly from south Punjab, in Lahore in which the proposal of either forming a forward bloc to negotiate better terms with the Sharifs ahead of election or backing Shahbaz Sharif as party president was reportedly discussed.

Answering a question, Mr Sarwar laughed off at the idea of forward bloc in the PML-N, particularly in Punjab, and clarified that he and some 20 MPAs were invited by MPA Shaukat Lalika at his residence, where they discussed growing unrest in the party because of having no ‘future’ direction.

“Similarly whenever the party legislators meet these days they discuss the same things,” Mr Sarwar said and added that Nawaz Sharif on his return next week would be requested to give them time and decide the future action plan.

“So far the idea of replacing Mian sahib with Shahbaz Sharif is a non-issue in the party. Nawaz Sharif is important for us and he has vote bank. But the party men want to know how to move forward,” he said.

Mr Lalika told Dawn that he had hosted dinner for his uncle, Ashfaq Sarwar, who recently performed Haj. “I also invited about three dozen other party MPAs to the feast. We discussed the party matters and the coming election.”

He said the party was united under the Sharif brothers. “We never demanded or discussed replacement of Mian sahib with Shahbaz Sharif,” he said.

Punjab government spokesman Malik Ahmad Khan said: “There has been consensus in the PML-N that Mian sahib should remain the party president as it is united under his leadership. The whole politics of the party revolves around him. However, it is the advice of the pragmatists to the party president to restrain the hawks to neutralise the “PML-N G.T. Road political discourse and NA-120 by-poll campaign’s strategy of confrontation. There should be no confrontation with institutions”.

About the concerns of the party legislators, Mr Ahmad said: “Our party men want elections. Confrontational path may delay elections, they fear. And at the same time if they are not told about who will be candidate for the office of prime minister after the 2018 election, at least they should be told who will lead the election campaign,” he said.

Sheikh Rasheed foresees end of ‘Sharif politics’
Meanwhile, Awami Muslim League (AML) president Sheikh Rashid Ahmed has predicted that the PML-N is a divided house and its parliamentarians will leave the “Pakistan Muslim League led by Nawaz Sharif” in the coming days.

“Earlier, I said 40 parliamentarians are ready to leave the party but now I am sure that more than 70 will do so, including Prime Minister [Shahid Khaqan] Abbasi, Chaudhry Nisar and Saad Rafique,” the AML chief claimed at a public meeting outside his residence Lal Haveli in Rawalpindi.

The gathering was held to protest against the government for “trying to bring changes in Khatm-i-Nabuwwat laws”.

Sheikh Rasheed said, “Next three months are very crucial for Pakistani politics and before March all the corrupt and the ruling elite of PML-N will be kicked out.”

He said the politics of the Sharif family would come to an end the day when the Hudaibya Paper Mills case, which pertains to the “mother of all crime”, would open.

Published in Dawn, October 21st, 2017

 

[I M Sikander]

Both are shareefs.
NS is the face of PMLN and SS is the performance face of PLMN.

Real power and strength lies with NS. Without NS , SS cant even win his own seat, and he knows that.

 

[Imad.Khan]

Well atleast Shahbaz has improved Lahore abit. Nawaz has done jack shit except build wealth for himself and his kids.

 

[!eon]

Invite all politicians for APC in a decorated C-130, then detonate it in mid air
or force them to live in slums in outskirts of any Pakistani city. They would die in few days.

Well atleast Shahbaz has improved Lahore abit. Nawaz has done jack shit except build wealth for himself and his kids.

Putting every penny of Punjab in Lahore.

 

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Turf war
Cyril AlmeidaUpdated October 22, 2017
97
16

The writer is a member of staff.


ANOTHER week, another attempted nudge out the door. Either they won’t learn or he won’t listen. But on it keeps grinding.

Let’s talk about Nawaz.

You can see what the Shahbaz camp is up to. Shahbaz wants Islamabad and Hamza has done the hard work of preparing for party inheritance.

Father has spent a decade running around Punjab delivering the kind of development that wins votes; son has patiently learned the art of party management and constituency politics.

The miserable and shambolic legal defence at this stage can surely only lead to one outcome.

Fun as that may be, it’s not Islamabad and not No 1.

So, try they had to. In any case, political regicide and fratricide are embedded in the politics of Punjab. If it was always a question of when, more interesting is the question of why now.

The reasons, big and small, are not very difficult to assemble.

Nawaz was out of the country and distracted. If you’re going to poke a lion, do it while he’s far away and unable to respond immediately. Imagine Nawaz had been in Lahore.

Elder brother could have just called over younger brother and let the TV cameras show up too. Shahbaz has an unfortunate way of, at least on camera, cowering in his brother’s presence.

Hardly the kind of thing that inspires party insurgents.

The window of opportunity was small. Nawaz is coming back and may escalate his war with what they’re euphemistically calling institutions — the weaker one is just a front for the eternal one, in Nawaz’s mind.

Nawaz and Maryam were indicted — the big one. Indictment was an inevitability — you don’t need to know anything about anything to know they were at least going to be put on trial — but it is still a jolt.

We’re into slightly different terrain now.

Nawaz has learned nothing, at least not when it comes to legal strategy. Through all the Supreme Court hearings, there was an obvious question: what the hell are they doing?

Even as Nawaz was slow-walked to ouster, it wasn’t obvious why the Sharifs’ legal strategy was so miserable and shambolic.

A best guess is a combination of arrogance and a conviction that extra-judicial forces would salvage a favourable outcome. Nawaz should have learned by now.

Except he doesn’t seem to have.

The accountability court is shaping up as a virtual replay of earlier proceedings. The miserable and shambolic legal defence at this stage can surely only lead to one outcome.

Historians will be able to figure out why Nawaz and Maryam are being so careless; for Shahbaz, Hamza and co, it’s enough that the other side is being reckless.

Elections are closer. In 2008, Shahbaz dare not even dream. In 2013, he thought he should be invited to Islamabad. In 2018, it’s a near-right, and possibly now-or-never.

Shahbaz and Hamza have to fight.

This business of south Punjab in an insurrectionist mood also fits in nicely. Ahead of an election, south Punjab always has to agitate. It’s the only time they’re taken seriously and it’s the phase in which to win grand promises.

With party leadership also possibly being contested, south Punjab knows it has to make the maximum racket. Maximal demands at this stage could lead to a greater minimum conceded after the election.

Put all of that together and you can figure out the Shahbaz assault and the Nawaz wobble.

Nawaz is weak, with a weak hand and a weak-ish successor. If you didn’t think this is the time to strike, you’d have no business being in politics.

But there is the other side — Nawaz.

We’ve already seen he can catastrophically miscalculate, so there’s no point ascribing an omniscience or great foresight to him. But if he’s still fighting, we have to assume he still thinks he can win.

Why?

One guess, shared by others close to him, is that Nawaz is not actually trying to re-coronate himself. He doesn’t want to be a fourth-term PM.

Instead, the theory is, by threatening to force his way back in Nawaz is hoping to reach a new kind of adjustment: the party will remain his; Maryam will be the successor; and, in return, the boys will back off.

The problem — for Nawaz — is that that assumes the boys see a difference between Nawaz and Maryam. Need, and desperation, may make Nawaz want to believe that, but it’s not necessarily evident that Maryam would be an acceptable replacement.

The other possibility is more vintage Nawaz: the boys daren’t take over and PML-N will get to the election unscathed enough to win a fresh dose of political capital.

That gels with Nawaz’s relatively casual approach before being ousted and his more belligerent tone since.

If you think the boys aren’t willing to go beyond behind-the-scenes games and pull the plug on the system, then why act like you think they will?

There is also a third possibility: the nuclear option. Pushed hard enough and Nawaz could decide to trigger a coup. No one seriously doubts the boys won’t do it if they decide it has become necessary.

The boys both can and — may.

If you’re Nawaz, back to the wall, humiliated, hounded, even the right to make decisions in your own family denied — the ultimate insult — there’s always the final option.

Let them take over.

Because at that point we’re all back to square one. The countdown to the ouster of the next dictator will have begun. And the inevitable resurrection of the PML-N will have started.

That’s the problem with turf wars: none of the players themselves necessarily lose. Only we, the average Pakistanis, do.

The writer is a member of staff.

 

[Dastaan]