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Myanmar crisis: Will Sk. Hasina seek new allies?
Afsan Chowdhury, October 28, 2017
An albino Rohingya child at the camp on the border with Myanmar that is now home to thousands of refugees. Photo: Reuters/Cathal McNaughton
The Myanmar refugee crisis may cause several contingent problems at local, national and international levels. Old relationships are already under stress and the potential for unexpected new relations with erstwhile foes are emerging too.
Bangladesh has become the new playground of volatility in the region.
China and India though foes in South Asia are competing friends in Myanmar and have added their strength to its position on the Rohingyas.
The wholesale pushing out was a product of a long-term policy that first became public in 1978 and still continues. Myanmar has with some accuracy thinks that Bangladesh on its own is not able to be a robust gatekeeper of its borders and have used this situation analysis to develop a staggered ethnic cleansing policy.
Also Read: India loses the plot on the Rohingya issue: Hands the game to China
In 1978, it happened at a small scale, grew in 1992 and in the last phase has peaked. In executing this policy, Myanmar assessed not just the capacity of Bangladesh’s defense options but the strength of the guarantees provided by its international supporters — China, India and Russia — who see little strategic benefit in supporting Bangladesh at the moment.
The recent visit by Bangladesh’s Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal to Myanmar has not been very positive, sources say. While on paper it is polite, the trickling out suggests that Bangladesh will not see a quick return of refugees if any return barring a token few thousand.
Meanwhile, bdnews24.com, the leading online newspaper has published an item on 27th October, which states that Suu Kyi has said that Rohingyas are not keen to return.
She is also facing huge opposition by militant Buddhists of Myanmar on this plan.
Bangladesh is becoming more aware that not much is about to happen soon making a rethink of its existing strategic options.
Although Ms. Sushma Swaraj, India’s External Affairs Minister visited Bangladesh recently, it didn’t trigger much interest. The message and the reading is that India has no reason to choose between Myanmar and Bangladesh including competing with China in Myanmar. However, India will seek from Dhaka some sort of guarantee of transit passage through Bangladesh to the Indian NE and promises that North East rebels will be denied sanctuary which Sheikh Hasina has done so far.
While, what Bangladesh will do in such a changed scenario is not certain anymore there is only so much that Bangladesh can afford to do when it comes to mighty India.
Bangladesh will operate on a limited leash unless a big friend arrives which at this point can only be the US.
ARSA, ISI and the US
Indian media’s nervousness with Bangladesh since its Myanmar tilt is obvious reflecting official unease with it as well. Several stories have appeared since August 25 in Indian media linking attempts from within the Bangladesh army to topple Sk. Hasina, which were denied by Bangladesh officials.
The last one appeared in Kolkata Telegraph – 26th October – which said that a meeting of senior serving and retired army officers was held on October 21st to discuss a ‘sensitive issue “but the “plan was nipped in the bud.”
Also Read: China wants peaceful solution to Rohingya crisis
The report goes on to add the ARSA factor like the previous stories and that ISI is behind it all but adding that Awami League is very anti-ISI.
This statement probably reflects India’s anxiety about a possible robust presence of Pakistan influence in Bangladesh due to the gap created by India’s tilt. It’s also a possible message that the army, very pro-Hasina is not fully reliable and she may need other friends, possibly India. Sheikh Hasina appears fairly impregnable right now even the stories assert. ISPR has also issued a denial to media.
However, Pakistan’s unpopularity has been diminishing in Bangladesh since India’s Myanmar tilt and India knows that.
If the situation worsens, Bangladesh will consider who can help its cause, which could include historical foe Pakistan and other so called ‘Islamic states’ including Turkey. That something is on, is no secret and Bangladesh has banned three ‘islamic’ NGOs for working ultra vires in the Rohingya camps but the Islamic card remains.
Also Read: India’s firm policy pushes more Rohingyas to Bangladesh
But unlike Bangladesh’s own Jihadi outfits, which are extremely unpopular, ARSA is seen as a militant force created to protect the Rohingyas from the genocidal Myanmar army which has not been criticized by India, China or Russia. Thus, public sympathy is with the Rohingyas and thus ARSA is seen by many as an insurgency outfit not a Jihadi terrorist one.
This fine line of public perception is working for ARSA and its promoters.
New friends and foes?
Meanwhile, patience with international diplomacy is beginning to wear thin and of Rohingyas as well. Stray clashes have been noted between Rohingyas and locals and anxiety about the impact of long term stay now appears lot more in media than in earlier months.
The issue of international refugees is now beginning to become internal political issue and that may force Sk. Hasina to look for new allies more aggressively.
The only big power which has shown interest of being on Bangladesh’s side is the US.
Though generally not popular with the intelligentsia, the options for choosing an ally may be limited for Bangladesh right now. With an election scheduled in 2018 end, Sk. Hasina will want to appear as being in charge. And her need to have allies may be influenced by her political priorities as well.
If that scenario emerges, the US and Pakistan playing some form of role in the wake of the Myanmar crisis is possible no matter how contradictory it sounds.
Uncertain days are clearly ahead but a sea change in internal and external alliance building seems inevitable as the refugees pour into Bangladesh.
https://southasianmonitor.com/2017/10/28/myanmar-crisis-will-sk-hasina-seek-new-allies/
Afsan Chowdhury, October 28, 2017
An albino Rohingya child at the camp on the border with Myanmar that is now home to thousands of refugees. Photo: Reuters/Cathal McNaughton
The Myanmar refugee crisis may cause several contingent problems at local, national and international levels. Old relationships are already under stress and the potential for unexpected new relations with erstwhile foes are emerging too.
Bangladesh has become the new playground of volatility in the region.
China and India though foes in South Asia are competing friends in Myanmar and have added their strength to its position on the Rohingyas.
The wholesale pushing out was a product of a long-term policy that first became public in 1978 and still continues. Myanmar has with some accuracy thinks that Bangladesh on its own is not able to be a robust gatekeeper of its borders and have used this situation analysis to develop a staggered ethnic cleansing policy.
Also Read: India loses the plot on the Rohingya issue: Hands the game to China
In 1978, it happened at a small scale, grew in 1992 and in the last phase has peaked. In executing this policy, Myanmar assessed not just the capacity of Bangladesh’s defense options but the strength of the guarantees provided by its international supporters — China, India and Russia — who see little strategic benefit in supporting Bangladesh at the moment.
The recent visit by Bangladesh’s Home Minister Asaduzzaman Khan Kamal to Myanmar has not been very positive, sources say. While on paper it is polite, the trickling out suggests that Bangladesh will not see a quick return of refugees if any return barring a token few thousand.
Meanwhile, bdnews24.com, the leading online newspaper has published an item on 27th October, which states that Suu Kyi has said that Rohingyas are not keen to return.
She is also facing huge opposition by militant Buddhists of Myanmar on this plan.
Bangladesh is becoming more aware that not much is about to happen soon making a rethink of its existing strategic options.
Although Ms. Sushma Swaraj, India’s External Affairs Minister visited Bangladesh recently, it didn’t trigger much interest. The message and the reading is that India has no reason to choose between Myanmar and Bangladesh including competing with China in Myanmar. However, India will seek from Dhaka some sort of guarantee of transit passage through Bangladesh to the Indian NE and promises that North East rebels will be denied sanctuary which Sheikh Hasina has done so far.
While, what Bangladesh will do in such a changed scenario is not certain anymore there is only so much that Bangladesh can afford to do when it comes to mighty India.
Bangladesh will operate on a limited leash unless a big friend arrives which at this point can only be the US.
ARSA, ISI and the US
Indian media’s nervousness with Bangladesh since its Myanmar tilt is obvious reflecting official unease with it as well. Several stories have appeared since August 25 in Indian media linking attempts from within the Bangladesh army to topple Sk. Hasina, which were denied by Bangladesh officials.
The last one appeared in Kolkata Telegraph – 26th October – which said that a meeting of senior serving and retired army officers was held on October 21st to discuss a ‘sensitive issue “but the “plan was nipped in the bud.”
Also Read: China wants peaceful solution to Rohingya crisis
The report goes on to add the ARSA factor like the previous stories and that ISI is behind it all but adding that Awami League is very anti-ISI.
This statement probably reflects India’s anxiety about a possible robust presence of Pakistan influence in Bangladesh due to the gap created by India’s tilt. It’s also a possible message that the army, very pro-Hasina is not fully reliable and she may need other friends, possibly India. Sheikh Hasina appears fairly impregnable right now even the stories assert. ISPR has also issued a denial to media.
However, Pakistan’s unpopularity has been diminishing in Bangladesh since India’s Myanmar tilt and India knows that.
If the situation worsens, Bangladesh will consider who can help its cause, which could include historical foe Pakistan and other so called ‘Islamic states’ including Turkey. That something is on, is no secret and Bangladesh has banned three ‘islamic’ NGOs for working ultra vires in the Rohingya camps but the Islamic card remains.
Also Read: India’s firm policy pushes more Rohingyas to Bangladesh
But unlike Bangladesh’s own Jihadi outfits, which are extremely unpopular, ARSA is seen as a militant force created to protect the Rohingyas from the genocidal Myanmar army which has not been criticized by India, China or Russia. Thus, public sympathy is with the Rohingyas and thus ARSA is seen by many as an insurgency outfit not a Jihadi terrorist one.
This fine line of public perception is working for ARSA and its promoters.
New friends and foes?
Meanwhile, patience with international diplomacy is beginning to wear thin and of Rohingyas as well. Stray clashes have been noted between Rohingyas and locals and anxiety about the impact of long term stay now appears lot more in media than in earlier months.
The issue of international refugees is now beginning to become internal political issue and that may force Sk. Hasina to look for new allies more aggressively.
The only big power which has shown interest of being on Bangladesh’s side is the US.
Though generally not popular with the intelligentsia, the options for choosing an ally may be limited for Bangladesh right now. With an election scheduled in 2018 end, Sk. Hasina will want to appear as being in charge. And her need to have allies may be influenced by her political priorities as well.
If that scenario emerges, the US and Pakistan playing some form of role in the wake of the Myanmar crisis is possible no matter how contradictory it sounds.
Uncertain days are clearly ahead but a sea change in internal and external alliance building seems inevitable as the refugees pour into Bangladesh.
https://southasianmonitor.com/2017/10/28/myanmar-crisis-will-sk-hasina-seek-new-allies/
