* Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences says droughts, excessive rains to become more frequent
By Iftikhar Gilani
NEW DELHI: Coastal cities like Mumbai and Chennai could be in danger of being submerged by the sea, according to a global warming and climate change scenario sketched by Indias Ministry of Earth Sciences.
India is among 27 countries identified by the United Nations Environment Programme as most vulnerable to sea-level rise, the ministry warns that low-level areas, such as Orissa and West Bengal, could be vulnerable to inundation. It says a small variable rise in temperature could reduce the oceans absorption capability and play much larger havoc than manmade changes.
The ministry says analysis of past tide gauge records for Indian coastline regions gave an estimate sea-level rise of 1.30 mm per year, while a significant increase of around 4 mm per year was indicated in future global projections.
Droughts, rains: Simulations with climate models and observational data have indicated that droughts and spells of excessive rain like the deluge that struck Mumbai in 2005 are likely to become more frequent in India, says the ministry in a report.
It paints a scenario of a major population shift from the coastal cities to other large urban settlements, adding, This would lead to already burdened cities like Delhi, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Pune and Hyderabad accommodating enormous numbers of migrants from the coasts.
The ministry also talks of adverse impacts of climate change on Indias water resources, agriculture and health. It says by 2050, the availability of fresh water in central, south, west and southeast Asia, particularly in large river basins, will decrease while the Asian coastal areas, heavily populated mega-delta regions in south, east and southeast, will be at risk of increased flooding from the sea.
The ministry says accelerated melting of Himalayan glaciers due to the earths warming will have a profound effect on future water availability, as these glaciers feed important rivers like the Ganges, Indus and Brahmputra.
The Gangotri glacier, one of the largest in the Himalayas, has been retreating since a long time. As the glaciers retreat, they become more fragmented. Smaller glaciers are more sensitive to global warming, says the ministry.
It says the projected impact of climate change on Indian agriculture is equally very disturbing. It says productivity of most cereals will decrease due to an increase in temperature and decrease in water availability, especially in the Indo-Gangetic plains.
An increase in climatic extremes - droughts and floods - is likely to increase production variability. The predicted impact on human health due to climate change includes increase in temperature-related illnesses, vector borne diseases like malaria, impact of extreme weather events and food insecurity. The poor, elderly, children and disabled are likely to be most vulnerable to these changes, as they already face limited access to health facilities, says the ministry.
Climate change could increase the incidence of malaria in areas that are already malaria-prone and could introduce malaria in new areas. It requires more emphasis on planning for health facilities, as well as increased capacity of the medical community to cope with these changes, it says.
The ministrys report also gives details of observed changes in climate and weather, like rainfall, temperature and drought, and claims that rainfall would increase by the end of the 21st century by 15-40 percent, while the mean annual temperature would rise by 3-6 degree celsius.
