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As jihad becomes difficult in , al Qaeda leader Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri has India in his crosshairs
By Anupam Dasgupta/Kashmir & Delhi
He is a mortal threat to India and is capable of destabilising south Asia. Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri, 47, has kept the US and Indian intelligence on their toes for over a decade now. His lone eye hidden behind aviator sunglasses, the former operational commander of the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) is arguably the best jihadi commander active anywhere.
The Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), which has been tracking him ever since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, believes that Kashmiri poses a greater threat to India after Osama bin Ladens death than before. Indian and US intelligence communities are sure that Kashmiri will be directly involved in the next major strike in India or the west.
Intelligence collected by the R&AW in the last quarter of 2010 hinted at Kashmiris fresh interest in India. A report circulated among senior national security officials said Kashmiri was reviving his anti-India network. His focus has been primarily restricted to the region for a few years now.
Allegedly, Kashmiri was active across the Line of Control during the Kargil war in 1999 and had a direct role in planning the infiltration into India. In 2004-2005, reports said he was operating in Kashmirs Poonch sector. In 2007, another report said Brigade 313 was recruiting youth from Doda district, Kashmir. The Kashmiri-led Brigade 313 is regarded to be one of the five brigades of the Lashkar al Zil (Shadow Army), al Qaedas military arm.
No new intelligence is available on the Ghazwa-e-Hind, believed to have been created by Kashmiri for exclusively targeting India. Many intelligence analysts think the unit is imaginary. S.M. Sahai, inspector-general of police, Kashmir, told THE WEEK that no fresh information was available on Kashmiri.
US sleuths said Kashmiri was in close touch with FBI agent-turned-LeT operative David Coleman Headley after the 26/11 attacks. It is not confirmed if Kashmiri had plans to ask Headley to case fresh targets in India or in the west. Some intelligence analysts think Kashmiri was closer to Headleys accomplice Tahawwur Hussain Rana, a former Pakistan army captain, than Headley.
Kashmiri has the ability to elicit resources, given his extant links with the Pakistani establishment and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Also there are reasons that they might now want him back in the game, said a R&AW official.
However, Pakistan authorities have denied any links with Kashmiri. We are convinced that he was behind the attempt on former president Pervez Musharraf's life and also planned the attack on GHQ [General headquarters of Pakistan Army in Rawalpindi], Major-General Athar Abbas, director-general of Pakistans Inter-Service Public Relations, told visiting Indian mediamen recently. In fact, Kashmiri was taken into custody following the bid on Musharraf and allegedly tortured. Wondered a colonel in the Pakistan army: Would we cohort with a fellow who tried to kill our chief and bomb our HQ? Incidentally, this is the first time that Pak army authorities have named Kashmiri as the one behind the attack on their GHQ.
Kashmiri was always looking for a fight. He fought the Soviets in Afghanistan and then decided to support the separatists in Kashmir. In between, he had a stint with the Pakistan Armys Special Services Group. He joined al Qaeda in 2004-05 and and took over the reins of Brigade 313. Indian sleuths said Kashmiri brought about a decisive shift in al Qaedas operational thinking. According to US intelligence, he is the only non-Arab to have risen up al Qaeda ranks.
Kashmiri, Indian sleuths said, was based in North Waziristans Miram Shah area in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, after he realised that fighting in Kashmir was not viable in the long run. A shrewd student of military tactics, his gut instinct told him that fighting in Kashmir would need sustained logistical supply. So he shifted his focus to Pakistani tribal areas and launched attacks on Pakistani military installations and on US troops in Afghanistan.
On March 2, 2006, Kashmiris unit bombed the US consulate in Karachi, killing four persons, including diplomat David Foy, and injuring 48 others. Kashmiris stock rose after Brigade 313 made repeated attempts to kill Musharraf. His name also figured in plots aimed at major European cities.
Pakistani journalist Syed Saleem Shahzad, the only one to have interviewed Kashmiri in recent times, said, Kashmiri will continue playing a major role in operational matters. However, it is difficult to speculate on his future moves.
Stephen Tankel, an expert on the Lashkar-e-Toiba at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told THE WEEK: Kashmiri is not as plugged in to al Qaedas global network as some others in the organisation. So we might expect him to continue playing an important role in terms of operations in Pakistan, as well as in the wider south Asian region. He poses a threat to India. That should be taken seriously, though that threat is far from an existential one. Kashmiri invariably endorses attacks against India as he does attacks against Pakistan and various western countries.
A past master at engineering well-honed, low-cost and high impact operations, Kashmiri must have been directly reporting to bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current al Qaeda leader. He even dyed his beard red, a la bin Laden. But ideology was never his forte, so he chose to involve himself in operational stuff, said an intelligence source. US officials said he was the only non-Arab to attend classified al Qaeda strategy sessions.
Following the organisational churning necessitated by bin Ladens killing, Kashmiri might choose to move away from the theatre towards the eastern flanks, said a top R&AW official. This could be for the simple reason that Kashmiri could be finding it hard to hit US-led NATO troops in Afghanistan. India being traditionally a softer target, it makes sound operational thinking for him to switch flanks and move closer to the Indian border.
Kashmiris prior experience in Kashmir will be of added advantage to him. This is no denying that Kashmiri enjoys a great degree of authoritative independence when it comes to choosing targets and shaping considerations that are weighed before a target is finalised. But it is also true that his own Brigade 313 does not have enough members at this point, said an officer of the Indian military intelligence.
According to media reports, Kashmiri dominated the discussions between Central Intelligence Agency Director Leon E. Panetta and Lt. General Ahmad Shuja Pasha, director-general, ISI, when Panetta visited Islamabad in September 2010. Panetta apparently said that US efforts to curb Brigade 313 in north and south Waziristan were going waste as Pakistan was reluctant to nab Kashmiri and his men. The south Waziristan based Teherik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is a natural ally of al Qaeda, and Kashmiri may have been their guest to secure himself from US drone attacks. However, Pakistan army authorities asserted that they had no evidence that there was any formal alliance between the groups operating in South Waziristan and the Taliban or al Qaeda".
Kashmiri is a unifying figure within al Qaeda. He is a dangerous and capable operator. People like Kashmiri could be a convenient tool for the Pakistani establishment when it comes to real operations, said Rick Nelson, a former US Navy officer and director of the homeland security and counter-terrorism programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Washington.
Nelson was selected in 2005 to serve as an inaugural member in the US national counter-terrorism centres directorate of strategic operational planning. He had watched Kashmiris activities and rise closely when he was attached to the US Joint Special Operations Command as part of his last military assignment.
Syed Adnan Ali Shah Bukhari, a Pakistan expert at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, Singapore, said: Kashmiri always had India in the back of his mind. It would be interesting to watch how he cobbles together a small band of trained terrorists for a 26/11 type future hit. Also one needs to see if Kashmiri uses his own Brigade 313 men or picks pro-LeT elements for an attack.
The TTP militants are adept at mountain and rough terrain tactics, but are not so well groomed for urban strikes. Experts bet on the LeT cadre, as they fit Kashmiris requirements.
But there are hurdles along Kashmiris way. Bukhari feels that Kashmiri would find it difficult linking up with the LeT, since he is a Deobandi while the Lashkar cadre are Wahhabis. But there is cooperation between the different sects. Top al Qaeda terrorist Abu Zubaydah was caught hiding inside an LeT safe house in Faisalabad in March 2002.
By virtue of being the richest terrorist organisation anywhere, bankrolled by the wealthy Pakistani diaspora, the LeT might emerge as the key player in the global terrorism arena. In the new scheme of things, the LeT could eventually usurp al Qaeda in the coming days, Nelson said. And it would be interesting to observe what role Kashmiri then plays in al Qaeda.
Tankel said: Several men close to Kashmiri formerly belonged to the LeT and so they act as a bridge to the group. In terms of his relationship with the group [LeT], Kashmiri cooperates and competes with it. That is not so unusualthe militant nexus in Pakistan is characterised by separateness and togetherness.
Kashmiri is feared as he has demonstrated his military ambitions and capabilities on a number of occasions during the past few years. He is a mortal threat to India, said Bill Roggio, senior fellow, Foundation for Defence of Democracies, Washington. Despite his focus changing to the theatre he cut his teeth in Kashmir and my impression is that he would love to take the fight back to India. The US intelligence has changed its mind on Kashmiri from a few years ago, when he was seen as just a local Pakistani jihadi. Now he is considered to be one of their best military commanders, and a dangerous one at that.
As Tankel said, Kashmiri is a valuable commander and has his own network in south Asia as well as a much smaller Rolodex of associates in Europe. So even if he chooses to bleed India, he will remain a big threat to the US and the west at large. Indian intelligence officials, however, believe that Kashmiri will not be allowed to head al Qaeda. The officials say al Qaeda would favour an Arab to lead it. And, al-Zawahiri is an Egyptian. Meanwhile, Kashmiri would remain a ghost, itching to strike at Indian and western targets.
Kashmiri vs India
By Anupam Dasgupta/Kashmir & Delhi
He is a mortal threat to India and is capable of destabilising south Asia. Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri, 47, has kept the US and Indian intelligence on their toes for over a decade now. His lone eye hidden behind aviator sunglasses, the former operational commander of the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI) is arguably the best jihadi commander active anywhere.
The Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW), which has been tracking him ever since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, believes that Kashmiri poses a greater threat to India after Osama bin Ladens death than before. Indian and US intelligence communities are sure that Kashmiri will be directly involved in the next major strike in India or the west.
Intelligence collected by the R&AW in the last quarter of 2010 hinted at Kashmiris fresh interest in India. A report circulated among senior national security officials said Kashmiri was reviving his anti-India network. His focus has been primarily restricted to the region for a few years now.
Allegedly, Kashmiri was active across the Line of Control during the Kargil war in 1999 and had a direct role in planning the infiltration into India. In 2004-2005, reports said he was operating in Kashmirs Poonch sector. In 2007, another report said Brigade 313 was recruiting youth from Doda district, Kashmir. The Kashmiri-led Brigade 313 is regarded to be one of the five brigades of the Lashkar al Zil (Shadow Army), al Qaedas military arm.
No new intelligence is available on the Ghazwa-e-Hind, believed to have been created by Kashmiri for exclusively targeting India. Many intelligence analysts think the unit is imaginary. S.M. Sahai, inspector-general of police, Kashmir, told THE WEEK that no fresh information was available on Kashmiri.
US sleuths said Kashmiri was in close touch with FBI agent-turned-LeT operative David Coleman Headley after the 26/11 attacks. It is not confirmed if Kashmiri had plans to ask Headley to case fresh targets in India or in the west. Some intelligence analysts think Kashmiri was closer to Headleys accomplice Tahawwur Hussain Rana, a former Pakistan army captain, than Headley.
Kashmiri has the ability to elicit resources, given his extant links with the Pakistani establishment and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Also there are reasons that they might now want him back in the game, said a R&AW official.
However, Pakistan authorities have denied any links with Kashmiri. We are convinced that he was behind the attempt on former president Pervez Musharraf's life and also planned the attack on GHQ [General headquarters of Pakistan Army in Rawalpindi], Major-General Athar Abbas, director-general of Pakistans Inter-Service Public Relations, told visiting Indian mediamen recently. In fact, Kashmiri was taken into custody following the bid on Musharraf and allegedly tortured. Wondered a colonel in the Pakistan army: Would we cohort with a fellow who tried to kill our chief and bomb our HQ? Incidentally, this is the first time that Pak army authorities have named Kashmiri as the one behind the attack on their GHQ.
Kashmiri was always looking for a fight. He fought the Soviets in Afghanistan and then decided to support the separatists in Kashmir. In between, he had a stint with the Pakistan Armys Special Services Group. He joined al Qaeda in 2004-05 and and took over the reins of Brigade 313. Indian sleuths said Kashmiri brought about a decisive shift in al Qaedas operational thinking. According to US intelligence, he is the only non-Arab to have risen up al Qaeda ranks.
Kashmiri, Indian sleuths said, was based in North Waziristans Miram Shah area in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, after he realised that fighting in Kashmir was not viable in the long run. A shrewd student of military tactics, his gut instinct told him that fighting in Kashmir would need sustained logistical supply. So he shifted his focus to Pakistani tribal areas and launched attacks on Pakistani military installations and on US troops in Afghanistan.
On March 2, 2006, Kashmiris unit bombed the US consulate in Karachi, killing four persons, including diplomat David Foy, and injuring 48 others. Kashmiris stock rose after Brigade 313 made repeated attempts to kill Musharraf. His name also figured in plots aimed at major European cities.
Pakistani journalist Syed Saleem Shahzad, the only one to have interviewed Kashmiri in recent times, said, Kashmiri will continue playing a major role in operational matters. However, it is difficult to speculate on his future moves.
Stephen Tankel, an expert on the Lashkar-e-Toiba at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told THE WEEK: Kashmiri is not as plugged in to al Qaedas global network as some others in the organisation. So we might expect him to continue playing an important role in terms of operations in Pakistan, as well as in the wider south Asian region. He poses a threat to India. That should be taken seriously, though that threat is far from an existential one. Kashmiri invariably endorses attacks against India as he does attacks against Pakistan and various western countries.
A past master at engineering well-honed, low-cost and high impact operations, Kashmiri must have been directly reporting to bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, the current al Qaeda leader. He even dyed his beard red, a la bin Laden. But ideology was never his forte, so he chose to involve himself in operational stuff, said an intelligence source. US officials said he was the only non-Arab to attend classified al Qaeda strategy sessions.
Following the organisational churning necessitated by bin Ladens killing, Kashmiri might choose to move away from the theatre towards the eastern flanks, said a top R&AW official. This could be for the simple reason that Kashmiri could be finding it hard to hit US-led NATO troops in Afghanistan. India being traditionally a softer target, it makes sound operational thinking for him to switch flanks and move closer to the Indian border.
Kashmiris prior experience in Kashmir will be of added advantage to him. This is no denying that Kashmiri enjoys a great degree of authoritative independence when it comes to choosing targets and shaping considerations that are weighed before a target is finalised. But it is also true that his own Brigade 313 does not have enough members at this point, said an officer of the Indian military intelligence.
According to media reports, Kashmiri dominated the discussions between Central Intelligence Agency Director Leon E. Panetta and Lt. General Ahmad Shuja Pasha, director-general, ISI, when Panetta visited Islamabad in September 2010. Panetta apparently said that US efforts to curb Brigade 313 in north and south Waziristan were going waste as Pakistan was reluctant to nab Kashmiri and his men. The south Waziristan based Teherik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is a natural ally of al Qaeda, and Kashmiri may have been their guest to secure himself from US drone attacks. However, Pakistan army authorities asserted that they had no evidence that there was any formal alliance between the groups operating in South Waziristan and the Taliban or al Qaeda".
Kashmiri is a unifying figure within al Qaeda. He is a dangerous and capable operator. People like Kashmiri could be a convenient tool for the Pakistani establishment when it comes to real operations, said Rick Nelson, a former US Navy officer and director of the homeland security and counter-terrorism programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Washington.
Nelson was selected in 2005 to serve as an inaugural member in the US national counter-terrorism centres directorate of strategic operational planning. He had watched Kashmiris activities and rise closely when he was attached to the US Joint Special Operations Command as part of his last military assignment.
Syed Adnan Ali Shah Bukhari, a Pakistan expert at the International Centre for Political Violence and Terrorism Research, Singapore, said: Kashmiri always had India in the back of his mind. It would be interesting to watch how he cobbles together a small band of trained terrorists for a 26/11 type future hit. Also one needs to see if Kashmiri uses his own Brigade 313 men or picks pro-LeT elements for an attack.
The TTP militants are adept at mountain and rough terrain tactics, but are not so well groomed for urban strikes. Experts bet on the LeT cadre, as they fit Kashmiris requirements.
But there are hurdles along Kashmiris way. Bukhari feels that Kashmiri would find it difficult linking up with the LeT, since he is a Deobandi while the Lashkar cadre are Wahhabis. But there is cooperation between the different sects. Top al Qaeda terrorist Abu Zubaydah was caught hiding inside an LeT safe house in Faisalabad in March 2002.
By virtue of being the richest terrorist organisation anywhere, bankrolled by the wealthy Pakistani diaspora, the LeT might emerge as the key player in the global terrorism arena. In the new scheme of things, the LeT could eventually usurp al Qaeda in the coming days, Nelson said. And it would be interesting to observe what role Kashmiri then plays in al Qaeda.
Tankel said: Several men close to Kashmiri formerly belonged to the LeT and so they act as a bridge to the group. In terms of his relationship with the group [LeT], Kashmiri cooperates and competes with it. That is not so unusualthe militant nexus in Pakistan is characterised by separateness and togetherness.
Kashmiri is feared as he has demonstrated his military ambitions and capabilities on a number of occasions during the past few years. He is a mortal threat to India, said Bill Roggio, senior fellow, Foundation for Defence of Democracies, Washington. Despite his focus changing to the theatre he cut his teeth in Kashmir and my impression is that he would love to take the fight back to India. The US intelligence has changed its mind on Kashmiri from a few years ago, when he was seen as just a local Pakistani jihadi. Now he is considered to be one of their best military commanders, and a dangerous one at that.
As Tankel said, Kashmiri is a valuable commander and has his own network in south Asia as well as a much smaller Rolodex of associates in Europe. So even if he chooses to bleed India, he will remain a big threat to the US and the west at large. Indian intelligence officials, however, believe that Kashmiri will not be allowed to head al Qaeda. The officials say al Qaeda would favour an Arab to lead it. And, al-Zawahiri is an Egyptian. Meanwhile, Kashmiri would remain a ghost, itching to strike at Indian and western targets.
Kashmiri vs India
