Pakistan Defence

Ahmedabad: Will Modi survive the fresh revolt by his bête noire Keshubhai Patel this time? If history is any indicator, it seems likely. There have been at least three serious attempts in the past to unseat the Gujarat chief minister. Each time he has not only survived adversities but also emerged stronger.

The first wave of revolt against Modi surfaced in 2004 when a group of more than 62 MLAs complained to the party high command about Modi’s dictatorial style of functioning and rallied their support against the chief minister under the leadership of former MP and senior leader AK Patel. The opposition gathered steam after the party failed to perform up to expectations in 2004 Lok Sabha elections under Modi’s leadership. But the anti-modi camp lost its tempo after the BJP high command batted strongly for him. Observers believe that Keshubhai was remote controlling the revolt.

Facing challenges. PTI

A year later, Keshubhai Patel again tried to escalate rebellion against Modi terming the political atmosphere in the state a ‘mini emergency’ but rebels could not muster enough support and finally Modi had the last laugh. They had charged Modi with illegally tapping telephones of MLAs sympathetic to Patel patriarch Keshubhai.

The discontent in the anti-Modi camp kept simmering and came to boil in December 2007 again. The assembly elections were supposed to be a show of the Patel might against Modi. To make good their threat, the group roped in three known rebel faces—former Union minister Kashiram Rana, Vallabh Kathoria and former minister in Modi government Gordhan Zadafia—to their cause. An ambitious target of gathering five to seven lakh Leuva patel for Patel sammelan in Surat was organised to make the announcement of the end Modi’s rule.

But Keshubhai developed cold feet and didn’t turn up. The fiasco in Surat made Patels believe that Modi’s is going to remain in power and ‘Keshubapa’ (fondly addressed by community) has become a spent force.

Keshubhai Patel is back to take his fight against Modi to the next level. He is no more remote-controlling the resistance to the chief minister, he is spearheading it. This is do-or-die scenario for him. Besides proving that he is strong enough to take on Modi, he has to prove that he actually commands popular support among the Patels.

The Patels, the traditional farming community in the state and a strong electoral force, are an interesting story in themselves. The Patel community is divided into Leuvas and Kadvas. Between them the groups account for 22 percent out of total 1.5 crore voters in the state. According to unconfirmed reports, the Leuva Patels constitute (16 percent) and Kadva Patels (6 percent). Kadvas are traditionally aligned with BJP and considered to be staunch its supporters while Leuva Patels generally side with a winning combination amenable to Patels.

The Leuvas could prove to be a game changer in Gujarat’s politics, particularly in the politically crucial Saurashtra region. Keshubhai realises the equation well. However, they are still distrustful of Keshubhai after the 2007 fiasco. There are several Leuva Patel leaders in the party and the government to nullify Keshubhai factor. Patel’s from both the community have almost equal representation in Modi’s ministry. In Keshubhai’s ministry the representation was almost the same.

If everything goes by Keshubhai’s script, he could make a huge dent in Modi’s votes in Saurasthra and central Gujarat. The Leuvas are in a majority in entire Saurasthra, barring parts of Surendranagar district and in Nadiad, Kheda and Anand belt. Kadvas Patel are dominant in entire the North Gujarat region.

But Keshubhai has nothing to be too enthusiastic about at this point. The congregation of Patels against Modi at Dholka in June this year, organised at the behest of Keshubhai, was a flop show. The turnout was abysmally low. Modi, according to political observers, had put into use the services of several Patel leaders from his camp to dissuade Patels in the region attending the congregation. The chief minister again had the upper hand in his fight against Keshubhai. It was evident that he had successfully dismantled the old Patel leadership and erected a new one.

However, Modi should not be too confident. The Leuvas seem to have organised themselves better this time and the mobilisation has been gathering momentum over the last one year. At a non-political platform—a yajna to establish a grand temple of ‘Khodiyar Mata’, the deity worshipped by Leuva Patels—at Khodaldham in Rajkot district in January this year, around seven lakh Leuvas informally took a vow to politically finish Modi by consolidating its votes. If they decide to make good their threat, it could be bad news for the chief minister.


Modi vs Keshubhai: In Patel zone, Modi always makes it a no-contest | Firstpost