Modi government is Congress plus a cow, says BJP leader Arun Shourie

[Bang Galore]

Modi government is Congress plus a cow, says BJP leader Arun Shourie

Chief Economic Advisor Arving Subranamian was also part of the discussion. He said the tenor of Shourie's criticism misrepresents economic stability that "we have achieved".
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Could not stop laughing at Arun Shourie's statement.
The chief economic advisor says that Mr.Shourie has overlooked the fact that we are economically stable now. I'm not anti-Modi but I find this claim flawed because rupee's value hasn't improved yet. The government hasn't achieved any tangible results socially and economically, or may be its too soon to judge this government.
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Arun Shourie's comment was very funny with an element of bitter truth to that line but I would think this is harsh assessment & probably valid only in context to the high expectations placed on Mr.Modi & his government.

As Arvind Subramanian said quoting Jagdish Bhagwati cracking a joke in his book -
The wife of an economist asked him - "do you love me?" The economist replied with the answer "in relation to what?"

The point he made was everything is relative and that the Modi government's performance must be seen in context to the state of the economy when UPA left the scene. I think that the Modi government gets treated harshly because not many understand the actual mess that was left by the UPA .

I think the fiscal situation is much improved & while much of it can be attributed to the luck of a fall in oil prices, it would be churlish not to give some credit to the government.

Arun Shourie is right in the specifics he mentioned that the government has done a series of missteps on the investment front and that is directly the fault of the Finance Ministry. Shourie is also right that the government is inexplicably timid when it comes to real reforms and the disinvestment is pretty much a sham with LIC doing all the buying. I tend to agree that this government could have & should have done a lot more but it seems to lurch from election to elections & is losing momentum on reform with every passing day.

Inspite of that, I think that there is no comparison whatsoever to the scam tainted & non governing rubbish that was the UPA. There I have to disagree and I think anyone reasonably fair would agree with my view. We could have done without the cow though.....

 

[Spectre]

We could have done without the cow though.....

Blasphemy!!

Excellent analysis. For the sake of fairness, I would have added that intransigent opposition with their numbers in upper house makes many reforms a non-starter.and have stalled other very crucial reforms necessary to have a sustained growth.

On Disinvestment front - market indicators are not conducive hence it is better to improve these PSU's by adding value rather than selling them short. Otherwise the only option is incestuous buying by LIC to save GoI the blushes.

 

[Star Wars]

Arun Shourie's comment was very funny with an element of bitter truth to that line but I would think this is harsh assessment & probably valid only in context to the high expectations placed on Mr.Modi & his government.

As Arvind Subramanian said quoting Jagdish Bhagwati cracking a joke in his book -
The wife of an economist asked him - "do you love me?" The economist replied with the answer "in relation to what?"

The point he made was everything is relative and that the Modi government's performance must be seen in context to the state of the economy when UPA left the scene. I think that the Modi government gets treated harshly because not many understand the actual mess that was left by the UPA .

I think the fiscal situation is much improved & while much of it can be attributed to the luck of a fall in oil prices, it would be churlish not to give some credit to the government.

Arun Shourie is right in the specifics he mentioned that the government has done a series of missteps on the investment front and that is directly the fault of the Finance Ministry. Shourie is also right that the government is inexplicably timid when it comes to real reforms and the disinvestment is pretty much a sham with LIC doing all the buying. I tend to agree that this government could have & should have done a lot more but it seems to lurch from election to elections & is losing momentum on reform with every passing day.

Inspite of that, I think that there is no comparison whatsoever to the scam tainted & non governing rubbish that was the UPA. There I have to disagree and I think anyone reasonably fair would agree with my view. We could have done without the cow though.....

I would take anything Arun says with a bucket full of salt, as someone said earlier the timing of this right before Bihar elections is questionable. I would agree with you on disinvestment, as for loosing momentum on reform, i don't understand how you make that assessment especially when you reference it to elections. Bihar alone will decide how the reform process goes. Govt. has been taking a lot of executive decisions lately, reforms will continue if Bihar is one and will be a problem if Bihar is lost. Its really that simple.So i don;t see much hurdle or issues in reform process for the moment other than the failure of the previous parliament session.Everything will be decided in the winter session of parliament, if bills fail to pass, then reform process will be in trouble.

 

[Bang Galore]

Blasphemy!!

Excellent analysis. For the sake of fairness, I would have added that intransigent opposition is with their numbers in upper house makes many reforms a non-starter.

That was actually taken up by Shourie right at the very start of this government where he predicted that this would be the opposition reaction and so not to get tied up with parliament where gridlock was certain (the BJP had done the same when in opposition) and go with executive orders where possible & get going on those reforms that does not need parliamentary approval.

Specifically, he mentioned the land bill (land is a state subject anyways)where he said that it is better to leave it to states to change the law with the centre giving its consent to those state laws. He also pushed for getting states to change their labour & industrial laws & not look for it to get through parliament which he said would end up blocked. One has to wonder about the wisdom of the managers in this government who misread the situation wrt parliament so badly.

 

[Star Wars]

. We could have done without the cow though.....

Of course, if Hindus value anything then that is the first things which will be used for headlines to ridicule us .

 

[jaunty]

The first term of MMS was in fact good and can be equaled (excelled in certain fields by Modi). Modi has great plans and I strongly hope those getting matured and start delivering results in future just to overshadow the opposition roar over petty (no disrespect to any community here, and sometimes I feel they are framed) issues will come and haunt the unicorn.

People were certainly happy with UPA-I and the voting numbers in 2009 reflected that although much of what came later had their roots in that period.

The success of this govt lies at its core agenda, development, else its will be as bad as....

Modi is a very smart man. He understands it very well although some of his party members, especially the online warriors are extremely delusional. They weren't this delusional even during the "India shining" period.

 

[Levina]

You said nothing Tangible was done..what is your definition of "tangible"

Yes. I did.
I have changed my view after reading a few posts. Khush?

 

[Star Wars]

Specifically, he mentioned the land bill (land is a state subject anyways)where he said that it is better to leave it to states to change the law with the centre giving its consent to those state laws. He also pushed for getting states to change their labour & industrial laws & not look for it to get through parliament which he said would end up blocked. One has to wonder about the wisdom of the managers in this government who misread the situation wrt parliament so badly.

Hasn't states already carried a lot of reform process ? its has not been mentioned in the media but states have been undergoing reform, let me check the govt. websites to find out what has been done. But A.P, Rajsatshan along with other states have come out with rather creative solutions

I have changed my view after reading a few posts. Khush?

Yes

 

[Levina]

I think the fiscal situation is much improved & while much of it can be attributed to the luck of a fall in oil prices, it would be churlish not to give some credit to the government.

True.
While they were lucky with fuel prices, they're unlucky with monsoon. Any impact on agriculture will have a direct impact on economy...or so I assume.

Yes

Katti.

 

[Star Wars]

True.
While they were lucky with fuel prices, they're unlucky with monsoon. Any impact on agriculture will have a direct impact on economy...or so I assume.
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unlucky is an understatement, some places in Maharstra have had 50% lesss rainfall..

 

[Bang Galore]

I would take anything Arun says with a bucket full of salt, as someone said earlier the timing of this right before Bihar elections is questionable.

No connection to Bihar elections, not like there is that much appetite for right wing economics that Shourie is suggesting. This was a book launch of Ninan & shourie happened to make his comments there. He has been progressively harsher even in his last few interviews.

I would agree with you on disinvestment, as for loosing momentum on reform, i don't understand how you make that assessment especially when you reference it to elections. Bihar alone will decide how the reform process goes. Govt. has been taking a lot of executive decisions lately, reforms will continue if Bihar is one and will be a problem if Bihar is lost. Its really that simple.So i don;t see much hurdle or issues in reform process for the moment other than the failure of the previous parliament session.Everything will be decided in the winter session of parliament, if bills fail to pass, then reform process will be in trouble

More that the government had its best chance in the 1st year where people were more willing to give it a chance because that is what they had voted for- a change of functioning. The government will find it progressively harder to push deep reforms without considerable opposition & some attention getting paid to the outcry which might not have been the case very early on. The point is that it becomes harder, not that it cannot be done but this has been time wasted.

Too much is at risk in the Bihar election with the strategy now employed & as you say, it might depend on the outcome. However significant change to the RS (if BJP wins) will only start in 2016 and if they happen to do badly in Bihar, the push for reforms will simply lose traction, essentially undermining the mandate of 2014 because of state elections. My point was that we should have already got some tough reforms out of the way & maybe we would have seen a more major recovery happening which would have helped the government make its case.

 

[Echo_419]

Though annual self-scrutiny is a necessary component for a political democracy, I want this government to complete it's full term in office before we can start evaluating its successes and failures. It's record so far has been disappointing enough for mainly ambitious tax reforms or land acquisition bills have been put on back burner. Too much priority had been given on issues where they were absolutely unnecessary and meaningless. But lets give them full opportunity to prove they are better than the previous one and then let the people decide through ballots.

I agree with you so far the performance is above-average at its best

 

[Spectre]

That was actually taken by Shourie right at the very start of this government where he predicted that this would be the opposition reaction and so not to get tied up with parliament where gridlock was certain (the BJP had done the same when in opposition) and go with executive orders where possible & get going on those reforms that does not need parliamentary approval.

Specifically, he mentioned the land bill (land is a state subject anyways)where he said that it is better to leave it to states to change the law with the centre giving its consent to those state laws. He also pushed for getting states to change their labour & industrial laws & not look for it to get through parliament which he said would end up blocked. One has to wonder about the wisdom of the managers in this government who misread the situation wrt parliament so badly.

Sorry for being blunt but the state legislature with few notable exceptions is a mess. If any law is indeed drafted then it would so full of loopholes that an elephant could pass through it. Though Land is a state subject , "acquisition and requisitioning of property" is in the concurrent list. Both Parliament and state legislatures can make laws on this subject.
Investors are more likely to be scared off by wildly inconsistent state laws on land from one state to other so it is better that center drafts a consistent and legally tenable law that can't be easily challenged and changed by successive state govts and courts.

In less the ideal conditions such as the present scenario - Govt has no options but to cut the devil's bargain with TMC and SP so that these legislation pass. If needed pressure can be applied through central agencies which has been done to an extent. Leaving it all to incapable hands of state govt is half assed solution for so important an issue.

At the risk of repeating myself - Everything needs to be iron tight with not even a shadow of a weakness.

 

[Levina]

unlucky is an understatement, some places in Maharstra have had 50% lesss rainfall..

Anything less than 90% means a deficient rainfall. The prediction for this year was, agricultural sector would reduce by 5%, subsequently taking away 0.7% from the overall GDP growth of India. In short, we have to reduce our dependence on monsoon.

 

[Bang Galore]

Hasn't states already carried a lot of reform process ? its has not been mentioned in the media but states have been undergoing reform, let me check the govt. websites to find out what has been done. But A.P, Rajsatshan along with other states have come out with rather creative solutions

Some but the government should have gone the whole hog using that route instead of throwing away political capital on the land bill etc. That, even you have to agree, has been an unmitigated disaster & shows very poor planning. Jaitley has goofed up in his handling of many issues creating unnecessary concern about the government's handling of simple issues even.