Mangla non-filling may hit water supply to Punjab

[FOOLS_NIGHTMARE]

The Mangla dam, the biggest water reservoir of the country, may not be filled this year, jeopardising 13 million acre feet (MAF) Rabi supplies to Punjab and endangering wheat crop in the province and food security of the country.

The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) now seems resigned to the fact, saying: “If the country has much above normal monsoon, the Mangla Lake may touch a level of 1,210 to 1,220 feet against its optimum level of 1,242 feet.”

The alarm bells started ringing when the lake, which should have gone much beyond 1,200 feet (80 percent of its capacity), by June 30, stood at 1,152 feet. According to the Irsa plan, Mangla Lake was supposed to [have filled] 1,216 feet, holding 5.6 million acre feet. Its actual position on July 1 was 1,153 feet, containing only 1.9maf water – a massive deficit of 3.7maf water.

“The Irsa was expecting 42maf water from April 1 to June 30,” says Iras spokesman Khalid Idrees Rana. “What it actually got is 35maf, with a deficit of 7maf or over 16pc loss. This loss was met with additional draw down of dams and Mangla became a victim. Additional water was also drawn from Tarbella, but Mangla, missing first deadline (June 30), could cause serious trouble. It looks to be a repeat of 2018 situation, when the lake level was 1,115 feet on June 30 and Irsa was able to ultimately fill it by 80pc. From current level, the lake would be totally dependent upon the monsoon and the only question now is how closer it gets to the optimum level, certainly without getting filled,” Rana says, adding “The Irsa would be supporting Mangla filling as soon as supplies improve on Indus arm. It would reduce releases from Mangla corresponding to the increase in Chenab and Indus – by transferring water though the link canals (CJ and TP).”


The Punjab, however, continues refusing to buy the Irsa argument and holds it responsible for, what it calls the current water mess. “When the river supplies started receding, Irsa, instead of passing the deficit on to the provinces, started emptying dams. It knew that Sindh was reporting grossly exaggerated water losses and Irsa itself was disputing those loss figures. However, it still provided additional 2.5maf water to Sindh because of those notional figures and did so at the cost of Mangla filling. Why rue it now? This deficit would now threaten Pakistan’s food security next Rabi and Irsa will be held responsible for it,” says an official of the Punjab Irrigation Department.

“On a positive note, river supplies have started improving,” an optimistic Rana explains. In the last 24 hours alone, the supplies have jumped by 20,000 cusecs – from 240,000 cusecs on Wednesday to 260,000 cusecs on Thursday. Temperatures are rising in Indus catchment, which is a good sign: on Thursday, mercury in Skardu touched 31.7 degrees Celsius and even minimum was 20 degrees Celsius, which is more important. If the minimum temperatures drop below 15 degrees Celsius, night melting stops. If the temperature holds, national supplies should improve substantially and bring relief to everyone. Irsa cannot draw more than 131,000 cusecs right now because Tunnel 3 and 4 cannot be operated due to low water level. In the next 2-3 days, level of Tarbella should allow drawing of 155,000 cusecs and bring national relief,” he concludes.

Mangla non-filling may hit water supply to Punjab

Punjab holds Irsa responsible for the current water mess.

www.dawn.com

 

[Blacklight]

Out of the frying pan?
Tahir Rizavi 27 Jun 2021


Pakistan’s power sector seems to be a victim of déjà vu. Last year, the nation was gripped by a fuel shortage which hindered electricity production and saw long queues of cars lined outside pumping stations. A comprehensive inquiry was launched into the reasons behind the incident, which led to the ouster of Special Assistant to the Prime Minister Nadeem Babar.

This year, a similarly precarious situation is threatening to upend the power sector. The Qadirpur gas field supplying fuel to SNGPL has been abruptly scheduled for maintenance, which is causing a shortfall of approximately 200 million cubic feet of gas (mmcfd) – almost 25-30% of the requirement for power generation. SSGC has also announced its own shutdowns at the Kunnar-Pasakhi Deep field, which will bring a 170mmcfd shortfall to SSGC’s quota. Simultaneously, Tarbela Dam is also under maintenance and operating sub-optimally, reducing the contribution of hydropower to the national generation mix.

Compounding this issue is a dearth of furnace oil supply. Ironically, the historically low demand of the power sector (due to the dependence and utility of RLNG) was cited as a reason by Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) to reduce their uptake of furnace oil, pushing refineries to reduce their production. Almost as if in response, the dry-docking of the Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU) is being scheduled for the end of June. Expected to last until the first week of July, this activity will drop the amount of RLNG being brought into the country as well.

Two weeks ago, Nepra had called a hearing of the CEOs of all Distribution Companies (Discos) and K-Electric, seeking an explanation for the load-shedding taking place across the country. A generation shortfall had been triggered by maintenance work on two turbines of Tarbela Dam, but different sources reported different numbers of the reduced megawatts. Official sources quoted 1500MW while others said the deficit was actually as much as 6500MW.

In addition to the reduced generation, inadequate transmission capacity in the national grid and theft of electricity compounded the issue. Discos were unable to draw their allocated electricity quotas, which translated into load-shed ranging between 3 to 20 hours across various parts of the country. PKR 347.435 billion had been invested by the 10 Discos over the period of seven years to improve their transmission and distribution losses, but the mammoth investment had only yielded a trivial decrease of 0.9%.

It seems that the country is not yet out of the frying pan but is heading into the fire as reports have begun to break about a shortage of RLNG, furnace oil, and water – three of the biggest sources of power generation for the country.

SNGPL has also only pledged the availability of 300MMCFD RLNG against a requirement of 900MMCFD; even this 300MMCFD is not a firm commitment. The maintenance activity itself normally takes 3 weeks, but on the request of the Oil and Gas Development Corporation Limited (OGDCL), the work is being expedited for completion in 8 to 9 days. This is an optimistic timeline, and one hopes that is also realistic.

Maintenance of hydropower turbines is usually scheduled for the winters, but surprisingly two units of Tarbela Dam had to be shut down for maintenance work during peak summer, which caused the shortfall in the beginning of the month and cascaded into load-shedding for citizens all over Pakistan. In a meeting between Chairman Indus River System Authority and Secretary Power Division, the Chairman clearly stated that it would not be possible to increase the output of Tarbela and Mangla dams until August owing to a number of external factors. Further, increasing the outflow from Mangla would come at the expense of the quota allocated for Rabi crop for Sindh and Punjab.

Furnace oil is also being affected because of the ban on imports since 2019. If thermal power plants across the country are expected to utilize furnace oil to operate, it is imperative that they have sufficient inventory to fulfill the requirements. But using additional furnace oil to bridge the generation shortfall will exhaust this inventory quicker. Without an adequate rate of replacement, this will continue to compound the problem.

So, we are in a situation where our cheapest sources of generation will be underperforming, and without RLNG, natural gas, or furnace oil, the only option left for the government will be to operate power plants on High-Speed Diesel (HSD). HSD is an expensive fuel source, and utilizing it will invariably increase the cost of electricity for end consumers, because the additional charges will be recovered through Fuel Cost Adjustments in bills. It seems that the current circumstances are not just trapping DISCOs between a rock and a hard place, but also consumers across the country – on the one hand they will have to pay higher costs of electricity; on the other hand they will have to bear excess load-shed. It is also important to mention that not all power plants across the company can operate on a dual-fuel arrangement. This means that it is possible that even the utilization of HSD to generate power will not be able to bridge the shortfall caused by a lack of principle fuel supply.

It is a very precarious situation to be in especially as temperatures are expected to increase as well as the humidity level during the monsoon season, driving a corresponding increase in demand of electricity. Could planning and better governance have prevented this predicted shortfall?

It is also alarming that Pakistan still has to face these shortages despite having invested heavily in increasing generation capacity. There has also been an almost 20% increase in electricity demand over the last 11 months of FY21, but there is still more generation available in the country. With this simultaneous shortage though, all the government’s investments will be for naught. This includes the USD 800 million invested by the government in the last 2.5 years to improve the transmission and distribution system, and the USD 117 million earmarked for the upcoming fiscal year.

It is unfortunate that despite the efforts of all stakeholders to bolster Pakistan’s energy sector, unexpected setbacks continue to prevent the sector from fully realizing its potential. We seem to be moving from one crisis to another. The current situation requires the intervention of all concerned stakeholders and government ministries to prevent it from escalating into a nationwide crisis. The citizens of the country have already been suffering under excess load-shed; it is time that the government step in and utilize its resources to support them at this critical juncture.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2021

 

[ghazi52]

Today.

Reservoirs (at 0600 hrs)
Reservoir.....Reservoir Level (ft)......Live Storage Capacity (MAF).....Min. OperatingMax. ConservationToday .... MaximumToday

................................................ Feet........ Max

Tarbela	1392.00	1550.00	1432.05	5.882	0.696
Mangla	1050.00	1242.00	1153.15	7.356	1.907
Chashma	638.15	649.00	644.60	0.278	0.115
			Total	13.516	2.718

 

[ghazi52]

Station

(Cusecs)

Rim Stations inflow outflow remarks Indus at Tarbela 144800 130100 Mean of 24 hrs Kabul at Nowshera 35900 35900 -do- Jhelum at Mangla 44300 40000 -do- Chenab at Marala 67100 34000

 

[Major Sam]

incompetence at its peak.

 

[alee92nawaz]

View attachment 758818

The Mangla dam, the biggest water reservoir of the country, may not be filled this year, jeopardising 13 million acre feet (MAF) Rabi supplies to Punjab and endangering wheat crop in the province and food security of the country.

The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) now seems resigned to the fact, saying: “If the country has much above normal monsoon, the Mangla Lake may touch a level of 1,210 to 1,220 feet against its optimum level of 1,242 feet.”

The alarm bells started ringing when the lake, which should have gone much beyond 1,200 feet (80 percent of its capacity), by June 30, stood at 1,152 feet. According to the Irsa plan, Mangla Lake was supposed to [have filled] 1,216 feet, holding 5.6 million acre feet. Its actual position on July 1 was 1,153 feet, containing only 1.9maf water – a massive deficit of 3.7maf water.

“The Irsa was expecting 42maf water from April 1 to June 30,” says Iras spokesman Khalid Idrees Rana. “What it actually got is 35maf, with a deficit of 7maf or over 16pc loss. This loss was met with additional draw down of dams and Mangla became a victim. Additional water was also drawn from Tarbella, but Mangla, missing first deadline (June 30), could cause serious trouble. It looks to be a repeat of 2018 situation, when the lake level was 1,115 feet on June 30 and Irsa was able to ultimately fill it by 80pc. From current level, the lake would be totally dependent upon the monsoon and the only question now is how closer it gets to the optimum level, certainly without getting filled,” Rana says, adding “The Irsa would be supporting Mangla filling as soon as supplies improve on Indus arm. It would reduce releases from Mangla corresponding to the increase in Chenab and Indus – by transferring water though the link canals (CJ and TP).”


The Punjab, however, continues refusing to buy the Irsa argument and holds it responsible for, what it calls the current water mess. “When the river supplies started receding, Irsa, instead of passing the deficit on to the provinces, started emptying dams. It knew that Sindh was reporting grossly exaggerated water losses and Irsa itself was disputing those loss figures. However, it still provided additional 2.5maf water to Sindh because of those notional figures and did so at the cost of Mangla filling. Why rue it now? This deficit would now threaten Pakistan’s food security next Rabi and Irsa will be held responsible for it,” says an official of the Punjab Irrigation Department.

“On a positive note, river supplies have started improving,” an optimistic Rana explains. In the last 24 hours alone, the supplies have jumped by 20,000 cusecs – from 240,000 cusecs on Wednesday to 260,000 cusecs on Thursday. Temperatures are rising in Indus catchment, which is a good sign: on Thursday, mercury in Skardu touched 31.7 degrees Celsius and even minimum was 20 degrees Celsius, which is more important. If the minimum temperatures drop below 15 degrees Celsius, night melting stops. If the temperature holds, national supplies should improve substantially and bring relief to everyone. Irsa cannot draw more than 131,000 cusecs right now because Tunnel 3 and 4 cannot be operated due to low water level. In the next 2-3 days, level of Tarbella should allow drawing of 155,000 cusecs and bring national relief,” he concludes.

Mangla non-filling may hit water supply to Punjab

Punjab holds Irsa responsible for the current water mess.

www.dawn.com

Drip irrigation is the only way forward.

 

[AsifIjaz]

A drop in river flow has been touted since long by academics and all international and government agencies.
Once every few years we may get a normal or above normal water flow or we may get rains above the mean level.. we must be prepared to store the extra water for that year and the future.

With upstream water reservoirs are expected to decreased silting of dams specially tarbela dam. If the same is expected for mangla as well then desilting of mangla along with tarbela shid be done.

Similarly chiniot dam and small lakes or reservoirs shud be planned to replenish the aquifers. These lakes can be fed by water treatment plants and thus wud help make gud use of effluent and sewerage.

 

[Blacklight]

These lakes can be fed by water treatment plants and thus wud help make gud use of effluent and sewerage.

Agree on all, except the above. Given how we fail to maintain public assets, best to use this water for agriculture.

 

[AsifIjaz]

Agree on all, except the above. Given how we fail to maintain public assets, best to use this water for agriculture.

Well it's being practised globally.. treated water is being used for both the purpose..
Replenishing the aquifers and for cultivation..
Keeping in mind ground realities government needs to establish it and give it to private service for maintenance and running
Or
Have it built via BOT basis with grants or subsidy.
It's imperative tht we take this route.. there is just not enough water now.

 

[Maarkhoor]

Agree on all, except the above. Given how we fail to maintain public assets, best to use this water for agriculture.

The only solution left is Kalabagh Dam, otherwise no need to buy jet or tanks India will win by just stopping water.
Dam more dams.....no other solutions.

 

[Blacklight]

Well it's being practised globally.. treated water is being used for both the purpose..
Replenishing the aquifers and for cultivation..
Keeping in mind ground realities government needs to establish it and give it to private service for maintenance and running
Or
Have it built via BOT basis with grants or subsidy.
It's imperative tht we take this route.. there is just not enough water now.

Brother, in theory you are correct, but you missed my point:

Given how we fail to maintain public assets,

 

[Blacklight]

The only solution left is Kalabagh Dam, otherwise no need to buy jet or tanks India will win by just stopping water.
Dam more dams.....no other solutions.

Someone needs to grow a spine, and build Dams & reservoirs ASAP, without being held hostage to petty ba$tard politicians.

Those who oppose such projects of national security, should be labelled traitors and dealt with as such.

 

[ziaulislam]

Someone needs to grow a spine, and build Dams & reservoirs ASAP, without being held hostage to petty ba$tard politicians.

Those who oppose such projects of national security, should be labelled traitors and dealt with as such.

People dont want dams they want metros
California has total of 40maf water for agriculture 1/3 of this is deslination while its peoductivity is 5x of pakistan

For reference we have 140maf of water availble
Pakistani people want free money
They want govt to print them free money

 

[Blacklight]

People dont want dams they want metros

Myopic vision, and khota biryani / qeema wali naan can do wonders eh?

California has total of 40maf water for agriculture 1/3 of this is deslination while its peoductivity is 5x of pakistan

For reference we have 140maf of water availble

Despite having a huge coast line, we are not exploring solar desalination.
Water desalination is a very energy intensive process, solar would prove to be very cost effective, and at the same time provide electricity as well.

Nonetheless, we have a fundamental issue of water wastage. Water conservation, is non-existent. We dont even have a basic concept of water meters!

Pakistani people want free money
They want govt to print them free money

They should all move to the US of A

 

[AsifIjaz]

Brother, in theory you are correct, but you missed my point:

Bhai, trust me i didn't. Maybe I was not clear in my writing. I was merely pointing to the fact that incompetence in the management of the public sector or essential assets can not be a justification for these vital functions. That's precisely why I mentioned two possible solutions as well.
but glad we are at the same frequency.

People dont want dams they want metros
California has total of 40maf water for agriculture 1/3 of this is deslination while its peoductivity is 5x of pakistan

For reference we have 140maf of water availble
Pakistani people want free money
They want govt to print them free money

I wrote and delete something similar in my post above. Lemme say that now. I honestly believe freshwater for Karachi is a crime. Upcoming k4 is a disaster for agriculture. The same water can be used for irrigation.
We need to develop a few reverse osmosis plants for Karachi and supply water through them rather than use fresh water. Karachi sewage then can be used for agriculture in Karachi suburbs or for greenery around M11 etc.
Point is, we should save fresh water on a war footing.