Hello...
Yeah tooth all fine now. Replies are sporadic as time is currently at a premium.
As a preliminary point, I must say that what the government is doing is that it exploits the inherent social stability of Indian society. This stability may be due to various reasons, a certain sense of docility may be one of them. Be as it may, the fact that there was so little opposition to something as problematic as demonetization is being shown as indicative of its success. The fact is, there is not one other country in the world where there is relative peace and stability despite of such a venal ruling class, total absence of rule of law and a pervasive mindset where might is right. So lack of violent opposition in itself offers little insight.
By the motive for demonetization you mean clandestine bank re-capitalization, then it hasn't served that purpose. The people who deposited cash promptly withdrew all of it as soon as they could. Maybe the push to get hold of all the gold was also aimed towards re-capitalization, but even that has flopped miserably.
About the windfall gain to banks and e-payment portals, even that didn't end up happening. Paytm (the most popular of the payment systems in use) usage returned back to its pre-demonetization levels. So all the grand plans are still-born.
However, let me present an alternative explanation. My gut feeling is that the government did not hatch these plans as part of some neo-liberal initiative. They are partly political stunts (playing to the galleries) and partly misinformed understanding of economics.
It is an open secret that the ex-RBI Governor and the PMO were at loggerheads over macro-economic policy. Raghuram Rajan understood the limits of monetary policy, and restricted its use to target inflation only. The government, OTOH, has a monetary/fiscal policy that is the same - soak up as much money from the public as possible and make it available for politically motivated populism.
This process has started as soon as the government came to power - it had already made it extremely unattractive to invest in anything apart from either government securities or equity-linked instruments. I have little idea as to what they have achieved so far by doing so.
As for the aspect of vested interest, I think what is at play is bad advice coming from dubious quarters, rather than an actual conspiracy. To the type of ignoramuses running financial policy in India today, the lessons from 2008 is that we need more banking. Barely had the dust from the GFC settled down, when a Banking Reform Committee made some stunning recommendations. These included, inter alia, that we open our system to OTC derivatives and the sort of digitization dreams being implemented. So these delusions have been in the making for quite a while. Of course, due to a profound lack of understanding about what it takes to digitize an economy, these will remain dreams.
About the general economic malaise that has been inflicted on the economy; well, I don't think it is the government's doing. The global trends that are shaping the economic landscape are out of their control. Disruptive technology has made manufacturing a game of progressively diminishing returns as far as job growth is concerned. Where the government is at fault is for the fact that they have no idea about these processes. The fact that China gained from manufacturing is as relevant an economic lesson today as is the fact that Denmark gained from dairy cows. We have missed that bus and if that is our game plan for job growth, then we are in some deep s**t.
Basically, ours is a situation analogous to US foreign policy. The purported aims are not neo-liberalism or neo-conservativism. It just so happens that the people who are framing policies are informed by these ideas.
As for post-truth, I suspect we have always lived in a post-truth world. There is nothing about misinformation and propaganda that Joseph Goebbels did not know. I suspect what is different now is that the traditional safeguards have caved in. What we are doing right now is a classic example. We are both being forced to interact with morons who have a level-playing field due to the anonymous nature of this platform. I think the moron I just ignored in my previous post compared Churchill to Hitler. His view is as precious as ours. That is the power of social media. So what it has done is that the kind of drivel that was part of work-floor or drinking hole conversation has now become mainstream. The filter that people used to distinguish between that and news received from genuine outlets has disappeared.
So the allegation that media is biased and motivated has become irrelevant. It does not matter anymore, because the mantle of disseminating propaganda has passed on to the crowd.
Valued friend,
I had to sleep on my reply... didn't want to dishonour your thoughtful post.
I must admit that I do like the cohesiveness, simplicity and 'flow' in your thoughts. Made me enjoy reading it.
As you know I neither like debating nor arguing... and when the dialouge is intelligent, well... it does bring joy in discourse. My operating principle is always beginning with 'you are right, I am right', and if there is quality then dialouge can progress, leaving understanding as fruits of mature discourse. Then there is 'flow'.
Regarding, your post... I can not but agree with the thrust of it. So, sorry, no throwing back at ya!
However, I do maintain that midnight strike on indians was not the brain child of the current government... that it was executed with such haste only exposed the inherit contradictions of the system. Which when analysed and managed correctly will only benefit indians in the long run.
So, this self inflicted adversity did bring a blessing in disguise. I have no doubt that you would figure that one out.
RBI has in fact served indian state, thus the people, rather well in the past couple of decades. It did produce some outstanding thinking-bankers... your man in BIS, as case in point.
You did correctly pointed out about the 'desperate' need of showing off decisiveness. However, the rootcase evaded itself in your composition. I tend to believe it had to with time issue. Otherwise, you could have provided your views on the rootcause as well. Please, do.
If you look closely the shinny story about the 1+ bln market and youth dividend etc., bestowed daily on your population and this demonetisation strike... indeed, suffering is self inflicted.
Apart from showing resoluteness, I do believe that your country is being prepared to be fully opened up for MNCs... be it GMO on large scale farming or pharama.... And not every thing is sinister, as you tried to underline... That being said, by creating the operating conditions for local and international big business, I do see increase in suffering.
Is it possible that systematic promotion of indianness* and inspiring the masses to regain mythical glories can perhaps serve a broader purpose?
Nationalism like uncontrolled religious zeal is a caner for humanity.
Nationalism and Humanism are polar opposite, of course. While you and some others here on PDF do try to promote Humanism..which I have supported all along, are in minority...and shrinking.
If we look at the global picture, we can see this intertwinning of media-big business-politics.... is it any different in your lovely country?
The indian establishment of yesteryears has been replaced by a new corp of ambitious clutch...leaning very havily towards the DC led West. Nothing wrong with it. But it does bring with it new challenges, notwithstanding the brovados of indian independence. Not even China and Russia would directly confront the US.. not yet anyway. Hyper power afterall.
Now how does it relate to matter at hand?
Why don't you crack the utterly simple Code and tell me what is the broader Context, governing the emerging dynamics.
Somehow, I do have this growing feeling that your good country will go through the cycle of identity rollercoaster. At the same time I also sense that the inhert need for peace might pull the plug to any nastiness that such enterprises bring with them as byproducts. Call it self interest or Humanism...opposing forces to the emerging power equations in india.
It is in the nature of political beast to sell snake oil... how could it be any different in your lands. Global economy and financial architecture is going through a transformation.. a downwards trend. Apart from a controlled dismantenling, I do fear a massive repeat of 2007-2008.
Many will be going belly up.... bad omens...since, this breeds the grounds for major conflicts...especially when nationlistic populism is already anchored.
It is a separate dialouge to dig deepr into why/how your country missed the manufacturing train and how its going to be almost impossible to attain it...barring some labour intensive industries... global supply chain is very entrenched. We shall keep hearing 'great' news of someone opening bln plus plants... but when calculated from population to employment ratios... you know what I mean.
Looking forward to have your critique. You take care!
SPF
PS. English is not my first language, so there will be mistakes in spellings and grammar. Do, ignore, please.
Also, every now and then indulging in good hearted, respectful humour is a good thing. Mostly, I don't. My posting here in this section are but resverse mirroring of the obvious... I am sure people like you understand that actually I mean well to my fellow humans, be it indians!
(*I wanted to say hinduness, but, that might be percieved as intolerance on my part)