dray
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Ok I am talking about center. WB may have some other equations.
A few things are going in favour of BJP:
1. When the Sarda and other ponzi schemes were exposed, Mamta took 5 ministers' names including her own and questioned the critics if they are thieves, now 2 of them have been arrested, 1 is sitting in a hospital to avoid imminent arrest, and last 2 are waiting for their turns, this is a huge blow to her 'clean' image.
2. Bengal politics didn't used to work on communal lines, but she has polarized the electorate in her quest to secure muslim votebank with mindless crude appeasement politics, this will help BJP.
3. Burdwan incident further consolidated BJP's position.
4. Infighting within tmc is another challenge.
5. Those goons who used to 'do the vote' for cpm have now doing it for tmc by terrorizing people, they are helping tmc to some extent by rigging the elections, but people are increasingly viewing tmc like the way they see cpm, so they are moving to BJP even in muslim majority areas.
Plus points for tmc are:
1. They have done some work in rural Bengal that cpm didn't do, so they have some support base there, remember, elections results in Bengal is decided by rural Bengal.
2. They have got a major chunk of the significant muslim votes. That vote along with 15-20% of other votes can give them a clear majority.
3. Opposition votes are fragmented, cpm will still take away some votes, congress will take away some votes, now bjp will take away some votes, others will have their own share, tmc had a near clean sweep with some 38% votes, cpm used to win elections because of this only.
4. BJP has its own serious problems, weak leadership, weak organizational strength, weak grass root level presence in every village/panchayat/para level, rural Bengal won't vote for them if people are not convinced that bjp can actually save them on the ground from pre & post election violence by the rulling party, a sad but hard reality of Bengal politics.
I have heard that bjp might help mim to fight election in Bengal to fracture muslim votebank, is it true @SarthakGanguly ?