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Local Mobile Phone Production Surpasses Imports

This was so easy to do tbh, just 1 or 2 years, but the previous gov didn't do shit to do this easy a** job instead of exports we were importing

(although I am not satisfied we want to go up the value chain and atleast be capable of producing 80% of tablets, Laptops, phones etc ourselves, this isn't even close to that but a very good first step and with focus we can certainly achieve that target in max 10 years)
Its more easier to keep rupee artifically high and when economy crashes leave the new govt to run around the world and beg for money

For example; dollar has sky rocketted in international market and smart thing would have been to keep rupee artifically higher..now PTI is surely going to loose 2023 election
 
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It should be consistently between 160-165 for couple more years anything less or more is bad
It should reflect the ground realities no more intervention by the government to artificially inflate it

It should rise and fall depending on our financial situation not our political one
 
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Spin doctor spotted 😜

It should be consistently between 160-165 for couple more years anything less or more is bad

This the rate market is expecting

Honestly at one point or another relevant ministries have mentioned all of these issues for eg stopping the expansion of cities, master plan

But of course it remains to be seen what are they working on and we'll only see the results after some years
No it should fluctates as per rupee intrinsic strength and dollar international prices
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For example; dollar has sky rocketted in international market and smart thing would have been to keep rupee artifically higher..now PTI is surely going to loose 2023 election
With massive fuckups mariam did PTI can easily win 2023 elections
OSP voting and evm voting will turn things around and if PTI acts smart it can do strategic spending in the last year to gain a boost in key districts

Also I dont see any major political crisis brewing in Pakistan in the last year given how incompetent opposition is in managing things
 
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Currency being low is a big factor why our exports are so competitive right now

That doesn't make sense, really. Because most of our competition is with India or Bangladesh right? 1 USD is equal to R. 74 INR and Taka 85 Bangla; relatively PKR at 90 should be sufficient for our exports to be competitive.

Basically, things are not as simple as they are made to appear. For most of our exports, we rely on imported machinery, raw material and equipment. When we take the compound effect of a weak currency and add multiple compounding items on top of all that, our exports automatically become unattractive because of the more expensive base. Let me give you an example, we import 70%-75% of Oil for various things such as power generation, transport, shipping etc., so when we transport that Oil for consumption using the same imported Oil which we are already buying against a very weak currency then there is a compound effect, we then use the same Oil/raw material to make/grow etc., the items that we would eventually export and all that compound effect comes to bite us hard.

What we needed to do, to raise our exports, as already explained above and in addition to that was to strengthen the PKR and subsidize exports through various long term incentives such as Free Land, Rebates, Waiver/deferment of Taxes and Duties, no questions-asked investment policies etc.
 
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Its more easier to keep rupee artifically high and when economy crashes leave the new govt to run around the world and beg for money
This is exactly how Lebanon fished up big time and now they dont have money to eat
Even Turkey did this by wasting 100 billion on artificially inflating the currency just to keep voters happy
The thing is everyone wants a free meal but someone has to pay for it sometime by doing that you enjoy few years of prosperity at the expense of years of misery for future generations
 
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That doesn't make sense, really. Because most of our competition is with India or Bangladesh right? 1 USD is equal to R. 74 INR and Taka 85 Bangla; relatively PKR at 90 should be sufficient for our exports to be competitive.

Basically, things are not as simple as they are made to appear. For most of our exports, we rely on imported machinery, raw material and equipment. When we take the compound effect of a weak currency and add multiple compounding items on top of all that, our exports automatically become unattractive because of the more expensive base. Let me give you an example, we import 70%-75% of Oil for various things such as power generation, transport, shipping etc., so when we transport that Oil for consumption using the same imported Oil which we are already buying against a very weak currency then there is a compound effect, we then use the same Oil/raw material to make/grow etc., the items that we would eventually export and all that compound effect comes to bite us hard.

What we needed to do, to raise our exports, as already explained above and in addition to that was to strengthen the PKR and subsidize exports through various long term incentives such as Free Land, Rebates, Waiver/deferment of Taxes and Duties, no questions-asked investment policies etc.

This is where the REER value of currency comes in as it takes into account the factors you mentioned the actual competitiveness , basically what our currency value should be in relation to other currencies to maintian competitiveness.

Our REER value is 99 in July, it went upwards to 103 I think in March but is now back. Anything above 100 favours imports and anything below hundred favours exports.

With the import led economy we had for decades, to reverse this criminal economic management of last decade and to substitute for the higher energy tariffs ( electricity only not petrol or transport as it is lower as compared to other countries) 95-96 should be the ideal range.
 
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relatively PKR at 90 should be sufficient for our exports to be competitive.
That is not how it works
You dont just put an arbitrary number and demand the currency stay at that level you have factor in the situation your country is in and form policies accordingly
This is exactly what Izhaq Dar did which got us close to a situation like Lebanon
For most of our exports, we rely on imported machinery, raw material and equipment.
Raw materials we rely on in many occasions are local
Also add in the lower labour cost and we have an interesting situation where we increase our textile exports despite a global pandemic
Some countries actually use devaluation as a weapon to destroy the competition
Let me give you an example, we import 70%-75% of Oil for various things such as power generation,
And the answer to that is diversifying our energy sources not subsidizing consumption which we would be forced to pay for at a higher price down the line
What we needed to do, to raise our exports,
Our exports have increased already at a healthy pace what we need to do now is to not mess around with our currency for political reason
In my opinion to further increase exports we should subsidize our industries BUT we should stay away from artificially inflating our currency
 
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This is exactly how Lebanon fished up big time and now they dont have money to eat
Even Turkey did this by wasting 100 billion on artificially inflating the currency just to keep voters happy
The thing is everyone wants a free meal but someone has to pay for it sometime by doing that you enjoy few years of prosperity at the expense of years of misery for future generations
But people still want hirari back and are cursing arabs for not bailing them out for the 20th time

Some nations dont have shame..and sorry to say pakistanis are acting same
That is not how it works
You dont just put an arbitrary number and demand the currency stay at that level you have factor in the situation your country is in and form policies accordingly
This is exactly what Izhaq Dar did which got us close to a situation like Lebanon

Raw materials we rely on in many occasions are local
Also add in the lower labour cost and we have an interesting situation where we increase our textile exports despite a global pandemic
Some countries actually use devaluation as a weapon to destroy the competition

And the answer to that is diversifying our energy sources not subsidizing consumption which we would be forced to pay for at a higher price down the line

Our exports have increased already at a healthy pace what we need to do now is to not mess around with our currency for political reason
In my opinion to further increase exports we should subsidize our industries BUT we should stay away from artificially inflating our currency
Subsidy is double edge sword it invites ineffiency
 
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