Large-scale manufacturing declines by 3.5pc in December

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Large-scale manufacturing declines by 3.5pc in December​

Tahir Sherani
February 16, 2023

Large-scale manufacturing (LSM) declined for the fourth consecutive month in December, shrinking 3.51 per cent year-on-year (YoY), data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) showed on Wednesday.

Big industry output has largely been declining since the start of the current fiscal year, with only a paltry rise recorded in August. There was a negative growth of 5.49pc in November, 7.7pc in October and 2.27pc in September on a year-on-year basis.

The YoY decline in December was led by the textile sector, which shrank 21.24pc, followed by automobiles (36.22pc), pharmaceuticals (12.72pc), iron and steel products (8.12pc) and chemicals (3.82pc).

On the other hand, the furniture sector posted a growth of 182.35pc, wearing apparel (25.5pc) and food (11.05pc).

However, on a month-on-month basis, LSM increased by 12.38pc.

PBS data showed that in the first half of the current fiscal year, LSM declined by 3.68pc compared to July-December 2021. The main contributors were textile (down 13.06pc), pharmaceuticals (21.56pc), non-metallic mineral products (11.72pc), coke and petroleum products (11.15pc), food (2.39pc) and chemicals (1.13pc).

“The production in July-December 2022-23 as compared to July-December 2021-22 has increased in wearing apparel, leather products, furniture and other manufacturing (football) while it decreased in food, tobacco, textile, coke and petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, rubber products, non-metallic mineral products, fabricated metal, electrical equipment, machinery and equipment, automobiles and other transport equipment,” the PBS noted.

The decline in large-scale manufacturing comes amid the government’s ban on all but essential food and medicine imports until a lifeline bailout is agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Businessmen say the import ban, which has been imposed as the country’s foreign exchange reserves decline to a critically low level, will leave millions jobless.

Alongside a shortage of raw materials, soaring inflation, rising fuel costs and a plummeting rupee have battered manufacturing industries.

Industries such as steel, textiles and pharmaceuticals are barely functioning, forcing thousands of factories to close and deepening unemployment.

Large-scale manufacturing declines by 3.5pc in December

Production in textile, automobile and pharmaceutical sectors shrink; LSM dips by 3.68pc in first half of FY23.

www.dawn.com

 

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Weekly inflation jumps to 38.4pc​

Inflationary trend driven by high food and fuel prices.

 

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Jul-Feb: Large Scale Manufacturing Industries output dips 5.56% YoY​

• Main contributors towards the overall decline of 5.56% are food, tobacco, textile, garments and petroleum products

BR
April 17, 2023

Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) output declined by 5.56% during the first eight months (July-February) of 2022-23 when compared with the same period of last year, according to the latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Monday.

The data released by the PBS with the base year 2015-16 showed that the main contributors towards the overall decline of are the following sectors: food (-0.35), tobacco (-0.50), textile (-2.82) garments (3.21), petroleum products (-0.64), cement (-0.77), pharmaceuticals (-1.25) and automobiles (-1.68).

The LSMI Quantum Index Number (QIM) showed that LSMI output decreased by 11.59% in February 2023 when compared with February 2022 and by 0.5% when compared with January 2023.

The LSMI QIM estimate for July- February 2022-23 was 116.64, while for February 2023 it was 126.13.

LSMI provisional quantum indices for January 2023 with the base year 2015-16 have been developed on the basis of the latest data supplied by source agencies - OCAC, Ministry of Industries and Production, Ministry of Commerce and Provincial Bureau of Statistics.

Jul-Jan LSMI output falls 4.40pc YoY

Sectors showing growth during July-February include wearing apparel (35.53%), leather products (3.85%), furniture (58.45%) and other manufacturing (football) (35.81%).

However, production decreased in sectors including food, tobacco, textile, coke & petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, non-metallic mineral products, machinery and equipment, automobiles and other transport equipment.

 

[Menace2Society]

They are purposefully destroying the economy so its tougher for IK when he takes over. Selfish b**tards these Sharifs and Zardaris.

 

[ghazi52]

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LSM horror run deepens​

BR

Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) data comes with a considerable lag and has of late only stamped the worst fears. The LSM index as tracked by the PBS went down 11.59 percent year-on-year in February 2023. On a cumulative basis, for 8MFY23 – LSM is down 5.55 percent.

Barring the peak Covid period in 2020, this is the steepest fall in at least 14 years – on both counts. February 2023 marked the eighth month running, where LSM recorded negative growth. This has probably never happened before – like most other things in the country these days.

For February 2023, of the 22 LSM categories containing 123 items, only a solitary category of beverages registered positive year-on-year growth. Soft drinks and mineral waters may struggle to maintain the growth trajectory beyond February 2023 – as the mini budget taxation measures came into effect leading to significant retail price increase in subsequent months.

On a cumulative basis, the growth story is restricted to only four sectors, three of which are new entries in the rebased LSM – namely wearing apparel (readymade garments), footballs and furniture – fourth being leather.

The PBS uses the export quantities in these cases as LSM readings, and readymade garments have a considerably high weight of 6 percent. The growth has come down to 35 percent – gradually on a downward slope in the last six months, March export numbers are out – and it has tapered down further – with year-on-year growth confined to 11 percent, down from an average of 45 percent between July-Jan.

Furniture exports with just 0.5 percent weight in the LSM basket make the second largest contribution to overall LSM growth. For context, Pakistan’ average monthly furniture export barely exceeds million dollars.

The pace of furniture export growth has also tamed in the last two months – with March numbers down year-on-year basis. Footballs with an even lower share have so far stayed steady – and may soon be only the second category outside of wearing apparel – with positive growth.

Everything else tells a sorry tale – from air conditioners to electric fans, from motor cars to motor pumps, from steel rolls to cement, from fertilizer to wheat, from cigarettes to HSD, and from cotton cloth to tea. Each sector has its separate tale but is a fair reflection of the dire straits Pakistan finds itself in. March imports at under $4 billion tell more of the same is in order for rest of the fiscal year – as paucity of dollars will keep the supply line disturbed.

Eroding purchasing power at home is there to make sure LSM for FY23 may well give Pakistan’s poorest reading in decades. To think that FY22 ended with a 12 percent LSM growth. Surely, this has been a year to forget on all counts.

 

[ghazi52]

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Economic distress: Pakistan’s large-scale manufacturing down 25% YoY in March​

• Main contributors towards overall decline are food, tobacco, textile, petroleum products, cement, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles

BR

The output of Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) witnessed a decline of 24.99% year-on-year in March 2023, the largest drop since May 2020 (during the pandemic), data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) showed on Monday.

According to the provisional Quantum Index numbers (QIM), the LSMI output declined by 9.09% in March 2023 when compared with February 2023.

Meanwhile, during the first nine months (July-March) of 2022-23, the LSMI output decreased by 8.11% when compared with the same period of last year, says PBS.

The LSMI Quantum Index Number (QIM) was estimated for July-March, 2022-23 at 116.57, while it was estimated for March 2023 at 115.31.

The provisional quantum indices of Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) for March 2023 with base year 2015-16 have been developed on the basis of latest data supplied by the source agencies, i.e., OCAC, Ministry of Industries and Production, Ministry of Commerce and Provincial Bureau of Statistics (BoS).

The LSM data released by the PBS with base year 2015-16 showed that the main contributors towards overall decline of -8.11% are, food (-1.62), tobacco (-0.57), textile (-3.16) garments (2.94), petroleum products (-0.68), cement (-0.85), pharmaceuticals (-1.30), and automobiles (-1.85).

Meanwhile, production in July-March 2022-23 as compared to July-March 2021-22 has increased in wearing apparel, furniture and other manufacturing (football) while it decreased in food, tobacco, textile, coke & petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, non-metallic mineral products, machinery and equipment, automobiles and other transport equipment.

The poor performance in the industrial sector reflects the overall economic slowdown across various sectors in the ongoing fiscal year. The inability of the industries to secure Letters of Credit in the wake of government’s recent measures due to dollar shortage has dented production.

The government remains engaged in trying to convince the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revive the stalled Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme, which if approved by its board would release a funding tranche of over $1 billion.

However, the programme has been stalled at the ninth review since November last year.

The IMF has already revised downward the GDP growth rate projection for Pakistan from 2% to 0.5% for the current fiscal year, ie, 2023.

Provisional figures for this fiscal year’s performance are scheduled to be released on June 8, a day before the federal budget announcement.

 

[maithil]

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Economic distress: Pakistan’s large-scale manufacturing down 25% YoY in March​

• Main contributors towards overall decline are food, tobacco, textile, petroleum products, cement, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles

BR

The output of Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) witnessed a decline of 24.99% year-on-year in March 2023, the largest drop since May 2020 (during the pandemic), data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) showed on Monday.

According to the provisional Quantum Index numbers (QIM), the LSMI output declined by 9.09% in March 2023 when compared with February 2023.

Meanwhile, during the first nine months (July-March) of 2022-23, the LSMI output decreased by 8.11% when compared with the same period of last year, says PBS.

The LSMI Quantum Index Number (QIM) was estimated for July-March, 2022-23 at 116.57, while it was estimated for March 2023 at 115.31.

The provisional quantum indices of Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (LSMI) for March 2023 with base year 2015-16 have been developed on the basis of latest data supplied by the source agencies, i.e., OCAC, Ministry of Industries and Production, Ministry of Commerce and Provincial Bureau of Statistics (BoS).

The LSM data released by the PBS with base year 2015-16 showed that the main contributors towards overall decline of -8.11% are, food (-1.62), tobacco (-0.57), textile (-3.16) garments (2.94), petroleum products (-0.68), cement (-0.85), pharmaceuticals (-1.30), and automobiles (-1.85).

Meanwhile, production in July-March 2022-23 as compared to July-March 2021-22 has increased in wearing apparel, furniture and other manufacturing (football) while it decreased in food, tobacco, textile, coke & petroleum products, pharmaceuticals, chemicals, non-metallic mineral products, machinery and equipment, automobiles and other transport equipment.

The poor performance in the industrial sector reflects the overall economic slowdown across various sectors in the ongoing fiscal year. The inability of the industries to secure Letters of Credit in the wake of government’s recent measures due to dollar shortage has dented production.

The government remains engaged in trying to convince the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to revive the stalled Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programme, which if approved by its board would release a funding tranche of over $1 billion.

However, the programme has been stalled at the ninth review since November last year.

The IMF has already revised downward the GDP growth rate projection for Pakistan from 2% to 0.5% for the current fiscal year, ie, 2023.

Provisional figures for this fiscal year’s performance are scheduled to be released on June 8, a day before the federal budget announcement.

Deindustrialization

 

[ghazi52]

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LSM output drops 25% due to import restrictions​

Pace of contraction doubles as implications of import curbs unfold

Shahbaz Rana
May 16, 2023

The government’s policy to trade off a sovereign default with a steep curb on imports, coupled with the high cost of doing business, has caused a contraction of 25% in the output of major industries – a trend that is likely to worsen in the absence of a viable economic plan.

Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported on Monday that output from Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) industries dipped 25% in March over a year ago. The pace of contraction doubled two months ago as the severe implications of import curbs have now unfolded.

There is a shortage of imported raw material and intermediary goods. Interest rates are up to a historically high level of 21% and inflation is at a six-decade high standing at 36.4%. With heightened political uncertainty, there is no clarity about the economic outlook of the country.

All these factors have contributed to a massive contraction in the output of the large industrial sector – the country’s second major employer after agriculture and the single largest revenue generating sector.

PBS reported the LSM output figures days before a scheduled meeting of the National Accounts Committee (NAC). The NAC will consider approval of the overall economic growth rate along with sectoral growth figures for the outgoing fiscal year and give its stamp of endorsement to the revised GDP growth figures of the previous fiscal year.

The constant negative growth witnessed in the LSM sector during the current fiscal year indicates that there will also be negative growth in the industrial sector. The agriculture sector is also projected to contract during the current fiscal year due to the devastation caused by the floods in July-August last year.

International financial institutions and the Ministry of Finance have projected an economic growth rate of less than 1%. But Dr Hafiz A Pasha – a renowned economist – has projected negative over 2% GDP growth rate in this fiscal year.

The LSM sector contributes nearly one-tenth to total national output, however, a constant decline in the share and growth of LSM may cause a lot of problems for the government already struggling to create new jobs.

The government is allowing imports now less than the monthly inflows on account of exports and remittances. Imports fell below $3 billion last month, as the government is now sucking dollars from the market to pay off its debts.

Chances for the revival of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme have also diminished. As a result, the government does not seem to be in the mood to open trade in the next fiscal year.

Compared to last month’s projection of a current account deficit of $9.2 billion for the next fiscal year, the Ministry of Finance is now contemplating setting the deficit target between $6-$7 billion.

Overall, LSM output shrank 8.1% in the July-March period of this fiscal year, the PBS reported. It also contracted over 9% on a month-on-month basis.

design: Ibrahim Yahya

The big industries faced broad-based contraction, with 18 of the 22 sectors witnessing negative output during the first nine months (July-March) compared to a year ago. Only clothing, leather products, furniture, and other manufacturing sectors saw an increase in production during the first nine months.

The main contributors towards the overall negative growth of 8.1% include the food sector that shrank nearly 9% and the tobacco industry whose output decreased by one-fourth. Similarly, the textile sector’s output also dropped by over 16%.

The production of petroleum products also dropped by one-tenth during the first nine months of the fiscal year.

The two sectors hit hardest by the ban on imports were pharmaceuticals and automobiles, both of which witnessed significant contraction during the first nine months of the current fiscal year. The pharmaceutical sector, also impacted by currency devaluation, saw a 23% dip in output while the production of automobiles was negative by 43% in nine months.

The output of the chemicals sector, non-metallic mineral products, machinery and equipment and transport equipment also shrank during the current fiscal year.

Private sector credit has also gone down after an increase in interest rates. The government is projecting a 21% inflation rate for the next fiscal year, which suggests that interest rates may remain high for some time.

 

[Crimson Blue]

May 2023 Update:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661304186204737537

 

[ghazi52]

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Rupee ends losing streak in inter-bank, but falls to 308-310 in open market​

• Currency registers a gain of Re0.02 in inter-bank market

Recorder Report
May 24, 2023

 

[maithil]

May 2023 Update:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1661304186204737537

Sab negative hai.. then how is GDP growth positive ? Yeh kya golmal hai..

 

[ghazi52]

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Engro Fertilizers announces 26-day shutdown of Port Qasim plant​

BR

 

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Big industry output shrinks 14pc in May​

Mubarak Zeb Khan
July 14, 2023

ISLAMABAD: Large-Scale Manufacturing (LSM) experienced a significant year-on-year contraction of 14.37 per cent in May, showed data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.

This marks the ninth consecutive month of decline for the country’s major industries during the outgoing FY23. The primary reason behind this decline can be attributed to a slowdown in the production of export-oriented textile and clothing sectors.

The consequences of this downturn in large industries are evident in the form of a significant number of job losses. The reduction in production capacity has led to an unfortunate situation where many individuals were rendered jobless.

These statistics highlight the challenges faced by Pakistan’s manufacturing sector and raise concerns about the overall economic performance of the country in the coming months.

The growth of LSM experienced a decline in May compared to the same month last year. The decline was 21pc in April, which is lower than the decline of 25pc in March, 11.6pc in February, and 7.9pc in January. In December 2022, there was a small decrease of 3.51pc.

In November 2022, there was a negative growth of 5.49pc, while in October 2022, it declined by 7.7pc. In September 2022, there was a decrease of 2.27pc compared to the same month last year. In August, there was a slight increase of 0.30pc after a decline of 1.67pc in July, which was the first month of the current fiscal year.

Between July and May, LSM also posted a negative growth of 9.87pc on a year-on-year basis.

In FY22, the LSM expanded by 11.7pc year-on-year. The production estimate for LSM industries was made using the new base year of 2015-16.

In May, the production of 16 sectors shrank and only four posted a marginal rise.

The textile sector’s production shrank 25.97pc over a year ago. Major negative growth originated from yarn (29.89pc), and cloth (17.49pc). Nominal growth was reported in the production of other products.

The production of garments posted a growth of 12.86pc during May. Its performance remained positive in the first 10 months except for February when it witnessed a negative growth.

In the food group, wheat and rice production dipped by 0.36pc and starch and its products by 2.15pc. However, the production of blended tea was up by 39.99pc, cooking oil by 24.45pc and vegetable ghee by 23.80pc, respectively.

Petroleum products posted a negative growth of 21.85pc in May, mainly because of a decline in the production of petrol and high-speed diesel while almost all other petroleum products recorded a slowdown except jet fuel, kerosene, jute and batching oil. The auto sector also saw a 68.60pc slump in May as the production of almost all kinds of vehicles went down.

The production of iron and steel dipped 5.83pc in May mainly because of a decline of 15.09pc in billets/ingots, whereas that of non-metallic mineral products saw a paltry growth of 0.53pc. However, chemical products posted a negative growth of 15.44pc in May from a year ago.

The production of pharmaceutical products dipped 38.61pc, rubber products 5.81pc and fertilisers 13.31pc in May from a year ago.

 

[ghazi52]

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Auto sales fail to rev up in July​

The Newspaper's
August 12, 2023


KARACHI: The auto sector has failed to shift gears in July, the first month of the fiscal year, with sales of cars, light commercial vehicles, vans and jeeps plummeting by more than half compared to a year ago.

Total sales were 5,092 units in July, down 57 per cent compared to 11,925 units sold in July 2022, according to data released by the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association. Sales fell 16pc month on month, as 6,034 units were sold in June.

The drop comes after the depressing fiscal year 2022-23, when the sector saw its sales decrease by 55pc.

The data for the current calendar year is more alarming, as sales shrank to less than one-third in the January-July period, plunging to 47,855 units from 155,216 a year ago.

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd sold 2,444 units in July, down 19pc from the previous month and 63pc from July last year.

Sales in the seven months from January to July reduced to less than a quarter, falling from 84,255 units a year ago to 19,436.

Sales of the Indus Motor Company, the assembler of Toyota vehicles, plunged 42pc in July from a year ago. The drop was 26pc when compared to sales in June. In January-July, the company’s sales fell 64pc to 14,165 units.

Honda Atlas Cars Ltd sales plummeted 81pc to 494 units in July compared to last year. However, the automaker somehow managed to boost its sales by 61pc when compared to 307 units sold in June. Its sales were down 72pc to 6,270 units in January-July.

The sales of Hyundai Nishat Motor inched up by 2pc to 569 units in July compared to June. The figure was also 183pc higher compared to 201 units sold in July last year. However, the company’s sales came down by 34pc in January-July to 5,602 units.

As for tractor sales, Al-Ghazi and Millat together sold 2,678 units in July, down 10pc compared to June but 19pc higher than July 2022 sales. In January-July, their tractor sales dropped 36pc to 22,107.

In bikes, Atlas Honda Limited Ltd saw a fall of 17pc in July sales of 62,012 units compared to the previous month. The annual decline in sales amounted to 23pc. The January-July sales fell 29pc to 544,650 units.

Truck sales grew 54pc to 165 units in July compared to June but were down 29pc from July last year. The seven-month sales stood 47pc lower at 1,172 units.

Bus sales fell to 30 units in July from 42 in June and 40 in July 2022. Some 364 buses were sold in January-July, down 24pc year on year.

Sunny Kumar, deputy head of research at Topline Securities, attributed the shrinking sales of cars, LCVs, jeeps and pickups to escalating prices, expensive auto finance and the low purchasing power of consumers.

He said bike sales were also hit by rising prices and consumers’ shrinking purchasing power.

 

[epebble]

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Auto sales fail to rev up in July​

The Newspaper's
August 12, 2023


KARACHI: The auto sector has failed to shift gears in July, the first month of the fiscal year, with sales of cars, light commercial vehicles, vans and jeeps plummeting by more than half compared to a year ago.

Total sales were 5,092 units in July, down 57 per cent compared to 11,925 units sold in July 2022, according to data released by the Pakistan Automotive Manufacturers Association. Sales fell 16pc month on month, as 6,034 units were sold in June.

The drop comes after the depressing fiscal year 2022-23, when the sector saw its sales decrease by 55pc.

The data for the current calendar year is more alarming, as sales shrank to less than one-third in the January-July period, plunging to 47,855 units from 155,216 a year ago.

Pak Suzuki Motor Company Ltd sold 2,444 units in July, down 19pc from the previous month and 63pc from July last year.

Sales in the seven months from January to July reduced to less than a quarter, falling from 84,255 units a year ago to 19,436.

Sales of the Indus Motor Company, the assembler of Toyota vehicles, plunged 42pc in July from a year ago. The drop was 26pc when compared to sales in June. In January-July, the company’s sales fell 64pc to 14,165 units.

Honda Atlas Cars Ltd sales plummeted 81pc to 494 units in July compared to last year. However, the automaker somehow managed to boost its sales by 61pc when compared to 307 units sold in June. Its sales were down 72pc to 6,270 units in January-July.

The sales of Hyundai Nishat Motor inched up by 2pc to 569 units in July compared to June. The figure was also 183pc higher compared to 201 units sold in July last year. However, the company’s sales came down by 34pc in January-July to 5,602 units.

As for tractor sales, Al-Ghazi and Millat together sold 2,678 units in July, down 10pc compared to June but 19pc higher than July 2022 sales. In January-July, their tractor sales dropped 36pc to 22,107.

In bikes, Atlas Honda Limited Ltd saw a fall of 17pc in July sales of 62,012 units compared to the previous month. The annual decline in sales amounted to 23pc. The January-July sales fell 29pc to 544,650 units.

Truck sales grew 54pc to 165 units in July compared to June but were down 29pc from July last year. The seven-month sales stood 47pc lower at 1,172 units.

Bus sales fell to 30 units in July from 42 in June and 40 in July 2022. Some 364 buses were sold in January-July, down 24pc year on year.

Sunny Kumar, deputy head of research at Topline Securities, attributed the shrinking sales of cars, LCVs, jeeps and pickups to escalating prices, expensive auto finance and the low purchasing power of consumers.

He said bike sales were also hit by rising prices and consumers’ shrinking purchasing power.

These statistics are ghastly. Auto industry seems to be spiraling into a depression. For comparison, Penske Motor Group, a dealership near Los Angeles, sells about 700 autos a day. If they become exclusive dealers for Pakistan's auto industry, they would sell all the production in a week and likely go out of business since there is nothing to sell for 3 more weeks.