excellent move and very well play. I expected this anyway, it seems, while gradually disposing, you are still selling when it carries certain weight. it has to be slow death to USD$ and respond from new administration 
Japan tops China as largest holder of US Treasury debt
- Thread starter 艹艹艹
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The ridiculous things is... Indian trying teaching Chinese how to runs a country...
huahahahahhaha
samsara
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China Dumps Treasuries: Foreign Central Banks Liquidate A Record $403 Billion In US Paper
ZeroHedge (2016-12-15)
One month ago, when we last looked at the Fed's update of Treasuries held in custody, we noted something troubling: the number had continued to drop sharply, declining by another $14 billion in one week, and pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.788 trillion, the lowest since 2012. One month later, we refresh this chart and find that in last week's update, there is finally some good news: foreign central banks finally bought some US paper held in the Fed's custody account, which following months of liquidation, rose over the past two weeks by $23 billion, the biggest two-week advance since November of 2016, pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.816 trillion, the highest since early October.
That was the good news, and we use the term loosely in as much as the custody account can be used as a proxy of foreign buying, which according to most rates watchers, it can.
The bad news came out with the release of latest monthly Treasury International Capital data for the month of October, which showed that the troubling trend presented one month ago, has accelerated to an unprecedented degree.
Recall that in mid-November, we reported that in the latest 12 months we observed a record $375 billion in Treasury selling by foreign central banks in the period August 2015-September 2016, something unprecedented in size.
Fast forward to today when in the latest monthly update for the month of October, we find that what until a month ago was "merely" a record $375 billion in offshore central bank sales in the LTM period ending September 30 has, one month later, risen to a new all time high $403 billion in Treasuries sold in the past 12 months.
As the chart below shows, there has never been such an aggressive selling of US Treasuries over a 12 month period in history.
The biggest seller, and keep in mind that TIC data is on a market-price adjusted basis, was once again was China, which in October "sold" a record $41 billion in US paper (the actual underlying number while different, as this particular series is adjusted for Mark to Market variations, will be similar), and a massive $125 billion in the last 4 months, bringing its total Treasury holdings to just $1.116 trillion, the lowest amount of US paper held by Beijing since 2010. In the process, China has now been overtaken by Japan for the top US creditor position in terms of total holdings with $1.132 trillion, for just the second time.
It wasn't just China: Belgium, which has long been rumored to be the venue where China's keeps its "secret" offshore Treasury holdings courtesy of Euroclear, also dumped its TSY holdings, and in October its stated holdings (which again have to be adjusted for MTM), tumbled from $143Bn to $117Bn, the lowest since the summer of 2015.
Furthermore, as we have shown previously, when superimposing China and Belgium's holdings together, these tend to align almost perfectly with the monthly change in Chinese reserves, which as reported before, have been declining sharply in recent months as a result of China's aggressive attempts to prevent a sharp devaluation of the Yuan. This can be seen on the chart below, and confirms that at least when it comes to China, the reason for the selling of Treasurys has been due to reserve liquidation.
As we pointed out one month ago, what has become increasingly obvious is that both foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, reserve managers, and virtually every other official institution in possession of US paper, is liquidating their holdings at a disturbing pace, something which in light of the recent surge in yields to over 2 year highs, appears to have been a prudent move.
In some cases, like China, this is to offset devaluation pressure; in others such as Saudi Arabia and other petroleum exporting nations, it is to provide the funds needed to offset the drop in the petrodollar, and to backstop the country's soaring budget deficit. In all cases, it may suggest concerns about a spike in future debt issuance by the US, especially now under the pro-fiscal stimulus Trump administration.
So who are they selling to? The answer, at least until August, was private demand, in other words just like in the stock market the retail investor is the final bagholder, so when it comes to US Treasuries, "private investors" both foreign and domestic are soaking up hundreds of billions in central bank holdings. As we said two months ago when we observed this great rotation in Treasuries out of official holders into private hands, "we wonder if they would [keep buying] knowing who is selling to them." Well, last month this changed, and after private investors had been happily snapping up bonds for 4 straight months, in September "other foreign investors" sold a whopping $31 billion, bringing the total outflow between public and private foreign holdings to $76.6 billion, the second highest number on record. In October, while foreign official entities sold another $45 billion, at least the pace of selling by private entities moderated somewhat, to "only" $18.3 billion.
Meanwhile, while just four months ago yields had tumbled to near all time lows, suddenly the picture is inverted, and long-yields are surging on concerns that not only will the ECB and the BOJ soon taper their purchases of the long end, but that Donald Trump is about to unleash a $1 trillion debt tsunami at a time when the Fed will not be available to monetize it, now that the Fed is again hiking rates.
While it is unclear under what conditions foreign buyers may come back - after all TSY rates have already jumped high enough to where US paper should be more than attractive to foreign official institutions - one thing is clear: as of this moment the selling strike not only continues but is accelerating, and should the foreign liquidation of Treasuries fail to slow, Yellen will soon have to plan how to not only abort the current rate experiment which continues to pressure yields higher around the globe, but to start thinking how to launch QE4 instead.
* * * * * * *
Of course there are many questions as well as speculations about the holding and selling of the US Treasuries.
Some of them:
If China is selling so much, who is the buyer then? And why the freaking dollar index kept moving so high if the Wall Street actors and business sectors are expecting inflation? Look at where the USA is now, $20 TRILLION in the hole and no way out.
What does a nation (or any other party) look for in an investment?
Most people would answer that nations will seek for return and security. There is no meaningful return in US treasury bonds with the record low in interest rates, and as US debt races for the sky, the security is diminishing. Would anybody here buy treasuries at the moment? So why would China. And who can be sure that China not just wants to gradually get out of the US when the current administration is dead set for a conflict with Russia while the new administration is aggressive against China. Any serious conflict will make repayment of US debt even more less possible - it is just wise for nations to balance the risks as the dynamics dictate so. And just remember that there is no more gold back-up on the dollar since the collapse of the Bretton Woods. At best it's just Petrodollar, being backed by the Saudi's oil along with the military might.
Don't think the average Joe knows that Barack Hussein Obama in his eight years increased the Federal debt by $30,000 per average Joe, i.e. $150,000 per family of five (all the while raking in record Federal tax collections). With nothing to show for it. And with rates and those debt service load set to increase. However, how much of the US population are aware, or even care, that US interest bearing debt is increasing annually by well of over ONE TRILLION. Then how many know or care or understand that China, Saudi and Belgium and some others are selling treasuries. The media, in particular the mainstream, simply cannot report it let alone put this matter into the limelight. It would make Obama look bad.
Some hinted that the REAL METRIC to track is the RATIO of China's holding to Total US Debt ISSUED over time.
All these nominal values do not tell the whole story. If you want to relativize the system you have to show how that China is keeping its US debt holdings nearly the same while Obama doubles the debt in eight years is the same as China divesting itself from the dollar. Something about Lenin, Capitalists and Rope.
Of course there's other strong opinion that significantly think that China's economy is performing badly, it has net capital outflow, its currency's exchange rate is weakening... that's why it has to sell its Treasuries to offset all these bad things.
Well, it much depends on one's perception and faith as well as one's own information aggregation and knowledge build-up to digest better the whole saga of the world's financial and economy in particular those of the USA and China, which realities do fit more common sense and actual situation of the world's economy... since, I gonna boldly say, we all live in the age of mirage... for sure time will be the unchallengeable ultimate testimony
We all live in interesting times
Some other interesting links to check:
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics
http://www.shadowstats.com/
See also the Alternate Gross Domestic Product Chart
The SGS-Alternate GDP reflects the inflation-adjusted, or real, year-to-year GDP change, adjusted for distortions in government inflation usage and methodological changes that have resulted in a built-in upside bias to official reporting.
Alternate GDP Data Series (Subscription required.) Last Updated: November 29th, 2016
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts
ZeroHedge (2016-12-15)
One month ago, when we last looked at the Fed's update of Treasuries held in custody, we noted something troubling: the number had continued to drop sharply, declining by another $14 billion in one week, and pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.788 trillion, the lowest since 2012. One month later, we refresh this chart and find that in last week's update, there is finally some good news: foreign central banks finally bought some US paper held in the Fed's custody account, which following months of liquidation, rose over the past two weeks by $23 billion, the biggest two-week advance since November of 2016, pushing the total amount of custodial paper to $2.816 trillion, the highest since early October.
That was the good news, and we use the term loosely in as much as the custody account can be used as a proxy of foreign buying, which according to most rates watchers, it can.
The bad news came out with the release of latest monthly Treasury International Capital data for the month of October, which showed that the troubling trend presented one month ago, has accelerated to an unprecedented degree.
Recall that in mid-November, we reported that in the latest 12 months we observed a record $375 billion in Treasury selling by foreign central banks in the period August 2015-September 2016, something unprecedented in size.
Fast forward to today when in the latest monthly update for the month of October, we find that what until a month ago was "merely" a record $375 billion in offshore central bank sales in the LTM period ending September 30 has, one month later, risen to a new all time high $403 billion in Treasuries sold in the past 12 months.
As the chart below shows, there has never been such an aggressive selling of US Treasuries over a 12 month period in history.
The biggest seller, and keep in mind that TIC data is on a market-price adjusted basis, was once again was China, which in October "sold" a record $41 billion in US paper (the actual underlying number while different, as this particular series is adjusted for Mark to Market variations, will be similar), and a massive $125 billion in the last 4 months, bringing its total Treasury holdings to just $1.116 trillion, the lowest amount of US paper held by Beijing since 2010. In the process, China has now been overtaken by Japan for the top US creditor position in terms of total holdings with $1.132 trillion, for just the second time.
It wasn't just China: Belgium, which has long been rumored to be the venue where China's keeps its "secret" offshore Treasury holdings courtesy of Euroclear, also dumped its TSY holdings, and in October its stated holdings (which again have to be adjusted for MTM), tumbled from $143Bn to $117Bn, the lowest since the summer of 2015.
Furthermore, as we have shown previously, when superimposing China and Belgium's holdings together, these tend to align almost perfectly with the monthly change in Chinese reserves, which as reported before, have been declining sharply in recent months as a result of China's aggressive attempts to prevent a sharp devaluation of the Yuan. This can be seen on the chart below, and confirms that at least when it comes to China, the reason for the selling of Treasurys has been due to reserve liquidation.
As we pointed out one month ago, what has become increasingly obvious is that both foreign central banks, sovereign wealth funds, reserve managers, and virtually every other official institution in possession of US paper, is liquidating their holdings at a disturbing pace, something which in light of the recent surge in yields to over 2 year highs, appears to have been a prudent move.
In some cases, like China, this is to offset devaluation pressure; in others such as Saudi Arabia and other petroleum exporting nations, it is to provide the funds needed to offset the drop in the petrodollar, and to backstop the country's soaring budget deficit. In all cases, it may suggest concerns about a spike in future debt issuance by the US, especially now under the pro-fiscal stimulus Trump administration.
So who are they selling to? The answer, at least until August, was private demand, in other words just like in the stock market the retail investor is the final bagholder, so when it comes to US Treasuries, "private investors" both foreign and domestic are soaking up hundreds of billions in central bank holdings. As we said two months ago when we observed this great rotation in Treasuries out of official holders into private hands, "we wonder if they would [keep buying] knowing who is selling to them." Well, last month this changed, and after private investors had been happily snapping up bonds for 4 straight months, in September "other foreign investors" sold a whopping $31 billion, bringing the total outflow between public and private foreign holdings to $76.6 billion, the second highest number on record. In October, while foreign official entities sold another $45 billion, at least the pace of selling by private entities moderated somewhat, to "only" $18.3 billion.
Meanwhile, while just four months ago yields had tumbled to near all time lows, suddenly the picture is inverted, and long-yields are surging on concerns that not only will the ECB and the BOJ soon taper their purchases of the long end, but that Donald Trump is about to unleash a $1 trillion debt tsunami at a time when the Fed will not be available to monetize it, now that the Fed is again hiking rates.
While it is unclear under what conditions foreign buyers may come back - after all TSY rates have already jumped high enough to where US paper should be more than attractive to foreign official institutions - one thing is clear: as of this moment the selling strike not only continues but is accelerating, and should the foreign liquidation of Treasuries fail to slow, Yellen will soon have to plan how to not only abort the current rate experiment which continues to pressure yields higher around the globe, but to start thinking how to launch QE4 instead.
* * * * * * *
Of course there are many questions as well as speculations about the holding and selling of the US Treasuries.
Some of them:
If China is selling so much, who is the buyer then? And why the freaking dollar index kept moving so high if the Wall Street actors and business sectors are expecting inflation? Look at where the USA is now, $20 TRILLION in the hole and no way out.
What does a nation (or any other party) look for in an investment?
Most people would answer that nations will seek for return and security. There is no meaningful return in US treasury bonds with the record low in interest rates, and as US debt races for the sky, the security is diminishing. Would anybody here buy treasuries at the moment? So why would China. And who can be sure that China not just wants to gradually get out of the US when the current administration is dead set for a conflict with Russia while the new administration is aggressive against China. Any serious conflict will make repayment of US debt even more less possible - it is just wise for nations to balance the risks as the dynamics dictate so. And just remember that there is no more gold back-up on the dollar since the collapse of the Bretton Woods. At best it's just Petrodollar, being backed by the Saudi's oil along with the military might.
Don't think the average Joe knows that Barack Hussein Obama in his eight years increased the Federal debt by $30,000 per average Joe, i.e. $150,000 per family of five (all the while raking in record Federal tax collections). With nothing to show for it. And with rates and those debt service load set to increase. However, how much of the US population are aware, or even care, that US interest bearing debt is increasing annually by well of over ONE TRILLION. Then how many know or care or understand that China, Saudi and Belgium and some others are selling treasuries. The media, in particular the mainstream, simply cannot report it let alone put this matter into the limelight. It would make Obama look bad.
Some hinted that the REAL METRIC to track is the RATIO of China's holding to Total US Debt ISSUED over time.
All these nominal values do not tell the whole story. If you want to relativize the system you have to show how that China is keeping its US debt holdings nearly the same while Obama doubles the debt in eight years is the same as China divesting itself from the dollar. Something about Lenin, Capitalists and Rope.
Of course there's other strong opinion that significantly think that China's economy is performing badly, it has net capital outflow, its currency's exchange rate is weakening... that's why it has to sell its Treasuries to offset all these bad things.
Well, it much depends on one's perception and faith as well as one's own information aggregation and knowledge build-up to digest better the whole saga of the world's financial and economy in particular those of the USA and China, which realities do fit more common sense and actual situation of the world's economy... since, I gonna boldly say, we all live in the age of mirage... for sure time will be the unchallengeable ultimate testimony
We all live in interesting timesSome other interesting links to check:
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
John Williams’ Shadow Government Statistics
http://www.shadowstats.com/
See also the Alternate Gross Domestic Product Chart
The SGS-Alternate GDP reflects the inflation-adjusted, or real, year-to-year GDP change, adjusted for distortions in government inflation usage and methodological changes that have resulted in a built-in upside bias to official reporting.
Alternate GDP Data Series (Subscription required.) Last Updated: November 29th, 2016
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/gross-domestic-product-charts
Desertfalcon
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Banks lead U.S. stock indexes higher; dollar jumps to highest value in 14 years
http://www.syracuse.com/us-news/ind...ollar_jumps_to_highest_value_in_14_years.html
Oh yeah, we're hurting alright.
Jlaw
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LOL
The funny thing, in Indonesia my Friend argue with me.
He said this is another Sign of China's Economic Slowdown, China's Economic is in BIG TROUBLE now.
Well i advise you , you should get new friend. Confucius say, it's best to make friends with people who are better than you.
ahojunk
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Foreign exchange reserves 'adequate': official
2016-12-23 08:18 | China Daily | Editor: Mo Hong'e
Reduction of U.S. Treasuries 'not strategic', says official; confidence in keeping yuan stable cited
China's foreign exchange reserves, which have dropped to about $3 trillion from a peak of nearly $4 trillion two years ago, are currently adequate, said a State Administration of Foreign Exchange official on Thursday.
China's reduction of U.S. Treasury securities holdings, meanwhile, is not a strategic move, since U.S. Treasury securities are the most important investment portfolio in the international market, said the official, who declined to be named.
The official said that "$3 trillion is, at least seen from the current situation, adequate".
In the future, China's scale of foreign exchange reserves might fluctuate around certain levels, given uncertainties caused by changing domestic and international economic situations, which is normal, she said. The administration will prudently use its expertise to manage the money, the official added.
China's holdings of U.S. debt fell to $1.12 trillion at the end of October, the lowest level in over six years, according to U.S. Treasury Department data.
China unloaded a total of $41.3 billion in Treasury securities in October, and Japan replaced it to become the largest holder of U.S. debt, triggering market speculation that China is dumping its dollar assets.
"The cutting is not strategic," the official said. "All countries take the U.S. Treasury securities as an important target for their foreign exchange reserve investment, and China is no exception."
"In investing in U.S. Treasuries, we take into consideration a package of factors, such as the interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the changes in yields, and based on that, we make dynamic adjustment to our holdings," she said. "Such an adjustment should not be interpreted as a strategic move."
Also on Thursday, Ma Jun, chief economist of China's central bank, said China is confident of keeping the yuan "basically stable at a reasonable equilibrium level", despite the fast depreciation of the currency against the dollar since November.
The yuan's central parity rate was 6.94 against the U.S. dollar on Thursday. It was about 6.77 in early November.
The depreciation is mainly caused by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, said Ma. The market has expected U.S. president-elect Donald Trump to launch infrastructure investment programs, which would lead to fiscal stimulus and rising inflation, ultimately causing more interest rate hikes and dollar strengthening.
However, Ma said such expectations may be "too optimistic".
"The dollar index may encounter correction, and once that happened, other currencies would rise against the dollar."
********
Forget the bullsh*t, it basically says, "don't sell your treasury bills yet. Wait till we have sold all of ours. You can then hold the empty can." LOL.
.
2016-12-23 08:18 | China Daily | Editor: Mo Hong'e
Reduction of U.S. Treasuries 'not strategic', says official; confidence in keeping yuan stable cited
China's foreign exchange reserves, which have dropped to about $3 trillion from a peak of nearly $4 trillion two years ago, are currently adequate, said a State Administration of Foreign Exchange official on Thursday.
China's reduction of U.S. Treasury securities holdings, meanwhile, is not a strategic move, since U.S. Treasury securities are the most important investment portfolio in the international market, said the official, who declined to be named.
The official said that "$3 trillion is, at least seen from the current situation, adequate".
In the future, China's scale of foreign exchange reserves might fluctuate around certain levels, given uncertainties caused by changing domestic and international economic situations, which is normal, she said. The administration will prudently use its expertise to manage the money, the official added.
China's holdings of U.S. debt fell to $1.12 trillion at the end of October, the lowest level in over six years, according to U.S. Treasury Department data.
China unloaded a total of $41.3 billion in Treasury securities in October, and Japan replaced it to become the largest holder of U.S. debt, triggering market speculation that China is dumping its dollar assets.
"The cutting is not strategic," the official said. "All countries take the U.S. Treasury securities as an important target for their foreign exchange reserve investment, and China is no exception."
"In investing in U.S. Treasuries, we take into consideration a package of factors, such as the interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the changes in yields, and based on that, we make dynamic adjustment to our holdings," she said. "Such an adjustment should not be interpreted as a strategic move."
Also on Thursday, Ma Jun, chief economist of China's central bank, said China is confident of keeping the yuan "basically stable at a reasonable equilibrium level", despite the fast depreciation of the currency against the dollar since November.
The yuan's central parity rate was 6.94 against the U.S. dollar on Thursday. It was about 6.77 in early November.
The depreciation is mainly caused by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar, said Ma. The market has expected U.S. president-elect Donald Trump to launch infrastructure investment programs, which would lead to fiscal stimulus and rising inflation, ultimately causing more interest rate hikes and dollar strengthening.
However, Ma said such expectations may be "too optimistic".
"The dollar index may encounter correction, and once that happened, other currencies would rise against the dollar."
********
Forget the bullsh*t, it basically says, "don't sell your treasury bills yet. Wait till we have sold all of ours. You can then hold the empty can." LOL.
.
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