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analysis: Irony and paradox Munir Attaullah
Our army is still, by far, the most powerful player in our political firmament. And it will remain so for the foreseeable future. No one who has enjoyed such overwhelming power and its perks, and for so long, simply slinks away and meekly begins to take orders from others
My original plan was to discuss this subject in three columns. But, having written two, and given a discursive style (for easy reading), I now think good grief! I will need a fourth. So I will leave the specific issue of terrorism and religious militancy in our midst for the final instalment tomorrow.
Keep in mind the following summary of the previous two columns: passivity as a social and political virtue, and a public good, is now passé; there is now a substantial (unbridgeable?) mismatch between a states capacity and ability to deliver (particularly in poor countries) and the real or stimulated expectations of citizens (no longer subjects).
These factors, and others such as the growth and compulsions of a black economy, have combined to greatly diminish respect for the rule of law generally; the contradictions and black holes in the theory and practice of democracy have produced widespread disenchantment with an allegedly least bad political system. Throw the cheap and easy access to deadly modern weaponry and technology into this cauldron of unrest and the result is that internal conflict resolution is now a deeply messy affair, with horrendous collateral damages.
I could have simply (and instinctively) added my voice to the current chorus of anguished screams from our educated class (Is this really happening to us?) and appeals to our army (For Gods sake, do something!). Instead, I have spent two columns putting our problem in a historical and global perspective, the better to first understand it. Of course such understanding does not guarantee finding adequate solutions. However, without diagnosing the kaleidoscopic nature of the problem it is more than likely we will come a cropper through wishful thinking or simplistic solutions.
For example, is a massive programme of socio-economic uplift (to be funded by others, of course!) for our tribal areas the answer? Help it surely will. But the arguments of my previous two columns suggest to me that such a programme could, in our case, be at best only a palliative, not a cure. After all, many a country with several times our GNP, and far better socio-economic indices, has not solved similar problems.
Another example: how about determined military action, either separately or in conjunction with socio-economic measures, as the solution? The Algerian experience (or the Indian experience in Kashmir) is not encouraging. But what distinguishes them from the case of Sri Lanka (that seems to be on the way to stamping out its insurgency)? Or Nepal, where an insurgency succeeded?
Also, if I am right, can any democratic government of ours survive the intense media and opposition outcry when the inevitable and massive collateral damage from a full fledged police or military operation mount up?
As an aside, while I am at it, I cannot resist here another calculated swipe at my least favourite subject of discussion: corruption. Those who believe this scourge to be our Achilles heel (and hence relevant in the present context) are no better than those who believe Sufi Mohammed when he says all will be well once sharia is introduced. Let us not be seduced by red herrings. India is not much different from us on this account. Yet its internal problems, in nature and magnitude, are nowhere near to those that we face.
One final and vitally important consideration: are there in our own case some additional uniquely different circumstances that compound manifold our difficulties? I believe that question must be answered in the affirmative. What is more, I think it goes to the heart of the matter. But we will come to this later.
So, is democracy or, as some would have it, more democracy the answer to our crisis of state?
Let us accept that for the foreseeable future at any rate, and for all its obvious flaws people the world over seem not to contemplate any alternative political system. And so, for better or worse, we are stuck with it too. But all that really means is that everyone is agreed only on the government for the people bit. As for of the people and by the people, it remains very much an open question as to what model ours will morph into in due course.
Will we have true parliamentary democracy? Or will we return to a variant of the Turkish or Musharraf model? Then there is the high possibility of us succumbing to a variant of the Iranian democratic model based on theological despotism. Given our collective schizophrenia, who can say with any confidence where we are headed. Hazarding a guess, I think there is a fair chance (though it will be a close run affair) that we will muddle along with our current democratic experiment
But, whatever the model, I can say three things with some confidence. First, our army will continue to have a pivotal role in state affairs (and that, paradoxically, may be the great blessing in disguise, the more you think about it). Second, the state (at least in the form of the writ of the federal government) will continue to get weaker, though we are highly unlikely to break up as a country, or become a Somalia, or end up being ruled by Taliban types. And, third, local mafias of all sorts (criminal, political, or a more deadly combination of the two) will thrive in a for profit patron-client relationship with the local populace by providing services while forcibly extracting a fee. Third world governments simply dont govern the way, let us say, the Canadian government governs.
For all the façade of democracy, let us face it: our army is still, by far, the most powerful player in our political firmament. And it will remain so for the foreseeable future. No one who has enjoyed such overwhelming power and its perks, and for so long, simply slinks away and meekly begins to take orders from others (especially from those it despises).
Civilian supremacy will only come gradually, and then only if the political class demonstrates maturity, finesse, and sophistication. That is a tall order. Meanwhile, at the minimum, a solid partnership between the military and political class, and mutual support, is the need of the hour.
For, at the moment, a united army with self-belief is our most precious asset (and the most powerful bulwark not democracy) against the fissiparous forces that threaten the state. If, for whatever reason, the army crumbles (which I doubt), the threat of anarchy is real.
The great irony, and paradox, of this situation is not lost on the clear-headed. For it is precisely this same institution that we now desperately need to rely upon that is largely responsible in the first place for creating the mess we now find ourselves in.
Has it really learnt its lesson? What can it we do? Let us leave that for tomorrow.
The writer is a businessman. A selection of his columns is now available in book form. Visit munirattaullah.com
Our army is still, by far, the most powerful player in our political firmament. And it will remain so for the foreseeable future. No one who has enjoyed such overwhelming power and its perks, and for so long, simply slinks away and meekly begins to take orders from others
My original plan was to discuss this subject in three columns. But, having written two, and given a discursive style (for easy reading), I now think good grief! I will need a fourth. So I will leave the specific issue of terrorism and religious militancy in our midst for the final instalment tomorrow.
Keep in mind the following summary of the previous two columns: passivity as a social and political virtue, and a public good, is now passé; there is now a substantial (unbridgeable?) mismatch between a states capacity and ability to deliver (particularly in poor countries) and the real or stimulated expectations of citizens (no longer subjects).
These factors, and others such as the growth and compulsions of a black economy, have combined to greatly diminish respect for the rule of law generally; the contradictions and black holes in the theory and practice of democracy have produced widespread disenchantment with an allegedly least bad political system. Throw the cheap and easy access to deadly modern weaponry and technology into this cauldron of unrest and the result is that internal conflict resolution is now a deeply messy affair, with horrendous collateral damages.
I could have simply (and instinctively) added my voice to the current chorus of anguished screams from our educated class (Is this really happening to us?) and appeals to our army (For Gods sake, do something!). Instead, I have spent two columns putting our problem in a historical and global perspective, the better to first understand it. Of course such understanding does not guarantee finding adequate solutions. However, without diagnosing the kaleidoscopic nature of the problem it is more than likely we will come a cropper through wishful thinking or simplistic solutions.
For example, is a massive programme of socio-economic uplift (to be funded by others, of course!) for our tribal areas the answer? Help it surely will. But the arguments of my previous two columns suggest to me that such a programme could, in our case, be at best only a palliative, not a cure. After all, many a country with several times our GNP, and far better socio-economic indices, has not solved similar problems.
Another example: how about determined military action, either separately or in conjunction with socio-economic measures, as the solution? The Algerian experience (or the Indian experience in Kashmir) is not encouraging. But what distinguishes them from the case of Sri Lanka (that seems to be on the way to stamping out its insurgency)? Or Nepal, where an insurgency succeeded?
Also, if I am right, can any democratic government of ours survive the intense media and opposition outcry when the inevitable and massive collateral damage from a full fledged police or military operation mount up?
As an aside, while I am at it, I cannot resist here another calculated swipe at my least favourite subject of discussion: corruption. Those who believe this scourge to be our Achilles heel (and hence relevant in the present context) are no better than those who believe Sufi Mohammed when he says all will be well once sharia is introduced. Let us not be seduced by red herrings. India is not much different from us on this account. Yet its internal problems, in nature and magnitude, are nowhere near to those that we face.
One final and vitally important consideration: are there in our own case some additional uniquely different circumstances that compound manifold our difficulties? I believe that question must be answered in the affirmative. What is more, I think it goes to the heart of the matter. But we will come to this later.
So, is democracy or, as some would have it, more democracy the answer to our crisis of state?
Let us accept that for the foreseeable future at any rate, and for all its obvious flaws people the world over seem not to contemplate any alternative political system. And so, for better or worse, we are stuck with it too. But all that really means is that everyone is agreed only on the government for the people bit. As for of the people and by the people, it remains very much an open question as to what model ours will morph into in due course.
Will we have true parliamentary democracy? Or will we return to a variant of the Turkish or Musharraf model? Then there is the high possibility of us succumbing to a variant of the Iranian democratic model based on theological despotism. Given our collective schizophrenia, who can say with any confidence where we are headed. Hazarding a guess, I think there is a fair chance (though it will be a close run affair) that we will muddle along with our current democratic experiment
But, whatever the model, I can say three things with some confidence. First, our army will continue to have a pivotal role in state affairs (and that, paradoxically, may be the great blessing in disguise, the more you think about it). Second, the state (at least in the form of the writ of the federal government) will continue to get weaker, though we are highly unlikely to break up as a country, or become a Somalia, or end up being ruled by Taliban types. And, third, local mafias of all sorts (criminal, political, or a more deadly combination of the two) will thrive in a for profit patron-client relationship with the local populace by providing services while forcibly extracting a fee. Third world governments simply dont govern the way, let us say, the Canadian government governs.
For all the façade of democracy, let us face it: our army is still, by far, the most powerful player in our political firmament. And it will remain so for the foreseeable future. No one who has enjoyed such overwhelming power and its perks, and for so long, simply slinks away and meekly begins to take orders from others (especially from those it despises).
Civilian supremacy will only come gradually, and then only if the political class demonstrates maturity, finesse, and sophistication. That is a tall order. Meanwhile, at the minimum, a solid partnership between the military and political class, and mutual support, is the need of the hour.
For, at the moment, a united army with self-belief is our most precious asset (and the most powerful bulwark not democracy) against the fissiparous forces that threaten the state. If, for whatever reason, the army crumbles (which I doubt), the threat of anarchy is real.
The great irony, and paradox, of this situation is not lost on the clear-headed. For it is precisely this same institution that we now desperately need to rely upon that is largely responsible in the first place for creating the mess we now find ourselves in.
Has it really learnt its lesson? What can it we do? Let us leave that for tomorrow.
The writer is a businessman. A selection of his columns is now available in book form. Visit munirattaullah.com
