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What the hell are you talking about? Who said anything about people that support Iran? The whole reason why I'm saying we shouldn't escalate so easily is because that could drag the US into the war! You think we can just fucking nuke Riyadh and get away with it?



At the minimum, the exact same to their bases near the Persian Gulf. To decide whether escalation is needed or not, you would need to tell me what their objective is.

Let's start again.
I apologize for the LOL's, your correct it was inappropriate & I'm sorry!

Let me give you a clear example, let say Iranians wake up on January 1st, 2018 to see all the following destroyed
10 Aircraft bunkers + 5 radars & Sams + 2 costal defense batteries + 1 FAC +1 Corvette & 1 Support vessel destroyed at Chabahar
20 Aircraft bunkers + 5 radars & SAM's + 6 heavy Helo's + 4 Hovercrafts + 3 Kilo Subs + 14 Gadir Submarine and Gadir sub production facility + 5 Iranian frigates (including shiraz & Sahand) + 5 Iranian FAC & Patrol boats + 7 Iranian support vessels destroyed at Bandar Abbas
20 Aircraft Bunkers, 5 Helo's, 5 radars & SAM, 10 FAC & Patrol vessels, 2 Support vessels at Busher
All destroyed over night
Using intel from the U.S. Saudi's can make sure the bunkers targeted and destroyed have fighters or UAV's in them!
Under the pretense of a military exercise Saudi's can move the few corvettes, missile boats, support vessels & minesweepers they have in the Persian Gulf to the red sea a week prior to the attack & they can move most of their fighters to bases over 1000km from Iran prior to the attack & only leave 8 F-15E on stand by ready to scramble at 5 bases within 1000km!
And attacking the targets I pointed out can easily be accomplished with less than 50 F-15E's + 30 F-15C's + Support Aircraft

I wanna know what Saudi assets your going to hit, located where & using what weapon in response?


Remember Saudi have moved most of their Naval assets to the red sea and are keeping only 40 F-15C's across 5 bases within 1000km of Iran for Air Defense and they are all either in the Air or ready to scramble so they can take off as soon as a missile launch is detected


Saudi's have demolished Yemen's entire infrastructure, created a Naval blocked that's creating Famine in Yemen and that alone is all the excuse or reason Iran needs to go after Saudi infrastructure!
You need to judge people & countries by their pattern of behavior. That's why they put pedophiles on a list because no one thinks a pedophile would suddenly behave differently if he is moved to a state with the best police force on the planet. They may change their tactics to try to get away with it but at the end of the day they will behave like pedophiles & Saudi leadership is no different.

As for the U.S. the Saudi's CAN NOT use American weapons to start a war without direct approval from the U.S. and every one knows that! So if the Saudi's attack Iran it would be because the U.S. wanted it and most likely assisted with intel.

Saudi Air Force is funded by Saudi Oil money and Oil industry which makes them legitimate military targets!
Saudi's have the highest military spending per GDP and capita than any other country in the world & that money is not coming from taxes! So
Saudi Oil infrastructure, refineries, depots, oil rigs, oil pipelines,..... are legit military targets
Power plants that power bases & Saudi Oil facilities are legit military targets
Ports that export Saudi Oil that fund Saudi Air Force & import weapons to them are legit military targets
Saudi command & leadership in a monarchy are legit military targets

I'm not saying Iran needs to target schools, shopping malls & hospitals! But Iran's number one target in a war with Saudi Arabia would be Saudi Oil and that is a legit military target!


And even if the Saudi's agree to a cease fire after Iran destroys a few runways & buildings do you honestly think that is an appropriate enough response to convince the Saudi's that they should never do that again? Or else every time Iran builds up it's military capability in the Persian Gulf they will bomb it wait for Iran do destroy some concrete & say o we give up and are very sorry!
 
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Ay baba do you even have a clue of what it is we are talking about?????

Are you telling me that If the Saudi's feel emboldened, miscalculate & escalate to a point where they feel comfortable doing something foolish like attacking an Iranian warship at sea and using their air force to attack an Iranian base, Iran should ONLY restrict it's self to responding in kind by hitting a Saudi warship & a Saudi Air Force base???? Really??? I don't need to be educated in military tactics to understand how foolish that is and aside from Sarbazi almost 2 decades ago I have no formal education in military tactics just what I read as a hobby!

I'm not saying Iran would loose to Saudi Arabia far from it! My point was that Iran CAN NOT afford to go tit for tat against the Saudi Air Force using ballistic missiles! Where they use their Air Force to take out Iranian military assets & we waist our missiles by ONLY targeting the Saudi Air Force with mostly superficial damages because we fear or don't want an escalation! In fact lack of a proper response is what will result in a further escalation because just like Saddam the Saudi's will miscalculate!

If the Saudi's take out an Iranian warship in the gulf of Aden and attack an Iranian Air force base using ~14 F-15E, ~6 F-15C + support aircraft that could easily take out over 50 Iranian military assets. In response, Iran will have to give a clear and decisive answer & that answer CAN NOT be restrictive and foolishly wasted on going after Saudi Air Force bases ONLY our response has to be against assets that help fund & power their Air Force!

And Iran will have to respond harshly for them to get the message so they fully comprehend that they miscalculated or else you would be playing into the hands of the Saudi's!

This is common sense you don't need to be educated in military tactics to comprehend this!



Propaganda is propaganda and people that are pro Iran will remain pro Iran regardless of Iran's response and vice versa

And what part of Saudi behavior has been rational so far that you think you can Iran can ration with these people?

If they attack military targets then in response Iran has to restrict it's self to Saudi Military targets ONLY? LOL! that's nothing but FICTION buddy! It doesn't apply to real life!

And I can promise you that if Iran restrict it's self to ONLY military targets we will lose!

Please explain what targets Iran should take out if the Saudi's destroy
All Iranian Subs, Warships, Fighter & Helo's at Bandar Abbas, Busher & Chabahar????

You think we should target what exactly????? Please explain so I can show you how absurd your way of thinking truly is!!!
i say that about that what you said our missile can do nothing to air force bunker not any thing els about those things you mentioned up about attacking
i want to say in war many factor we can use not only our missile can not destroy a bunker maybe information our anti bunker missile
and if you keep drop water on rock the rock will crack on it
2 iran dont need hit only thair fighter jet did you thing only destroying fighter jet only can one air force useless you can only by hitting their bond or logistic of them make them useless even for one week its in off for grand or marine operation
3. why you dont think about anti bunker missile the khoramshahr missile can carry 1800 kg warhead to 2000 km or maybe 2400kg to 1200km can we use it as anti bunker weapon by carry kinetic warhead
its only my option you must know we have more of them in our commander and weapons we dont know about
 
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Let me give you a clear example, let say Iranians wake up on January 1st, 2018 to see all the following destroyed
10 Aircraft bunkers + 5 radars & Sams + 2 costal defense batteries + 1 FAC +1 Corvette & 1 Support vessel destroyed at Chabahar
20 Aircraft bunkers + 5 radars & SAM's + 6 heavy Helo's + 4 Hovercrafts + 3 Kilo Subs + 14 Gadir Submarine and Gadir sub production facility + 5 Iranian frigates (including shiraz & Sahand) + 5 Iranian FAC & Patrol boats + 7 Iranian support vessels destroyed at Bandar Abbas
20 Aircraft Bunkers, 5 Helo's, 5 radars & SAM, 10 FAC & Patrol vessels, 2 Support vessels at Busher
All destroyed over night

This is exactly why Iran is focusing on Missile tech and stockpiling BMs. Let them destroy what you mentioned. Our missiles will rain on every city and level them all with the ground. Even if they intercept more than half of our missiles it wont save them. Only thing that will remain in SA will be Mekka Medina and dust
 
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Let me give you a clear example, let say Iranians wake up on January 1st, 2018 to see all the following destroyed
10 Aircraft bunkers + 5 radars & Sams + 2 costal defense batteries + 1 FAC +1 Corvette & 1 Support vessel destroyed at Chabahar
20 Aircraft bunkers + 5 radars & SAM's + 6 heavy Helo's + 4 Hovercrafts + 3 Kilo Subs + 14 Gadir Submarine and Gadir sub production facility + 5 Iranian frigates (including shiraz & Sahand) + 5 Iranian FAC & Patrol boats + 7 Iranian support vessels destroyed at Bandar Abbas
20 Aircraft Bunkers, 5 Helo's, 5 radars & SAM, 10 FAC & Patrol vessels, 2 Support vessels at Busher
All destroyed over night
Using intel from the U.S. Saudi's can make sure the bunkers targeted and destroyed have fighters or UAV's in them!
Under the pretense of a military exercise Saudi's can move the few corvettes, missile boats, support vessels & minesweepers they have in the Persian Gulf to the red sea a week prior to the attack & they can move most of their fighters to bases over 1000km from Iran prior to the attack & only leave 8 F-15E on stand by ready to scramble at 5 bases within 1000km!
And attacking the targets I pointed out can easily be accomplished with less than 50 F-15E's + 30 F-15C's + Support Aircraft

That's quite the attack (which I doubt could be accomplished with just 80 aircraft considering Iran's air defence, but that probably isn't relevant to the discussion). I don't think this would happen at all, but it is useful to discuss extreme scenarios since they can expose doctrinal strengths and weaknesses.

I wanna know what Saudi assets your going to hit, located where & using what weapon in response?

While the casus belli is unknown which is a hindrance, I can guess it would probably be something along the lines of "deter/destroy/preempt Iranian ability/intention to aggress against Saudi Arabia", probably after a great deal of tension. Few other reasons are broad enough to be justify such an action, even in the minds of die hard Saudi fans. Maybe they think they could humiliate Iran and Iran would not be able to respond effectively.

This would be a state of complete, very high intensity war, with full mobilisation of the IRGC-ASF and IRIAF, along with whatever is left of the IRIN and IRGC-N. Full scale mobilisation of special operations/rapid reaction forces. Sizeable deployment of IRIA forces to coastal areas.

Having its navy destroyed and its air force damaged, Iran would have little choice but to respond with a massive missile attack on almost every Saudi air defence site, airbase, missile base, and port (housing warships) in the Red Sea. We have the range to do so. Funnily enough, those 8 F-15Es are not really much. Iran could probably even conduct a cautious (ie with lots of contingencies) but large airstrike on targets within range. This attack on military targets would be more severe than the Saudi strike, in order to shock the Saudis and weaken their resolve to continue the war.

Yes, I don't want to escalate. Yet.

Once the strike is complete, issue an ultimatum lasting just a few hours. Maybe 3-6 (they need some time to "consult" with the US and others). Saudi would have to pay Iran massive reparations - let's say $50 billion, in a short time span (they have FOREX reserves, so a week?). Lets throw some other minor concessions in there too, like public apology, prosecution at the UN, temporary ban on Saudi naval vessels in/over the Persian Gulf (I'm thinking a year) etc. If Saudi refuses, Iran would conduct strikes on industrial and high value targets until Saudi accepts the terms. These would be the oil facilities, presidential royal palaces, ports, pipelines, power plants (preferably not those near extremely critical infrastructure like desalination plants) etc. that you mentioned.

This approach not only gives us many different advantages. There is a possibility that we could end the war quickly, getting a handsome profit that could rebuild the navy and other affected parts, and a boost in national pride and influence. If the Saudis refuse and we attack industrial HVTs, we still look good on the international stage, because we warned them, restrained ourselves initially, and gave them a chance for peace. It is vitally important that you always seem like the peaceful one, the one who is defending yourself, the one who wants justice and not revenge.

In regards to preventing the Saudis from doing it again, the effective destruction of much of their military would teach them the strategic depth of Iranian conventional military power. The reparations would help make a formidable Iranian military that could deter the Saudis more effectively.

But I will say again, this sort of attack would not happen. Any direct conflict between Iran and Saudi would be a short, limited affair, probably with little losses on each side. 2 or 3 major warships, a handful of aircraft. Think Falklands War. Such a war would be the result of high tensions, miscalculations, or escalated skirmishes. Iran would not need to demand reparations (which would require the threat of escalation) since the losses would be relatively few, and as such Iran could probably try to get whatever compensation it wants through international courts. The massive increase in oil prices would help.
 
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i say that about that what you said our missile can do nothing to air force bunker not any thing els about those things you mentioned up about attacking
i want to say in war many factor we can use not only our missile can not destroy a bunker maybe information our anti bunker missile
and if you keep drop water on rock the rock will crack on it
2 iran dont need hit only thair fighter jet did you thing only destroying fighter jet only can one air force useless you can only by hitting their bond or logistic of them make them useless even for one week its in off for grand or marine operation
3. why you dont think about anti bunker missile the khoramshahr missile can carry 1800 kg warhead to 2000 km or maybe 2400kg to 1200km can we use it as anti bunker weapon by carry kinetic warhead
its only my option you must know we have more of them in our commander and weapons we dont know about


And how many Khorramshar, Emad, Ghadr, Shahab-3 & Sejil missiles do you think Iran has to go after individual bunkers?
Yes combined we probably have over 1000 of them which means we cannot risk firing 100's of MRBM at a single Saudi Air Force base with over 100 bunkers and without live actionable intel you could be emptying out your MRBM on empty bunkers!!!!!!!! And it's not a question of payload! It's a question of accuracy at ranges beyond 1200km

Even if we demolish every runway at every Saudi Air Force base that is not an adequate response to them whipping out most of Iran's Navy, 60 Aircrafts(Fighters, Helo's & UAV's) , Vital radars & SAM

Runways and building can be rebuilt within a year and it would cost a fraction of what it would cost to rebuild your navy and it would take Iran decades to rebuild it's Navy! Not to mention the Aircraft, Helos, SAM, Radars & Ballistic Missiles that was lost!

If the idiots running Saudi Arabia thought for one second that they could get away with whipping out Iran's Navy and all they'd lose was all the runways at every Air Force Base in Saudi Arabia and maybe 50 aircraft's damaged or destroyed they would gladly give it! to top it off Iran also wasted it's MRBM on nothing! It's a no brainer!!!
American can repair the vital runway's so they are usable within day's and fully repair their bases within a year!

Saudi oil is what funds Saudi Military which means Saudi Oil is a legit military target and Iran will have to go after targets that can't so easily be rebuilt and a large Oil facility, factory, port or power plant you can easily target with current Iranian MRBM but a small hardened and well protected Aircraft bunker is a different story!!!!!!!!!!! And it has nothing to do with payload

And this has nothing to do with Iran choosing BM over fighter jet! It's a matter of geography!!! The Saudi's can transfer their Navy to the Red Sea but we don't have that luxury!!!!
And if all we had to respond with was 200 Su-30's we would have been in a far worse situation and it still wouldn't have made much difference in prevention of a surprise attack using modern weapons against Iranian costal targets off the Persian Gulf!
Thank God we have Ballistic Missiles BUT we still can't restrict ourselves to Saudi Air Force Bases ONLY! Iran has too and will go after Saudi Oil and infrastructure that help fund, power & replenish the Saudi Air Force
 
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That's quite the attack (which I doubt could be accomplished with just 80 aircraft considering Iran's air defence, but that probably isn't relevant to the discussion). I don't think this would happen at all, but it is useful to discuss extreme scenarios since they can expose doctrinal strengths and weaknesses.



While the casus belli is unknown which is a hindrance, I can guess it would probably be something along the lines of "deter/destroy/preempt Iranian ability/intention to aggress against Saudi Arabia", probably after a great deal of tension. Few other reasons are broad enough to be justify such an action, even in the minds of die hard Saudi fans. Maybe they think they could humiliate Iran and Iran would not be able to respond effectively.

This would be a state of complete, very high intensity war, with full mobilisation of the IRGC-ASF and IRIAF, along with whatever is left of the IRIN and IRGC-N. Full scale mobilisation of special operations/rapid reaction forces. Sizeable deployment of IRIA forces to coastal areas.

Having its navy destroyed and its air force damaged, Iran would have little choice but to respond with a massive missile attack on almost every Saudi air defence site, airbase, missile base, and port (housing warships) in the Red Sea. We have the range to do so. Funnily enough, those 8 F-15Es are not really much. Iran could probably even conduct a cautious (ie with lots of contingencies) but large airstrike on targets within range. This attack on military targets would be more severe than the Saudi strike, in order to shock the Saudis and weaken their resolve to continue the war.

Yes, I don't want to escalate. Yet.

Once the strike is complete, issue an ultimatum lasting just a few hours. Maybe 3-6 (they need some time to "consult" with the US and others). Saudi would have to pay Iran massive reparations - let's say $50 billion, in a short time span (they have FOREX reserves, so a week?). Lets throw some other minor concessions in there too, like public apology, prosecution at the UN, temporary ban on Saudi naval vessels in/over the Persian Gulf (I'm thinking a year) etc. If Saudi refuses, Iran would conduct strikes on industrial and high value targets until Saudi accepts the terms. These would be the oil facilities, presidential royal palaces, ports, pipelines, power plants (preferably not those near extremely critical infrastructure like desalination plants) etc. that you mentioned.

This approach not only gives us many different advantages. There is a possibility that we could end the war quickly, getting a handsome profit that could rebuild the navy and other affected parts, and a boost in national pride and influence. If the Saudis refuse and we attack industrial HVTs, we still look good on the international stage, because we warned them, restrained ourselves initially, and gave them a chance for peace. It is vitally important that you always seem like the peaceful one, the one who is defending yourself, the one who wants justice and not revenge.

In regards to preventing the Saudis from doing it again, the effective destruction of much of their military would teach them the strategic depth of Iranian conventional military power. The reparations would help make a formidable Iranian military that could deter the Saudis more effectively.

But I will say again, this sort of attack would not happen. Any direct conflict between Iran and Saudi would be a short, limited affair, probably with little losses on each side. 2 or 3 major warships, a handful of aircraft. Think Falklands War. Such a war would be the result of high tensions, miscalculations, or escalated skirmishes. Iran would not need to demand reparations (which would require the threat of escalation) since the losses would be relatively few, and as such Iran could probably try to get whatever compensation it wants through international courts. The massive increase in oil prices would help.


I wanna know what assets you would take out, located where using what weapon system??? Just saying we will lob missiles at all their military bases is not a strategy.

It would take decades for Iran to rebuild it's Navy! You think the Saudi's are going to take out Iran's Navy & then sit with the U.S. and agree to give Iran a bunch of new ships + $50 Billion USD so the war would end? And under Trump! Really?

Logically, Saudi's would relocate most of their fleet to bases beyond 1000km to stay out of reach of Fatteh-110, Fatteh-313, Qiam & Zolfaghar missiles so firing $500k - $1M missiles to destroy some concrete and asphalt at empty bases within 300-800km is absurd!
And it would take us a decade to rebuild our Ballistic Missile stockpile so wasting our missiles on some empty bases is again absurd!

And Air Force targets beyond 1000km your looking at a few lucky shots but by the most part you'll be destroying runways and a few buildings with limited damage to some of their fighters at best.

As for the Saudi Navy you understand Saudi Arabia's main Naval base is in Jaddeh so you'll be firing missiles over Macca to reach them! Who do you think the Muslim world would blame if the Saudi's shoot down an Iranian missile heading towards Jaddeh which has to pass over Macca with fragments falling all over Kaaba?
Talk about pissing off 2 billion people! Your better off going after Saudi Oil!

And hitting Naval bases without actually taking out the ships is worthless! Your not hitting anything that can't be replaced in a fairly short amount of time with limited financial damages!

My education is in Graphic Design & I'm not educated in military tactics but common sense is still common sense!
Your saying even if the Saudi's wipeout Iran's Navy you still wouldn't go after what funds the Saudi Air Force! I'm sorry but that sound a bit naive to me!

Today your willing to give up the destruction of Iran's Navy, costal radar, SAM's, Helos, fighter jet, UAV's & the destruction of Iranian bases for $50 Billion USD what's next? Iranian Islands?
How much would you want if they wanna take Persian Gulf, Abu Musa, Tumb koochee o bozorgh Islands in the Persian Gulf the year after?

Iran's Navy is worth more than $50 Billion USD because NO ONE is going to sell us Kilo Subs & it would take Iran decades to rebuild it's Navy & Saudi's would have no fear of destroying it again!!!

This has NOTHIGN to do with revenge! This about teaching them a lesson! It's like the JCPOA now that Iran agreed to a deal they want more! And if Iran falls short of answering properly to any attack on it's assets then they will want more and they'll do it again!
Revenge would be turning their cities into dust! A good spanking would be taking away their cash & that can only be accomplished by taking out Saudi OIL infrastructure...... And Iran just needs to take out half of their Oil infrastructure so they still have fear of loosing the other half if behave badly!


F-15C equipped for Air Defense have a high combat radius and it's 40 F-15 C that's 8 F-15C deployed at 5 bases in the Air or on standby to maintain Air Superiority over northern Saudi boarder & the rest of the Saudi Air Force deployed over 1000km away can come in patrol vital areas and go back and park and land as bases beyond 1000km! (This is to stay out of rang of Iran's Qiam, Fatteh-110, Fatteh-313 & Zolfaghar missiles)

As for the F-15E this is how may SDB you can put on an F-15E if they were to replace the two in the middle with a fuel pod and hit each target I mentioned with 2 SDB bombs that's still more than enough F-15E's to take out all the targets I mentioned and then some and they could do it from over 50km away outside Iranian Air Space!

10 F-15E at Chabahar = 80 Targets, 20 F-15E at Bandar Abbas = 160 Targets & 20 F-15E at Busher ..... With 6 F-15C as escort & jamming for every 10 F-15E's and that's more than enough to take out far more targets that I mentioned....





If
 
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And how many Khorramshar, Emad, Ghadr, Shahab-3 & Sejil missiles do you think Iran has to go after individual bunkers?
Yes combined we probably have over 1000 of them which means we cannot risk firing 100's of MRBM at a single Saudi Air Force base with over 100 bunkers and without live actionable intel you could be emptying out your MRBM on empty bunkers!!!!!!!! And it's not a question of payload! It's a question of accuracy at ranges beyond 1200km

Even if we demolish every runway at every Saudi Air Force base that is not an adequate response to them whipping out most of Iran's Navy, 60 Aircrafts(Fighters, Helo's & UAV's) , Vital radars & SAM

Runways and building can be rebuilt within a year and it would cost a fraction of what it would cost to rebuild your navy and it would take Iran decades to rebuild it's Navy! Not to mention the Aircraft, Helos, SAM, Radars & Ballistic Missiles that was lost!

If the idiots running Saudi Arabia thought for one second that they could get away with whipping out Iran's Navy and all they'd lose was all the runways at every Air Force Base in Saudi Arabia and maybe 50 aircraft's damaged or destroyed they would gladly give it! to top it off Iran also wasted it's MRBM on nothing! It's a no brainer!!!
American can repair the vital runway's so they are usable within day's and fully repair their bases within a year!

Saudi oil is what funds Saudi Military which means Saudi Oil is a legit military target and Iran will have to go after targets that can't so easily be rebuilt and a large Oil facility, factory, port or power plant you can easily target with current Iranian MRBM but a small hardened and well protected Aircraft bunker is a different story!!!!!!!!!!! And it has nothing to do with payload

And this has nothing to do with Iran choosing BM over fighter jet! It's a matter of geography!!! The Saudi's can transfer their Navy to the Red Sea but we don't have that luxury!!!!
And if all we had to respond with was 200 Su-30's we would have been in a far worse situation and it still wouldn't have made much difference in prevention of a surprise attack using modern weapons against Iranian costal targets off the Persian Gulf!
Thank God we have Ballistic Missiles BUT we still can't restrict ourselves to Saudi Air Force Bases ONLY! Iran has too and will go after Saudi Oil and infrastructure that help fund, power & replenish the Saudi Air Force
im sorry i say it but i think you dont know very much about tactic in the war
1.you dont need destroy all bunker you said over 100 bunkers how much fighter su have its funny maybe over 1000 fighter if iran hit on fighter with one missile is not good every fighter over 40 -60 mi dollars but every missile very fewer than that
2.when you hit on bunker with 1 kinetic warhead with khoramshahr or emad or sejil you dont need hit it again with those missile you can hit it with shahabs or zolfhaghar or ....
3.what do you yhink about war between iran and su camel rider 10 years no dear maybe very much 3 months
4. did you think iran only attack with navy and or sams and our airforce do nothing they came and destroy our naval force dont be ....
5 of course iran hit aramco and oil field in su every one think like that and i dont know why yemen dont hit them
 
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I wanna know what assets you would take out, located where using what weapon system??? Just saying we will lob missiles at all their military bases is not a strategy.

It would take decades for Iran to rebuild it's Navy! You think the Saudi's are going to take out Iran's Navy & then sit with the U.S. and agree to give Iran a bunch of new ships + $50 Billion USD so the war would end? And under Trump! Really?

Logically, Saudi's would relocate most of their fleet to bases beyond 1000km to stay out of reach of Fatteh-110, Fatteh-313, Qiam & Zolfaghar missiles so firing $500k - $1M missiles to destroy some concrete and asphalt at empty bases within 300-800km is absurd!
And it would take us a decade to rebuild our Ballistic Missile stockpile so wasting our missiles on some empty bases is again absurd!

And Air Force targets beyond 1000km your looking at a few lucky shots but by the most part you'll be destroying runways and a few buildings with limited damage to some of their fighters at best.

As for the Saudi Navy you understand Saudi Arabia's main Naval base is in Jaddeh so you'll be firing missiles over Macca to reach them! Who do you think the Muslim world would blame if the Saudi's shoot down an Iranian missile heading towards Jaddeh which has to pass over Macca with fragments falling all over Kaaba?
Talk about pissing off 2 billion people! Your better off going after Saudi Oil!

And hitting Naval bases without actually taking out the ships is worthless! Your not hitting anything that can't be replaced in a fairly short amount of time with limited financial damages!

My education is in Graphic Design & I'm not educated in military tactics but common sense is still common sense!
Your saying even if the Saudi's wipeout Iran's Navy you still wouldn't go after what funds the Saudi Air Force! I'm sorry but that sound a bit naive to me!

Today your willing to give up the destruction of Iran's Navy, costal radar, SAM's, Helos, fighter jet, UAV's & the destruction of Iranian bases for $50 Billion USD what's next? Iranian Islands?
How much would you want if they wanna take Persian Gulf, Abu Musa, Tumb koochee o bozorgh Islands in the Persian Gulf the year after?

Iran's Navy is worth more than $50 Billion USD because NO ONE is going to sell us Kilo Subs & it would take Iran decades to rebuild it's Navy & Saudi's would have no fear of destroying it again!!!

This has NOTHIGN to do with revenge! This about teaching them a lesson! It's like the JCPOA now that Iran agreed to a deal they want more! And if Iran falls short of answering properly to any attack on it's assets then they will want more and they'll do it again!
Revenge would be turning their cities into dust! A good spanking would be taking away their cash & that can only be accomplished by taking out Saudi OIL infrastructure...... And Iran just needs to take out half of their Oil infrastructure so they still have fear of loosing the other half if behave badly!


F-15C equipped for Air Defense have a high combat radius and it's 40 F-15 C that's 8 F-15C deployed at 5 bases in the Air or on standby to maintain Air Superiority over northern Saudi boarder & the rest of the Saudi Air Force deployed over 1000km away can come in patrol vital areas and go back and park and land as bases beyond 1000km! (This is to stay out of rang of Iran's Qiam, Fatteh-110, Fatteh-313 & Zolfaghar missiles)

As for the F-15E this is how may SDB you can put on an F-15E if they were to replace the two in the middle with a fuel pod and hit each target I mentioned with 2 SDB bombs that's still more than enough F-15E's to take out all the targets I mentioned and then some and they could do it from over 50km away outside Iranian Air Space!

10 F-15E at Chabahar = 80 Targets, 20 F-15E at Bandar Abbas = 160 Targets & 20 F-15E at Busher ..... With 6 F-15C as escort & jamming for every 10 F-15E's and that's more than enough to take out far more targets that I mentioned....





If

The flaw in your argument is that you assume without question Saudi can destroy basically Iran's entire navy and much of its air defence infrastructure, after getting past S-300 and numerous other other systems. Yet I am supposed to actually explain how Iran would go about its own actions. Quite an unbalanced argument. So I think I will start picking holes in your argument. For one, I don't think the Saudis can do the damage you say they can. After all, Iranian Air Defence covers much of the Persian Gulf, and radars cover most of the region. Iran would not sit idle and let it all happen. The Saudis would most likely lose a bunch of aircraft, and at best only partially damage Iranian naval/air defence assets.

Without that "concrete and asphalt" the Saudi Air Force is grounded. Ground their air force, and after a large missile strike that destroys air defences, the IRIAF can attack the hardened aircraft shelters and ships with precision. Remember - the IRIAF still maintains aerial refuelling aircraft, it has long range ASCMs like the Qader mounted on F-4s, and some standoff missiles on the Su-24. And remember Iran has the Soumar which, as a cruise missile, can just avoid the Mecca area completely with a little bit of course planning, and hit ships with great precision.

I largely think all this discussion is pointless because we cannot accurately predict what either side could do, would do, or wants to do. You cannot blend strategic decisions with tactical decisions so easily. I think Iran should:

1. Make a proportional response to any attack, which means if they attack small, we attack small, if they attack big, we attack big. Although, this does depend on the casus belli of the enemy, which you still have not outlined.

2. Try to force a ceasefire that would be in Iran's favour, like reparations and concessions on the Saudis, with the threat of further action if demands not met. If these demands are not met, the 3rd stage.

3. Destruction of Saudi strategic industry, like ports, oil facilities and power plants with ballistic missiles until the demands are met.

I have already told you, we cannot just "teach them a lesson" like it's nothing. They have the backing of the US and the US would be more than happy to have an excuse to deal some serious damage on Iran. That's why any escalation has to have a clearly defined objective, not as an escalation for unspecified lesson teaching.
 
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The only way Iran's Ballistic Missiles could have any kind of desirable impact against Saudi Air Force is if we start the war & take preemptive action with good intel and that's something Iranian leaders would never do!!
But in such a scenario you are prepared for Saudi retaliation so
Your Navy is prepped with most of your subs & ships deployed so they don't become easy targets with radars on and personal ready to take action
Your Air Force is prepped with assets moved and ready to scramble
Your Air Defense is prepped your SAM's & radars are on and ready to take action long before an enemy fighter jet gets even close to your Air Space
etc, etc, etc,

But if the Saudi's start the war they could easily take out a large portion of Iranian military assets in the south & it would be fairly standard for them to prep for Iran's retaliation and if that happens then NO Iranian missiles will not have much use against the Saudi Air Force! Naturally, we will fire missiles at their Air Force to disrupt operation but we can not individually target assets! Unless Iran can deploy hundreds of spy sats at various orbits that can feed you live intel on what bunker to hit and when then even with a CEP of 50 meters at over 1500km it is just not likely! At least not with Ballistic Missiles or Cruise missiles fired from Iran!

Iran would have to go after what funds, fuels, powers & commands the Saudi Air Force rather than the actual fighter jets!

That's the ONLY way we would be able to bring the Saudi's back down to reality & to make them understand that they miscalculated and ensure that they don't do it again!

If the Saudi's wipeout Iran's Navy and we respond by destroying some runways & buildings at a few Saudi Air Force bases and the Saudi's go and say we made a mistake, we give up and lets start peace talks that means they are playing us for fools and that will only ensure that they do it again once Iran rebuilds it's Navy! Unless they agree to hand over their Navy to us we would have to be fools to accept such nonsense and we would HAVE to go after Saudi money which means we have to go after Saudi Oil to make them hurt so they never make such an idiotic move again!

I think Iran air defense forces at least in early warning part doing good job, if Saudis would start a massive attack on Iran with their air force (Like what Saddam did at the beginning of the Iran-Iraq war which luckily failed) and we couldn't defend ourselves and receive damage in that level and lose our naval forces and air bases in south then to be honest my friend we've lost the game already ... 'cause being surprised in war just means defeat .. I don't think we would never start a war and that means we should always be prepared to defend which obviously needs to have an eye on your foes all the time to not get surprised. but again by referring to Iran and Iraq war, despite clear attempts and provocation of Saddam since Esfand 57 we didn't respond very well and eventually war started which could have prevented and saved country from such a war.
I do agree with you that we need to escalate situation if war starts, because if you don't do that it means you give them this message that what ever they do Iran responses are limited to some missile attack on some military targets without any serious damage which undoubtedly would encourage them to attack again but if you have a strong defend system that repel their attacks causing them severe damage and then a crushing respond they would recalculate their strategy , it could first prevent war from getting prolonged and secondly a clear message to others that Iran would not hesitate a second to defend itself.
 
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@raptor22 @AmirPatriot @VEVAK

You are all overstating the effectiveness of Saudi Air Defences.

Be realistic and read this article:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...east/saudi-missile-defense.html?smid=tw-share

Saudi Air Defence my a**

I was just about to link this great article to @PeeD. It's on my clipboard and everything.

Nevertheless, don't be too confident. Saudi at this time only have the PAC-2. The PAC-3 and THAAD that they are buying are more capable systems. But still, this is an interesting development.
 
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I was just about to link this to @PeeD. It's on my clipboard and everything.

Nevertheless, don't be too confident. Saudi at this time only have the PAC-2. The PAC-3 and THAAD that they are buying are more capable systems. But still, this is an interesting development.

What?! I thought they already have the PAC-3!

Even then, a good read considering their PAC-2 has been modernized and upgraded, and this is its effectiveness against a mere Scud-C BM.
 
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I was just about to link this great article to @PeeD. It's on my clipboard and everything.

Nevertheless, don't be too confident. Saudi at this time only have the PAC-2. The PAC-3 and THAAD that they are buying are more capable systems. But still, this is an interesting development.

Saudis Pac2 missiles were fired from here, west of the Riyadh airport.

DQNdGUyVAAEVYzO.jpg
 
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ALCON,

Bit of a brain storm here folks so I apologize in advance of the length of this post.

First, lets be perfectly clear. "On paper", it's hard to see how the Saudis could be more prepared for a conflict with Iran (with a few exceptions addressed below). The question is, how well can they use their excellent kit?

It's interesting, at least to me, how the Saudis & Iranian defenses are set up to deal with certain threats, and the possible pitfalls they face. For example..

1) Cruise Missiles (regardless of target)- Iranian military planners have clearly paid attention to the USAF/USN use of LACMs in nearly every conflict since 1991. These are still a difficult threat to deal with for any military.
> For the Saudis, due to their aging Shahine SAMs (their only real low-level SAM), they relay on the RSAF to not only provide early warning (via E-3s/Saab 2000s, likely much earlier than any ground-based radar could) but also likely in their neutralization via fighter jets.
> For Iran, they have no airborne early warning to a cruise missile attack and instead are forced to relay entirely on ground-based radar units. Likewise, as the IRIAF is ill-suited to task of dispatching large #s of LACMs, ground-based SHORADs and deception (GPS jammers for example) are their only real defense.

2) Runway Attack- The reliance on long, undamaged runways, was identified VERY early in the Cold War and was one of the chief drivers behind the development of the British Harrier (folks forget that putting it on a carrier was something of an afterthought). Curiously though, the idea eventually fell out of favor (for any number of reasons). Such attacks can come from accurate, sub-munition warhead equipped ballistic missiles, low-flying strike aircraft, or cruise-missiles with sub-munition warheads.
>As such, a successfully attack on the runways of RSAF air bases is a real threat. Their only real defense is their Patriot batteries or the preventive elimination of enemy launch sites & TELs. Hiding their valuable combat aircraft is fine and dandy, but if the Patriots fail to keep a majority of missiles from impacting, quickly repairing the runways after each wave of attack will become a game of persistence and possible futility.
>>WILDCARD- Given growing signs of a greater Egypt-Saudi alliance, Egypt could potentially open her airfields to the RSAF to evacuate to temporarily. Putting their most valuable assets (tankers, AWACs, & F-15S/SA) as far West as possible will allow them to still be able to operate in their own airspace from a safer distance (where Iran would be forced to use her more long-range BMs, which limits the saturation factor and gives Egyptian Patriot & S-300V batteries better odds of success). Not to mention if Iran does attack these new locations for the RSAF, it drags another powerful military into the conflict, expanding the conflict likely beyond Iran's ability to control.
>For Iran, this threat doesn't come from ballistic missiles but from the RSAF. The inventory of weapons available to the RSAF to attack IRIAF bases from afar (aka outside of most of their SAMs, including the S-300PMU2 in some cases). How many such weapons are configured with sub-munition warheads is unknown. Only options to protect runways is via SHORADs and electronic jamming.

3) Hardened Aircraft Shelters or HAS- I'm NOT as confident Iran is prepared to deal with these. For modern HAS, a true bunker-buster bomb would be needed, something Iran has not demonstrated having yet. The Ghased (not to detract from it) is "just" a normal 2000lb bomb with a TV seeker and wing kit. Bunker-busters have specially designed warheads and often hardened tips to maximize penetration upon impact. Iran's KAB-1500Ls are probably the closet to real bunker-busters we know about and more so due to their larger warheads.

4) Wild Weasel Attacks- aka attacks on ground-based air defense sites. This can come from manned/unmanned platforms and from cruise missiles.
>The threat to Saudi radar sites would likely come from a combination of Iranian suicide drones, LACMs (if the Soumar has been built in large #s), and ballistic missiles (Hormuz-2 being a prime candidate). This multi-pronged threat would be difficult to deal with. It would difficult for the RSADF and RSAF to determine which targets were real threats or decoys.
>This threat to Iran comes solely from the RSAF, which has a surprisingly large inventory of medium-range LACMs (~1100), ~350 JSOW stand-off weapons & 600 AGM-88s in their inventory. They obviously wouldn't use ALL their LACMs on Iranian radar/SAM sites but they are among the "best" targets. They also have large inventories of many other kinds of smart munitions (thousands of Hellfires, Mavericks, Paveways, JDAMs, and SDBs) which also could be used, depending on the threat level to the aircraft.

5) Naval Attack- Easily the most lop-sided element of any future conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is on the sea.
> For the RSN, the threats from Iran are numerous. Coastal AshM batteries, ASBMs, mini-submarines, and swarms of variously-armed FACs. Not reliant on runways, the Saudis best strategy (assuming the RSAF is grounded) would be to use their large fleet of AH-64s from the ground forces, combined with the RSN's respectable inventory of helos to try and deal with Iranian swarm attacks and submarines.
> For the IRIN/IRCN, the primary threat is again from the RSAF. Should it be removed from the playing field, the RSN's surface fleet with be very exposed. Even with my proposed helo strategy, equipped every surface vessel over 50 tons displacement with at least 1 MANPAD team (& then spreading some among the smaller vessels) will diminish that threat considerably.

This "little" brain storm excludes a lot of tactics, how I think such a conflict could start, and the very idea of the US intervening...which it ABSOLUTELY would under the current administration, no matter who starts it.

Cheers.
 
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Bit of a brain storm here folks so I apologize in advance of the length of this post.

No need to apologise. The more the merrier.

Your post highlights how the lack of a competitive air force (and the accompanying weapon systems) really put Iran behind the curve on many fronts - SEAD, naval combat, targeting enemy aircraft on the ground, detection. It is a real pain to lack such a versatile force.
 
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