Iranian Chill Thread

[HGV]

In Cyberattacks, Iran Shows Signs of Improved Hacking Capabilities

A monthslong hacking campaign targeted the governments of regional rivals, including Israel, and marked a turn, a new report says, as the attacks were used to collect intelligence, not just disrupt services.

www.nytimes.com

There is a paywall, can you share the text?

A lot of weird news spreading:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719439086895652964

random tweets is not news spreading

 

[TheImmortal]

Iskander is the only ballistic missile they use in numbers and even then they have not been launched in large numbers compared to cruise missiles or drones

Irrelevant wether 1000 BMs were fired or 250 BMs and 750 CMs end result is the same = interceptors used. Which again you didn’t address the point, if Ukraine isn’t out of interceptors after 2 years of war how will you milk Israel with such a low sortie rate?

Not true:

"The Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen said on Sunday the Iran-aligned Houthi group had fired 430 ballistic missiles and 851 armed drones at Saudi Arabia since the war started in 2015, killing 59 Saudi civilians."

Compare that to CMs launched and was over the course of 8 years of war. Furthermore, remember many of the BMs fired towards Saudi Arabia were not 1500KM but older soviet era inventory (ex. Tochka) then later as iranian supplied SRBMs and MRBMs.

Can’t fire 200-600KM missiles at Israel.

It costs them a lot of money,

America pays who cares? Biden asked for 100B for Ukraine and Israel.

they have to deploy significant air force resources to constantly monitor south Israel to intercept drones

America pays who cares?

Is your plan to Bankrupt Israel? Is that how your going to save Gaza?

It also leaves them more vulnerable to Hezbollah/Iranian missile attacks,

Zero HZ missile attacks so far much less any Iranian involvement.

and thus less likely to escalate against Hezbollah or Iran.

???

The goal was saving Gaza from occupation and after all this talk you landed on “well they won’t escalate against HZ and Iran”. Lol solid plan man. I was worried that Israel was going to invade Iran. /s

So this plan you have does nothing to stop the Gaza occupation. Got it.

1000km is the official claimed range of the Abu Mahdi ASCM, it's not a "random number".

Iran has spy ships in the region as well as 3 of its own satellites in orbit to assist with that.

Guess who else is in the Red Sea? US navy. Saudi Navy. NATO navy. You forget Yemen is under a navy blockade.

Abu Mahdi missile is referred to by Iranian generals as an anti-ship missile.

Yes if you have exact coordinates of ship at all times. Or else primary navigation method is INS + GLNSS with the possibility of terrain mapping navigation if Iran has accurate updates terrain mapping of local geography.

We can forget about the 200km range missile (they would have to go within 50-100km of Yemen unless they want to strike random Yemeni beaches).

Saudi Arabia routinely struck Yemen. No suddenly it’s difficult for Israel to strike Yemen?

How many Israeli ships carry the Popeye-LR missile and in what quantities?

Irrelevant. The point is they can attack Houthis. You act like Israel somehow cannot replicate what Saudi Arabia did for years…..one time. Which is bomb Yemen.

We are discussing Israel's practical ability to respond. I am not suggesting they should launch massive attacks.

Israel has enough tools to do token strikes against Yemen. It really won’t matter how big or how small since Yemen and by convention Houthi’s are an asymmetrical military. Although they could strike at some weapon depots and storage facilities to inflict some “monetary and equipment” losses on Houthis.

I am suggesting it is not practical for them to do so, and even if they are able to do so, it will have very limited effect.

Practical? They are fighting a major war. Practicality left long time ago. They are still bombing Lebanon and Syria. Doing a sortie campaign to drop some bombs or firing some CMs from submarines or navy ships into Yemen is not as much of a challenge you are making it out to be.

You are over exaggerating the deterrence power of Houthi’s and understating the capabilities of Israel to do some token strikes in Yemen.

I checked the map and the map said those ships would have to travel >2000km to get close to Yemen. That takes time

At 20 knots/hr it takes less than 4 days less to get within striking range of North Yemen.

Mowj vessel goes 30knots/hr (55km/hr) just for reference.

I still think it’s easier to do an air launched campaign or launch CMs via submarines.

Nonetheless they are likely already there

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719476205651444222

and my point is Israel doesn't have a blue water navy.

I don’t dispute this, neither does Iran. Doesn’t stop them from operating in their region. Red Sea is not considered blue waters. Blue water navy = ocean crossing

 

[HGV]

Irrelevant wether 1000 BMs were fired or 250 BMs and 750 CMs end result is the same = interceptors used. Which again you didn’t address the point, if Ukraine isn’t out of interceptors after 2 years of war how will you milk Israel with such a low sortie rate?

Let me summarise all of the below: we know Houthis cannot inflict much damage on Israel, and their missile strikes will certainly not free Palestine, but they will be a useful strain on Israeli BMD systems and air force in the region, and Israel's tactical air power doctrine means it lacks good options to retaliate to deter the continuation of those strikes

You said Houthis "mostly fired CMs as BM is harder to procure and manufacture". But I showed Houthis fired 430 ballistic missiles into Saudi Arabia.

Is your plan to Bankrupt Israel? Is that how your going to save Gaza?

Where did I say that was the objective?

Zero HZ missile attacks so far much less any Iranian involvement.

... the point is if they do come it will be when Israeli radars are diverted and BMD missiles are depleted

The goal was saving Gaza from occupation

??? Show me where I said this

Saudi Arabia routinely struck Yemen. No suddenly it’s difficult for Israel to strike Yemen?

From the sea?

Irrelevant. The point is they can attack Houthis. You act like Israel somehow cannot replicate what Saudi Arabia did for years…..one time. Which is bomb Yemen.

Israel has enough tools to do token strikes against Yemen. It really won’t matter how big or how small since Yemen and by convention Houthi’s are an asymmetrical military. Although they could strike at some weapon depots and storage facilities to inflict some “monetary and equipment” losses on Houthis.

Well I say there is a big difference between Saudis invading a neighbour and Isreal, a tactical air power centric country 1700km away from Yemen, attacking Yemen

Practical? They are fighting a major war. Practicality left long time ago. They are still bombing Lebanon and Syria. Doing a sortie campaign to drop some bombs or firing some CMs from submarines or navy ships into Yemen is not as much of a challenge you are making it out to be.

You are over exaggerating the deterrence power of Houthi’s and understating the capabilities of Israel to do some token strikes in Yemen.

I said they can do token strikes but it won't have any impact. The point is Israel cannot deter Houthi missile strikes given lack of militarily meaningful options for retaliation

I still think it’s easier to do an air launched campaign or launch CMs via submarines.

Their subs likely carry < 10 such missiles per submarine and some of them will be carrying nuclear warheads

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719385081754628522

 

[Hormuz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719454069649969198

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719480781288943979

 

[PakistaniandProud]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719482541902561480

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719472687733510624

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719474139394887795

 

[TheImmortal]

Let me summarise all of the below: we know Houthis cannot inflict much damage on Israel, and their missile strikes will certainly not free Palestine, but they will be a useful strain on Israeli BMD systems and air force in the region

Useful strain how? I have asked you this multiple times. Other than wasting interceptors that US tax payers will pay for, what usefulness is there? If HZ and Iran don’t join there is no true usefulness.

Same as when US bombs a couple warehouses in Syria against Iran backed legions. Does nothing.

You said Houthis "mostly fired CMs as BM is harder to procure and manufacture". But I showed Houthis fired 430 ballistic missiles into Saudi Arabia.

Yes and you didn’t show how many CMs they fired in relation to BMs. Do you know what “mostly” means? If 600 CMs fired = mostly in relation to 430 BMs.

Also you refused to acknowledged that the amount you cite (if even true) was over 8 years of war. Coming out to slightly more than 55 missiles a year or less than 5 ballistic missiles a month.

Again most of those were SRBM, not missiles with 2000KM range so it’s irrelevant to correlate to how many Houthi’s can fire towards Israel this time around.

Lastly, if Houthi’s fired 430 BMs at Saudi Arabia and its few major cities that this desert country’s does have didn’t end up looking like the surface of the moon, then that would suggest that the Patriot intercepted the vast majority of them. No?

So which story you want to lead with?

• Option A) 430 BMs fired, but strangely not many got thru nor did Saudi Arabia run out of interceptors.
• Option B) Saudi Arabia was lying about the amount of ballistic missiles fired by Houthis

Where did I say that was the objective?

Apparently there is no defined objective to this strategy. Other than wasting US taxpayer money.

... the point is if they do come it will be when Israeli radars are diverted and BMD missiles are depleted

A BIG IF and as I demonstrated above. 5 missiles a month isn’t going to overwhelm their missile shield inventory. 5 missiles a week probably wouldn’t either. So as I said earlier, the amount of missiles is not significant enough at this point.

From the sea?

I mentioned air, I mentioned BM, I mentioned under the sea and from the sea. You are the one that fixated on naval option. One of many. I said before air seems viable. Navy being second option since US and NATO ships are still in Red and Arabian Sea.

Well I say there is a big difference between Saudis invading a neighbour and Isreal, a tactical air power centric country 1700km away from Yemen, attacking Yemen

Yes you would be right if the year was 2023 BC. But it is not.

F-35C can fly more than 1000 miles, thus depending on speed 1200-1700 km can be covered very very quickly.

So some propaganda strikes can be done fairly quickly.

I said they can do token strikes but it won't have any impact. The point is Israel cannot deter Houthi missile strikes given lack of militarily meaningful options for retaliation

Until Houthi Missile strikes cause actual damage, it is a nuisance more than anything. Cost wise, Uncle Sam will foot the bill.

Their subs likely carry < 10 such missiles per submarine and some of them will be carrying nuclear warheads

It doesn’t matter if it could hold 100. The whole point of this operation is propaganda, not shock and awe. They are doing enough of that in Gaza.

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719541851827708022

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719485395304362417

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719423624896000484

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719508317054132387

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1719193106866745389

 

[thesaint]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1717426291274571906

 

[HGV]

Useful strain how? I have asked you this multiple times.

I already explained 100 times

1) diversion of military resources to the south --> less radars / ABM systems to face the north or east --> more vulnerable to POTENTIAL missile attacks on those fronts

2) constant monitoring for drones / cruise missiles requires significant air force hours / cost in the south, reducing amount of air force assets available on other fronts

3) symbolic solidarity with Palestinians being genocided, can boost morale of those fighters to know they are not alone

4) deplete ABM stocks as Israel has not many Arrow-2/3 interceptors --> making them more vulnerable to missiles from Hezbollah/Iran conflict and thus less likely to initiate wider war with those parties (there is also the cost element as each Arrow missile costs $3m ... yes USA will give them funds but if not for these Houthi strikes that $3m could go to something else but instead they have to go to replenish Arrow missiles)

5) test Iranian MRBMs against Israeli ABM systems - might reveal some weaknesses that Iran can exploit (in the future) or learn from. for starters, we never saw Arrow missiles in combat until now, Israel probably didn't imagine their first use would be to intercept ballistic missiles from Yemen 1700km away

6) economic / military / morale damage - so far we have only seen 4 attacks and they have been getting better each time, there is a good chance that over a more sustained campaign (e.g. 2-5 Toufans + 4-10 Qods-4s + 10-20 Shahed-136 per day) some will get through and cause damage in Eilat. Houthis will continue to refine their techniques and methods and who knows what they will have access to in the future

7) as a side note, Israel lacks the ability to prevent or deter these attacks, so they are a low-risk method to try to extract some cost from Israel

it's not game changing and the military value is obviously low overall but it has some positives for Iran. no need to go in circles on the rest of the points

 

[Stryker1982]

Useful strain how? I have asked you this multiple times. Other than wasting interceptors that US tax payers will pay for, what usefulness is there? If HZ and Iran don’t join there is no true usefulness.

Same as when US bombs a couple warehouses in Syria against Iran backed legions. Does nothing.



Yes and you didn’t show how many CMs they fired in relation to BMs. Do you know what “mostly” means? If 600 CMs fired = mostly in relation to 430 BMs.

Also you refused to acknowledged that the amount you cite (if even true) was over 8 years of war. Coming out to slightly more than 55 missiles a year or less than 5 ballistic missiles a month.

Again most of those were SRBM, not missiles with 2000KM range so it’s irrelevant to correlate to how many Houthi’s can fire towards Israel this time around.

Lastly, if Houthi’s fired 430 BMs at Saudi Arabia and its few major cities that this desert country’s does have didn’t end up looking like the surface of the moon, then that would suggest that the Patriot intercepted the vast majority of them. No?

So which story you want to lead with?

• Option A) 430 BMs fired, but strangely not many got thru nor did Saudi Arabia run out of interceptors.
• Option B) Saudi Arabia was lying about the amount of ballistic missiles fired by Houthis

Apparently there is no defined objective to this strategy. Other than wasting US taxpayer money.



A BIG IF and as I demonstrated above. 5 missiles a month isn’t going to overwhelm their missile shield inventory. 5 missiles a week probably wouldn’t either. So as I said earlier, the amount of missiles is not significant enough at this point.


I mentioned air, I mentioned BM, I mentioned under the sea and from the sea. You are the one that fixated on naval option. One of many. I said before air seems viable. Navy being second option since US and NATO ships are still in Red and Arabian Sea.



Yes you would be right if the year was 2023 BC. But it is not.

F-35C can fly more than 1000 miles, thus depending on speed 1200-1700 km can be covered very very quickly.

So some propaganda strikes can be done fairly quickly.



Until Houthi Missile strikes cause actual damage, it is a nuisance more than anything. Cost wise, Uncle Sam will foot the bill.




It doesn’t matter if it could hold 100. The whole point of this operation is propaganda, not shock and awe. They are doing enough of that in Gaza.

Just alittle note, Saudi Arabia did run out of interceptors or ran dangerously low.

AnsarAllah will probably continue launches of various systems for the next few months to keep Israel busy during its ground war, and deplete some of their interceptors which would be a wise thing to do since HZ intervention will be unlikely for the time being.