Ceylal
ELITE MEMBER
- Joined
- Nov 28, 2012
- Messages
- 8,577
- Reaction score
- -7
- Country
- Location
Iran vs Saudi Arabia: the Saud in difficulties
© AP Photo / Hasan Jamali
The world is watching closely the current tensions between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Wahhabi Saudi kingdom. With careful because everything is what is geopolitically related to the Middle East can not lack of interest, knowing the enormous strategic interests in this region, not just regional powers.
Furthermore, anyone who knows the forces and interests defended by each other perfectly know that the Iranian-Saudi tensions began much earlier. Today, these tensions do that arriving to a new climax.
The attempts of both countries to strengthen their regional influence actually not new.Already during the Cold War and after the Islamic Revolution, Iran on one side and Saudi Arabia (one of the main official US allies in the region and semi-official Israel at the same time) to the other, had radically different visions for the future as well regional and even global.
The arms sale to Saudi Arabia to be the first to say "no" in the West?
Now to return to the current tensions.Tensions soared after running Riyadh by a senior Saudi Shi'a cleric, Nimr al-Nimr Baqr already exasperating high conflict, including due to a completely different approach in the Syrian conflict with Tehran supporting Moscow and Beijing the legitimate government of Damascus. Riyadh and Doha openly supporting Salafi terrorist groups operating in Syria, and in Iraq.
What you should remember is that Saudi Arabia actually playing with fire by pushing Tehran to the conflict, for the indirect time. So should mention the reasons why Saudi Arabia would have everything to lose if she continued to exacerbate tensions with Iran.
First, militarily. Although the budget for defense is considerably higher Saudi side (in the TOP 5 of the ranking of countries for military spending and over 10% of GDP allocated to the defense), in the opinion of many experts in the field (Russian as Western), in case of a hypothetical direct confrontation, the Wahhabi kingdom would have little chances against the Persian nation. One of the reasons for this, efficiency completely different Iranian and Saudi side. If the Iranian armed forces are actually considered among the best in the region (in the opinion of the Israelis and US citizens), Saudi Arabia despite its appetites, is mostly associated to the country under US military protection. Moreover, the Iranian elite troops in Syria and fighting alongside the Syrian army and the Lebanese Shiite movement Hezbollah against terrorist groups Salafis have proven its effectiveness in resisting until today, despite the enormous resources dumped by the West and the Gulf countries (including Saudi Arabia, of course) in order to topple President Bashar al-Assad. Since the intervention of the Russian military aviation, a now even more obvious efficiency.
US Senator: Arab League should involve Moscow in the fight against IE
Saudi coast, direct intervention of the Saudi armed forces in Yemen, in order to stop the Shiite Houthi rebels, has virtually nothing gave strategically, if not huge civilian casualties among the Yemeni people, Besides the losses recognized by many humanitarian organizations, but very few mentioned by the mainstream media. Moreover, the Houthis do not seem ready to back facing the same massive bombing Saudi and UAE. Like what, although Saudi Arabia is "champion" to cut off the heads (even more than Daech according to statistics), real war side, it is still far capabilities of Iran. Secondly, and this is also the opinion of many experts, the US, main ally of Saud, seem less and less interested (at least for now) to follow Saudi Arabia in its military ambitions and seek new tensions with Iran.
Second important point: Saudi Shia community which is between 10 and 15% of the population. A community that is radicalized in view both of the execution of prominent Shiite cleric, who was also very popular among young people, as the Saudi policy towards religious minorities in general. Not to mention that the neighbor Bahrain, another oil monarchy, led by a certain Hamed bin Isa al-Khalifa (pro-Saudi and Sunni) but with a population almost ¾ Shiite, is already facing violent clashes, like what has already happened in 2011 when the Shiite majority is largely descended into the streets to demonstrate against the discrimination suffered. At the time, it is precisely the Saudi army had to intervene to save his Bahraini ally of the wrath of his own people. Besides demonstrations also that the Western media have paid much less attention to those in Syria, including the violence used by the Bahraini and Saudi forces to quell the revolt, we understand why. Let. In any case, the anger of the Shi'ite population in the oil monarchies golfistes can be seriously felt at any time.
Arab League condemns the actions of Iran
Another point just as important, if not more. This is the solidarity observed by many Sunni Muslims with regard to Iran and harsh criticism expressed about Saudi policy. Indeed, in countries with a Sunni majority, particularly in North Africa and the Maghreb specifically, if the public are analyzed, it is clear that the sympathies are far from the Saudi side. Especially because Iranian officials, as indeed the leader of Hezbollah, were able to find the right words to avoid stoking a conflict Shiite / Sunni, limiting itself to accuse Saudi Arabia and directly for their Saud crimes. This is perhaps also the reason why the Saud currently a large lobbying and pressure in the mainly Sunni country to push them to officially criticize Iran or even suspend diplomatic relations, as have already done some countries.It is true that the Wahhabi kingdom still has the financial means to reinforce the "solidarity" from the leaders of some Muslim countries with dollars, but people side, the situation is different. Moreover, a country like the United Arab Emirates, one of the main allies of Saudi Arabia, despite the "condemnations" voiced against Iran after the attack on the Saudi Embassy in the Iranian capital , is still not gone to cut diplomatic ties, is simply limited to a reduction of the embassy staff.
Last point. Given that the most serious decline in oil prices, Saudi Arabia will probably soon have the means to match its ambitions. Many budget expenditures are reduced as such in the kingdom right now. Of course, Iran is also a major oil country is not spared by this price drop. Far from there. The only difference is that Iran is approaching the end of sanctions imposed against him previously, because of its nuclear program. With the end of the sanctions, Iran hopes to attract many investments coming from everywhere.Given this situation, Iran's allies such as Russia and China are already strengthening their positions on the Iranian market. A market for recall of more than 80 million people.All this will give Iran more weight not only in the global oil market, but usually in different economic spheres. Saudi Arabia would do so much better to stand tile, instead of looking for a serious confrontation with Iran. A confrontation that the second is much more likely to win.
Iran vs Arabie saoudite : les Saoud en difficultés
