Informative analysis on Shaheen II 1500 KM range

[Assault Rifle]

The same institute also claims Agni-V has a maximum range of 8,000 km and Brahmos Blk.3 can attack targets 600 km away in a Hi-Hi configuration.

 

[Wolfhound]

why cant we just believe that 2750 is its actual range and it's neither overstated or understated

 

[The Deterrent]

@The Deterrent @HRK @Oscar @ares @Manticore @MilSpec @sancho @balixd @syedali73

Analysis is done by Indians. Since the authors of the analysis didn't took Pakistan ABM avoidance upgrades in consideration or they didn't know about , they assumed/supposed several things wrong

As per the analysis of authors, Missile was launched in lofted trajectory hence the 1500 Km range, The nominal range of missile is 2100 KM aprox. Read the full analysis it's quite interesting.

http://isssp.in/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Shaheen-II-Nov_13_2014_Launch_Analysis.pdf


If @HRK analysis of Shaheen III being launched in lofted trajectory is correct, The nominal range of Shaheen III could be 500 KM more than what it was stated

I have gone through this report before, and although they put a great effort in the analysis, some of it is incorrect and based on unverified facts.

First is the claim of change in physical parameters of the missile in the 2014 launch. They contradicted themselves, because it was a training launch, and it makes no sense to have a launch of a previously un-tested system conducted by the strategic forces command.

Second is the imagery analysis of the launch site. While I do praise their effort in finally locating it correctly and putting it online, I did spot some errors. For example, fuel/container trucks/trailers are mistakenly identified as TELs. It is a test site, not an operational base. Furthermore, the construction of a new launch pad is misinterpreted as being done for Shaheen-II's most recent test, as it had been tested before many times into the waters, obviously from the same location. It makes no sense to assume that only after that recent Ghauri fiasco Pakistan decided to start testing from a shore-based facility, as it has existed since the early 2000s.
They should've rather concluded that the construction of a newer and bigger launch pad hints towards the development of a new system requiring such platform.

Thirdly, the assumption that there was perhaps some technical issue which caused Pakistan to test the system 6.5 years later. Thats absurd, since the missile was extensively tested before being put into service, and the latest launch was also a training one. One can assume that it hints towards completion of a batch's production or constitution of a new strategic missile group.

Fourth, the assumption that the decrease in range is because of insertion of a PSAC module in the ReV. Thats wrong, because Pakistan has being deploying PSAC since Shaheen-I, and we also have close-up photos from a 2005 launch showing possible side-mounted thrusters aboard the ReV.

Lastly, in my opinion the probability of Shaheen-II's original design being inefficient is higher than it being modified recently.....to have decreased range. It simply never made 2000 km.

 

[kaku1]

@The Deterrent You have any knowledge of MARV and MIRV development?

And if there is, then it goes to new missile (like A6, specially designing going on for MIRV) or it attached with current Shaheen series?

 

[Bilal.]

@The Deterrent but you use to say SII has 2000 km range...Plus how come shaheen IA can achieve 900 Km while the much larger and based on dame technology base can only achieve 1500Km?

 

[The Deterrent]

@The Deterrent You have any knowledge of MARV and MIRV development?

And if there is, then it goes to new missile (like A6, specially designing going on for MIRV) or it attached with current Shaheen series?

MaRV may not be on the table for now, but MIRVs are.

That is a very good question. What would you do if you were cash-strapped and had little time?

 

[Bratva]

MaRV may not be on the table for now, but MIRVs are.

That is a very good question. What would you do if you were cash-strapped and had little time?

Upgrade Shaheen to Shaheen 1 A ? Considering gape of 2008-2012.

 

[The Deterrent]

@The Deterrent but you use to say SII has 2000 km range...Plus how come shaheen IA can achieve 900 Km while the much larger and based on dame technology base can only achieve 1500Km?

I did, I tried to undermine the range as much as I could with official figures.
From a close analysis of the video, both Shaheen-IA and Shaheen-III exhibit greater acceleration. Being large doesn't matters, it also gets the system heavier. No, its NOT the same technology base, Shaheen-IA & III seem to have more advanced solid-fuel.

Upgrade Shaheen to Shaheen 1 A ? Considering gape of 2008-2012

Precisely, thats a good example.

 

[kaku1]

That is a very good question. What would you do if you were cash-strapped and had little time?

But did it possible to attach MIRV system with missile which is designed for a single RV ( low throwaway weight)? Didnt it require a new missile?

 

[shaheenmissile]

But did it possible to attach MIRV system with missile which is designed for a single RV ( low throwaway weight)? Didnt it require a new missile?

Current series of Shaheen missiles are too narrow for MARV or MIRV.
Saheen 2 dia is 1.5 meters and normally MIRV is mounted on missiles of 2 meter dia and above.

Since Pakistan's strategic Missiles are all land based and there is no shortage of space on land,so more can be deployed and instead on MIRV a salvo launch may have same effect.

 

[The Deterrent]

But did it possible to attach MIRV system with missile which is designed for a single RV ( low throwaway weight)? Didnt it require a new missile?

Shaheen-III in its present form cannot deliver MIRVs.
Lets wait and see what solution they come up with. As they say, "Were there's a will, there's a way".

 

[Wolfhound]

Current series of Shaheen missiles are too narrow for MARV or MIRV.
Saheen 2 dia is 1.5 meters and normally MIRV is mounted on missiles of 2 meter dia and above.

Since Pakistan's strategic Missiles are all land based and there is no shortage of space on land,so more can be deployed and instead on MIRV a salvo launch may have same effect.

But for that to happen we would need alot of missiles we dont have, even if we do that we would exhaust our supply

Shaheen-III in its present form cannot deliver MIRVs.
Lets wait and see what solution they come up with. As they say, "Were there's a will, there's a way".

Or maybe it can

 

[PWFI]

MaRV may not be on the table for now, but MIRVs are.

That is a very good question. What would you do if you were cash-strapped and had little time?

Hi,
What's the difference between MaRV and MIRVs?--thanks.

 

[Taygibay]

just a random question i have ... do you know any other missile , that have range like S3 ?? 2750 km ... it doesnt make any kind of sense ... it could be 2700, or 2800 ....
can it be like that on 2750 km range the Missile hit the target ... more accurately

To take into account @The Deterrent 's analysis, one could believe that the warhead's parameters have changed too.
A heavier load diminishes range ( and so would a different re-entry mechanism ).

@PWFI MaRV is for a general control of all re-entry vehicles
whereas MiRV is for Independent control of each vehicle, i.e. better / more precise individual targeting.

GN all, Tay.

 

[chhota bheem]

Hi,
What's the difference between MaRV and MIRVs?--thanks.

Marv is a maneuverable war head,it can change the path after reentry,it will pitch up after rentry and glide to the target,so making it difficult to intercept,as it dsnt follow the usual path of a ballistic missile which is a parabola.

Mirv ,has multiple war heads fitted on a misslie and they seperate at different times to fall at different locations.
I think thats the simplest way to put it.