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Industry raises red flag over imminent oil crisis

Kabira

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ISLAMABAD: The oil industry has raised the red flag over imminent closure of local refineries and related inability of the oil companies to provide enough fuels for smooth operations of aviation and security aircraft.

In an “SOS-Rush to Desk” to the petroleum division, the Oil Companies Advisory Council (OCAC) — an umbrella body of around three dozen refineries and oil marketing companies — said the refineries had been forced to continuously scale down production now reaching a point of a complete shutdown and impacting jet fuels.

The oil industry has been struggling for a sixth week to cope with setback caused by closure of oil-based power plants in October.

The jet fuels at almost all the airports had reached critical stage. The throughput reduction was “severely impacting the supply of all other petroleum products. The impact is especially pronounced on the availability of JP-1 for the airports and of JP-8 to the Air Force”, wrote the OCAC to petroleum secretary Sultan Sikandar Raja, who is on an extended joyride trip to Singapore and Dubai to attend board meetings of an oil company and a refinery.

Informed sources said the largest fuel supplier and state-run PSO was already advising its clients of aircraft operators to fly in with additional fuel and keep reliance for refuelling in Pakistan to a bare minimum. It has ordered two additional vessels of jet fuels on an urgent basis, but their arrival would be due by this weekend.

On the weekend, the OCAC reported that Pakistan Refinery Limited (PRL) had been forced to “recycle” furnace oil to keep its machines functioning but would be forced to shut down on Monday and impact jet fuel to Karachi airport. The country’s largest refinery – Byco – remains closed for a third week.

The PSO had last week told the government that its upcountry airports – Lahore, Islamabad, Sialkot, Multan, Faisalabad and Peshawar – were on a dry-out position and the aviation authorities could be compelled to declare NOTAM – a situation where a Notice to Airmen – is issued to alert aircraft pilots of potential hazards along a flight route or at a location that could affect the safety of the flight.

A senior official at the petroleum division said that despite its sincere efforts in consultation with the oil industry, the power division was not forthcoming with furnace oil consumptions. A power division official said the electricity demand had gone down in winter and was being met by cheaper plants on the economic merit order – hydro, natural gas, imported re-gasified liquid natural gas (RLNG), nuclear and coal.

The petroleum division official said the problem of very low or zero usage of local furnace oil persisted and, unless addressed, would lead to product shortfalls to the market.

“When a Refinery operates, it produces the whole range of product, from LPG, petrol, kerosene, diesel, Jet Fuels (JP-1 and JP-8) and residual furnace oil (RFO). With RFO not being used, storages have filled up, forcing the refineries to reduce throughput to the bare minimum. Critically needed volumes of Jet Fuel (JP-1 for the airports and JP-8 for the Air Force) are already under threat,” he said.

The OCAC deplored that despite best efforts and a series of meetings with senior officials of the power division, no respite is forthcoming to the refineries to keep them operational. The PRL reported that this low rate of furnace oil lifting of around only 400-500 tonnes per day had forced it to recycle RFO to crude tanks.

“The other refineries also are looking at very low ullages in their RFO storages, and operating at sub-optimal throughput including NRL which, too, will not be able to meet its jet fuel commitments to both Karachi airport as well as to the Air Force. ARL too will not be able to supply the additional jet volumes demanded by the airports and the Air Force and Parco”, the OCAC noted.

It deplored that Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi had ordered during a meeting on Wednesday for close coordination between power and petroleum divisions to find a solution. “Despite regular attempts and meetings with the power division by (OCAC and petroleum division), we see no understanding of the situation by the concerned nor an appreciation of the fact that shortage of petroleum supplies to the market are imminent.”

Officials explained that refineries together were responsible for 30 per cent of the furnace oil supplies or around 300,000 tonnes per month while PSO is responsible for around 66pc of the total furnace oil supplies, with other importers catering for the remainder.

The oil industry also advised creation of a proper forum for planning of energy supplies to the power sector given the fact that this was the second time this year that supply crisis had occurred “purely because of the lack of planning and coordination on the part of the national power control centre and the power sector” that put the entire country’s oil supply chain at risk.

The OCAC argued that the forum should comprise the representatives of the NPCC, Wapda, the ministry of energy, power division and petroleum division and PSO and be tasked with the planning for energy supply of the country for the next three months. “This will remove the ad hoc decision-making which is currently taking place and will protect the supply chain.

The permanent solution, said an official, lied with understanding of the problem by all concerned, including the ministries and divisions that could work out a proper plan for RFO use to ensure that the already imported RFO volumes were utilised along with production from local refineries for their optimal capacity utilisation.

The sources said the defence authorities had written a series of letters to the quarters concerned to keep a close watch on fuel supplies required for the Air Force in view of depleting stocks. Defence authorities are reported to have expressed serious concerns over the situation at a last week product review meeting and warned of serious consequences.

The problem emerged after the authorities concerned were directed by the prime minister office on Oct 27 to shut down furnace oil-based plants even though the power sector authorities had ordered fresh imports on Oct 25. As a result, the furnace oil storages were topped up, affecting production of other petroleum products.

Published in Dawn, December 11th, 2017
 
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This Dawn article is confusing, it sound like closing oil based power plants is actually bad thing. Anyway another mafia trying to held Pakistan at ransom. Gov shouldn't accept their demands of buying oil for power plants.
 
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@Kabira

Kabira bhai,

Sounds suspicious. If FO is not being picked up, it can always be exported. Unless the profit model of the refineries was based on being able to sell FOs at an exorbitant rate to domestic customers.

Regards
 
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Refineries should consider deep refining philosophy (Fluidized Catalytic Cracker combined with Delayed Coker/ Vis-breaker & Hydrogenation units) to reduce production of heavy oils... Overall heavy oil demand in the whole world is spiraling downward trend... Now a days, its important to have operation flexibility in the refinery configurations....
 
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@hembo

You are correct- complexity (correct?) is the way to go. The problem I suppose is that many Pak refineries are too small or too old to be upgraded. But I understand a few new large refineries are being created, post their implementation these plants should be closed down.

I wish @niaz sahib would pop up to answer.

Regards
 
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Balochistan and Gwadar region will establish one of the largest oil refine and petrochemical industries in South Asia, just stay tuned.
 
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This Dawn article is confusing, it sound like closing oil based power plants is actually bad thing. Anyway another mafia trying to held Pakistan at ransom. Gov shouldn't accept their demands of buying oil for power plants.
Most oil refineries were encouraged by the government to expand their capacity a few years ago. The government even instructed these companies to create special equity reserve accounts in their balance sheets for capital investment in expansion projects.

Now when all this expansion has taken place, the government says we don't need it. I mean what the hell is this policy? This adhocism has destroyed our industry. You literally force them to invest and then you make a u-turn and say that we don't need it.
 
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“Local refinery shutdowns seem inevitable, as it has come to our knowledge that other oil marketing companies, which pick up around 70% of local refineries’ fuel oil production, are also failing to lift the product to put pressure on the government

Here is why.

The gradual displacement of fuel oil in Pakistan’s power sector seems inevitable, as more natural gas becomes available through rising LNG imports.

The economics make sense. The use of fuel oil in electricity generation as a result of Pakistan’s decade-long gas shortage has cost the government an extra $1 billion to $2 billion annually,

Use of diesel and fuel oil in power generation peaked at 387,140 b/d in fiscal year 2014-15 (July-June), according to OCAC data, before falling 1% in fiscal 2015-16 following the start-up of Pakistan’s first LNG import terminal in March 2015.

LNG imports are expected to grow exponentially, as more terminals are ready to start operations, with Platts Analytics forecasting demand to reach more than 16 million mt/year by 2022.

Pakistan LNG estimates Pakistan’s unconstrained demand will hit 30 million mt/year, or 4 Bcf/day of gas equivalent, by 2022, which is half of the country’s total gas demand projection of 8 Bcf/d for that year, according to government estimates.

With domestic gas production faltering and pipeline import projects still uncertain, the country’s dependency on LNG imports to tackle its gas and energy crisis is unlikely to fade away, especially since global oversupply and low LNG prices are resulting in better supply terms for customers.

In layman's terms

Oil mafia isn't happy and trying everything in their power to stop upgrade from oil to gas.
 
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@hembo

You are correct- complexity (correct?) is the way to go. The problem I suppose is that many Pak refineries are too small or too old to be upgraded. But I understand a few new large refineries are being created, post their implementation these plants should be closed down.

I wish @niaz sahib would pop up to answer.

Regards


Latest data I have for Pakistan fuel products impors is for the Ocober 2017 (metric tons)

High Speed Diesel 10 ships 357,324 MT


Jet 2 ships 20,648 MT


High Sulphur Fuel Oil 10 ships 542,536 MT

Low Sulphur Fuel Oil 1ship 61,124 MT


Gasoline 24 ships 456,848 MT

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total 47 ships 1,438,480 MT




Let us compare January/October 2017 imports with January/October 2016 imports. ( metric tons)




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

High Speed Diesel (Jan to October 2017) 3,491,169 (Jan to October 2016) 2,881,388

Jet ( Jan to October 2017) 151,557 (Jan to October 2016) 109,272

High Sulphur Fuel Oil (Jan to October 2017) 4,967,918 (Jan to October 2016) 5,535,548

Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (Jan to October 2017) 400,609 (Jan to October 2016) 676,573

Gasoline (Jan to October 2017) 4,319,768 (Jan to October 2016) 3,949,621

Low Sulphur Diesel (Jan to October 2017) 10,715 (Jan to October 2016) 10,432

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Jan to October 2017 13,341,696 Jan to October 2016 13,160,834


One can see that Pakistan imported less fuel oil (furnace oil in local parlance) implying conversion of fuel oil power plants to gas /LNG. There was substantial increase in gasoline import, must be due to more cars on the road.

Problem is that most of Pakistani oil refineries are old hydro skimming units with no upgrading facilities. Only modern refinery is PARCO which has Fluidised Cat Cracker, thus able to upgrade heavy bottom fraction. State of the art refineries (none exists in Pakistan) produce no fuel oil at all.

I know Pakistan Refinery quite well because Esso held 18% share in it when it was first built and I was nominated to look after Esso's interest in the PRL.

The refinery came on stream in October 1962 and except for some de-bottlenecking; no investment has been made by the shareholders since. The refinery has no hydro-desulfurizing facilities and uses the hydrogen produced in the Platformer (Reforming unit) to remove the sulphur from the Naphtha feed of the Platformer itself. (Reforming process which converts naphtha into gasoline produces Hydrogen as by-product). PRL gas oil (diesel) has close to 1% Sulphur.

Sulphur level in automotive diesel dropped to 0.5% max in the 1970s and to 500ppm (0.05%) inthe 1990s in most Asian countries. Why didn’t PRL management invest in upgrading facilities to keep their refinery up to date?

Others refiners such as owners of BYCO imported written off refinery from California and the Al Ghurair group purchased written off ex- Esso Naples Refinery from KPC. Such refineries cannot compete with modern refineries of the Arab Gulf and / or the Reliance refinery of the Ambanis.

Refinery owners operate completely amortised units / old refineries purchased as scrap expecting Pakistan government to keep them profitable. I have therefore very little sympathy for the Pakistani refiners, who like typical ‘Seths’; want to earn millions without investing.

Pakistan imports crude oil feed for the refineries anyway; Pakistan can instead import jet fuel from the Arab Gulf and at a cheaper cost than most Pak refiners can produce.

In my view the GOP must persist with the policies that are in the greater interest of Pakistan and the Pakistanis and should not worry about lining pockets of the refinery shareholders.
 
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Most oil refineries were encouraged by the government to expand their capacity a few years ago. The government even instructed these companies to create special equity reserve accounts in their balance sheets for capital investment in expansion projects.

Now when all this expansion has taken place, the government says we don't need it. I mean what the hell is this policy? This adhocism has destroyed our industry. You literally force them to invest and then you make a u-turn and say that we don't need it.

2 years ago all of CPEC power plants were fully underconstruction. I doubt gov told them to increase capacity when they were supposed to be shut down and we knew about this for years.
 
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@niaz

Niaz sb,

I suspected something of that sort. But tell me, sir, who owns most of the refining capacities in Pak. Is it the public sector, domestic private sector; or foreign enterprises?

Regards
 
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@niaz

Niaz sb,

I suspected something of that sort. But tell me, sir, who owns most of the refining capacities in Pak. Is it the public sector, domestic private sector; or foreign enterprises?

Regards

Things may have changed, but to the best of my knowledge majority shares (60%) of the, PRL was owned jointly by Esso, Shell, Caltex with 40% share by the public.

Attock oil refinery now also owns NRL . Understand majority owner is an Arab businessman called Ghaith Pharaon. PARCO is owned 60% by GOP & 40% by the Gov’t of Abu Dhabi.
BYCO has private Pakistani owners & Indus are privately owned.


As I understand it, the problem is not as simple as stated in the article or simply related to the furnace oil power plants shutting down. A lot of the problem is due to the infamous ‘Circular debt.’ There already have been many posts about the circular debt of the power companies.

Quote

"Circular debt indicates a situation when a business concern is unable to pay its liabilities due to non recovery of its receivables, "the sources added. Pakistan Electric Power Company (Pepco) which had been wound up during PPP tenure but still exists with an MD, and an Additional Secretary, claims that since receivables still hover around Rs 650 billion, the actual circular debt is not more than Rs 200 billion.

Unquote


https://fp.brecorder.com/2017/08/20170803204377/


In the ‘nutshell’, power companies have no money to pay PSO because ‘Revenue Receipts’ are less than production expenses. PSO has therefore no money to but furnace oil produced by the oil refineries. Refineries in turn have furnace oil piled up and les money to buy crude oil feed.

Reasons of circular debt are well-known as well as well researched, use. One of the contributing factors is that average cost of power produced is less than the cost charged to the public; on top of that many of my country men, including gov’t organizations don’t like to pay for the power they consume.

Quote

With the power purchaser showing no sign of making the overdue payments, at least 13 IPPs were said to have started the process of invoking sovereign guarantees for their bills recovery


Unquote
https://www.dawn.com/news/1318680

Pakistani evade taxes hence tax revenue is less than expenses thus can't subsidize power and when GOP raises electricity tariff & petroleum product prices, everyone screams blue murder. Who is really to blame, honestly speaking everyone?
 
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