Indonesia Turning Away From ASEAN?
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A guide to Indonesia's trajectory for next 5 years
Farish A Noor
RSIS December 27, 2014 1:00 am
Indonesian soldiers line up during a security drill prior the Christmas and New Year holiday season, in Denpasar, Bali. Indonesia has increased security for the Christmas and New Year holidays.
The country's State Intelligence Agency reveals its thoughts on how Southeast Asia's largest economy sees its role in the Asean region and the global arena
As Indonesia - now under the leadership of President Joko Widodo and Vice President Jusuf Kalla - looks to the future and reassesses its place and role in the Asean region and the global arena, the country's leaders and major stakeholders have begun to forecast the likely trajectory that it will take in the years to come.
The publication of the book "Toward 2014-2019: Strengthening Indonesia in a Changing World", by the Indonesian State Intelligence Agency (BIN), provides an interesting and important insider's look at how Indonesia sees its future and what it wishes to achieve over the next five years. The fact that the book was written in English suggests that this is a text meant for consideration beyond Indonesia: Here it is clear that the Indonesian technocratic elite want their opinions to be known abroad, and taken into account.
Initiated by State Intelligence Agency chief Lt-General (Ret) Marciano Norman and edited by Muhammad AS Hikam, former minister for research and technology, the book brings together the research of several dozen prominent Indonesian specialists and academics, as well as the findings of many focus group discussions.
Starting from a global perspective, it begins by offering an Indonesian assessment of the state of global affairs. Citing examples such as the Ukraine crisis and the conflict in Syria, the authors argue that "old world powers" are still competing on the global geo-strategic stage.
Recognizing that the United States pivotal role as the only global power is being challenged, the authors look at Russia, China and Europe as other sources of power, and argue that Indonesia now exists in a more complex world where alternative developmental models and paradigms present themselves.
Warming to China
It is in this context of an increasingly plural and complex world that Indonesia seeks to find its niche, and align itself with like-minded powers: The authors note that China - unlike the US - happens to be a major power that does not impress its value-system on other allied countries, and is able to accept diversity and difference in political-developmental models. Conversely, the West's promotion of democracy in situations such as the Arab Spring uprisings has not yielded clear results.
Between rhetoric about democratisation and real material benefits such as foreign investment, the authors seem more inclined towards the latter, and note that China's investments in Asia and Africa have led to tangible material results. Thus despite whatever strategic-military reliance Indonesia may have had on its Western allies in the past, the authors veer in the direction of pragmatism and note that in the decades to come Indonesia's main economic partners are likely to be Asian and that the country will need to fend for itself when securing its energy, food and resources security.
What about Asean?
Conscious of the rise of new major powers, the authors argue that Asean remains relevant, but needs to "develop not only a modality of internal relations, but also a modality to accommodate the presence of major countries in the region". Again, pragmatism and national interest dominate the discussion here:
Indonesia is thankful for the peace and stability that Asean has created, but now wants the bloc to adapt to a changing global environment where major powers will begin to play a more visible role in the region, notably China which "carries on recording the highest economic growth".
In the face of these realities, and aware of Indonesia's need for investment from neighboring countries, the authors argue that Indonesia needs to promote its own economic interests first and look towards securing its food, energy and resource security in the future, as it will be one of the most important resource bases in the world. While Indonesia needs to maintain its friendly links with neighbors and allies, the "protection of the national interest among other countries' businesses" is emphasized.
Indonesia's core interests
The authors accept the fact that Indonesia will face unforeseen developments that are new to the country.
The country's "Threat Map" is wide: the Internet revolution, increased urbanisation, rise of local ethnic and religious forms of communal solidarity and the threat of religious extremism all pose challenges to the maintenance and perpetuation of the idea of a singular Indonesian republic.
Holding back these centrifugal forces can only be accomplished by a singular state apparatus that caters and fulfils the rising demands and expectations of an increasingly demanding political public.
It is to that end that the authors insist that securing Indonesia's economic needs is paramount, for Indonesia must achieve economic take-off and be a self-sustaining state for it to remain together. Indonesia must not only overcome the middle-income trap but its political elite need to ensure that its wealth remains in the hands of Indonesians, and not predatory foreign capital.
It is in that context that the maritime policy, the agricultural policy and the energy policy are discussed and linked to the broader goal of nation-building and state-power consolidation.
All in all, the release of this book is both timely and important. It is timely as it comes at the beginning of the Jokowi-Kalla period of leadership, and gives us some insight into the worldview, values and ambitions of the country's technocratic elite.
It is also important as it reminds us that the policy direction that this new government will take is likely to be focused on domestic needs, putting national interest above all else.
Farish A Noor is an associate professor at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
A guide to Indonesia's trajectory for next 5 years - The Nation
Farish A Noor
RSIS December 27, 2014 1:00 am
Indonesian soldiers line up during a security drill prior the Christmas and New Year holiday season, in Denpasar, Bali. Indonesia has increased security for the Christmas and New Year holidays.
The country's State Intelligence Agency reveals its thoughts on how Southeast Asia's largest economy sees its role in the Asean region and the global arena
As Indonesia - now under the leadership of President Joko Widodo and Vice President Jusuf Kalla - looks to the future and reassesses its place and role in the Asean region and the global arena, the country's leaders and major stakeholders have begun to forecast the likely trajectory that it will take in the years to come.
The publication of the book "Toward 2014-2019: Strengthening Indonesia in a Changing World", by the Indonesian State Intelligence Agency (BIN), provides an interesting and important insider's look at how Indonesia sees its future and what it wishes to achieve over the next five years. The fact that the book was written in English suggests that this is a text meant for consideration beyond Indonesia: Here it is clear that the Indonesian technocratic elite want their opinions to be known abroad, and taken into account.
Initiated by State Intelligence Agency chief Lt-General (Ret) Marciano Norman and edited by Muhammad AS Hikam, former minister for research and technology, the book brings together the research of several dozen prominent Indonesian specialists and academics, as well as the findings of many focus group discussions.
Starting from a global perspective, it begins by offering an Indonesian assessment of the state of global affairs. Citing examples such as the Ukraine crisis and the conflict in Syria, the authors argue that "old world powers" are still competing on the global geo-strategic stage.
Recognizing that the United States pivotal role as the only global power is being challenged, the authors look at Russia, China and Europe as other sources of power, and argue that Indonesia now exists in a more complex world where alternative developmental models and paradigms present themselves.
Warming to China
It is in this context of an increasingly plural and complex world that Indonesia seeks to find its niche, and align itself with like-minded powers: The authors note that China - unlike the US - happens to be a major power that does not impress its value-system on other allied countries, and is able to accept diversity and difference in political-developmental models. Conversely, the West's promotion of democracy in situations such as the Arab Spring uprisings has not yielded clear results.
Between rhetoric about democratisation and real material benefits such as foreign investment, the authors seem more inclined towards the latter, and note that China's investments in Asia and Africa have led to tangible material results. Thus despite whatever strategic-military reliance Indonesia may have had on its Western allies in the past, the authors veer in the direction of pragmatism and note that in the decades to come Indonesia's main economic partners are likely to be Asian and that the country will need to fend for itself when securing its energy, food and resources security.
What about Asean?
Conscious of the rise of new major powers, the authors argue that Asean remains relevant, but needs to "develop not only a modality of internal relations, but also a modality to accommodate the presence of major countries in the region". Again, pragmatism and national interest dominate the discussion here:
Indonesia is thankful for the peace and stability that Asean has created, but now wants the bloc to adapt to a changing global environment where major powers will begin to play a more visible role in the region, notably China which "carries on recording the highest economic growth".
In the face of these realities, and aware of Indonesia's need for investment from neighboring countries, the authors argue that Indonesia needs to promote its own economic interests first and look towards securing its food, energy and resource security in the future, as it will be one of the most important resource bases in the world. While Indonesia needs to maintain its friendly links with neighbors and allies, the "protection of the national interest among other countries' businesses" is emphasized.
Indonesia's core interests
The authors accept the fact that Indonesia will face unforeseen developments that are new to the country.
The country's "Threat Map" is wide: the Internet revolution, increased urbanisation, rise of local ethnic and religious forms of communal solidarity and the threat of religious extremism all pose challenges to the maintenance and perpetuation of the idea of a singular Indonesian republic.
Holding back these centrifugal forces can only be accomplished by a singular state apparatus that caters and fulfils the rising demands and expectations of an increasingly demanding political public.
It is to that end that the authors insist that securing Indonesia's economic needs is paramount, for Indonesia must achieve economic take-off and be a self-sustaining state for it to remain together. Indonesia must not only overcome the middle-income trap but its political elite need to ensure that its wealth remains in the hands of Indonesians, and not predatory foreign capital.
It is in that context that the maritime policy, the agricultural policy and the energy policy are discussed and linked to the broader goal of nation-building and state-power consolidation.
All in all, the release of this book is both timely and important. It is timely as it comes at the beginning of the Jokowi-Kalla period of leadership, and gives us some insight into the worldview, values and ambitions of the country's technocratic elite.
It is also important as it reminds us that the policy direction that this new government will take is likely to be focused on domestic needs, putting national interest above all else.
Farish A Noor is an associate professor at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
A guide to Indonesia's trajectory for next 5 years - The Nation
Excellent points to be addressed by Jakarta, and with the threat of ever-increasing fisheries threats, Indonesia , as an archipelagic state, must secure its maritime borders not only from foreign fisheries threat(s), but from piracy activity. In order for this to be done, Indonesia has to increase its naval presence, and prerequisite to this is a powerful government -- and -- increased defense spending. Best of luck to our partners in Indonesia; we Japanese stand with our friends.
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Jokowi preparing Indonesia for role beyond Asean?
Emirza Adi Syailendra
RSIS January 10, 2015 1:00 am
While still president-elect in October, Widodo showed Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg around a Jakarta clothing market.
Is Asean still the cornerstone of Jakarta's foreign policy, or a diplomatic formality?
Asean centrality has always been a dominant theme in Indonesian foreign policy. Despite deficiencies of Asean in providing Indonesia with a suitable dispute settlement mechanism with its members, Indonesia's foreign-policy makers continued to maintain their usual stance emphasising Asean centrality in its foreign policy. For example, Asean had paid little attention to Indonesia's notes of protest during its boundary dispute over the Sipadan-Ligitan with Malaysia.
Indonesia's interests have sometimes been compromised for the sake of Asean, such as its view on the adoption of a peacekeeping force within the Asean Political Security Community (APSC) framework. Nevertheless, during Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's administration (2004-2014), Asean centrality had been the main thrust of his policy of "dynamic equilibrium" that sought to promote the grouping as the main vehicle of the evolving regional architecture in the Asia Pacific region.
Jokowi's new focus
Under President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), foreign policy appears to be increasingly high profile as Jakarta seeks to tighten bilateral relations with Pacific and Indian Ocean major powers, with a heavy focus on the domestic-economic dimension. This is in opposition to the focus on multilateralism and norms promotion that were stressed during Yudhoyono's administration. How would Asean be positioned under the Jokowi government's foreign policy?
As Indonesia's global profile rises, the choices of partners are expanding but doubts have also resurfaced on whether Asean is still the bedrock of its foreign policy. With foreign policy given a high profile - in contrast to earlier predictions by some analysts that President Jokowi would be more inward-looking - it is tempting to argue that Indonesia's foreign policy priorities are shifting beyond Asean.
For example, Jokowi's new maritime doctrine of "global maritime fulcrum" has highlighted Indonesia's intention to 'Look West' in terms of deepening relations with major players in the Indian Ocean such as India and South Africa. Strengthening bilateral ties with Pacific powers is also becoming a major agenda instead of multilateralism. The emergence of a more nationalistic approach has further underscored these shifts.
According to Retno Marsudi, the new foreign minister, the current policy focus would be people-oriented. This statement was echoed by Jokowi during a discussion on the implementation of the Asean Economic Community (AEC). The president said Indonesia would not be supportive of the AEC's goal of a single market and production base by end 2015 if it puts Indonesia at a disadvantage by merely being a market for goods produced by neighbouring countries. Several other policies such as the sinking of the illegal fishing vessels in Indonesian waters have been interpreted as signals that Indonesia would not hesitate to defend its national interest at the expense of Asean.
Reframing Asean?
These emerging trends are worrying as Asean is entering a deeper phase of integration and the proactive role of Indonesia is being awaited. However, it is not unfair to oppose the view that point to several nationalistic approaches as confirming Indonesia's apparent move away from Asean. The continued commitment toward Asean with regard to the community-building process has been reasserted by the Indonesian Ambassador to Asean, Rahmat Pramono, in December 2014.
Historical trajectories have steered Indonesia's willingness to maintain the centrality of Asean. However, Indonesia has perceived Asean differently from a mere buffer zone of neutrality as in the past to a forum that is able to accommodate its bigger goal to maintain its relevance. Indonesia's ability to position itself as the main mover of Asean norms and identity has buttressed its stature as the natural leader of Asean, as acknowledged in policy circles as well as the academic literature.
For external powers, Asean is also important as the most comprehensive venue of interaction in the Asia Pacific due to its capacity to enmesh many prominent powers within its overarching structures. Perceptions of other members of Indonesian activism in norm promotion and its facilitating of dispute settlement in the region is one of the biggest factors that contribute to Indonesia's international image as the leader of Asean.
Indonesia's strategic positioning in Asean has led to an unprecedented surge of partnerships with key countries, including the United States, China, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the European Union.
Consensual leadership and its implications
However, considering the consensual nature of Asean, Indonesia has to negotiate its positions to gain the support of other members in making Asean as the main driver of the Pacific and Indian Ocean regional architecture. "Bargaining" is required in terms of providing public goods such as being at the forefront to strengthen Asean unity, working together with the member states to push for deeper integration of the institution, resolving conflicts between members in the region, and promoting norms such as human right and democracy.
The point to stress here is that Indonesia's proactive and consensual leadership in Asean will endure during Jokowi's administration. However, pragmatism will be its defining feature. A recent effort by Indonesia to push Asean as the centre of the regional architecture was its proposal to expand the Asean Chiefs of Defence Forces Informal Meeting (ACDFIM) into an ACDFIM Plus that includes counterparts from key players like the US and China in the Asia-Pacific. The proposal underscores the interest of Indonesia to expand the scope of Asean into a more inclusive and accessible forum extending to major Pacific and Indian Ocean countries.
With the present security environment in the region marked by many flashpoints, exacerbated by external pressures arising from the US-China rivalry, Indonesia is concerned about Asean's ability to speak with one voice. Considering that the benefits Indonesia gains depends on how effective it is in rallying Asean, a break in Asean unity will have implications on Indonesia's image as the first among equals.
In this regard, pragmatic shifts in Indonesia's foreign policy will be a reflection of its "free and active" foreign policy while keeping Asean centrality unbroken, harmonising interests, and making normative bargains. Indeed, this positioning is very important as a prerequisite for reaching the vision of Asean as the heart of Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regionalism - which is also an important element in the current "Global Maritime Fulcrum" strategy.
Emirza Adi Syailendra is a Research Analyst with the Indonesia Programme of the S Rajaratnam of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
Jokowi preparing Indonesia for role beyond Asean? - The Nation
Emirza Adi Syailendra
RSIS January 10, 2015 1:00 am
While still president-elect in October, Widodo showed Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg around a Jakarta clothing market.
Is Asean still the cornerstone of Jakarta's foreign policy, or a diplomatic formality?
Asean centrality has always been a dominant theme in Indonesian foreign policy. Despite deficiencies of Asean in providing Indonesia with a suitable dispute settlement mechanism with its members, Indonesia's foreign-policy makers continued to maintain their usual stance emphasising Asean centrality in its foreign policy. For example, Asean had paid little attention to Indonesia's notes of protest during its boundary dispute over the Sipadan-Ligitan with Malaysia.
Indonesia's interests have sometimes been compromised for the sake of Asean, such as its view on the adoption of a peacekeeping force within the Asean Political Security Community (APSC) framework. Nevertheless, during Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's administration (2004-2014), Asean centrality had been the main thrust of his policy of "dynamic equilibrium" that sought to promote the grouping as the main vehicle of the evolving regional architecture in the Asia Pacific region.
Jokowi's new focus
Under President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), foreign policy appears to be increasingly high profile as Jakarta seeks to tighten bilateral relations with Pacific and Indian Ocean major powers, with a heavy focus on the domestic-economic dimension. This is in opposition to the focus on multilateralism and norms promotion that were stressed during Yudhoyono's administration. How would Asean be positioned under the Jokowi government's foreign policy?
As Indonesia's global profile rises, the choices of partners are expanding but doubts have also resurfaced on whether Asean is still the bedrock of its foreign policy. With foreign policy given a high profile - in contrast to earlier predictions by some analysts that President Jokowi would be more inward-looking - it is tempting to argue that Indonesia's foreign policy priorities are shifting beyond Asean.
For example, Jokowi's new maritime doctrine of "global maritime fulcrum" has highlighted Indonesia's intention to 'Look West' in terms of deepening relations with major players in the Indian Ocean such as India and South Africa. Strengthening bilateral ties with Pacific powers is also becoming a major agenda instead of multilateralism. The emergence of a more nationalistic approach has further underscored these shifts.
According to Retno Marsudi, the new foreign minister, the current policy focus would be people-oriented. This statement was echoed by Jokowi during a discussion on the implementation of the Asean Economic Community (AEC). The president said Indonesia would not be supportive of the AEC's goal of a single market and production base by end 2015 if it puts Indonesia at a disadvantage by merely being a market for goods produced by neighbouring countries. Several other policies such as the sinking of the illegal fishing vessels in Indonesian waters have been interpreted as signals that Indonesia would not hesitate to defend its national interest at the expense of Asean.
Reframing Asean?
These emerging trends are worrying as Asean is entering a deeper phase of integration and the proactive role of Indonesia is being awaited. However, it is not unfair to oppose the view that point to several nationalistic approaches as confirming Indonesia's apparent move away from Asean. The continued commitment toward Asean with regard to the community-building process has been reasserted by the Indonesian Ambassador to Asean, Rahmat Pramono, in December 2014.
Historical trajectories have steered Indonesia's willingness to maintain the centrality of Asean. However, Indonesia has perceived Asean differently from a mere buffer zone of neutrality as in the past to a forum that is able to accommodate its bigger goal to maintain its relevance. Indonesia's ability to position itself as the main mover of Asean norms and identity has buttressed its stature as the natural leader of Asean, as acknowledged in policy circles as well as the academic literature.
For external powers, Asean is also important as the most comprehensive venue of interaction in the Asia Pacific due to its capacity to enmesh many prominent powers within its overarching structures. Perceptions of other members of Indonesian activism in norm promotion and its facilitating of dispute settlement in the region is one of the biggest factors that contribute to Indonesia's international image as the leader of Asean.
Indonesia's strategic positioning in Asean has led to an unprecedented surge of partnerships with key countries, including the United States, China, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the European Union.
Consensual leadership and its implications
However, considering the consensual nature of Asean, Indonesia has to negotiate its positions to gain the support of other members in making Asean as the main driver of the Pacific and Indian Ocean regional architecture. "Bargaining" is required in terms of providing public goods such as being at the forefront to strengthen Asean unity, working together with the member states to push for deeper integration of the institution, resolving conflicts between members in the region, and promoting norms such as human right and democracy.
The point to stress here is that Indonesia's proactive and consensual leadership in Asean will endure during Jokowi's administration. However, pragmatism will be its defining feature. A recent effort by Indonesia to push Asean as the centre of the regional architecture was its proposal to expand the Asean Chiefs of Defence Forces Informal Meeting (ACDFIM) into an ACDFIM Plus that includes counterparts from key players like the US and China in the Asia-Pacific. The proposal underscores the interest of Indonesia to expand the scope of Asean into a more inclusive and accessible forum extending to major Pacific and Indian Ocean countries.
With the present security environment in the region marked by many flashpoints, exacerbated by external pressures arising from the US-China rivalry, Indonesia is concerned about Asean's ability to speak with one voice. Considering that the benefits Indonesia gains depends on how effective it is in rallying Asean, a break in Asean unity will have implications on Indonesia's image as the first among equals.
In this regard, pragmatic shifts in Indonesia's foreign policy will be a reflection of its "free and active" foreign policy while keeping Asean centrality unbroken, harmonising interests, and making normative bargains. Indeed, this positioning is very important as a prerequisite for reaching the vision of Asean as the heart of Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regionalism - which is also an important element in the current "Global Maritime Fulcrum" strategy.
Emirza Adi Syailendra is a Research Analyst with the Indonesia Programme of the S Rajaratnam of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
Jokowi preparing Indonesia for role beyond Asean? - The Nation
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