http://en.c4defence.com/Magazine/ıssue-77/89/48-49
For those of you who like reading, this article of China White Paper published July 2019 can be an interesting reading material. We can also relate on how ASEAN regional security and balance of power are going to be played out in a future (South China Sea). Its clear that China is not going anywhere from SCS and they are still expanding the force to protect its energy/trade/economic shipping line from Indian Ocean-Malaka Straight-SCS. We already know the One Belt One Road project scope. Their Air Force and Navy is to be build for this particular project, no wonder they keep building Carrier. Its not just that, they also building overseas port city to facilitate oil supply such as Future one at Gwadar that is close to Iranian border. So they have to maintain good relation with Iran which would make US uncomfortable.
For Indonesia, the east line of their shipping lane from Indian ocean to malaka straight can be balance out with Indian military force. I know we have proposed the security agreemant to "patrol" the area with trilateral force (India-Indonesia-Malaysia) to balance out the China power from east side. I am not sure how it went out, the last information I got Malaysian Government has not yet responded (It needs Malaysia approval as malaka straight is part of Malaysia security interest as well). I bet they have pressure from China to reject it, and we know how our Jiran Neighbor current military and economy condition. They cant even do anything with all those CCG roaming around their EEZ. I personally skeptical that Malaysia would be joining the security patrol plan with India, they just simply dont have the balls against the high tide.
SCS tension can escalate as the tension in middle east is also rising. Middle east oil is too important for the world, powerfull country trying to protect their oil supply line where the stronger one simply occupy it like US, Rusia do in Syria for example. This put a huge pressure to Indonesia to balance it out in SCS (ASEAN) as the shipping line is coming thru our Nation. Diplomatic/political steps has been taking place for us as the investment and economic cooperation increase between us and China. But it wont be enough if we dont have the military muscle to leverage our move. The increase of our military budget to around 5% of our APBN (and the highest nation budget allocation) shown that we are serious in facing this Indian Ocen-Malaka-SCS situation. But what about other ASEAN members? Hard to tell as most of them under heavy influence of China economically and politically. How about US? Well how about this news on recent ASEAN Summit in Bangkok
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-u-s-summit-after-trump-skips-bangkok-meeting
I dont know what the future will bring, all I know that from this day onward we have serious inbalance of power in ASEAN. I do hope that this second term of Jokowi get really serious in building our military muscle capacity and capability. More reason to get that Iver Project rolling dont you think?