Indonesia Defence Forum

[UMNOPutra]

Sorry to say .. It seems that the discussion circulating about the procurement of weapons planned by your Defense Minister Prabowo is getting more and more "nonsense" and totally "irrational" ...

What really happened to your Defense Minister at this time?

 

[Indos]

Sorry to say .. It seems that the discussion circulating about the procurement of weapons planned by your Defense Minister Prabowo is getting more and more "nonsense" and totally "irrational" ...

What really happened to your Defense Minister at this time?

I would say Prabowo lacks of strategic thinking, buying weapons from either East (Russia ) or West (US, British, France) can make Indonesia vulnerable since Indonesia has experienced getting embargo from both USSR (Soviet) and West (US and British).

Nothing is stable in international politics, we can get stabbed by West if for instant we make mistake in Papua like what happened when our soldiers in East Timor opened fire to East Timor protester which is known as Santa Cruz massacre that lead to US and British embargo for 10 years (1995-2005). Papuan is in majority Christian, so they share some Christian sentiment with that province. Just remember what happen with East Timor and South Sudan.

What we should do with our budget to make it more effective

The best strategy is to help defense industry, improve industrialization and economy. We should wait our local industry to make the weapon like buying Rafale or F 15 EX now should be replaced with buying KF 21/IFX about 6 years from now as the mass production stage is started in 2026 inshaAllah. Of course many components still come from the West, but in order to reach full independent there are steps to take, and if we dont do now, we will be dependen forever

Other like buying MALE UCAV from foreign nations should be replaced by buying our own MALE UCAV starting in 2025 or 2026 where the mass production will be started inshaAllah. We have already had severa Israli and China drone as comparison, so no need to buy more Male UCAV drone at this moment. Buying the drone now will decrease our own industry future market and instead helping foreign nation defense industry. This condition will also happen in other product that is currently under development, like KF 21/IFX.

Defense budget can be more useful at this term (2021-2024) to finance our own R&D program where Indonesia is so lack and buying weapons that we dont make (and dont have immediate program) like big transport plane ( C 130 ), MRTT, AWACS, and also some missiles as we are still lack on AA and A2G missiles in reasonable amount.

Even it can be used to make IFX production facility and also increase N 219 production capacity. Our crucial project like Sumatra highway road still face lack of funding despite it is very important to make our economy competitive. Making sure our economy is progressing and healthy is necessary even if we talk about defense strenght. USA for instant is beaten by China due to economy and industry, not due to which one has more defense equipments than the other one.

Indigenous Rhan 122 B rocket and its indigenous MLRS system should also be bought instead of becoming prototypes forever as even Rhan 122 B
has already reached military target to reach 35 km and the MLRS is acknowledge by Army tester as having good quality.

More Pindad medium tank and Badak Fire Support Vehicle should be ordered as well while waiting local defense industry to make more sophisticated weapons like fighter jet and UCAV

CN 235 ASW and gunships should also be ordered as both can be made by local industry and very important defense equipment. CN 235 ASW is also crucial during submarine rescue operation and CN 235 gunship is really good platform to conduct patrol operation in Papua and also will be very good export potential, but our Armed force need to buy first to convince foreign buyers

Buying many radar should be wait our own 3 D radar program that will likely complete in 2024. At least at that time we have good capablity and bargain power and can lead to join program radar with Western countries.

Threat analysis until 2040

The geopolitics of South China Sea (SCS) is still calm with US is still very strong and its economy is even still growing, China is not fool to sacrifice its economic and technology development by start attacking her neighbor in SCS. It is economy and technological advancement that will make China defeat USA, making a war with US in SCS is very fool. Or even if USA doesnt intervere, there will be economic blockade to China and this will make China progress is very hampered, something that China doesnt want to do. Chinese leaders are not fool and stupid. I can say, at least until 2040 the region will likely be very safe.

Any way, Indonesia dispute with China nine dash line is relatively small and located in the edge of SCS, if China lead by crazy, he will make military advanture to Vietnam and Philippine first and Indonesia will likely be spared since many of their industry depend on Indonesian coal. Even if our agreement with China CATL reach concrete contract, it means they will have some meaningful dependence on our EV battery industry supply chain as well.

South China Sea (SCS) and its economic and strategic important

The economic important of SCS is getting less and less as EV industry is projected to replace combustion cars/motorcycle/buses as previously SCS is regarded as important due to its oil and gas potential. And despite this potential, until now there is no really huge oil and gas field there, of course Indonesia has found and extracted some of them, but the potency is not really great and since it will be deep sea oil and gas project, so the cost will be much higher than oil and gas field in Saudi for example.

Beside that, China as country that becomes rich due to trade, of course wants to see SCS as always become an open sea and one of the main reason of why China put military base there would be probably to make it protected from pirates and possible grab from Vietnam in the future, there is national politics as well that play so making base there would make the regime there get more domestic support politically.

Economy and local defense industry should be the focus

But of course Indonesia should still be prepared and because we have still another 20 years to prepare, we should have more focus on local defense industry and economic progress. Why economic progress ? It is because a Giant like China cannot be dealth with country that doesnt have powerful economic power, it will be useless since economic power will determine how much we are going to spend in military and strong local defense industry will make our defense spending more sustainable economically.

The period from now until 2025 is also critical, Indonesia should make sure its economy is competitive enough during the start of RCEP (FTA ASEAN-China-Japan-Korea-Australia-New Zealan). We have to focus more on economy (making it healthy and competitive) and industrialization (including growing our local defense industry and its ecosystem industries).

We need to get the positive momentum during the start of RCEP and maintain it, actually 2021 is already seen as the year to see which one will benefit more from that trade group, if we can manage to have strong growth during this 5 years period with healthy debt to GDP ratio, we can have long term positive trend of foreign direct investment that is caused by the momentum we can create (with the help of Allah) during the first 2-3 years of RCEP start.

If we cannot compete in RCEP, it means the possibility for Indonesia to balance China power in South East Asia after possible USA retreat after 2040 will be gone. This is why our defense strategists should think long term and should have economic and industry perspective before making any threat projection and analysis.

Immediate China threat perception

Immediate China treat perception is basically prompted by foreign defense equipment brokers and also schoolars from Singapore/Australia/New Zealand that wants Indonesia to buy as many weapon as it could from the West and in process destroy the development of our local defense industry since it means Indonesia will become so dependent to The West, so less possibility to attack SIngapore/Australia/NZ when Indonesia economy (nominal GDP) reach 3-4 trillion USD in 2035 inshaAllah (projected by many institutions like CEBR and Mckensy).

With that large GDP, Indonesia will have capability to have large defense budget, possibly around 3 until 4 times current budget after 2030 which follow conservative defense spending of 1% from total GDP figure. ( Indonesia defense spending history shows its defense spending is always less than 1 percent of its GDP since Soeharto regime until now).

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So far Prabowo dream is still controlled by our current Presiden and his economic team who have more rational and better strategic thinking than him

Here latest update about our budget management

Indonesia's plan to procure Rafale fighters hampered by funding roadblock

by Ridzwan Rahmat

25 May 2021

The Indonesian Ministry of Defense (MOD) has made further progress in its effort to procure 36 Rafale multirole fighter aircraft from Dassault Aviation but a formal contract may be delayed by a lack of clarity over funding sources.


In February, a delegation of senior Indonesian MOD officials led by Major General Dadang Hedrayudha, director general of the ministry's defence potential department, completed the latest round of negotiations with Dassault Aviation's vice-president for business development Jean Claude Piccirillo, and vice-president for offset Michael Paskoff.


The negotiations, which largely covered offset and financing arrangements, went well, Maj Gen Dadang said in February. The MOD has since raised a request for the programme to be funded with foreign-sourced loans, ministry officials disclosed in March.


However, a schedule of national projects that have been approved for foreign funding was obtained by Janes on 21 May. It confirms that Rafale programme has not been included. The schedule is published annually by the Indonesian Ministry of National Development Planning (Kementerian Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional: BAPPENAS), and it spells out national programmes for which foreign loans can be obtained for the year.

As such, given the lack of endorsement from the BAPPENAS, the bid to procure 36 Rafale fighters has not been gazetted by the Indonesian Ministry of Finance (MOF) as a defence procurement programme for the 2021 financial year.


Janes


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Indonesia's plan to procure Rafale fighters hampered by funding roadblock

The Indonesian Ministry of Defense (MOD) has made further progress in its effort to procure 36 Rafale multirole fighter aircraft from Dassault Aviation but a formal...

www.janes.com

 

[Indos]

Immediate China threat perception

Immediate China treat perception is basically prompted by foreign defense equipment brokers and also schoolars from Singapore/Australia/New Zealand that wants Indonesia to buy as many weapon as it could from the West and in process destroy the development of our local defense industry since it means Indonesia will become so dependent to The West, so less possibility to attack SIngapore/Australia/NZ when Indonesia economy (nominal GDP) reach 3-4 trillion USD in 2035 inshaAllah (projected by many institutions like CEBR and Mckensy).

With that large GDP, Indonesia will have capability to have large defense budget, possibly around 3 until 4 times current budget after 2030 which follow conservative defense spending of 1% from total GDP figure. ( Indonesia defense spending history shows its defense spending is always less than 1 percent of its GDP since Soeharto regime until now).

And we have to make sure that if we manage to have nominal GDP of 4 trillion USD in 2035 with the help of Allah as projected by CEBR with conservative growth of 5.5 percent until 6 percent until 2035, we should have defense spending that in large majority is absorbed by our local defense industry.

In order to make it happen, we should put much emphasis on our local defense industry from now on. If we are patience enough to let our local industry grow while keep giving them enough order and put enough spending on R&D of our research institution and defense industry SOE, we will likely to see our local defense industry to absorb our possible huge defense spending after 2030 inshaAllah.

The figure of possible defense spending in 2035 with 1 % of GDP is staggering, which is 40 billion USD a year from current around 9, 3 billion USD. This will also be supported by our own banking system that will also likely to grow as well that will provide domestic loan to our defense procurement that will be absorbed by local defense industry.

Talking about the CEBR growth projection of 5.5 percent until 6 percent for over a decade, it is now supported by recent economic projection by Fitch rating after first quarter data has been released and also new development of strong trade surplus which have been going on for 12 consequtive months- which means more stable Rupiah and which also show increase economy competitiveness that make us hopeful we can possibly win economic competition within RCEP region if we keep improving our economy competitiveness and maintain healthiness in our economy.

Impact to further industrialization

And since almost all of our local defense companies (state owned and private sectors) have both defense and civil division, it makes the revenue they get from their defense division will have direct impact on their civilian division. We know how German and Japanese defense companies during WW2 become ones of their leading companies which industrialize both countries after the end of WW2.


Prudent economic policy should still become our main characteristic in managing our economy and government spending

We have to keep debt to GDP ratio at 40 % at maximum until 2025, so we will spare more room if future economic shock happen again. We are basically helped with our previous prudent economic policy that make us have low debt to GDP ratio (30 percent) when we were about to face this pandemic period.

This prudent economic policy has made us advance more than our competitor during any economic shock, 2008 and now 2020-2021, and it also make our government able to provide financial assistance to our people if necessary like what happen during the year 2020.

Change in fundamental economy where debt to GDP ratio increases quite significantly will also pressure our Rupiah which is still in straggling mode since the pandemic comes in early 2020.

So better we think long term and with strategic thinking than short term ones. Unnecessary and big foreign loan will make our debt to GDP ratio skyrocketing, thus it will in turn make our Government bond interest raise which means more expensive loan while in the process we will lost the opportunity to use foreign loan (from bond market) for more productive and urgent program.

Following Prabowo plan will also make our local defense industry future market get much smaller. The plan will also suck our future defense spending to pay foreign loan for the next 28 years that fund foreign defense equipment that could be useless if we face any embargo from either West and East in the future.

 

[Whizzack]

Hmm... $125B for about 25 years is actually not that much... it's just $5B annually... But I believe this budget is separate from the annual defense budget allocated to the Defense Ministry (currently about $9B annually), and is intended exclusively for procurement and sustainment of new military hardware (local and imported)...

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Indonesia reveals USD125 billion military modernisation plan
by Jon Grevatt & Andrew MacDonald

A draft regulation from Indonesia’s presidential office has outlined the requirement for investment of USD125 billion in military modernisation through to the mid-2040s. The funding proposal is indicative of Indonesia’s military ambitions and its growing concerns about regional security.

The draft regulation – entitled ‘Fulfilling the Defence and Security Equipment Needs of the Ministry of Defence and Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) 2020-24’ – was issued recently but requires various approvals from ministries and the House of Representatives before enactment. The investment plan also highlights Indonesia’s continuing dependency on foreign loans.

Indonesia has stated a requirement for funding worth USD125 billion in military investment through to the mid-2040s. The country’s modernisation requirements are thought to include Lockheed Martin F-16V fighter aircraft. (Lockheed Martin)
The proposed regulation details the requirement for USD124.9 billion for TNI modernisation funding over a period of five ‘strategic plans’ each lasting five years. The first strategic plan runs 2020–24 and coincides with the final phase of the TNI’s Minimum Essential Force (MEF) programme, while the last will be 2040–44.

The document proposes funding of USD79 billion for defence equipment during this 25-year period, USD32.5 billion for sustainment, and the remaining USD13.4 billion for interest payments on foreign loans.

The regulation prioritises sourcing TNI modernisation requirements from local industry. However, it states, “In the event that domestic products cannot be [procured], then foreign products can be used.”

When defence equipment is imported, the regulation identifies the requirement to enforce “technology transfers and offsets” to support local industry’s involvement in the procurement. This industrial strategy also includes the provision of countertrade through which Indonesia seeks to export local commodities in part exchange for materiel.

Indonesia reveals USD125 billion military modernisation plan

A draft regulation from Indonesia’s presidential office has outlined the requirement for investment of USD125 billion in military modernisation through to the mid-2040s....

www.janes.com

 

[Indos]

Hmm... $125B for about 25 years is actually not that much... it's just $5B annually... But I believe this budget is separate from the annual defense budget allocated to the Defense Ministry (currently about $9B annually), and is intended exclusively for procurement and sustainment of new military hardware (local and imported)...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Indonesia reveals USD125 billion military modernisation plan
by Jon Grevatt & Andrew MacDonald

A draft regulation from Indonesia’s presidential office has outlined the requirement for investment of USD125 billion in military modernisation through to the mid-2040s. The funding proposal is indicative of Indonesia’s military ambitions and its growing concerns about regional security.

The draft regulation – entitled ‘Fulfilling the Defence and Security Equipment Needs of the Ministry of Defence and Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) 2020-24’ – was issued recently but requires various approvals from ministries and the House of Representatives before enactment. The investment plan also highlights Indonesia’s continuing dependency on foreign loans.

Indonesia has stated a requirement for funding worth USD125 billion in military investment through to the mid-2040s. The country’s modernisation requirements are thought to include Lockheed Martin F-16V fighter aircraft. (Lockheed Martin)
The proposed regulation details the requirement for USD124.9 billion for TNI modernisation funding over a period of five ‘strategic plans’ each lasting five years. The first strategic plan runs 2020–24 and coincides with the final phase of the TNI’s Minimum Essential Force (MEF) programme, while the last will be 2040–44.

The document proposes funding of USD79 billion for defence equipment during this 25-year period, USD32.5 billion for sustainment, and the remaining USD13.4 billion for interest payments on foreign loans.

The regulation prioritises sourcing TNI modernisation requirements from local industry. However, it states, “In the event that domestic products cannot be [procured], then foreign products can be used.”

When defence equipment is imported, the regulation identifies the requirement to enforce “technology transfers and offsets” to support local industry’s involvement in the procurement. This industrial strategy also includes the provision of countertrade through which Indonesia seeks to export local commodities in part exchange for materiel.

Indonesia reveals USD125 billion military modernisation plan

A draft regulation from Indonesia’s presidential office has outlined the requirement for investment of USD125 billion in military modernisation through to the mid-2040s....

www.janes.com

How can you say not much ? They want to order foreign defense equipment 125 billion USD in one go until 2024 (complete in 2024) while the payment will be paid gradually until 28 years.

This plan will destroy our local defense industry by eliminating their future market until the next 28 years thus hinder their natural growth.

 

[Whizzack]

How can you say not much ? They want to order foreign defense equipment 125 billion USD in one go until 2024 (complete in 2024) while the payment will be paid gradually until 28 years.

This plan will destroy our local defense industry by eliminating their future market until the next 28 years thus hinder their natural growth.

Huh..? It doesn't say anywhere in this article (or in any other articles I have read) that it will all be spent in only one go until 2024... on the contrary the below is true..

"The proposed regulation details the requirement for USD124.9 billion for TNI modernisation funding over a period of five ‘strategic plans’ each lasting five years. The first strategic plan runs 2020–24 and coincides with the final phase of the TNI’s Minimum Essential Force (MEF) programme, while the last will be 2040–44."

In short, this funding will be spread over 25 years (5 periods @5 years/period).. also note that nowhere did it mention that this fund will all be spent for foreign / imported arms only.. so we can be sure that domestic arms manufacturers will also get their fair share of purchases from this funding.. especially since we have laws prioritising domestic purchase (and manufacture) over foreign imports..

I rather like this new plan, as it decouples the budget for modernization from the annual defense budget, and most importantly, allocated the modernization budget a fixed amount of funding...

I also don't consider the amount ($125B) as excessive, since if we average it over 25 years, the annual amount is just $5B, which is well within our economic capability...

Now our next task is to ensure that this modernization budget be matched with an equally good planning and implementation... and not be wasted by inefficiencies or corruption..

This modernisation plan is totally different to the crash program of the 50's - 60's when we imported vast amounts of weaponry in preparation of Trikora while sacrificing domestic manufacturing..

 

[Indos]

Huh..? It doesn't say anywhere in this article (or in any other articles I have read) that it will all be spent in only one go until 2024... on the contrary the below is true..

"The proposed regulation details the requirement for USD124.9 billion for TNI modernisation funding over a period of five ‘strategic plans’ each lasting five years. The first strategic plan runs 2020–24 and coincides with the final phase of the TNI’s Minimum Essential Force (MEF) programme, while the last will be 2040–44."

In short, this funding will be spread over 25 years (5 periods @5 years/period).. also note that nowhere did it mention that this fund will all be spent for foreign / imported arms only.. so we can be sure that domestic arms manufacturers will also get their fair share of purchases from this funding.. especially since we have laws prioritising domestic purchase (and manufacture) over foreign imports..

I rather like this new plan, as it decouples the budget for modernization from the annual defense budget, and most importantly, allocated the modernization budget a fixed amount of funding...

I also don't consider the amount ($125B) as excessive, since if we average it over 25 years, the annual amount is just $5B, which is well within our economic capability...

Now our next task is to ensure that this modernization budget be matched with an equally good planning and implementation... and not be wasted by inefficiencies or corruption..

This modernisation plan is totally different to the crash program of the 50's - 60's when we imported vast amounts of weaponry in preparation of Trikora while sacrificing domestic manufacturing..

Jane defense reporting is not clear and can make the readers mislead of what the actual plan is. Trust our own media when it come to our plan since they have more information about this.

This I will give you the explanation coming from Mindef Spoke person himself, Listen to what he said carefully. Before, Mindef top position also said the same that the amount will be for 2020-2024 period while 25-28 years later is about the payment that will be paid gradually, but I sow it on TV so cannot bring it here.

What I can say it shows Prabowo lacks economics understanding and really dont care with our own local defense industry. It is good and bless that Jokowi put him as Mindef so we can see what he will do with power.

What I can say is that it is stil draft made by Prabowo in Mindef circle and hanst been brought to President office. I would say it will be failed in President office inshaAllah by seeing what President advisor comment about the Prabowo plan (Previous page)

Mindef spoke person commenting 2 days ago (start listening at 3.30)

1. The spending will be completed in this period/Renstra ( 2019-2024)
2. It will be financed with foreign loan (so it will be foreign defense equipments)

Comes directly from Mindef Spokeperson mouth himself

Local defense industry is not adequate to absorb huge order with their current capacity and also domestic bank dont have the capacity to finance the program if huge portion of the plan is for local defense products because the order will be completed in this term (2021-2024).

It is related to foreign defense equipment and foreign loan. You can understand more if you listen to top Mindef people that it is all talking about foreign defense equipment and foreign loan

 

[Aghost132483]

Those huge budget should be spent domestically by transfer technology, it could help our local industry, local vendor, jobs, and multiply effect on economy

 

[Indos]

This kind of reckless spending that must be made in rush before our own local industry can make them (jet fighter/submarine/MALE UCAV/ etc), since once they can make it, so no space for buying foreign equipment since we have law that forbid foreign military equipment acquisition if we can make it at home. It means no potential kick back

We should pick next Presidential candidate that has emphasis on long term plan to grow our local defense industry and increase R&D budget, rather than some one that will flush our money to buy foreign defense equipment (that could be replaced by local defense industry if we are patience enough and committed to fund our local industry program).

I am agree on Jokowi position on this

This is an example of how to make the acquisition effecient and effective for both Indonesian AirForce and Indonesian economy by not buying Rafale until 2024 and wait for indigenous program instead.

Positive effects :

1. Air Force

Improve capability since KF 21/IFX is 4.5 generation fighter and upgradable to 5 generation fighters

Possible more fighters are acquired due to cheaper price of KF 21/IFX for both acquisition (65 million USD) and maintenance cost

Communality in maintenance and operation by not operate too many of fighter type thus create less complexity and also lower maintenance and operation cost since PTDI is part of the OEM.

Increase deterrence by :

Decrease dependency on foreign country in the acquisition. local Upgrade and Future Refurbished program by local industry.

2. Indonesia local defense industry

Improving knowledge, technology and human resource base, boosting production and Indonesian Aerospace brand name.

Giving opportunity for other related Aerospace related company like InfoGlobal, PT LEN Industry, PT Nusantara Turbin to contribute on the program and thus giving them chance to grow in fighter jet components market.

3. Indonesian economy

Current situation: Lower Debt to equity ratio by not adding unnecessary foreign loan. Giving the government better image in the perception of Rating agency like Fitch rating due to its prudent economic policy

After KF 21/IFX reach mass production inshaAllah: local production, possibility to grow avionics and other aerospace related industries, much cheaper than Rafale and F 15 EX.

Effective and efficient spending

Retain more foreign exchange, hence strengthen currency

4. Indonesian brand image

Important to boost Indonesian hightech products like aircraft, electronics, sofware, and others image in the perception of both domestic and foreign market.

5. Geopolitics

Developing and making 5 generation fighter will increase the global leaders perception toward Indonesia

6. Mental Revolution

Giving high confident to all Indonesian and improve "We can make it" mind set among Indonesian.

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Threat analysis


The situation in SCS is still relatively calm since USA is still very strong and China will not want to jeopardize its economic development by launching any military assault in the region at least until 2040.

Any way, it will be Vietnam, Philippine, and Malaysia/Brunei who will be targeted by China if that country is lead by crazy (which is not the case of current leadership). Indonesia will likely be spared by China as the dispute is not significant and happen in the edge of China nine dash claim.

We should focus on how to accelerate our local defense program and put more R&D on it. Radar acquisition IMO should also wait our two radar programs that are planned by Bappenas and PT LEN Industry (3 D radar). Getting foreign join program should also be done with the promise to make many RADAR so that TOT packet can be really significant.

 

[182]

Indonesia acquires A-220M naval guns for KCR-60M attack craft

The Indonesian Navy (Tentara Nasional Indonesia – Angkatan Laut: TNI-AL) has acquired two A-220M 57 mm naval guns from Russia, and is now installing the first unit on a KCR-60M fast-attack craft.

Images provided to Janes from two separate industry sources confirm that one of the naval gun units is being incorporated as the primary weapon for the second-of-class, KRI Tombak (629).

Janes first reported in February 2018 that the TNI-AL was considering the A-220M for two vessels in the KCR-60M class.

These new weapons are replacing the vessels' older Bofors 40 mm cannons that were salvaged from the decommissioned landing ship tank (LST) vessel, KRI Teluk Semangka (512), as an interim measure to provide the KCR-60M with naval gunfire support capabilities.

According to product literature published by JSC Central Research Institute Burevestnik, the А-220М is designed to engage air, surface, and coastal targets. It has a maximum range of up to 12 km when engaging surface targets, and 8 km when engaging aerial targets.

Janes understands that the A-220M that was supplied to Indonesia features a deck mounting and a barrel-cooling system that has been customised specifically for the KCR-60M class, given space constraints beneath the vessel's deck.

The weapon is also equipped with its own electro-optical and radar-guided weapon control system and can accommodate up to 400 on-mount ammunition rounds.

>before

>after

 

[Mohamed Bin Tughlaq]

This is an example of how to make the acquisition effecient and effective for both Indonesian AirForce and Indonesian economy by not buying Rafale until 2024 and wait for indigenous program instead.

Positive effects :

1. Air Force

Improve capability since KF 21/IFX is 4.5 generation fighter and upgradable to 5 generation fighters

Possible more fighters are acquired due to cheaper price of KF 21/IFX for both acquisition (65 million USD) and maintenance cost

Communality in maintenance and operation by not operate too many of fighter type thus create less complexity and also lower maintenance and operation cost since PTDI is part of the OEM.

Increase deterrence by :

Decrease dependency on foreign country in the acquisition. local Upgrade and Future Refurbished program by local industry.

2. Indonesia local defense industry

Improving knowledge, technology and human resource base, boosting production and Indonesian Aerospace brand name.

Giving opportunity for other related Aerospace related company like InfoGlobal, PT LEN Industry, PT Nusantara Turbin to contribute on the program and thus giving them chance to grow in fighter jet components market.

3. Indonesian economy

Current situation: Lower Debt to equity ratio by not adding unnecessary foreign loan. Giving the government better image in the perception of Rating agency like Fitch rating due to its prudent economic policy

After KF 21/IFX reach mass production inshaAllah: local production, possibility to grow avionics and other aerospace related industries, much cheaper than Rafale and F 15 EX.

Effective and efficient spending

Retain more foreign exchange, hence strengthen currency

4. Indonesian brand image

Important to boost Indonesian hightech products like aircraft, electronics, sofware, and others image in the perception of both domestic and foreign market.

5. Geopolitics

Developing and making 5 generation fighter will increase the global leaders perception toward Indonesia

6. Mental Revolution

Giving high confident to all Indonesian and improve "We can make it" mind set among Indonesian.

----------------------------------------------------------

I agree with you on most points but there is an underlaying tone of none-urgency in your comment. You have more patient outlook on this thing and long-termish which is needed but one most counter both ends of the argument. You can play long game on one front and urgent on the other.

As for the airforce there is no need for modernization as everything looks good for now and until 2030 and KFX will be upgraded to 5th generation by that point and given air-superiority but the aggressive up-scaling has to occur in other fronts such as the Navy and the conventional armed forces and also an in house increase in domestic productions like Malaysia is key. To be fairly honest the Navy itself looks good since there has already been made purchase on these SK submarines and 3 are in construction in addition to what is already there but There needs to be done some addition purchases to gain superiority factor in the ocean more purchases in warships and submarines from Turkey Reis or Milden could be a major asset and couple of others.

One place Where there needs to be made most investment in is gonna be the conventional armed forces an increase in tanks and 4'4 armored V's and 8'8 armored V's including air-defensive systems O-Hisar and some other defensive systems making it two-three different platforms in addition to the once you already got it strengthens the overall defensive system the more systems you add on top of them the better.

Tanks and Armored V's should be increased by 2000-3000 that is alot but that is where most of the budget should go to and you don't need to purchase these because Indonesia develop these domesitically like the Anoa (armoured personnel carrier) these are solid armored personnel carriers so both the Armored V's and Tanks has to be locally produced so you don't need to purchase anything and the cost won't be high or demanding when doing it yourself.. You can produce a bunch for your own use..

The only thing that needs to be purchased overseas is extra additional submarines and Warship not for defensive purposes as what indonesian navy has now is enough for deterence but these extra additions will provide a superiority factor which will expel ideas of any misadventures into the archipelago oceans. Also what needs to be mass created is domestic sea mines and a massive army of under water drones with explosives making the archipelago one of kind fortress with domestic productions hence Indonesia can mass produce these at low cost and they are an effective deterence and could potentially sink any ship or submarine at will.

As for the level of threat Malaysia and Brunei falls into Indonesian security protocol and Indonesia won't allow anyone to set a foot on the Borneo Island or Malaysian mainland as that would be breach of red-line hence why they fall under the Indonesian defensive line by default and the largest part Borneo is part of Indonesian territory.

Prabowo Subianto's defensive budget increase plan should be approved by the board Unanimously. He wants to stay ahead of times and I won't even call it modernization but rather a much needed up-scaling in some departments

 

[Indos]

Investigative report made by Tempo about Prabowo plan and his attempt to lobby parliament members. It makes only PAN and Democrat who opposes the plan.

Prabowo Subianto’s Speed Train Arms Deal

Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto plans to place a large order for sophisticated military equipment. It is suspected that this procurement does not involve the Indonesian Military (TNI). There is concern that companies filled with people close to Prabowo will monopolize the procurement of...

magz.tempo.co

 

[182]

LIVE: TERNYATA ANGGARAN ALUTSISTA BUTUH HINGGA 3,47 KUADRILIUN BUKAN CUMA 1.760 T | AFU FT. ANDI W - former minister and defence analyst
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well from his point of view, now i know why they created pt tmi.

 

[Indos]

Investigative report made by Tempo about Prabowo plan and his attempt to lobby parliament members. It makes only PAN and Democrat who opposes the plan.

Prabowo Subianto’s Speed Train Arms Deal

Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto plans to place a large order for sophisticated military equipment. It is suspected that this procurement does not involve the Indonesian Military (TNI). There is concern that companies filled with people close to Prabowo will monopolize the procurement of...

magz.tempo.co

Just to make it clear for non Indonesian members and possibly many other readers that this President Regulation is still in the form of draft/plan and being worked by only Mindef circle, not yet pass Minister of Planning and Minister of Finance and also the President himself. If they can pass it then it can go to parliament, if not then it will be just a draft that cannot be executed.

As Indonesian, we know Jokowi is unlikely to pass it and become a law. It is because Jokowi admin is very economic centric with focus on infrastructure, local industry (including local defense industries), and sensitive with our economic fundamental.

More on our economic policy. Our Finance Ministry has said she will maintain debt to GDP ratio at below 45 % until 2024. Current number is 40 % (2020) after huge stimulus in 2020 increase the number from 30 % into 40 %. The number will keep increasing this year and next year to spure economic growth but with slower pace than 2020 fiscal year, while 2023 is the time Indonesia will go back to previous prudent economic policy with budget deficit being limited to maximum at 3 % of GDP.

What Jokowi admin did in his first term is to use defense budget to be spent on products that are made by local defense industries which many of them are in the form of logistic ships (LPD, oil tanker, LST, and others), 1 submarine, and missile boat (KCR 40 and KCR 60), small and medium transport and MPA planes ( NC 212, C 295, and CN 235), helicopter (Caracal/H22M, BEL 412 EP), vehicle (Badak) and medium tanks (Harimau) and first year of his second term also bough defense equipment in majority from Pindad (Maung, ammunition, SS2 assault rifles).

For 2024 Presidential election the chance is unknown since Prabowo only has 18 percent support while 40 percent are not yet picked any candidate and possibly wait for program, I would say this 40 percent are rational voters that will determine our next President base on his program.

 

[Indos]

If Jokowi is only about infrastructure then his really not the right man for Indonesia. The world has slowly entered a hectic period or pre-major incident where unpredictable things can happen one morning. disregarded the defense over infrastructure makes him a fairly incompetent president in my honest opinion where was Prabowo is the only sane mind here doing the right thing at the right time.

The local defense industries is good and all but it is still weak and what all this proves is that Jokowi is a weak leader who can't think outside the box and predict where the world is headed and adjust himself accordingly. WW3 is gonna be a different type of animal as it will engulf every single country and area cuz it's not gonna be a separate thing due to nuclear winter killing 90% of the worlds crop forcing everyone into arms even these who absolutely don't want it cuz at that point it becomes fight or die starving.. If Jokowi fails to approve he shouldn't be re-elected.. It is a very unpredictable world we live in and people like Jokowi are just not made for this type of world but Prabowo is more vigilante and can think ahead and foresee things ahead for the future. As they say before any boxing match protect yourself at all times.. They should put alot of pressure on Jokowi to press forward with the defense budget

Just look on our Indonesian Strategic Industries before commenting Indonesia local defense industry as weak. We have made frigate, medium tank, rockets, electronics equipment and has program in place to build fighter jet, MALE UCAV, cruise missile, balistic missile.

PT PAL Director has said he has made unmanned submarine design that can launch torpedo that will be much cheaper than current conventional submarine.

Indonesia economy (nominal GDP) is projected to reach 4 trillion USD in 2035 according to CEBR, so we are likely to have large defense budget starting in 2030 inshaAllah, so you dont need to worry about Indonesia defense posture in the future inshaAllah.

Indonesia leadership should not make reckless policy that can harm both our economy progress and local defense industry development (by destroying their future market). Having a strong economy and local defense industry is a clever and sustainable way to make Indonesia strong militarily.

I think we know already your opinion and we know that you are US citizen, your country is not part of Muslim world. We know what we do and I am here to bring good advice to my country.