India's worries could mount with Khaleda's expected return to power in BD

[BanglaBhoot]

India predicts regime change in Dhaka by early 2014

by News Desk
August 29, 2012

Intelligence agencies in India, including Research & Analytical Wing [RAW] has categorically alerted the Indian government about the replacement of the current government in Bangladesh by a new "regime" during early 2014. According to the reports, the popularity of the Bangladesh Awami League led leftist-Islamist coalition is at fastest decline. It said, more than 73 percent of the total population is either unhappy or annoyed with the current government, who are looking for changes during the next general election. The intelligence reports also predicted Khaleda Zia returning to power with landslide victory.

India's prestigious daily newspaper The Times of India, a report by Bharti Jain titled 'India's worries could mount with Khaleda Zia's expected return to power in Bangladesh', said "With indications increasingly suggesting the possibility of a regime change in Dhaka in early 2014, the intelligence establishment here is worried that anti-India forces could once again get a free run to use Bangladesh as a staging post for terrorism and other subversive activities.

"The term of the Sheikh Hasina government, which reined in terror outfits operating from its soil, ends in January 2014. Revolving-door politics being much the norm in Bangladesh, it is likely to be the turn of Begum Khaleda Zia, Hasina's arch rival who is not known to be friendly towards India. In fact, as she rises in the charts capitalizing on Hasina's incumbency, Khaleda has also been busy painting the prime minister an Indian stooge.

"The security agencies fear that Bangladesh-based subversive elements, like those aligned with fundamentalist outfit and BNP partner Jamaat-e-Islami, could resume their policy of sponsoring and sheltering insurgent groups active in northeast India which use the neighbouring country as a safe haven besides providing an infiltration route to Pakistan-sponsored terror outfits.

"The communal divide between Bodos and Bengali-speaking Muslims in parts of Assam has the potential to be exploited by Bangladeshi fundamentalists to radicalize the Muslim youth there and add muscle to home-grown terror in India."

The Times of India termed the cooperation extended by Sheikh Hasina government to New Delhi as "unprecedented" saying, "New Delhi has got unprecedented cooperation from the Hasina regime in busting the havens of Indian insurgent groups in her country as well as in the investigation of terror incidents with Bangladeshi linkages. However, as the popularity of the Awami League regime under Hasina dips, ceding ground to rival BNP, the agencies fear that the gains of the last few years may be reversed if Khaleda regains power."

Bharti Jain has once again made the same attempt similar to that of false report which was published in Khaleej Times stating Pakistani ISI gave money to Bangladesh Nationalist Party during election in 1991. She even falsified the statement of ISI ex-boss Asad Durrani's statement saying, he [Durrani] had already acknowledged the fact of funding BNP. In the report, Bharti Jain said, "It is no secret that Pakistan's ISI has been using Bangladesh to carry out anti-India operations. Bangladeshi terror outfit HuJI enjoys close links with Pakistani tanzeems. Many of the ISI-sponsored perpetrators of terror attacks in India had either infiltrated through Bangladesh or escaped to the neighbouring country after the strikes. There are many other instances of ISI links with Bangladesh: ISI footing the election bill of Khaleda in 1991, a revelation made by none other than former ISI chief Assad Durani; NSCN cadres travelling to Pakistan from Dhaka in March 1996 for training in guerrilla warfare; an ISI-sponsored technical expert training Ulfa in operation and installation of communication equipment at a Nagaland camp; detaining of NSCN (I-M) chief T Muivah at Bangkok airport in January 2000 while returning from Karachi after allegedly inspecting an arms consignment; and the revelation of arrested All Tripura Tiger Force (ATTF) cadres that ISI had extended $20,000 assistance to Tk 58 lakh to the outfit, besides imparting arms training to eight ATTF cadres in 1997 at Kandahar, Afghanistan.

"With ISI and Bangladeshi group Jamaat-e-Islami allegedly funding Assam-based Muslim fundamentalist groups like Multa, Mulfa, Simi and Indian Mujahideen, it is feared that the latter may be used to exploit the tension between Bodos and Bengali-speaking Muslims in Kokrajhar to stoke communal fires and instigate local Muslims to take to home-grown terror.

"Obviously, the Indian security establishment is keen to arrest the slide in Awami League's popularity. Though there is little it can do to reverse the incumbency disadvantage, a positive development on the Teesta water-sharing pact, financial assistance for the Padma Bridge project and exchange of enclaves may go a long way in correcting the negative perception in Bangladesh that Hasina has not managed any major concessions from India. However, these will be possible only after UPA's troublesome ally, the Trinamool Congress, is convinced to drop its reservations on Teesta and the enclaves."

Bharti Jain even forecasted in her report that a number of leaders of Bangladesh Nationalist Party [BNP] will be convicted within 2013 on war crime charges. She also categorically mentioned that Indian intelligence agencies, including RAW are actively trying to find ways of stopping the fastest decline in popularity of the ruling Bangladesh Awami League led leftist-Islamist coalition government.

"Even as efforts will intensify over the next year to recover lost ground for Hasina, senior intelligence officials here claimed that Khaleda's BNP alliance, saddled by corruption cases and expected conviction of its leaders by war crimes tribunals, could see a reversal in its growing popular perception closer to the polls, expected sometime in February 2014."

India predicts regime change in Dhaka by early 2014 :: Weekly Blitz

 

[anilindia]

M. Serajul Islam

A great deal of optimism that was created in Bangladesh by the AL-led government for a paradigm shift in Bangladesh-India relations now seems to be fading. Our negotiators are no longer in public view speaking on the good things accruing for us from improving our relations with India.

It is a regret that things have not turned out as our negotiators had expected. Their optimism of Bangladesh becoming the regional connectivity hub with great economic benefits is achievable if relations are conducted on the basis of trust. In fact, after giving India the security commitment and granting it a trial run of land transit, Bangladesh should have been on track to becoming the regional connectivity hub if India had kept its part of the bargain.

India’s failure to deliver the Teesta deal at the proverbial eleventh hour forced Bangladesh to withdraw the land transit deal that is crucial to making Bangladesh the regional connectivity hub. With it, the prospect of a paradigm shift in Bangladesh-India relations has diminished. The failure to lift Bangladesh-India relations to a new level after Sheikh Hasina showed the way has been largely due to the last minute spanner put by Mamata Banerjee, the mercurial Chief Minister of Paschimbanga. New Delhi also did not show the strong political will necessary to lift Bangladesh-India relations to a new level of mutually beneficial relations.

Although forward movement of Bangladesh-India bilateral relations have faltered, the benefits of negotiations have not been completely wasted. India now realises better that land transit would help bring a new era of economic development to the eight northeastern states that are stagnating because they are cut off from the mainland and are landlocked with grant of land transit by Bangladesh. India has already benefited significantly from the cooperation on security where Bangladesh’s assistance has broken the many decades old ULFA insurgency. India would however need continued security cooperation of Bangladesh to sustain the gain and also to tackle the other insurgencies in the northeast.

Bangladesh has today become better aware that good relations with India would make it the regional connectivity hub. It has also become aware that the economic activates that would follow from it would create the environment of trust to seek the solution of Bangladesh’s water sharing problems with India where the eventual solution would have to be regional and not bilateral. The environment of trust would also in due course take care of the other major problems that Bangladesh has with India such as the issues of trade, killings in the border and demarcation of the land boundary.

Unfortunately, Mamata Banerjee’s spanner halted for the time being the bright prospects towards which Bangladesh-India relations were moving. In fact, if India had moved in the same speed with which Bangladesh went ahead, Mamata Banerjee would not have had the opportunity to be the spoiler of the party. Bangladesh-India relations would have been on way to the new era that Sheikh Hasina’s unilateral moved on Indian needs of security and land transit had promised.

Nevertheless, even if New Delhi had moved fast that would have kept Mamata Banerjee out of the equation, the opposition of the BNP would still have been a problem. In fact, the BNP would then have played the role of the spoiler, blaming India of taking from Bangladesh its critical needs on security and land transit and failing to give Bangladesh its needs on water sharing, border killings, trade issues and land boundary demarcation. It would have then taken stand against the government for “selling Bangladesh”.

After the forward movement stalled, the BNP changed its stance. In public, it leaders supported friendly relations with India based on trust and mutual respect, no doubt moved by the prospects that negotiations between the two countries brought to the surface before the Mamata Banerjee spanner. Begum Khaleda Zia has given an interview to New Delhi based Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. That is very refreshing for those who believe and rightly so that India and Bangladesh, for reasons of history and geo-politics, should have the best of relations based on trust and mutuality. In her interview, Begum Zia addressed the two issues critical to India, namely terrorism and connectivity. On terrorism, she said that the two countries should work together and eliminate it bilaterally. She also underscored the fact that apart from tackling terrorism bilaterally, SAARC Regional Convention on Terrorism of 1987 and Additional Protocol of 2004 provide further framework to tackle and eliminate all kinds of terrorism.

Begum Zia also allayed India’s fear about BNP’s stand on connectivity. She assured that the two countries should not be just concerned at connecting each other; she extended Bangladesh’s hand to work together with India to connect South Asia with Southeast Asia. She said that the Look East policy of the two countries should provide the excellent framework not just for connectivity in South Asia but also connecting South Asia with Southeast Asia and China and “will facilitate increased trade and movement of people and ideas amongst all of us.”

Begum Zia of course stressed upon the need by India to resolve the outstanding issues of interest to Bangladesh to take relations forward. She identified these issues as “sharing of the waters of our common rivers, killing of unarmed civilians in the border areas and a satisfactory resolution of our land boundary demarcation.” Begum Zia underlined that “the main challenge to further development of our relations is the lack of confidence and trust among our people in our relationship”.

She was no doubt alluding to India’s recent and past failures to keep its promises and commitments without mentioning instances. Nevertheless, India’s failure to sign the Teesta deal and implementing the land boundary agreement after signing it during the Indian prime minister’s visit to Dhaka are fresh in the minds of Bangladeshis that lends credibility to Begum Zia’s views. In underscoring the trust element, Begum Zia was however careful in not blaming India that was quite a departure from the way the BNP has spoken about India in the past. Quite clearly, the BNP has matured to the point where it is not interested anymore to play politics with India or blame India for the sake of blaming it.

The ball goes in the court of India. Begum Zia’s interview should help encourage New Delhi to believe that the BNP is also serious for improvement of relations with India as the AL. Many in Bangladesh were encouraged when Pranab Mukherjee had expressed at his meeting with Khaleda Zia in early May that India is interested in relations with Bangladesh and not with a political party. With Pranab Mukherjee soon to become India’s first Bengali speaking President, this is significant for India if the country seriously looks beyond the AL for sustainable relations with Bangladesh.

Earlier, Begum Zia had a very good meeting with the Indian prime minister during the latter’s visit to Dhaka last September. Quite possibly, it is the encouragement coming from top Indian leadership that has brought the change in the BNP’s attitude towards India and the public awareness created by the initiatives taken by Sheikh Hasina.

With BNP now showing positive signs about better relations with India, there should be less concern in India that the AL’s term is getting close to an end. India should now resolve its own internal problems and show the political will that Sheikh Hasina has shown and Khaleda Zia has promised. The issue for betterment of Bangladesh-India relations now rests squarely on India’s political will.

The writer is a former Ambassador to Japan.

The Daily Sun, 1 July 2012

BNP and India: Positive signs

 

[eastwatch]

M. Serajul Islam

A great deal of optimism that was created in Bangladesh by the AL-led government for a paradigm shift in Bangladesh-India relations now seems to be fading. Our negotiators are no longer in public view speaking on the good things accruing for us from improving our relations with India.

It is a regret that things have not turned out as our negotiators had expected. Their optimism of Bangladesh becoming the regional connectivity hub with great economic benefits is achievable if relations are conducted on the basis of trust. In fact, after giving India the security commitment and granting it a trial run of land transit, Bangladesh should have been on track to becoming the regional connectivity hub if India had kept its part of the bargain.

India’s failure to deliver the Teesta deal at the proverbial eleventh hour forced Bangladesh to withdraw the land transit deal that is crucial to making Bangladesh the regional connectivity hub. With it, the prospect of a paradigm shift in Bangladesh-India relations has diminished. The failure to lift Bangladesh-India relations to a new level after Sheikh Hasina showed the way has been largely due to the last minute spanner put by Mamata Banerjee, the mercurial Chief Minister of Paschimbanga. New Delhi also did not show the strong political will necessary to lift Bangladesh-India relations to a new level of mutually beneficial relations.

Although forward movement of Bangladesh-India bilateral relations have faltered, the benefits of negotiations have not been completely wasted. India now realises better that land transit would help bring a new era of economic development to the eight northeastern states that are stagnating because they are cut off from the mainland and are landlocked with grant of land transit by Bangladesh. India has already benefited significantly from the cooperation on security where Bangladesh’s assistance has broken the many decades old ULFA insurgency. India would however need continued security cooperation of Bangladesh to sustain the gain and also to tackle the other insurgencies in the northeast.

Bangladesh has today become better aware that good relations with India would make it the regional connectivity hub. It has also become aware that the economic activates that would follow from it would create the environment of trust to seek the solution of Bangladesh’s water sharing problems with India where the eventual solution would have to be regional and not bilateral. The environment of trust would also in due course take care of the other major problems that Bangladesh has with India such as the issues of trade, killings in the border and demarcation of the land boundary.

Unfortunately, Mamata Banerjee’s spanner halted for the time being the bright prospects towards which Bangladesh-India relations were moving. In fact, if India had moved in the same speed with which Bangladesh went ahead, Mamata Banerjee would not have had the opportunity to be the spoiler of the party. Bangladesh-India relations would have been on way to the new era that Sheikh Hasina’s unilateral moved on Indian needs of security and land transit had promised.

Nevertheless, even if New Delhi had moved fast that would have kept Mamata Banerjee out of the equation, the opposition of the BNP would still have been a problem. In fact, the BNP would then have played the role of the spoiler, blaming India of taking from Bangladesh its critical needs on security and land transit and failing to give Bangladesh its needs on water sharing, border killings, trade issues and land boundary demarcation. It would have then taken stand against the government for “selling Bangladesh”.

After the forward movement stalled, the BNP changed its stance. In public, it leaders supported friendly relations with India based on trust and mutual respect, no doubt moved by the prospects that negotiations between the two countries brought to the surface before the Mamata Banerjee spanner. Begum Khaleda Zia has given an interview to New Delhi based Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses. That is very refreshing for those who believe and rightly so that India and Bangladesh, for reasons of history and geo-politics, should have the best of relations based on trust and mutuality. In her interview, Begum Zia addressed the two issues critical to India, namely terrorism and connectivity. On terrorism, she said that the two countries should work together and eliminate it bilaterally. She also underscored the fact that apart from tackling terrorism bilaterally, SAARC Regional Convention on Terrorism of 1987 and Additional Protocol of 2004 provide further framework to tackle and eliminate all kinds of terrorism.

Begum Zia also allayed India’s fear about BNP’s stand on connectivity. She assured that the two countries should not be just concerned at connecting each other; she extended Bangladesh’s hand to work together with India to connect South Asia with Southeast Asia. She said that the Look East policy of the two countries should provide the excellent framework not just for connectivity in South Asia but also connecting South Asia with Southeast Asia and China and “will facilitate increased trade and movement of people and ideas amongst all of us.”

Begum Zia of course stressed upon the need by India to resolve the outstanding issues of interest to Bangladesh to take relations forward. She identified these issues as “sharing of the waters of our common rivers, killing of unarmed civilians in the border areas and a satisfactory resolution of our land boundary demarcation.” Begum Zia underlined that “the main challenge to further development of our relations is the lack of confidence and trust among our people in our relationship”.

She was no doubt alluding to India’s recent and past failures to keep its promises and commitments without mentioning instances. Nevertheless, India’s failure to sign the Teesta deal and implementing the land boundary agreement after signing it during the Indian prime minister’s visit to Dhaka are fresh in the minds of Bangladeshis that lends credibility to Begum Zia’s views. In underscoring the trust element, Begum Zia was however careful in not blaming India that was quite a departure from the way the BNP has spoken about India in the past. Quite clearly, the BNP has matured to the point where it is not interested anymore to play politics with India or blame India for the sake of blaming it.

The ball goes in the court of India. Begum Zia’s interview should help encourage New Delhi to believe that the BNP is also serious for improvement of relations with India as the AL. Many in Bangladesh were encouraged when Pranab Mukherjee had expressed at his meeting with Khaleda Zia in early May that India is interested in relations with Bangladesh and not with a political party. With Pranab Mukherjee soon to become India’s first Bengali speaking President, this is significant for India if the country seriously looks beyond the AL for sustainable relations with Bangladesh.

Earlier, Begum Zia had a very good meeting with the Indian prime minister during the latter’s visit to Dhaka last September. Quite possibly, it is the encouragement coming from top Indian leadership that has brought the change in the BNP’s attitude towards India and the public awareness created by the initiatives taken by Sheikh Hasina.

With BNP now showing positive signs about better relations with India, there should be less concern in India that the AL’s term is getting close to an end. India should now resolve its own internal problems and show the political will that Sheikh Hasina has shown and Khaleda Zia has promised. The issue for betterment of Bangladesh-India relations now rests squarely on India’s political will.

The writer is a former Ambassador to Japan.

The Daily Sun, 1 July 2012

BNP and India: Positive signs

I personally know the writer since his assignment in Tokyo during BNP time. If what he said in the article is true, which i believe is based on present thinking of BNP elite, it can be safely stated that BNP is not for a confrontation with India, at least, not until the election is over.

BNP certainly believes it unwise to quarrel with a crocodile when in the river. It is good to see BNP has come down to point whereby it believes a good relationship with India is necessary for the development of BD.

BNP is basically a progressive minded party. But, Jamaat has been lending its supports all along for its own benefits that also helped BNP. The best choice for BNP is to fight the next election without making an alliance with Jamaat. The way things are going BNP may choose this path. However, it must not indulge into a thinking that it can win an election without a CTG. With a CTG, BNP may win over 200 sets, but without a CTG AL may win in 151 to 170 seats.

 

[INDIC]

BNP have ruled two times in Bangladesh. So, nothing new to guess here.

 

[MandarK]

Good for India. Once Anti-India govt comes to power in BD, India govt need not to worry about friendly relations with BD. BSF will be on fire

 

[romell99]

I think Hasina will successfully malign Khaleda with various cases of corruption that happened in Zia regime and BD will again vote Hasina for another term..and we will get "Indian Stooge" Prime Minister for another 5 years..what say you???



we are born "Bangladeshi Basher".. or Bangladeshis are easily "bashable"..whatever you think..

always talking about bash, killing, rape and other crime....

it has become common attitude of indian people.

 

[romell99]

They all have a price. I hear Khaleda is in New Delhi these days with a new dalali tender tucked in her purse.[/QUOT]

propaganda... ?????

 

[airmarshal]

Obviously, the Indian security establishment is keen to arrest the slide in Awami League's popularity. Though there is little it can do to reverse the incumbency disadvantage, a positive development on the Teesta water-sharing pact, financial assistance for the Padma Bridge project and exchange of enclaves may go a long way in correcting the negative perception in Bangladesh that Hasina has not managed any major concessions from India. However, these will be possible only after UPA's troublesome ally, the Trinamool Congress, is convinced to drop its reservations on Teesta and the enclaves.

Even as efforts will intensify over the next year to recover lost ground for Hasina, senior intelligence officials here claimed that Khaleda's BNP alliance, saddled by corruption cases and expected conviction of its leaders by war crimes tribunals, could see a reversal in its growing popular perception closer to the polls, expected sometime in February 2014.

So the author has a lot of problem digesting alleged ISI interference but has no qualms about his country's direct involvement in influencing the election results?!! (See the bold part). Indians think they have right to interfere in neighboring countries.

No wonder this report is coming from Times of India, the most hilarious mainstream newspaper of the world!!

 

[hunter_hunted]

The comments In TOI site are more spicy than in this forum. From now on I will daily visit TOI infact I will set it as a task for myself.

 

[romell99]

So the author has a lot of problem digesting alleged ISI interference but has no qualms about his country's direct involvement in influencing the election results?!! (See the bold part). Indians think they have right to interfere in neighboring countries.

No wonder this report is coming from Times of India, the most hilarious mainstream newspaper of the world!!

india always try to hide their fault by blaming others..specially ISI

 

[Luffy 500]

Good to see hindutva terrorist are farting in fear of BD. The extent of $hit propagated in this $hit of an article by this toilet news is just astounding. Look at this following quote from the article:

Obviously, the Indian security establishment is keen to arrest the slide in Awami League's popularity. Though there is little it can do to reverse the incumbency disadvantage

This clearly shows that these shameless fagots accepts BD to just bow down to their malaunic interference as if its their birth right. On the other hand these lunatic hypocrites and their brainwashed countrymen scream all day long saying India don't interfere in BD in favor of BAL and have no nefarious designs against BD .

the comments under the article are hilarious, never fail to make me laugh

The comments In TOI site are more spicy than in this forum. From now on I will daily visit TOI infact I will set it as a task for myself.

You bet. And you can be damn sure that most of those posters in TOI are also here in PDF. Internet indians represents majority of Indian ppopulation and their cave mentality babaric psyche.

Just look at these following comments specially the bolded parts:

what a shame... we call ourselves a developed power rather than worrying about the regime change... we should have such diplomatic steps in place, that any country resorting to anti india activities from its land will face sanctions. give them stern warning and if no effect... follow up with stern action.... We can justify such steps... In history we have already seen, any nation having introvert tendencies is destined to be balkanised.

I agree. But when i meant annexing BD, I also meant that before integrating with India, to rule it using the military for 20 years to sober the mass and destroy the militant mindsets and slowly integrating with India. But you have a point of using CARPET BOMBING, and I agree !!!

Typical trolls like Bombay dude or Bhairava could have posted similar nonsense. Its the general psyche of the indian populace , a sick barbaric terrorist mentality and they have these view not only towards BD but also other neighbors like PAK and SL. And even among all such hypocritical venom and $hits they clowns pop out , they dare to call themselves peace loving and great suckular democrazy. Most of their population are psychopathic clowns and borderline retards.

If Khaleda comes into power and proves herself "more Loyal" to india ..... than how would Bangladeshi "patriot friends ' would respond...?

She came to power twice before and her husband Pres,ZIA got the country out of Indian dominance and prevented sikkimization of BD back in the late 70s. She is veteran politician and knows what she is doing. She doesn't talk much and have a dominating influence over the party members and have gentle charismatic character in front of the public. BNP never sold BD's interest to India or any other state and always had a proactive forgien policy. But they also have criminals and looters but they always proved themsleves to be of the lesser of the 2 evils. She may make some bold decisions to take BD out of India's influence again and try to retrieve whatever is lost. BAL's indian dalali and loot over this period will make it harder for BNP to negotiate with india specially on the teesta issue. This would not have been the case had these BAL fagots hadn't sold off the country completely over the last 3.5 years. Some awami malaun from Japan doesn't know the actual picture of the country and naturally farts out loud all the time.She will never be "more loyal" to india.

 

[Contrarian]

BNP is in for a rude shock if they think they can get away with funding and supplying Indian separatist organizations and terrorists like they did last time.

 

[LaBong]

Khaleda is not even a tiny blip in India's radar. Meanwhile Bangladeshis can bask in the glory of self-importance while none cares for it's existence.

 

[romell99]

BNP is in for a rude shock if they think they can get away with funding and supplying Indian separatist organizations and terrorists like they did last time.

Bangladesh does not support indian insurgents. it is their credit that some time they carry out successful operation against indian army.....

it does not mean that BD support them.

we r busy with our problems.

 

[eastwatch]

Khaleda is not even a tiny blip in India's radar. Meanwhile Bangladeshis can bask in the glory of self-importance while none cares for it's existence.

Oh! Since when have you been newly appointed the PM of India. You are trying to impress others by talking big as if you are the new PM. Talk from an even level with others and do not flatter yourself by big mouthing.