India’s Snub to China on OBOR: Unwise to Ignore Economic Interests

[GlobalVillageSpace]

OBOR: Has India lost its ticket to development?
Global Village Space |

M. K. Bhadrakumar |

According to Pakistani press, one highlight of the participation by PM Nawaz Sharif at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing (May 14-15) was to be the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the two countries, opening the door to massive Chinese investment – to the tune of $50 billion – for the development of the North Indus River Cascade in Pakistan’s Gilgit-Baltistan region. This will be Chinese investment over and above the $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor.

Beijing has decided to simply ignore Delhi’s protestations and proceed with the CPEC projects in a big way in Gilgit-Baltistan.

A whopping 40000 MW of electricity can be produced in the region known as the North Indus River Cascade, which stretches from Skardu in Gilgit-Baltistan and runs through Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa as far as Tarbela. The stunning development catapults Pakistan as by far the number one recipient of Chinese investment in infrastructure development. The geopolitical significance is at once obvious.

Beijing, which went the extra league in the recent months to convince India that the latter’s concerns over sovereignty relating to the CPEC are unwarranted, has apparently given up and decided to simply ignore Delhi’s protestations and proceed with the CPEC projects in a big way in Gilgit-Baltistan. It is a political and diplomatic snub by China, conveying a frank message to the Modi government to “get lost”.

Read more: The Middle-Eastern conflict: Threatening for Pakistan and China’s OBOR

The Modi government is now left with an option to carry on regardless along the path of confrontation and rivalry with China, or, alternatively, to see the writing on the wall and get adjusted to the fait accompli with a sense of stoicism and sense of modesty. The latter course is not easy since the “core constituency” of the BJP will mutiny and the RSS will rap on the government’s knuckles. However, China seems to estimate that it is in India’s DNA that sooner rather than later, it will feel the intensity of regional (and global) isolation – especially now that all of India’s neighbors, including Nepal, have joined the OBOR – and make atonement.

Meanwhile, the announcement in Washington on Thursday that President Donald Trump had nominated his special assistant and the point person on Asia in the National Security Council Matt Pottinger to represent him at the weekend event in Beijing must have come as a shock to the Indian foreign-policy elites. The US-China détente that is unfolding under Trump’s stewardship makes complete nonsense of Modi government’s China policies that are tied to the apron strings of the Obama administration’s pivot strategy in Asia. The US and China made a joint announcement on Thursday regarding the first tranche of policy decisions on trade issues envisaged under the so-called Initial Actions of the U.S.-China Economic Cooperation 100-Day Plan that was agreed upon by Trump and President Xi Jinping at their Mar-a-Lago meeting in Florida in April.

The US Commerce Department announced on Thursday that Washington “recognizes the importance” of China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative and is, therefore, deputing a delegation to attend the forum in Beijing.

The White House feels delighted that the relationships Trump has built with President Xi Jinping and other Chinese leaders “are clearly paying dividends.” The announcement covers areas such as agricultural trade, financial services, and energy to boost economic cooperation. Amongst other things, China will receive imports of beef and LNG from the US, while the latter agrees to apply the same bank prudential supervisory and regulatory standards to Chinese banking institutions as to other foreign banking institutions.

Read more: Is India cutting ‘off its nose to spite its face’ on OBOR?

The US Commerce Department announced on Thursday that Washington “recognizes the importance” of China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative and is, therefore, deputing a delegation to attend the forum in Beijing. It cannot be lost on the Trump administration that OBOR is shaping up as a new vector of globalization and the US will be the loser if it stays out of the new supply chain. Ning Jizhe, China’s vice-minister of the National Development and Reform Commission said in Beijing on Saturday:

Read full article:
OBOR: Has India lost its ticket to development?

 

[Skull and Bones]

Yes, now move on.

 

[Logicaldude]

Gawd!!!

This is so touching. Such mutual love is unprecedented. Pakistanis are telling Indians how to become 1st world in a decade and Indians losing sleep over how Pakistanis are going to pay their debts.

Only if this love did not have a foreign party or parties spoiling it by always playing one against the other for whose benefit? Since this is PDF lets just say for Pakistans because that's what powers do, help the underdog for free.

But this was always inevitable. This was the reason behind the partition too, so that foreign powers always have an entry in the region.

 

[beijingwalker]

You think a foreign country pumping up Pakistan is a new phenomenon?
We have seen that before in a much greater capacity.

The Americans have already done decades back what you are doing now. The Americans funded Pakistan massively economically and also practically gifted them the absolute cutting edge of military gear right from the 1950 onwards to have Pakistan as an ally. This on a scale that you will never be able to manage. Back then we were dirt poor and Pakistan was actually richer than us on a per capita basis.

Even then we beat Pakistan Army. What scope do they have now. Nothing.

US will never directly fight India and South Asia is never their backyard, you can't say the same about China.

 

[Banglar Bir]

‘Nervous’ India can’t stop neighbours backing OBOR: Global Times
SAM Report, May 15, 2017

Chinese President Xi Jinping makes a toast during the welcoming banquet for the Belt and Road Forum at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China May 14, 2017. Picture: REUTERS/Damir Sagolj
New Delhi ‘should just be a good member of the audience’ if it does not wish to participate in the initiative, a report in the Chinese state-run media said.

India’s refusal to join China’s high-profile Belt and Road initiative is “regrettable” but New Delhi cannot “impede its neighbouring countries from cooperating with China in infrastructure development”, a column in the Chinese state-run Global Times said on Monday, referring to New Delhi’s opposition to China’s One Belt, One Road initiative.

“It is strange that the onlooker is more anxious than the players,” the article read. “While India cares about its neighbours’ debt burden, the neighbours appear willing to take on more.” The two-day Belt and Road Forum is being attended by leaders from 29 countries, including Pakistan.

The editorial came in response to New Delhi’s statement on Saturday, in which it said the project, which includes the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, does not respect India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The 3,000-km-long CPEC is aimed at connecting the two countries through a network of railway tracks, roads, pipelines and optical cable fibres. India has been critical of the CPEC as it runs through Azad Kashmir.

“While India recently issued an official statement saying it would not be part of the “One Belt and One Road” (B&R) initiative, it will not affect the trend towards cooperation in infrastructure development among its neighbouring countries at all,” Global Times reported today.

“India was openly sceptical of China’s Belt and Road Forum (BRF) hours ahead of the opening of the event, mainly due to concerns over the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). It is regrettable but not a problem that India still maintains its strong opposition to the B&R, even though China has repeatedly said its position on the Kashmir dispute would not change because of the CPEC.” the article said.

“The B&R is a grand economic cooperation and development plan open to everyone, and is aimed at improving infrastructure in countries along the B&R route, thus benefiting the local people, it said. China would never force any country to participate in the B&R if it was too sceptical and nervous to do so” the article said.

Referring to the statement issued by the Ministry of External Affairs on March 13, a day before the two-day B&R summit, it said India also cited the potential debt burden as one of its other concerns, saying that, “connectivity initiatives must follow the principles of financial responsibility to avoid projects that would create an unsustainable debt burden for communities.”

On Saturday, Pakistan and China inked new deals worth nearly USD 500 million, covering airport, port and highway construction, it said. “As regards the potential debt burden, Pakistan’s repayments will peak at around USD 5 billion in 2022, but this will be offset by transit fees charged in the CPEC,” it quoted a media report and referred to Nepal officially signing a deal with China to join the B&R with plans to build a cross-border rail link that may cost up to USD 8 billion.

The article further stated that given the active responses from countries along the route, there is no way for India to impede its neighbouring countries from cooperating with China in infrastructure development. “China has formally invited India to join the B&R. If India doesn’t want to take a part on the stage, then it should just be a good member of the audience. The role is still available if India changes its mind, but it may only be a small role if it is left too late,” it said.

 

[rcrmj]

a factor driven primitive country carries no weight on international stage, yet pretends to be a big shot````
there are much more benefits you can gain than set-backs.

 

[rendong]

Different people have different aspirations. cannot be forced.

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Out to isolate Pakistan on the issue of terrorism, India finds itself isolated in the bigger game reshaping the geopolitical map of the world.

This says it all. At the end of the day, Pakistan has the last laugh when it comes to so called isolation thing.

 

[ito]

Any benefit from OBOR are limited for India. Anyway modi's plan is to make in India and not import cheap products from China.

 

[JetCool]

Well, it certainly appears to me that he's covering his nose.

That is because it was taken during his visit to China.

a factor driven primitive country carries no weight on international stage, yet pretends to be a big shot````
there are much more benefits you can gain than set-backs.

NO means NO.

How many time does India have to tell you before you understand ?

 

[Logicaldude]

The grand OBOR conference has been a major media event recently. Given that the first corridor under OBOR is CPEC, the event has got even bigger coverage on PDF.

All of this is good, sovereign nations pursuing their interests the best they can. BAU. Having witnessed incredible Chinese efficiency, I have no doubt the commitments will materialise too.

What is bothering me however are taunts to India about how we are 1 isolated, 2 missing development bus and 3 are generally jealous. All India is doing is exercising our right not to participate as we wish to pursue our national interest our way.

No we are not isolated. Do you guys even know the meaning? Also isolation or otherwise, is it an end in itself? No. One wants international cooperation from various countries so that we get the best out of it. And the best is only possible when there is competition. This is our view. And I have some numbers to support my argument.

I will take the example of Mumbai Ahmedabad High Speed Rail corridor. This 507 kilometre HSR will connect the largest cities in two states with a current GDP of 550 Billion USD. A pet project of our PM, two consortiums, one led by Japan and another by China competed for it. Yes China.

After intense negotiations and competition in 2015 Japan won the project. They beat the Chinese on financing arrangement. Oh did I mention loan? Yes this 17 billion dollar project requires a loan of 12 billion USD. Japan offered better rates. Currently the project is undergoing soil testing and construction to start next year.

Now this is where competition is good. We got the loan from Japan for 50 years, repayment starts after 15 years and -drum roll- at interest rate of 0.1 percent. Yes you read right, 0.1 percent. And Japan and India have had rather strained relations for decades due to our nuclear program so no higher than Mount Fuji friendship also no Japanese labor, no insurance cost, no guaranteed return, no tax break and no revenue share!

Now I do not want to compare the terms with CPEC. That will be impolite on PDF and also not needed to make the point. But I will reiterate my point that competition is good. Second example - we just auctioned a solar power project and got power tariff of 3.7 rupees per unit. That is Pakistan rupees You can do the rest of the homework.

So let's all open up our hearts and horizons for more efficiency and competition so that all of us benefit. There is no reason to believe cool aid rhetoric and interest driven narratives when all of us are educated and capable of doing our own hard numbers analyses. Let us understand how we can do that. More competition means no isolation. Isolation means no competition and huuuuge price to pay. Let OBOR succeed and everyone along with it. Just don't worry too much about the fastest growing major economy because they skipped one conference

- Logicaldude (the author is a professor of soft trolling at PDF. He has so far won 8 negative ratings and has a fan following of 1 user)

@Roybot @Icarus @Nilgiri [USER=37361]@MilSpec @Syama Ayas[/USER]

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

And AIIB will also finance Indian projects, of which China is the largest shareholder. So we will use Chinese money to build ourselves without expanding Chinese influence the way it would have if we were with OBOR.

So its a win-win. We use your money, but not under OBOR.

Genius, since China is the largest shareholder in the AIIB we have effective veto power over how the money is spent.

I guess India never understood what veto power means, be it in the AIIB, the NSG or the UNSC.

 

[rcrmj]

That is because it was taken during his visit to China.



NO means NO.

How many time does India have to tell you before you understand ?

and your gov making a fool out of yourself ```anway join in or not we will keep dumping cheap stuffs in India

 

[Logicaldude]

@HAIDER @war&peace @Riaz haq @sarthak @Levina

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

India‘s "small role" is a given in the Eurasia big picture, both geographically and historically speaking the subcontinent has always remain a certain degree of isolation and detachment.

So India not wanting to be a part of BRI is quite understandable.. the best China can ask for is India not to be actively against the initiative