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Indian cotton exports to Pakistan slump amid tensions - Indian exports could plunge to 3M bales

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Indian cotton exports to Pakistan slump amid tensions - traders
Home / Business / Indian cotton exports to Pakistan slump amid tensions - traders
By REUTERS
October 08, 2016
Latest : Business


MUMBAI/KARACHI: Rising hostilities between India and Pakistan have brought their $822 million-a-year trade in cotton to a juddering halt, as traders who are worried about uncertainty over supplies and driven by patriotism hold off signing new deals.

The nuclear-armed rivals have seen tensions ratchet up in the past few months over the disputed territory of Kashmir, and cotton traders in both countries said they were watching developments along the de facto border with alarm.

Pakistan, the world's third-largest cotton consumer, usually starts importing from September, but three Indian exporters said the number of inquiries had slowed to a trickle in the last two weeks.

In the clearest sign yet of souring relations affecting commerce, Pakistan-based importers also said they were not buying.

"At the moment there is no cotton trade. It's at standstill. There is uncertainty that, God forbid, if war breaks out, what will happen?" said Ihsanul Haq, chairman of the Pakistan Cotton Dealers Association.

Pakistan Cotton Commissioner Khalid Abdullah said a "low quantum of trade activity is still taking place."

He said the Pakistan government had not directed traders to stop buying Indian cotton and expected trade to normalize when tensions eased.

Indian government officials said they had not yet noticed trading had stopped.

But some Indian officials said last week that Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government was considering whether it should choke trade with Pakistan to put pressure on its neighbour, even though the trade balance is in India's favour.

INDIA'S BIGGEST COTTON BUYER

Trade between India and Pakistan, which have fought three wars since their independence from British rule in 1947, is small.

In the 2015/16 fiscal year ending on March 31, official trade between the two was $2.6 billion. Cotton is the largest component of that total.

It is not clear whether other goods and commodities traded between the two, such as jewellery and dry fruits, have been hit by the escalation in hostilities as well, but the disruption to cotton shipments is potentially significant.

In the crop year ended Sept. 30, Pakistan was India's biggest cotton buyer after its own crop was hit by drought and whitefly pest.

It imported 2.5 million bales from India, and supported Indian cotton prices at a time when China was cutting imports, traders said.

Lower purchases by Pakistan this year could hurt exports from the world's biggest producer of the fibre and put pressure on Indian prices, but could also help rival cotton suppliers like Brazil, the United States and some African countries.

Chirag Patel, chief executive officer of Indian exporter Jaydeep Cotton Fibers, said the country could export 5 million bales in the 2016/17 crop year, but exports could plunge to 3 million bales without Pakistani imports.

An exporter based in Mumbai estimated that Pakistan will need to import at least 3 million bales in 2016/17, and India will have a surplus of around 8 million bales.

"As soon as the (political) situation improves, cotton trade will definitely resume between the two countries," said Haq of the Pakistan Cotton Dealers Association.

But for now, traders on both sides of the border said the environment was not conducive to doing business.

"Many cotton exporters are not interested in selling cotton to Pakistan. They are trying to find other markets," said Pradeep Jain, a ginner based in Jalgaon in the western state of Maharashtra.

Shahzad Ali Khan, chairman of Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association, referred to a move by the Indian Motion Picture Producers' Association (IMPPA), a small filmmakers' body, last week, banning their members from hiring Pakistani actors.

"India is banning Pakistani artists, so how can it expect us to buy cotton from India?" Khan said.

"In various forums Pakistani traders are saying they will not buy cotton from India this year. Even if they need to pay extra, they will pay and buy it from other suppliers."
 
A minuscule shock that Indian economy can handle. At the end of the day it would be a win for black market in Pakistan and would hit GOP earning.

We can produce far better cotton. Plus we can buy synthetic ones from China.

Keep shutting all trade with Pakistan, we will look for other markets to buy from even if it is at high rate since those who are in need or fond of such products can pay higher
 
Indian traders will anyway earn through black market. It's pakistan's loss by not allowing the trade through legal channels

:what: are you mad?? it is you aka India that is blocking your goods to Pakistan NOT us.
 
I just mean that such trade blockade harms Pakistan more than India, so Pakistan should put all its effort in mending its fence with India rather than supporting insurgency in Kashmir.

Kashmir is an issue which cannot be suppressed by blocking trade by India.

Secondly in the past Indians used to say we should continue trade despite Kashmir issue now after you guys have tried everything but failed to curb the situation in Occupied Kashmir, you are now resorting to all such blackmail of blocking vegis, cotton etc etc.

What is the big deal. We will find another market. We have to pay whoever we buy
 
A minuscule shock that Indian economy can handle. At the end of the day it would be a win for black market in Pakistan and would hit GOP earning.
without cotton imports pakistan cannot export textiles
 
Vegetables not exported, Cotton not exported. now it si required to reduce the trade via Dubai route. India's Domestic demand is big enough for the traders. Plus there are 200 other countries to export to. Let Pakistanis buy from other countries and pay extra
 
No worries, Bangladesh has lots of demand for cotton. In fact, India can barter cotton for their hilsa.
 
The Pak India trade was heavily tilted in India,s favour
 
I just mean that such trade blockade harms Pakistan more than India, so Pakistan should put all its effort in mending its fence with India rather than supporting insurgency in Kashmir.
May be this will teach you guys a lesson to start learning to stand on your own two feet. Just like you started doing well in industrial sector after sanctions in 98 and continued your nuclear program without a halt.
 
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