India wary of being US card in China play

[Neo]

India wary of being US card in China play​

* Analysts believe India will continue to expand economic ties with China, while its policies on security will become ‘more convergent’ with Washington​

NEW DELHI: The US push to end India’s status as a nuclear pariah was partly motivated by a desire to counter China’s rise, but New Delhi does not want to get sucked into a US-Sino power play, analysts say. “India does share many US concerns regarding China,” said Anupam Srivastava, director at the Center for International Trade and Security at the University of Georgia. But New Delhi has conveyed “in very clear terms from the outset that it is not interested in being drawn into any such balance of power games in Asia or outside,” Srivastava told AFP.

Washington spearheaded efforts that resulted this month in the Vienna-based Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) lifting a global ban on trade with India, despite New Delhi’s refusal to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The NSG waiver followed the striking of an India-US pact on civilian nuclear co-operation in 2005 between Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and US President George W Bush which still requires Congressional approval. The financial incentives are obvious, with the United States expecting to be rewarded with a major slice of India’s civilian nuclear energy market - estimated to be worth tens of billions of dollars. But there are also geopolitical considerations.

Building India as a counterweight to China was “at least part of the motivation among some of the (US) decision-making circle,” said Michael Quinlan from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies. For decades, India had close relations with the former Soviet Union despite its official policy of non-alignment during the Cold War years.

But New Delhi recrafted its foreign policy after launching market reforms in 1991, focusing on improving ties with Washington - a process that culminated in the nuclear deal. Former Indian diplomat K Shankar Bajpai said Washington’s support for the pact and the NSG waiver had been lent with the expectation of exacting some leverage in return. “Specifically, the US sees a strong India as an asset in a world in which China is the second world power,” Bajpai said, while adding that India had its own firm ideas about the role it should play. “One can accept American help in becoming strong without ganging up against China,” he said.

India has its own set of concerns regarding its relations with its giant neighbour and economic rival - ranging from a festering border dispute to fierce competition in securing energy sources to fuel their fast-growing economies. India has also been upset by perceived Chinese moves to “checkmate” its own rise - allegedly supporting arch-rival Pakistan with arms and economic aid and reportedly trying to block the NSG waiver last week, Indian officials say.

While India may baulk at the idea of being a counterweight to China, it knows it can reap certain strategic benefits from a closer relationship with the United States. According to Srivastava, India-US collaboration in areas like counter-terrorism and maritime security are aimed at circumscribing “Chinese latitude and propensity for actions that could undermine economic or security equations across Asia”.

Expanding ties: India will continue to expand economic ties with China, but security relations “will remain disputed,” he said, while at the same time New Delhi’s policies will become “more convergent” with Washington’s in security and technology areas. Indian analyst C Uday Bhaskar said India’s entry into the global nuclear trading club had introduced “a certain degree of strategic equipoise” into Asia.

“Clearly till now, China has been the major power in unipolar Asia,” Bhaskar said, adding many countries in the region were keeping a wary eye on Beijing. “The wariness stems from the lack of clarity over how China is going to behave as it becomes even more powerful,” he said. afp

 

[Contrarian]

There is a simple enough explanation. By rule, to become a superpower, you have to be the only dominant power in your own neighbourhood.

For China to even think of becomming a power which can challenge the US, it has to be the sole power of Asia. The rest of Asia must listen and generally follow China's policies.

So regardless of whether India gets sucked in the US-China power play, a strong India which can actively deny China a free hand in Asia curtails its influence tremendously. Whether India fights a war against China or not is a completely different issue, but just an economically and militarily strong India(with even neutral relations with China) which can challenge China undercuts its ambitions for great power status by a great margin.

This is the same thing for India. To be able to effectively be the counterweight to China, India must first be the sole and unchallenged power in South Asia. The reason why China continues to prop us Pakistan against us is this. As long as they keep India occupied in S.Asia, we are effectively unable to challenge them.

Due to the past one decade of growth economically and militarily, along with many other things like increasing influence and ties with major powers, India is finally on the verge of breaking the South Asian straitjacket. Pakistan can no longer be the equal counterweight to India it has been till now. And the US realises this completely, thus the nuclear deal among the many other things.

Its in US interest to have a strong India, regardless of whether they expect India to even attempt to contain China or not. A powerful India defacto cuts China's power on the international stage.

 

[gpit]

The perception that “China has been the major power in unipolar Asia” is not true, perhaps even completely wrong: economically, Japan is many times more powerful; militarily, Russia, albeit officially a European country but having vast geographical extension and huge political influence in Asia, is many times more powerful.

In addition, Chinese ideology has yet to be proved and/or accepted by other developing countries in a world where the touting of the success of “western democracy” is all over the place, with a blatant ignorance that democracy becomes many time a tool/pretext to interfere/subvert/invade other sovereign countries internationally, or for politicians’ personal gains domestically.

China may become powerful in the future; however, the self-containing nature of Chinese culture won’t let the country easily be the one as American hegemony. This has been fully demonstrated 6 hundred years ago by Admiral Zheng He’s expedition with his mighty imperial fleet. He’d essentially left native people to live in their own ways.

Geographical position gives China unique political, economic and military advantages (and challenges) that can never be gained by India. This helps to make India, even a powerful India, only a minor issue to China, should India decide to be China’s enemy. Nevertheless, a peaceful S. Asia is in China’s interest and is in the interest of all S. Asians.

India does have the potential to be a powerful country. To archive this, however, domestically, India needs to straighten its system to make sure that all men are created equal, and to realize that simple copy of Western system may/may not suit its native needs; internationally, India has to make friends, not foes, with all its neighbors by lowing its imperialistic mentality and to gain its neighbors’ trust: British type of expansionist imperialism has long gone. If India is trapped in S. Asia, it is trapped its own wrong international policies which are hostile to its own neighbors.

Past has revealed that if India has to rely on Soviet help, it has to follow Soviet’s camp. Future will demonstrate: if India has to rely on USA, it has to follow US camp. Both scenarios will supply India with gains and losses. Indian wise men have yet to weigh a better way. While one Indian wise man seems to have revealed a new thinking: you can change your friends, but you can’t change your neighbors, whether that has been heeded by majority of Indian elites and is put into practice or not has yet to be seen.

 

[Contrarian]

This was not about culture gpit. Neither was this about Chinese ideology being exported to the world.

Its about brute economic and military power. While Japan maybe militarily stronger than China, its constitution and other factors prevent it big time from being a big player.

And Russia is for all practical purposes not in Asia.

And in that aspect, China can never become the second power it would wish to be if India is the counterweight. The same reason why India cannot be the major global player till Pakistan ceases to be the counterweight.