India vs China war: current scenario and possible outcomes

[!eon]

China has wasted too much time in beginning and made a big tactical mistake. They should have first send their troops and secured the area. They should have been aware of situation much earlier.

Now, both countries know war is not an option for this tiny part of remote land strip. Indians are 100% sure that China would not risk her economical progress because of this land, that's why they are thumping their chests.
Overall, this situation has very bad effect on China's international position by giving a weak image of strong China. This will eventually create weaker position for China in South China Sea. Just like Russo-Finnish winter war created a weak image of strong Russia.
This also has negative impact on Pakistan's position, a strong tactical ally has made a big mistake.

 

[ashok321]

No front line tank deployment, no artillery from China.
Fast & furious aerial attack coupled with volleys of missiles.
No mass troops, standoff, push button (swift) blistering attack.
Decimated area is all that would be, decimation is what the Chinese want.
There are enough aerial assets already deployed by China in Tibet.
While short range missiles are being beefed up quickly.

However the countdown has not begun yet.
There would be a friendly deadline to India; leave by tomorrow or else.....type.

Situation does not look good for India.

 

[Abingdonboy]

India will withdraw.

Chinese will finish up their development projects.

Routine

You have been saying that for 52 days now (and counting), still waiting for that withdrawel......


Fact is, the Indian side is preparing itself for a long stand off and has moved provisions accordingly, there is no way they are retreating.

 

[Sliver]

China has up the stakes too high for Doklam now if they back-out they will lost strategically as well as diplomatically many countries in SEA will b on their throat.

going to war and having a possibility of not winning (or worse, getting the SCS islands attacked by US and losing those) would be even more disastrous for China. its in Chinese best interest to actually show maturity and dissolve this dispute peacefully - it will encourage other countries to talk to china.
a war imposed by china will speed up military alliances against china

 

[Abingdonboy]

I have few questions regarding India vs China War

Indian usually say that they are in advantageous position in Doklam. As they are in high ground and then backed by mountain divisions.

1. If that the case then why China will use ground troops when they can use long range artillery and missiles which they have in numbers. After missiles attacks they can try to get air dominance on that area.
2. As its a mountain area, the missiles can target bridges and road passes as there will b fewer roads leading to this area. Uptil now there is no artillery deployed by India. China has already deployed HQ17 in tibet area and they ave alot more long range Sams in case india will use brahmos.
3. Indian Claim is because china air fields on high ground so planes can not use full load. But how about using air refueling in air and also they have alot more jets they can use numbers on its advantage.
4. India has to import of its spare parts so ofcurse it will dent their war capabilities incase war prolongs.
5. in an other scenarios if US will provide more weapons to India. then where Russia will b?
6. How many resources india can divert from Pakistan and Bangaldesh border.
7. What IAF how many squarden it can bring in case Pakistan just heat up LOC or just show some intent to distract India. As i believe it will b Air war and missiles skirmishes rather than troop bases initially as restricted by the area with high mountains passes.

Though its not accurate

I will appreciate constructive discussion over here keep in view past and updates of military and diplomatic approaches from both sides.

@jhungary @Oscar @hellfire @Feng Leng @wanglaokan @Horus @HAKIKAT @Hindustani78 @Abingdonboy @SarthakGanguly @ashok321 @TaimiKhan @TaiShang @TaimiKhan @MastanKhan whats your view guys.

Let me know incase you guys want to add additional scenarios and information.

@WebMaster plz keep trollers away from this thread.

Right now China is far too stretched to contemplate kinetic operations in the area, they have bigger problems to their East and far too few assets in their West.

On the ground the IA is in an advantagious position, and any missile/arty strike by the PLA would be a huge escalation that would only result in a full scale conflict.

As for logistics- the IA is able to maintain its positions in far more remote and inhospitable terrain (Siachin) year round, Doklam is a walk in the park by comparison.

 

[atya]

No front line tank deployment, no artillery from China.
Fast & furious aerial attack coupled with volleys of missiles.
No mass troops, standoff, push button (swift) attack.
Decimated area is all that would be, decimation is what the Chinese want.
There are enough aerial assets already deployed by China in Tibet.
While short range missiles are being beefed up quickly.

However the countdown has not begun yet.
There would be a friendly deadline to India; leave by tomorrow or else.....type.

Situation does not look good for India.

Most honest Indian post related to the current situation.

 

[Abingdonboy]

China has up the stakes too high for Doklam now if they back-out they will lost strategically as well as diplomatically many countries in SEA will b on their throat.

China has already lost, 52+ days now and despite all their violent rhetoric India is unmoved.

 

[NeonNinja]

I think Both will withdraw and everything will go back to routine

 

[Sliver]

I think Both will withdraw and everything will go back to routine

that will still count as victory for India and a withdrawal of Chinese positions from their "perceived" border.

 

[Star Wars]

how about missiles attack on logistics of IA before any ground force attack at doklam. how it will be advantageous for IA.

IA can manage the logistics since it is really not that far away from the mainland, the PLA on the other hand is on the wrong side of the Chinese mainland, Indian missile strikes and Air strikes are likely to be more devastating on the Chinese supply lines than it will be for India.

Roughly from what i read somewhere, Chinese garrison in Dhoklam is backed by 1500 acclimatised Chinese troops further back, while there IA has more than 3 to 4 times the amount ready to reinforce if required. They can bring in reinforcements, but they will have to wait weeks for the troops to acclimatise.

If you look at Chambi Valley, Dhoklam and where Sikkim is and if you consider it has almost 3 mountain divisions there, you can figure out why China is in such a disadvantage there. I expect a possible attempted encirclement within the first week by IA.

Personally, a war is unlikely now, almost 2 months in. IA is dug in and prepared for all eventualities. They should have acted sooner. You don't give you potential enemy 2 months time to prepare...

 

[Abingdonboy]

going to war and having a possibility of not winning (or worse, getting the SCS islands attacked by US and losing those) would be even more disastrous for China. its in Chinese best interest to actually show maturity and dissolve this dispute peacefully - it will encourage other countries to talk to china.
a war imposed by china will speed up military alliances against china

Spot on, how China resolves this conflict will have a huge effect on how China is allowed to function going foreward. If it takes this all the way to an armed conflict then the myth of China's "peaceful rise" will be shattered once and for all and BRI/OBOR will collapse, if China can show restraint and find an amicable win-win resolution for this then it will show that it is capable of acting maturely and will be treated with respect (and not outright suspicion) by others in future disputes.


Right now, there is a signifcant trust defict between any nation China deals with, it can address this to a large extent if it acts appropriately now. The rhetoric coming out of the Chinese state media makes this hard to believe though.....

 

[Fireurimagination]

Both sides will wait it out until winters and then will have to withdraw any which ways

 

[nair]

There is not going to be any war...... India has fortified the area, and closed the window of a skirmish.... India will not fire a single bullet until it is forced to..... The question is who will blink first....... The best option is winter.... in which both can blink together....

Well I would say India played it cards pretty well......

 

[Abingdonboy]

Personally, a war is unlikely now, almost 2 months in. IA is dug in and prepared for all eventualities. They should have acted sooner. You don't give you potential enemy 2 months time to prepare...

Yup, the element of surprise is totally gone for China and they have lost the initiative. To think they could surprise the Indian positions now is pretty absurd.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

China is playing it smarter here. The USA, primed with the internal schisms, is getting bogged down with NK under the umbrella of yet another "missile crisis" - this time with an "analog" knob!!! They need to negotiate with China to dial it down into a tolerable range!!! Forget about Japan, SK etc.!!! In the economic front, dependence on China is growing at an alarming rate!!! In the past Chinese companies' projections were to work for the USA - now, it's reversed!!! Don't know whether there'll be a physical war or not, but conjectures are going to China's favor IMO...