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India to halt Iran oil imports over insurance - MRPL

News look fishy. Indian oil importers primarily Indian govt autonomous companies will be using Indian insurance companies. Any private player using forgine insurance can shift over to Indian one. Indian insurance market is big so no problems.


And India and Iran can work on some solution if the issue is oly insurance
 
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Thank God officials don't make decisions like you do.

India follows its interests and we are under sanctions.We can't expect them to hurt their economy for us.Neither Iran would do that for any other country.That doesn't make them our enemy.

Anyhow,I'm almost sure that this news is a false,again by Reuters.I think its tenth time they report X or Y cutting oil imports from Iran and few days later, it comes out as a hoax.More like a psychological piece than a news.

i agree with you, but iran has been doing that for a country.
 
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i agree with you, but iran has been doing that for a country.

If you mean Syria or Hezbollah, then it's good to point out that they are strategic and close allies of Iran.I don't comment on if helping them is right or wrong, people tend to have different opinions regarding that.

But Iran and India are not strategic allies.We are culturally and economically close to each other and have some mutual interests, but that isn't some sort of alliance.At least not in my view.
 
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If you mean Syria or Hezbollah, then it's good to point out that they are strategic and close allies of Iran.I don't comment on if helping them is right or wrong, people tend to have different opinions regarding that.

But Iran and India are not strategic allies.We are culturally and economically close to each other and have some mutual interests, but that isn't some sort of alliance.At least not in my views.

no my mean is not syria or .. . it's Palestine. we are paying high cost for them since over 30 years ago. our country,our nation is suffering because of supporting Purposes of another country and nation.

palestine issue is not irans interest, it's an Ideological goal(good or bad) that just damaged our country,economy.
 
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to heck with sanctions. india need iranian oil and GOI should find some way to insure the companies. iran is important country for us.
 
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Salaam to all the Muslims,

:pakistan:

This news can only mean much more closer to home and cheaper oil for Pakistan and China.

I just hope India spends a couple years in political wrangling with Iran over the oil matter while the refineries and oil pipelines are laid from Gwadar to China.

Good news I say.

Salaam to all the Muslims.
 
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to heck with sanctions. india need iranian oil and GOI should find some way to insure the companies. iran is important country for us.


There are more countries. why Iran alone?
UNO relations are sacrosanct for India.
As for crude oil, there are plenty fish in the pond.
 
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Salaam to all the Muslims,

:pakistan:

This news can only mean much more closer to home and cheaper oil for Pakistan and China.

I just hope India spends a couple years in political wrangling with Iran over the oil matter while the refineries and oil pipelines are laid from Gwadar to China.

Good news I say.

Salaam to all the Muslims.

China also have slashed 23% of the Iranian oil.

There are more countries. why Iran alone?
UNO relations are sacrosanct for India.
As for crude oil, there are plenty fish in the pond.

Possible replacement for Iran oil is Saudi oil but many in India don't like replacing Iran with Saudi Arabia. For most of the post-independent history, Saudis have mostly bashed India.
 
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China also have slashed 23% of the Iranian oil.



Possible replacement for Iran oil is Saudi oil but many in India don't like replacing Iran with Saudi Arabia. For most of the post-independent history, Saudis have mostly bashed India.

LET ME QUOTE:
With India under pressure from the US and other nations to cut its oil imports from Iran, which is being targeted with sanctions to prevent it from weaponizing its nuclear programme, Saudi Arabia has stepped forward to meet the shortfall

Saudi is India's second largest importer after Iran already.
 
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Iran sanction may hit expansion plans of Indian refiners
According to an official source, the INR 8,000 crore capacity expansion plan by Chennai Petroleum Corporation Limited may get hit as European companies are reluctant to give technology licensing for the upcoming 6 million tonne units. The company, along with Oil ans Natural Gas Corporations subsidiary Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited was struggling to get reinsurance following the fresh sanctions on February 6. While MRPL is the largest importer of Iran crude in the country, National Iranian Oil Company owns more than 15% stake in Indian Oil Corporations CPCL.

According to an official, the European majors have already told CPCL that if sanctions remain, it would be difficult for them to assure technological licensing. Confirming this, Mr AS Basu MD of CPCL said that “Our insurance is due on September and they are reluctant to reinsure the refinery. But a major problem is regarding technology licencing for upcoming units. Most of these companies are European firms and it has to be seen whether they will support us.”

Mr Basu said that on the other hand, there are concerns over assistance of getting technological catalysts for existing units from European companies, too. CPCL wants to come up with the additional 6 million tonne capacity by 2018 to 2019. With clouds over its future, CPCL is yet to decide on the number of units that they want to come up with. For some of the upcoming units, we can use open end technology but that will not serve the purpose for all.

Because of re insurance woes, companies such as Hindustan Petroleum Corporation were looking for other options, including importing from alternative sources such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. MRPL had cut down its imports from Iran. MRPLs imports are down 39% from 6.2 tonnes during the last financial year to 3.8 tonnes in the current financial year.

Recently, reports indicated that the government will ensure its refiners have insurance for plants that run crude from Iran. Recently, ONGCs Chairman and Managing Director Sudhir Vasudeva, too, expressed hope that the issue would be solved soon. According to reports, Iran would lose revenues worth more than USD 2.5 billion due to global sanctions. Importing countries may be forced to go for payment to Iran through exchange of goods and local currency.

Source - Business Standard
Iran sanction may hit expansion plans of Indian refiners - 304
 
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India trumps Pakistan's Iran rice trade boom with oil rupees
Iran's oil export revenues are helping Indian rice exporters to claw back some of the lucrative business lost to cross-border truckers in Pakistan as a result of Western sanctions.

Indian rice exports direct to Iran have bounced back, thanks to shippers being paid up front in rupees from a huge pool of oil money owed to Iran by Indian refiners.

"Now business is being done directly because Iran is allowed to open letters of credit in Indian rupees because the government has to pay money to Iran for the oil," said Suresh Manchanda, marketing director of a Delhi-based company which exports rice, wheat and sugar globally.

"For the importers back in Iran, Indian rupees are easily available to them via the government, so they can do business in a much easier way than doing business in any other currency," Manchanda told Reuters at the Gulf Food trade show in Dubai.

"For all practical purposes the money never leaves anywhere, the money is already in India."

India is Tehran's biggest rice supplier but shipments were held up in early 2012 after Iranian buyers defaulted on payments. Many Indian suppliers then stopped sales on credit.

Tightened sanctions on shipping and bank transfers between Iran and India started a boom in Pakistani rice trucked across the remote border into Iran by groups based in Quetta, grains traders from Pakistan and India said at the world's biggest food show last week.

Problems getting paid by private Iranian buyers hit by a slide in the value of the rial also saw the rice flow from India being routed through Dubai, with wholesalers there taking on the payment risk in return for a mark-up.

Before Western sanctions aimed at stopping Tehran's disputed nuclear programme began to bite, Indian official data show rice sales to the Islamic Republic were surging.

They more than doubled in the financial year of 2009-2010 and also rose in value by nearly 35 per cent to over $600 million from April 2011 to the end of March 2012, but this was a period when India's overall rice export earnings almost doubled in value globally.

Dubai's role in the India-Iran rice trade has withered since oil pool payments started.

From April 2011 to the end of March 2012, $821 million of Indian rice was shipped to the United Arab Emirates, more than anywhere else. But in just nine months from April to December last year Iran imported over $725 million of Indian rice, up 20 per cent on the previous 12 months, while Indian exports to the UAE slumped to $287 million, official figures show.

There is effectively no limit to how much Indian rice exports to Iran can be funded by the oil money pool, because even when India's oil imports from Iran fell more than 40 per cent from January 2012 to 2013, their value was still nearly $1 billion in one month.

"The new payment mechanism has been helping Indian rice exporters. Competitors in Pakistan don't have any such facility," M P Jindal, president of the All India Rice Millers Association said.

"This year we are estimating at least a 10 per cent rise in basmati rice exports. Exports are booming, especially to Iran and Iraq."

Pakistan exported around 30,000 tonnes of rice, worth $21 million, directly to Iran in the second half of 2012, a sharp fall from the 12 months to the end of June 2012 when sales approached 140,000 tonnes, according to the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP).

Pakistan's rice sales to the UAE, the main shipping route into Iran, also dropped sharply to less than 52,000 tonnes in the second half of 2012, compared to nearly 228,000 tonnes in the previous 12 months, REAP data showed.

Iran relies on imports for about 45 pct of its annual rice consumption of 2.9 million tonnes, according to US Department of Agriculture data.

END OF MONOPOLY

Iranian buyers prefer Indian basmati rice, but shipping and payment problems faced by Indian suppliers created an opportunity for Pakistani dealers based near the border with Iran to make big profits, rice exporters based in Karachi said.

Those willing to take the risk of trucking goods along hundreds of kilometres of highways of western Pakistan to the remote border area with Iran could charge premiums well above Indian rice prices.

"Last year India had a lot of currency issues and then Pakistan was selling at around a $150 premium over India because India could not sell to Iran directly... It became a monopoly," Mohammad Raza, a Karachi-based rice exporter, said.

"This year that's not happening... This year it has shrunk considerably, but it has not completely finished."

The success of India's oil pool for funding exports direct into Iranian ports over the last few months has hit Pakistan's rice truckers' profits hard, slashing premiums to well below $80/tonne in early 2013, he said.

These border traders who have problems getting paid by Iranian buyers are also driving a boom in barter of fuel for food, several rice traders at the show said.

"The trucks are not going to Iran. They used to go there but not anymore because the money is not coming from Iran to Pakistan so the trade has virtually stopped," Tariq Ghori, director of Karachi-based Matco Rice Processing Ltd, told Reuters at the Gulf Food trade fair in Dubai last week.

Matco, one of Pakistan's biggest Basmati rice exporters with sales of over 100,000 tonnes last year, and Raza's company were not part of the border food trade boom because the risks of shipping across Pakistan are high and the competition from Quetta-based groups fierce.

"They are done by people at the border. They have links with the Iranian people... Family ties, they know each other, speak the same language, so they do the trade," Ghori said.

"Big companies like us, sitting in the big cities, cannot do that trade."

Many mainstream competitors shipping out of Karachi still rely on Dubai middlemen buy their product and sell it on to Iran, putting them at a disadvantage to Indian exporters now able to ship direct.

Many Indian rice sales to Iran were also done through Dubai on credit until a slump in the rial in early 2012 prompted several Iranian buyers to default on payments. Since then most Dubai traders will only deal with Iranian buyers paying up front or brandishing a letter of credit from their government to tap the oil revenue pool in India.
India trumps Pakistan's Iran rice trade boom with oil rupees - Business - IBNLive

India trumps Pakistan's Iran rice trade boom with oil rupees
Iran's oil export revenues are helping Indian rice exporters to claw back some of the lucrative business lost to cross-border truckers in Pakistan as a result of Western sanctions.

Indian rice exports direct to Iran have bounced back, thanks to shippers being paid up front in rupees from a huge pool of oil money owed to Iran by Indian refiners.

"Now business is being done directly because Iran is allowed to open letters of credit in Indian rupees because the government has to pay money to Iran for the oil," said Suresh Manchanda, marketing director of a Delhi-based company which exports rice, wheat and sugar globally.

"For the importers back in Iran, Indian rupees are easily available to them via the government, so they can do business in a much easier way than doing business in any other currency," Manchanda told Reuters at the Gulf Food trade show in Dubai.

"For all practical purposes the money never leaves anywhere, the money is already in India."

India is Tehran's biggest rice supplier but shipments were held up in early 2012 after Iranian buyers defaulted on payments. Many Indian suppliers then stopped sales on credit.

Tightened sanctions on shipping and bank transfers between Iran and India started a boom in Pakistani rice trucked across the remote border into Iran by groups based in Quetta, grains traders from Pakistan and India said at the world's biggest food show last week.

Problems getting paid by private Iranian buyers hit by a slide in the value of the rial also saw the rice flow from India being routed through Dubai, with wholesalers there taking on the payment risk in return for a mark-up.

Before Western sanctions aimed at stopping Tehran's disputed nuclear programme began to bite, Indian official data show rice sales to the Islamic Republic were surging.

They more than doubled in the financial year of 2009-2010 and also rose in value by nearly 35 per cent to over $600 million from April 2011 to the end of March 2012, but this was a period when India's overall rice export earnings almost doubled in value globally.

Dubai's role in the India-Iran rice trade has withered since oil pool payments started.

From April 2011 to the end of March 2012, $821 million of Indian rice was shipped to the United Arab Emirates, more than anywhere else. But in just nine months from April to December last year Iran imported over $725 million of Indian rice, up 20 per cent on the previous 12 months, while Indian exports to the UAE slumped to $287 million, official figures show.

There is effectively no limit to how much Indian rice exports to Iran can be funded by the oil money pool, because even when India's oil imports from Iran fell more than 40 per cent from January 2012 to 2013, their value was still nearly $1 billion in one month.

"The new payment mechanism has been helping Indian rice exporters. Competitors in Pakistan don't have any such facility," M P Jindal, president of the All India Rice Millers Association said.

"This year we are estimating at least a 10 per cent rise in basmati rice exports. Exports are booming, especially to Iran and Iraq."

Pakistan exported around 30,000 tonnes of rice, worth $21 million, directly to Iran in the second half of 2012, a sharp fall from the 12 months to the end of June 2012 when sales approached 140,000 tonnes, according to the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan (REAP).

Pakistan's rice sales to the UAE, the main shipping route into Iran, also dropped sharply to less than 52,000 tonnes in the second half of 2012, compared to nearly 228,000 tonnes in the previous 12 months, REAP data showed.

Iran relies on imports for about 45 pct of its annual rice consumption of 2.9 million tonnes, according to US Department of Agriculture data.

END OF MONOPOLY

Iranian buyers prefer Indian basmati rice, but shipping and payment problems faced by Indian suppliers created an opportunity for Pakistani dealers based near the border with Iran to make big profits, rice exporters based in Karachi said.

Those willing to take the risk of trucking goods along hundreds of kilometres of highways of western Pakistan to the remote border area with Iran could charge premiums well above Indian rice prices.

"Last year India had a lot of currency issues and then Pakistan was selling at around a $150 premium over India because India could not sell to Iran directly... It became a monopoly," Mohammad Raza, a Karachi-based rice exporter, said.

"This year that's not happening... This year it has shrunk considerably, but it has not completely finished."

The success of India's oil pool for funding exports direct into Iranian ports over the last few months has hit Pakistan's rice truckers' profits hard, slashing premiums to well below $80/tonne in early 2013, he said.

These border traders who have problems getting paid by Iranian buyers are also driving a boom in barter of fuel for food, several rice traders at the show said.

"The trucks are not going to Iran. They used to go there but not anymore because the money is not coming from Iran to Pakistan so the trade has virtually stopped," Tariq Ghori, director of Karachi-based Matco Rice Processing Ltd, told Reuters at the Gulf Food trade fair in Dubai last week.

Matco, one of Pakistan's biggest Basmati rice exporters with sales of over 100,000 tonnes last year, and Raza's company were not part of the border food trade boom because the risks of shipping across Pakistan are high and the competition from Quetta-based groups fierce.

"They are done by people at the border. They have links with the Iranian people... Family ties, they know each other, speak the same language, so they do the trade," Ghori said.

"Big companies like us, sitting in the big cities, cannot do that trade."

Many mainstream competitors shipping out of Karachi still rely on Dubai middlemen buy their product and sell it on to Iran, putting them at a disadvantage to Indian exporters now able to ship direct.

Many Indian rice sales to Iran were also done through Dubai on credit until a slump in the rial in early 2012 prompted several Iranian buyers to default on payments. Since then most Dubai traders will only deal with Iranian buyers paying up front or brandishing a letter of credit from their government to tap the oil revenue pool in India.
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/india-trumps-pakistans-iran-rice-trade-boom-with-oil-rupees/377548-7.html
 
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Recently, reports indicated that the government will ensure its refiners have insurance for plants that run crude from Iran

Reinsurance is not a problem. Most of the underwriting of BIG ticket items have always been taken care by European companies of which loyds of London is the king.

If Indian government can bypass London and insure on its own - it would be okey.
But the story hardly ends here.
There is a technology transfer clauses to be adhered to religiously without violating them, then comes the import part of catalysts for refineries, without which they can not survive. It is not as simple as 1-2-3.

Catalytic reforming - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
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There are more countries. why Iran alone?
UNO relations are sacrosanct for India.
As for crude oil, there are plenty fish in the pond.
each oil refinery is built based on specific crude oil. those refineries in India which use Iranian crude oil can't just switch the source, this requires very heavy expenses and shutting down for a period of time, so in fact they need us as much we need them.
and what is the replacement? Saudi Arabia? I doubt china or India would ever switch to Saudi because of strategic consequences (regardless of technical matters). Saudi's dictators are under full control of US, they may decrease or cut off oil exports any time based on US interest,
Now the question is would India like to become dependent on US?
 
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each oil refinery is built based on specific crude oil. those refineries in India which use Iranian crude oil can't just switch the source, this requires very heavy expenses and shutting down for a period of time, so in fact they need us as much we need them.
and what is the replacement? Saudi Arabia? I doubt china or India would ever switch to Saudi because of strategic consequences (regardless of technical matters). Saudi's dictators are under full control of US, they may decrease or cut off oil exports any time based on US interest,
Now the question is would India like to become dependent on US?

Its not the US factors but Saudis unilateral support for Pakistan against India in all cases. So, Indians replaces Iran by Saudis is not a good option for us.
 
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India, US, Iran: The chessboard of diplomacy
American defence secretary Chuck Hagel’s remark that India “financed problems” for Pakistan in Afghanistan, as well as the new secretary of state John Kerry’s foray into Europe, select nations of West Asia and the Gulf, are signs that India-US relations are in a secondary slot.

These two worthies may be India lovers, but their pacifist and non-interventionist proclivities may be reflective of US President Barack Obama’s priorities in his second term. Undoubtedly, all capitals are monitoring this and adjusting policies accordingly.
A case in point is revived Iranian interest in India. The visits of the Iranian secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, who doubles as nuclear negotiator, in January, and Ali Larijani, the Majlis Speaker, last week assume significance. On hearing the former at the Observer Research Foundation and the latter on February 26 at the Indian Council of World Affairs, some conclusions can be drawn. At the latter function, I remarked that only a day earlier I had told the head of a US think tank that while they felt that Iran was reeling under the UN Security Council plus sanctions, Iran seemed to be concluding that the US was a retreating and declining power.
In reality, while the Iranian economy may be under strain, the national will and solidarity is far from cracking. Similarly, the US’ ability to rejuvenate and recalibrate its role in the world, riding the bonanza of cheap shale gas and the world’s best research and development, should not be underestimated. Many historical mishaps have been caused by such mutual misreads. As another Hegel, the German philosopher, said, “History teaches us that people have never learnt anything from history.”
This week’s Time magazine recounts the US administration debate on preventing nuclear weapon development by Iran versus containing an Iran with nuclear weapons. So far the US and Israel have retarded the Iranian nuclear programme through sabotage, cyber attacks and targeted assassinations. Resumed P5+1 dialogue with Iran at Almaty on February 26-27 has adjourned. Iranian tactics, since 2003, of dialogue to stave off pressure while ramping up its fuel-cycle capabilities, has incrementally enhanced its negotiating position. Bush administration red lines were that “not one” centrifuge would be permitted. Subsequently the Western negotiators first conceded a research reactor, then a cascade of centrifuges, further improved to allowing less than industrial production, and finally partial fuel cycle without 20 per cent uranium enrichment. At Almaty, reportedly, the offer has been further sweetened. Iran has improved its capabilities gradually, even installing newer and more efficient centrifuges, while keeping its 20 per cent enriched uranium below bomb-making quantities.
Two developments are emboldening Iran. One is the Democratic Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) defiance, reflected in its third nuclear test on February 11. Some reports speculate that Dr Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iranian nuclear scientist, witnessed the test. Close links of both Iran and DPRK to the Pakistani clandestine network of A.Q. Khan are common knowledge. Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in her biography recounts arranging the uranium-enrichment-for-missile-technology exchange between Pakistan and DPRK. Are DPRK’s nuclear tests a surrogate fine-tuning of Pakistani nuclear weapon designs? So far it is unknown whether the weapon was plutonium-based, of which DPRK has limited supply, or uranium-fed, which may be coming from a clandestine facility developed with Pakistani technology, Chinese endorsement and Iranian ore.
The second element is the perceived US retreat to its mainland, ceding strategic space to China, much as Great Britain did after the Second World War to the US. Mr Larijani confidently predicted the coming of a multipolar world of strategically independent nations, even when they were economically inter-dependent. Democracy and regionalism, he added, would be its two further attributes. He advocated elections in Syria and Bahrain, decrying unsuccessful US attempts to forcibly embed democracy. Ali Akbar Salehi, Iranian foreign minister, visiting Syria announced that President Bashar Assad will rule till elections in 2014. By knocking out two of Iran’s biggest foes, the Taliban in Afghanistan and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, the US opened up a seamless linkage of Shia rulers extending west from Iran till the Mediterranean, much like the Achaemenid Empire (550-330 BC). Against it rubs the Sunni-dominated sheikhdoms/kingdoms from the south, with active conflict in Syria, Bahrain, Yemen and now domestically in Pakistan.
The Iranian leadership is assessing if Indian nervousness over Afghanistan post-US withdrawal combined with incantations about energy cooperation and transit rights to Central Asia can be harnessed to reel India back towards it. At stake are critical global issues like non-proliferation, terrorism, Islam grappling with modernity and the role of China. This year’s Oscar-winning film Argo, about the escape of some US diplomatic hostages from Iran in 1980, when the bulk were held for 14 months, refreshes US memory of Iranian perfidy. Zbigniew Brzezinski, the then national security adviser, concludes in his biography that five months into the crisis “...the Iranians either had been negotiating in bad faith or were unable to deliver on promises”.
Mr Obama’s second term has opened sloppily. His excessive cogitation before decisive action is perhaps his style. He took till end 2009 to decide on a troop surge in Afghanistan. Will we see similar correctives applied to finesse the game in Syria, Afghanistan, seas to China’s east and south and then a return to where he began his presidency i.e. non-proliferation and major nuclear disarmament? India, distracted by domestic turbulence in Bangladesh, defiance in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, drift in Pakistan and constitutional stasis in Nepal, combined with a slowing economy and corruption allegations in defence deals, needs to reposition itself to temper Iranian bravado and encourage a continued American global role if Asia has to see a peaceful future.

The writer is a former secretary in the external affairs ministry

India, US, Iran: The chessboard of diplomacy | The Asian Age

India, US, Iran: The chessboard of diplomacy
American defence secretary Chuck Hagel’s remark that India “financed problems” for Pakistan in Afghanistan, as well as the new secretary of state John Kerry’s foray into Europe, select nations of West Asia and the Gulf, are signs that India-US relations are in a secondary slot.

These two worthies may be India lovers, but their pacifist and non-interventionist proclivities may be reflective of US President Barack Obama’s priorities in his second term. Undoubtedly, all capitals are monitoring this and adjusting policies accordingly.
A case in point is revived Iranian interest in India. The visits of the Iranian secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Saeed Jalili, who doubles as nuclear negotiator, in January, and Ali Larijani, the Majlis Speaker, last week assume significance. On hearing the former at the Observer Research Foundation and the latter on February 26 at the Indian Council of World Affairs, some conclusions can be drawn. At the latter function, I remarked that only a day earlier I had told the head of a US think tank that while they felt that Iran was reeling under the UN Security Council plus sanctions, Iran seemed to be concluding that the US was a retreating and declining power.
In reality, while the Iranian economy may be under strain, the national will and solidarity is far from cracking. Similarly, the US’ ability to rejuvenate and recalibrate its role in the world, riding the bonanza of cheap shale gas and the world’s best research and development, should not be underestimated. Many historical mishaps have been caused by such mutual misreads. As another Hegel, the German philosopher, said, “History teaches us that people have never learnt anything from history.”
This week’s Time magazine recounts the US administration debate on preventing nuclear weapon development by Iran versus containing an Iran with nuclear weapons. So far the US and Israel have retarded the Iranian nuclear programme through sabotage, cyber attacks and targeted assassinations. Resumed P5+1 dialogue with Iran at Almaty on February 26-27 has adjourned. Iranian tactics, since 2003, of dialogue to stave off pressure while ramping up its fuel-cycle capabilities, has incrementally enhanced its negotiating position. Bush administration red lines were that “not one” centrifuge would be permitted. Subsequently the Western negotiators first conceded a research reactor, then a cascade of centrifuges, further improved to allowing less than industrial production, and finally partial fuel cycle without 20 per cent uranium enrichment. At Almaty, reportedly, the offer has been further sweetened. Iran has improved its capabilities gradually, even installing newer and more efficient centrifuges, while keeping its 20 per cent enriched uranium below bomb-making quantities.
Two developments are emboldening Iran. One is the Democratic Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) defiance, reflected in its third nuclear test on February 11. Some reports speculate that Dr Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iranian nuclear scientist, witnessed the test. Close links of both Iran and DPRK to the Pakistani clandestine network of A.Q. Khan are common knowledge. Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in her biography recounts arranging the uranium-enrichment-for-missile-technology exchange between Pakistan and DPRK. Are DPRK’s nuclear tests a surrogate fine-tuning of Pakistani nuclear weapon designs? So far it is unknown whether the weapon was plutonium-based, of which DPRK has limited supply, or uranium-fed, which may be coming from a clandestine facility developed with Pakistani technology, Chinese endorsement and Iranian ore.
The second element is the perceived US retreat to its mainland, ceding strategic space to China, much as Great Britain did after the Second World War to the US. Mr Larijani confidently predicted the coming of a multipolar world of strategically independent nations, even when they were economically inter-dependent. Democracy and regionalism, he added, would be its two further attributes. He advocated elections in Syria and Bahrain, decrying unsuccessful US attempts to forcibly embed democracy. Ali Akbar Salehi, Iranian foreign minister, visiting Syria announced that President Bashar Assad will rule till elections in 2014. By knocking out two of Iran’s biggest foes, the Taliban in Afghanistan and Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, the US opened up a seamless linkage of Shia rulers extending west from Iran till the Mediterranean, much like the Achaemenid Empire (550-330 BC). Against it rubs the Sunni-dominated sheikhdoms/kingdoms from the south, with active conflict in Syria, Bahrain, Yemen and now domestically in Pakistan.
The Iranian leadership is assessing if Indian nervousness over Afghanistan post-US withdrawal combined with incantations about energy cooperation and transit rights to Central Asia can be harnessed to reel India back towards it. At stake are critical global issues like non-proliferation, terrorism, Islam grappling with modernity and the role of China. This year’s Oscar-winning film Argo, about the escape of some US diplomatic hostages from Iran in 1980, when the bulk were held for 14 months, refreshes US memory of Iranian perfidy. Zbigniew Brzezinski, the then national security adviser, concludes in his biography that five months into the crisis “...the Iranians either had been negotiating in bad faith or were unable to deliver on promises”.
Mr Obama’s second term has opened sloppily. His excessive cogitation before decisive action is perhaps his style. He took till end 2009 to decide on a troop surge in Afghanistan. Will we see similar correctives applied to finesse the game in Syria, Afghanistan, seas to China’s east and south and then a return to where he began his presidency i.e. non-proliferation and major nuclear disarmament? India, distracted by domestic turbulence in Bangladesh, defiance in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, drift in Pakistan and constitutional stasis in Nepal, combined with a slowing economy and corruption allegations in defence deals, needs to reposition itself to temper Iranian bravado and encourage a continued American global role if Asia has to see a peaceful future.

The writer is a former secretary in the external affairs ministry

http://www.asianage.com/columnists/india-us-iran-chessboard-diplomacy-283
 
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