India to continue trailing Bangladesh's per capita income over next 6 years: IMF data

[Wood]

Stalled growth? Where did get that from?

I meant slowed from previous projected numbers

 

[my2cents]

India to continue trailing Bangladesh's per capita income over next 6 years: IMF data​

India is likely to trail its neighbour by $200 in 2027-2028, as per IMF projections. The data is based on gross domestic product per capita at current prices in dollars.​

ET Now Digital​

Updated May 11, 2022 | 12:48 PM IST

India to continue trailing Bangladesh's per capita income in next 6 years: IMF
Photo : iStock

India may have overtaken neighbouring Bangladesh on the per capita income front in 2021-22 after Dhaka took an edge on the economic metric in the last few years, according to International Monterey Fund (IMF) projections.

However, the lead will be difficult to maintain as India’s per capita income is expected to trail that of Bangladesh’s in the next few years starting 2022-23, according to a report in Business Standard.

India’s per capita income is projected to take a minor lead of $38 over Bangladesh’s in 2021-22. The average income earned by a Bangladeshi citizen was found to be $1,962 in 2020-21 against $1,935 pocketed by an average Indian.

India is likely to trail its neighbour by $200 in 2027-2028, as per IMF projections. The data is based on gross domestic product per capita at current prices in dollars.

It is to be noted that Bangladesh is a notable exporter of textiles, which is a labour-intensive industry. The industry contributes 20% to Bangladesh’s GDP and accounts for 80% of Dhaka’s merchandise exports.

Bangladesh is the second-biggest South Asian economy after India. It has managed a consistent 6% GDP growth over the last 6 years.

It managed to grow even during the pandemic while other nations, including India. contracted.

India to continue trailing Bangladesh's per capita income over next 6 years: IMF data

India is likely to trail its neighbour by $200 in 2027-2028, as per IMF projections. The data is based on gross domestic product per capita at current prices in dollars., Economy News, Times Now

www.timesnownews.com

India is much bigger country compared to Bd. West Bengal may be better comparison in my opinion.

 

[Wood]

To be honest everyone tends to underestimate BD growth projections and this fiscal BD may touch 8% GDP growth as exports are up by a massive 40% so far in the first 10 months compared to the same period in the previous fiscal.

IMF projection is 6.4% for FY 22 and 6.7% for FY 23 ? Where is the 8% projection sourced from?

 

[UKBengali]

IMF projection is 6.4% for FY 22 and 6.7% for FY 23 ? Where is the 8% projection sourced from?

That is my figure as no-one was expecting 40% export growth in BD this fiscal.

IMF projection shows just 10% growth in exports this fiscal.

BD government thinks 7.5% but I think 8% at least will probably be the actual figure.

 

[damiendehorn2]

IMF projection is 6.4% for FY 22 and 6.7% for FY 23 ? Where is the 8% projection sourced from?

That's the point the IMF has consistently under estimated Bangladesh's growth.

 

[Wood]

RBI's own estimate this year is only 7.2%. This is much less than IMF's 8.2% projection. Not sure what to believe. We'll see when the figures are published later

 

[mb444]

RBI's own estimate this year is only 7.2%. This is much less than IMF's 8.2% projection. Not sure what to believe. We'll see when the figures are published later

IMF predict BD will stay ahead of india for the next 5 years on a nominal basis. There are always 1-2% differentials because economic models have internal bias and differing bases. I would concentrate on trends rather than absolute values. The differences wont be much really, both countries are tracking way below their potentials.


Here is a assessment by an indian commentator.

 

[Wood]

IMF predict BD will stay ahead of india for the next 5 years on a nominal basis. Here is a assessment by an indian commentator.

... yes, but now IMF has revised their assessment to say that it will not happen this year.

 

[mb444]

... yes, but now IMF has revised their assessment to say that it will not happen this year.

Well its predictions... take it with a pinch of salt.... but BD is on an upswing and may it continue.

 

[Cheepek]

Latest GDP per capita nominal for 2022 to nearest 100 dollars:

BD: 2400 US dollars
India: 2300 US dollars

There is nothing much in it and the Indians may slightly surpass BD as they are predicted to grow quicker this year and next before growth in BD again surpasses India over the medium term.

The problem with India is that the high performing states like Gujarat and Maharastra are being held back by huge low growing states like Utta Pradesh. Utta Pradesh has a population of 240 million and that is like BD and W Bengal combined!

It is therefore not surprising that BD has passed India and will build up a somewhat sizeable lead over the all-India average.

My prediction is that by the middle of the next decade that BD will probably have living standards on par with the richest Indian states like Gujarat and Maharastra.

Why are you citing FY23 projections?

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[Bilal9]

India is much bigger country compared to Bd. West Bengal may be better comparison in my opinion.

West Bengal GSDP is lower than that of Bangladesh at $1700 vs. almost $2300 in Bangladesh case (nominal).

Bigger country does not mean anything when you count per capita figures.

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Two Bengals, two economies

Bangladesh and West Bengal have much in common, including language, fertile land, abundant rainfall and warm year-round temperatures and a dense population

www.telegraphindia.com

Two Bengals, two economies​

Bangladesh and West Bengal have much in common, including language, fertile land, abundant rainfall and warm year-round temperatures and a dense population

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee during the historic pink-ball day/night cricket test match between India and Bangladesh, at the Eden Gardens in Kolkata, on Friday, Nov. 22, 2019.
PTI file photo

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Arindam Banik, Sunil Bhandari | Published 02.11.20, 02:08 AM

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According to the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook report, Bangladesh has eclipsed India in terms of per capita income. Bangladesh is expected to grow its per capita income by 4 per cent in 2020 to US$1,888. India’s per capita GDP is expected to contract by 10.5 percent to $1,877.

Bangladesh and West Bengal have much in common, including language, fertile land, abundant rainfall and warm year-round temperatures and a dense population. Some critics were not sure about Bangladesh’s sustainability as an independent nation. The country faced severe disruptions after its liberation in 1971, such as famine, natural calamities, military coups and fanaticism. West Bengal, too, has been marked by migration from East Pakistan, a strained relationship with the Centre, archaic leftist politics, natural calamities as well as a rudderless development policy.


In spite of the challenges, Bangladesh’s performance based on select socio-economic parameters has been better than that of West Bengal. According to the IMF, the country grew by 5.24 per cent during the financial year, 2019-20, raising its per capita income by $155 to $1,888. The average per capita income of West Bengal was reported to be $1,500 during the same period.

When it comes to sector-wise contributions, the services sector was the largest in the two Bengals, contributing 59 per cent in West Bengal and 52 per cent in Bangladesh. The manufacturing sector comes second, generating 34 per cent of Bangladesh’s GDP. In West Bengal, the share of agriculture was 21 per cent, followed by manufacturing at 20 per cent. Agriculture, however, was at the third spot in Bangladesh, contributing only 14 per cent. In 2019, about 38 per cent of the total labour force was active in the agricultural sector in Bangladesh. In contrast, the figure is as high as 43 per cent in West Bengal.

The manufacturing industry, especially ready-made garments, has become a major contributor — 84 per cent — to Bangladesh’s total exports ($45.13 billion in June 2020) and engages four million people. Significantly, it contributes 11 per cent to the total GDP.

Bangladesh’s garments sector has also benefited from countries such as China because a number of sunset firms have moved there on account of increasing labor costs. West Bengal could have become a strong garment hub in India if only successive state governments and policymakers had the vision and strategies in place to recognize the state’s potential. Currently, the textile and apparel sector in West Bengal accounts for about 9 per cent of the state domestic product and employs around two million people.

Bengalis in Bangladesh have also outperformed Bengalis of West Bengal on most social indicators. Bengalis residing in the east can expect to live three years longer than their counterparts in the west. Bangladesh has achieved some of the largest reductions in the early death of infants; it has more females than males, and the status of women within the household has improved considerably.

Eighty per cent of the workers in the ready-made garments sector are women. They are now the decision-makers at the household level, having a say on such critical issues as family health, education and nutrition.

Bangladesh has decided to follow the best practices of development without any political bias. This, then, brings us to the following question: is economic growth a necessary condition for social progress? The story of Bangladesh imparts some telling lessons.

West Bengal, on the other hand, became a crucible for experimental adventurism in its development model and suffered at the hands of errant policymakers and myopic politicians. Consequently, Bengalis in this part of Bengal are still struggling to find what would change their lives for the better.

 

[Tigers]

... yes, but now IMF has revised their assessment to say that it will not happen this year.

Whether it happens this or next year makes no difference. The trend is what is important and there Bangladesh will remain a high growth rate story ahead of India. Because Bangladesh is working to grow the economy and India is trying to create a ram rajya.

 

[Wood]

Whether it happens this or next year makes no difference. The trend is what is important and there Bangladesh will remain a high growth rate story ahead of India. Because Bangladesh is working to grow the economy and India is trying to create a ram rajya.

.. the 'trend' is just a projection, the first step of which is already revised. Also, IMF does not say anything about Ram Rajya

 

[Tigers]

.. the 'trend' is just a projection, the first step of which is already revised. Also, IMF does not say anything about Ram Rajya

... the trend is based on data and consistent growth for decades. Ram rajya politics is a mainstay of Indian elections. No one needs IMF to tell us that.

 

[Wood]

... the trend is based on data and consistent growth for decades. Ram rajya politics is a mainstay of Indian elections. No one needs IMF to tell us that.

There are many mainstays in Indian politics. No country is unilaterally committed to economy.

India has also been growing. In fact, IMF predicts that it will grow faster than Bangladesh this year and next.