India to continue trailing Bangladesh's per capita income over next 6 years: IMF data

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India to continue trailing Bangladesh's per capita income over next 6 years: IMF data​

India is likely to trail its neighbour by $200 in 2027-2028, as per IMF projections. The data is based on gross domestic product per capita at current prices in dollars.​

ET Now Digital​

Updated May 11, 2022 | 12:48 PM IST

India to continue trailing Bangladesh's per capita income in next 6 years: IMF
Photo : iStock

India may have overtaken neighbouring Bangladesh on the per capita income front in 2021-22 after Dhaka took an edge on the economic metric in the last few years, according to International Monterey Fund (IMF) projections.

However, the lead will be difficult to maintain as India’s per capita income is expected to trail that of Bangladesh’s in the next few years starting 2022-23, according to a report in Business Standard.

India’s per capita income is projected to take a minor lead of $38 over Bangladesh’s in 2021-22. The average income earned by a Bangladeshi citizen was found to be $1,962 in 2020-21 against $1,935 pocketed by an average Indian.

India is likely to trail its neighbour by $200 in 2027-2028, as per IMF projections. The data is based on gross domestic product per capita at current prices in dollars.

It is to be noted that Bangladesh is a notable exporter of textiles, which is a labour-intensive industry. The industry contributes 20% to Bangladesh’s GDP and accounts for 80% of Dhaka’s merchandise exports.

Bangladesh is the second-biggest South Asian economy after India. It has managed a consistent 6% GDP growth over the last 6 years.

It managed to grow even during the pandemic while other nations, including India. contracted.

India to continue trailing Bangladesh's per capita income over next 6 years: IMF data

India is likely to trail its neighbour by $200 in 2027-2028, as per IMF projections. The data is based on gross domestic product per capita at current prices in dollars., Economy News, Times Now

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[LakeHawk180]

That’s incredible! Good for Bangladesh. I hope we are able to catch up soon.

 

[damiendehorn2]

That’s incredible! Good for Bangladesh. I hope we are able to catch up soon.

Unlikely, if all the infrastructures being built in Bangladesh and the SEZs. The difference is likely to grow further.

 

[LakeHawk180]

Unlikely, if all the infrastructures being built in Bangladesh and the SEZs. The difference is likely to grow further.

Well we can always hope. Bangladesh’s recent growth is really quite inspiring.

This is what peace/friendly relations with your neighbours and internal stability brings to a nation.

 

[damiendehorn2]

Well we can always hope. Bangladesh’s recent growth is really quite inspiring.

This is what peace/friendly relations with your neighbours and internal stability brings to a nation.

Well there's way more to come. Bangladesh grew at around 6-7% in the past decade and should grow at least 7-8% in the next decade. Bangladesh is focusing on diversifying away from just RMGs to Leather, White Goods, Pharma, Electronics, ICT etc.

 

[Wood]

Why did India overtake Bangladesh this year? I remember the IMF prediction that Bangladesh would be in lead this year as well

 

[damiendehorn2]

Why did India overtake Bangladesh this year? I remember the IMF prediction that Bangladesh would be in lead this year as well

It didn't. India was predicted to but Bangladesh is still ahead.

 

[Wood]

It didn't. India was predicted to but Bangladesh is still ahead.

Then why is the article that you posted making the claim that India may have overtaken Bangladesh this year?

 

[UKBengali]

Why did India overtake Bangladesh this year? I remember the IMF prediction that Bangladesh would be in lead this year as well

Latest GDP per capita nominal for 2022 to nearest 100 dollars:

BD: 2400 US dollars
India: 2300 US dollars

There is nothing much in it and the Indians may slightly surpass BD as they are predicted to grow quicker this year and next before growth in BD again surpasses India over the medium term.

The problem with India is that the high performing states like Gujarat and Maharastra are being held back by huge low growing states like Utta Pradesh. Utta Pradesh has a population of 240 million and that is like BD and W Bengal combined!

It is therefore not surprising that BD has passed India and will build up a somewhat sizeable lead over the all-India average.

My prediction is that by the middle of the next decade that BD will probably have living standards on par with the richest Indian states like Gujarat and Maharastra.

 

[damiendehorn2]

Then why is the article that you posted making the claim that India may have overtaken Bangladesh this year?

I didn't post the article. Check the latest data from your RBI to get the latest nominal GDP of india (April 2022).

 

[Wood]

Latest GDP per capita nominal for 2022 to nearest 100 dollars:

BD: 2400 US dollars
India: 2300 US dollars

There is nothing much in it and the Indians may slightly surpass BD as they are predicted to grow quicker this year and next before growth in BD again surpasses India over the medium term.

The problem with India is that the high performing states like Gujarat and Maharastra are being held back by huge low growing states like Utta Pradesh. Utta Pradesh has a population of 240 million and that is like BD and W Bengal combined!

It is therefore not surprising that BD has passed India and will build up a somewhat sizeable lead over the all-India average.

Yes, I know that Indian states have disparity in growth. Bihar and UP have less than $1000 per capita. Maharastra and Gujarat are not the bigger states that have high GDP per capita in India.

I didn't post the article. Check the latest data from your RBI to get the latest nominal GDP of india (April 2022).

I meant the article that is posted. No matter who posted it.

Seems like IMF's projection does not even hold for 1 year. Very strange.

 

[damiendehorn2]

Yes, I know that Indian states have disparity in growth. Bihar and UP have less than $1000 per capita. Maharastra and Gujarat are not the bigger states that have high GDP per capita in India.


I meant the article that is posted. No matter who posted it.

Seems like IMF's projection does not even hold for 1 year. Very strange.

IMF has never been really good at long term predictions, ADB is far better at data analysis for Asia.

 

[Wood]

I still wonder why Bangladesh growth projection has stalled this year? Any particular reason or just bad projection to begin with?

 

[damiendehorn2]

I still wonder why Bangladesh growth projection has stalled this year? Any particular reason or just bad projection to begin with?

Stalled growth? Where did get that from?

 

[UKBengali]

I still wonder why Bangladesh growth projection has stalled this year? Any particular reason or just bad projection to begin with?

To be honest everyone tends to underestimate BD growth projections and this fiscal BD may touch 8% GDP growth as exports are up by a massive 40% so far in the first 10 months compared to the same period in the previous fiscal.