IbnAbdullah
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Salaam
Thank you for giving a proper answer. This was the sort of answer and answers that I look and hope for when I open discussion threads. Please do share your views even if it feels most just prefer childish banter.
I personally have a different view of the CCP and I think they have planned this out to great extent. They have shown themselves to be good planners and have thus far been able to achieve a lot with good planning and execution.
To me it seems unlikely that they'd open a new front with India - especially given that they've been prepping that theater for an escalation with troops and training for few years now - without much wargaming.
Another issue that I find interesting is that the Chinese have not really been trying to much to de-escalate too much. They've been putting forth demands that the Indians find hard to accept.
It is possible, as you say that it was some 'rogue' elements of the military leadership that pushed China into this confrontation. However, it seems more like to me that they've probably planned this out at high level with some sort of objectives in mind.
Whether those objectives are directly India related or whether they are using this to achieve something on the international stage (or a mixture or the two and more), I don't know.
Anyways, here's a question, assuming your assessment is closer to the reality, how do you see this whole conflict moving forward?
I'm pretty knowledgeable of many things about China from their foreign policy and objective perspective. But this forum is not conducive to any constructive conversations around them, so I'll be as brief as possible in my answer.
Here are a few thoughts on the subject among US foreign and military policy think tanks. In no particular order
1. There is a serious conversation among US intelligence that thinks this action was done without Beijing's full knowledge. General Zhao Zongqi, who heads the Chinese Army's West Theatre Command, is a well-known hothead. It's has been a long-standing belief among US intelligence groups that the Chinese party heads don't have full control over their Generals i.e. Their military goes rogue at times - which, as you can imagine, is extremely dangerous.
A quick example of going rogue- US Sec of Defense under George W Bush, named Robert Gates, was on an official visit to China. It's an accepted protocol that when such a head comes to your country, you avoid military trials or showboat your military assets specifically made to attack that country (the US in this case). The Chinese general ordered a test of the J20 on that day Gates was visiting with the Chinese President. Robert Gates publically stated that the Chinese political leaders were taken by surprise when he informed of the test and seemed visibly flabbergasted.
2. Another possible reason for this is pretty straightforward. It's about China's venture in Doklam. That exchange with India was an outright embarrassing result for China. The Chinese have been sitting on a plan to try and humiliate India ever since. It's just how they are; they will push and prod till you pushback.
BUT it seems China did not imagine the kind of retaliation India has doled out. Sanctions, the complete tilt to the quad, the removal of Chinese investment and future in the Indian market, and of course, the potential loss of 100's of billions of dollars in future trade and all over an unhabitable strip of land. What India has done is just the tip of the iceberg; India is actively moving to divest from China & ultimately treat China as a trading partner similar to Pakistan.
What did they hope for as an outcome?
Ultimately, they had two end goals—one where India just walked away and did not wish to confront. Second, in the absence of the first, you saw what they just offered to India. Which was they will back off Indian territory as long as India also backs off and creates a buffer zone. Effectively, asking India to back off its land.
IMO, there is going to be inevitable Indian military retaliation eventually if they don't go back to the past agreements in place.
I hope you found my reply interesting and meaningful.
Thank you for giving a proper answer. This was the sort of answer and answers that I look and hope for when I open discussion threads. Please do share your views even if it feels most just prefer childish banter.
I personally have a different view of the CCP and I think they have planned this out to great extent. They have shown themselves to be good planners and have thus far been able to achieve a lot with good planning and execution.
To me it seems unlikely that they'd open a new front with India - especially given that they've been prepping that theater for an escalation with troops and training for few years now - without much wargaming.
Another issue that I find interesting is that the Chinese have not really been trying to much to de-escalate too much. They've been putting forth demands that the Indians find hard to accept.
It is possible, as you say that it was some 'rogue' elements of the military leadership that pushed China into this confrontation. However, it seems more like to me that they've probably planned this out at high level with some sort of objectives in mind.
Whether those objectives are directly India related or whether they are using this to achieve something on the international stage (or a mixture or the two and more), I don't know.
Anyways, here's a question, assuming your assessment is closer to the reality, how do you see this whole conflict moving forward?
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. Numerous sources have already pointed to 50+ Indian soldiers killed ... and yet your military still maintains 20. So it looks like some soldiers were "martyred" while others weren't even mentioned at all lmao. Must suck to be them.
