‘India might not be able to defend itself from Pakistani missiles’

[HAIDER]

ISLAMABAD: A nuclear expert from Moscow says despite heavy investments in developing anti-ballistic missile systems, India may not be able to fully defend itself in a conflict from strikes by Pakistani missiles.

“Even in 10 years and with the huge budgets that India plans to spend on the development of nuclear weapons and capabilities, it is difficult to imagine it will be able to defend its territory from possible strikes from Pakistan in case of conflict,” said Petr Topychkanov, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Moscow Centre’s Non-Proliferation Programme.

Talking about ‘Non-Proliferation and Strategic Stability in South Asia: A Russian Perspective’ at the Strategic Vision Institute (SIV) which is an Islamabad-based think tank specialising in nuclear issues, Mr Topychkanov said that despite largescale cooperation between India and Israel for the development of a ballistic missile defence system and Indian efforts for acquiring S-400 defence systems from Russia, “India is very far from developing any system that could effectively defend itself from a Pakistani missile”.

Last Sunday India tested an Advanced Air Defence (AAD) interceptor missile and is working on developing a multi-layer ballistic missile defence system and Pakistan has expressed concerns over the test.

It is feared that the development of anti-ballistic missile systems may give Indian strategists a false sense of security when contemplating military action against Pakistan with the belief that they can take care of an incoming missile.

The possession of such a system could also increase pre-emption tendencies among Indian military planners. Pakistan experts also feel that with the short missile flight time between India and Pakistan, it will be impossible for intercepting incoming missiles.

Talking about India’s candidature for the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) Mr Topychkanov said the world will be cautious about India.

“The nuclear waiver given to Indian became a very important part of the lesson for the international community because Delhi did not give a lot in exchange, it didn’t change policies and approaches,” he said.

When it was getting the waiver from NSG following an India-US Civilian Nuclear Agreement, India had committed that it will separate its civilian and military nuclear facilities in a phased manner, place civil nuclear facilities under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, sign and adhere to IAEA’s additional protocol, continue its unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing, work with the US for the conclusion of the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT), refrain from the transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technology to states that do not have them and support international efforts to limit their spread, introduce comprehensive export control legislation to secure nuclear material and adhere to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and NSG guidelines.

Mr Topychkanov said it would not be the same this time because India will have to show “serious progress in relations with IAEA, UN and the international nuclear community”.

Meanwhile, also claiming to have sound credentials for becoming an NSG member, Pakistan won rare acknowledgement from the US for its “significant efforts to harmonise its strategic trade controls with those of the NSG and other multilateral export control regimes” on Tuesday at a meeting of the Pak-US Security, Strategic Stability, and Nonproliferation (SSS&NP) Working Group.

Talking about Russia’s policy for strategic stability in South Asia, the Mr Topychkanov said Moscow is interested in regional strategic stability and is working on avoiding crisis in the area.

He said despite longstanding strategic partnership with India, Russia was developing relations with both Islamabad and Delhi.

SVI President Dr Zafar Iqbal Cheema expressed concern about the deteriorating strategic balance in the region because of India’s acquisition of conventional and nuclear weapons and said such developments seriously impact Pakistan’s interests.

Published in Dawn, May 19th, 2016

 

[Hellfire]

Who said it shall be able to defend itself fully? Even they cant defend themselves fully!!!!

 

[Perpendicular]

Paigi thand hun....... ?

 

[kabooter_maila]

ISLAMABAD: A nuclear expert from Moscow says despite heavy investments in developing anti-ballistic missile systems, India may not be able to fully defend itself in a conflict from strikes by Pakistani missiles.

“Even in 10 years and with the huge budgets that India plans to spend on the development of nuclear weapons and capabilities, it is difficult to imagine it will be able to defend its territory from possible strikes from Pakistan in case of conflict,” said Petr Topychkanov, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Moscow Centre’s Non-Proliferation Programme.

Talking about ‘Non-Proliferation and Strategic Stability in South Asia: A Russian Perspective’ at the Strategic Vision Institute (SIV) which is an Islamabad-based think tank specialising in nuclear issues, Mr Topychkanov said that despite largescale cooperation between India and Israel for the development of a ballistic missile defence system and Indian efforts for acquiring S-400 defence systems from Russia, “India is very far from developing any system that could effectively defend itself from a Pakistani missile”.

Last Sunday India tested an Advanced Air Defence (AAD) interceptor missile and is working on developing a multi-layer ballistic missile defence system and Pakistan has expressed concerns over the test.

It is feared that the development of anti-ballistic missile systems may give Indian strategists a false sense of security when contemplating military action against Pakistan with the belief that they can take care of an incoming missile.

The possession of such a system could also increase pre-emption tendencies among Indian military planners. Pakistan experts also feel that with the short missile flight time between India and Pakistan, it will be impossible for intercepting incoming missiles.

Talking about India’s candidature for the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) Mr Topychkanov said the world will be cautious about India.

“The nuclear waiver given to Indian became a very important part of the lesson for the international community because Delhi did not give a lot in exchange, it didn’t change policies and approaches,” he said.

When it was getting the waiver from NSG following an India-US Civilian Nuclear Agreement, India had committed that it will separate its civilian and military nuclear facilities in a phased manner, place civil nuclear facilities under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards, sign and adhere to IAEA’s additional protocol, continue its unilateral moratorium on nuclear testing, work with the US for the conclusion of the Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT), refrain from the transfer of enrichment and reprocessing technology to states that do not have them and support international efforts to limit their spread, introduce comprehensive export control legislation to secure nuclear material and adhere to the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and NSG guidelines.

Mr Topychkanov said it would not be the same this time because India will have to show “serious progress in relations with IAEA, UN and the international nuclear community”.

Meanwhile, also claiming to have sound credentials for becoming an NSG member, Pakistan won rare acknowledgement from the US for its “significant efforts to harmonise its strategic trade controls with those of the NSG and other multilateral export control regimes” on Tuesday at a meeting of the Pak-US Security, Strategic Stability, and Nonproliferation (SSS&NP) Working Group.

Talking about Russia’s policy for strategic stability in South Asia, the Mr Topychkanov said Moscow is interested in regional strategic stability and is working on avoiding crisis in the area.

He said despite longstanding strategic partnership with India, Russia was developing relations with both Islamabad and Delhi.

SVI President Dr Zafar Iqbal Cheema expressed concern about the deteriorating strategic balance in the region because of India’s acquisition of conventional and nuclear weapons and said such developments seriously impact Pakistan’s interests.

Published in Dawn, May 19th, 2016

If Indians chose to spend their resources on developing anti-ballistic missile technologies, it is their choice. First of all, such technologies are not the monopoly of just a few nations any more. Many commercially available (Russian and Chinese) systems have that capability. One thing that needs to be remembered is that there is no foolproof system that can provide 100% protection against ballistic missiles. Indians love creating hype and boasting their non-existent capabilities. Let them eat uncooked beef. If they want to waste their resources, at Least I have no objections. Coming back to the topic, two factors are crucial in any ballistic missile defense system. First being how much reaction/lead time is available and second how many incoming missiles can presumably be knocked down simultaneously. Both factors are working against Indians. They need to realize that they are not facing just the dumb scud missiles. They will have to knock out much smaller, faster, and smarter re-entry war heads - multiple of them released from one missile, and then volleys of advancing missiles. If they think they can do that, do we care? Probably no. But that should be a matter of serious concern for the international community because the false sense of their capabilities can push Indians into miscalculations that might lead to devastating show down between the two neighbors. We have pretty much knowledge of how much capable Indians are. Their stupidity can deceive them with grave consequences for the globe.

 

[Photon]

If Indians chose to spend their resources on developing anti-ballistic missile technologies, it is their choice. First of all, such technologies are not the monopoly of just a few nations any more. Many commercially available (Russian and Chinese) systems have that capability. One thing that needs to be remembered is that there is no foolproof system that can provide 100% protection against ballistic missiles. Indians love creating hype and boasting their non-existent capabilities. Let them eat uncooked beef. If they want to waste their resources, at Least I have no objections. Coming back to the topic, two factors are crucial in any ballistic missile defense system. First being how much reaction/lead time is available and second how many incoming missiles can presumably be knocked down simultaneously. Both factors are working against Indians. They need to realize that they are not facing just the dumb scud missiles. They will have to knock out much smaller, faster, and smarter re-entry war heads - multiple of them released from one missile, and then volleys of advancing missiles. If they think they can do that, do we care? Probably no. But that should be a matter of serious concern for the international community because the false sense of their capabilities can push Indians into miscalculations that might lead to devastating show down between the two neighbors. We have pretty much knowledge of how much capable Indians are. Their stupidity can deceive them with grave consequences for the globe.

ABM tech around the world, is in its nascent stage, but there will come a time , when such technology, would have fully evolved, would be able knock out missiles, with a hundred percent effectiveness. It might be in 10 - 20 or 50 years.

Those nations, who took the lead now, in developing such technologies, would be sitting in their homes feeling secure.

Where as those countries, who scoff at this technology as undoable, improbable, not 100% effective , will be scouring the ends of the earth, to find a supplier, which can provide them with even modicum of safety from enemy missiles.

 

[ShoutB]

There is nothing to boast about. Even India knows it's a defence system. You throw 10 stones 4 will hit but 6 will be stopped thus minimizing the destruction. This is what we have built it for.

jahil posts like these are so boring and full of BS that it is worthless even to respond but then have to clarify that it is a technological advancement and can be used for landing on an asteroid.

It is high time that Pakistan should open it's dictionary of english to urdu conversion and see the word Technology, it obviously does not mean Jehad!!

 

[tsinga]

ABM tech around the world, is its nascent stage, but there will come a time , when such technology, would have fully evolved, would be able knock out missiles, with a hundred percent effectiveness. It might be in 10 - 20 or 50 years.

Those nations, who took the lead now, in developing such technologies, would be sitting in their homes feeling secure.

Where as those countries, who scoff at this technology as undoable, improbable , will be scouring the ends of the earth, to find a supplier, which can give them even modicum of safety from enemy missiles.

Couldn't have put it better.
This is just the starting phases. The tech has a long way to go...and those who dismiss it now will regret it after a decade or two.

 

[sherin616]

Does india has satellite to detect bm ???

 

[nair]

eel that with the short missile flight time between India and Pakistan, it will be impossible for intercepting incoming missiles.

This is the most important part of the article, and it does make sense......

 

[Sparkle229]

Jitni koshis kr lo hum sy nhi bach sakty

 

[Challanger]

It can not save all but it can save some.. Now their enemies need to plan efficiently so that they can hit desired targets. Like false play at start and hit real target later. (Just saying)

 

[Laozi]

I am quoting below a passage written in a Pakistani newspaper, Daily Times by Dr Qaisar Rashid. I am not familiar with the previous works of this author but I would like to draw the attention of PDF members on the possible implications on Pakistan as opinioned by this gentleman.


"In this way, there are certain implications for Pakistan regarding India’s anti-ballistic missile defence shield. First, the defence shield has rendered the concept of minimum credible nuclear deterrence — which Pakistan imposed on South Asia through developing and testing its strategic nuclear weapons — insignificant. Secondly, the defence shield has undermined Pakistan’s first nuclear strike competency or option and instead, the defence shield has boosted or even restored India’s second nuclear strike capability. Thirdly, the defence shield has relegated Pakistan to taking refuge once again in its near-abandoned idea of looking for strategic depth in Afghanistan. Fourth, the defence shield gives India some space to maneouvre whenever Pakistan launches its alleged asymmetric war against India. Fifth, the defence shield reinforces the numerical strength of the Indian army and affects the future of Kashmir."

http://dailytimes.com.pk/opinion/18-May-16/indias-anti-ballistic-missile-defence-shield

@nair

 

[Challanger]

I am quoting below a passage written in a Pakistani newspaper, Daily Times by Dr Qaisar Rashid. I am not familiar with the previous works of this author but I would like to draw the attention of PDF members on the possible implications on Pakistan as opinioned by this gentleman.


"In this way, there are certain implications for Pakistan regarding India’s anti-ballistic missile defence shield. First, the defence shield has rendered the concept of minimum credible nuclear deterrence — which Pakistan imposed on South Asia through developing and testing its strategic nuclear weapons — insignificant. Secondly, the defence shield has undermined Pakistan’s first nuclear strike competency or option and instead, the defence shield has boosted or even restored India’s second nuclear strike capability. Thirdly, the defence shield has relegated Pakistan to taking refuge once again in its near-abandoned idea of looking for strategic depth in Afghanistan. Fourth, the defence shield gives India some space to maneouvre whenever Pakistan launches its alleged asymmetric war against India. Fifth, the defence shield reinforces the numerical strength of the Indian army and affects the future of Kashmir."

hahaha!! Good for you then.

On serious Note: Don't you think Pakistan Defense people already knew about India's advancements in this section? Obviously they did/do know but the thing is we are small country in terms of Economy and Land too. So we have to set timings for everything...

Don't forget India got Nukes first but still there were disturbance in Kashmir back in 90s..

 

[Laozi]

hahaha!! Good for you then.

On serious Note: Don't you think Pakistan Defense people already knew about India's advancements in this section? Obviously they did/do know but the thing is we are small country in terms of Economy and Land too. So we have to set timings for everything...

Don't forget India got Nukes first but still there were disturbance in Kashmir back in 90s..

Since it appears to be your first day on PDF, I must congratulate you to be here and hope that you remain an active contributor on this Forum.

Everything which seems good in the short run brings many bad results in future.

Indian cold start doctrine has brought tactical nuclear weapons on the table

as for your serious note, Pakistan will continue its aggressive Kashmir Policy till its foreign policy is controlled by other than civilian government. Indians have no doubt about Pakistan persistence and relentless obsession of Kashmir

 

[Photon]

It can not save all but it can save some.. Now their enemies need to plan efficiently so that they can hit desired targets. Like false play at start and hit real target later. (Just saying)

India deplyoing BMD, creates doubt in mind of Pakistanis.
i.e
Indians say, their dual layer BMD , has a 98.9% intercept possibility against upto 2500 Km range missile.

Knowing that, Pakistan will have to fire multiple missiles against a single target, at the same time.

But what if, Indians have anticipated this and moved in more interceptor batteries to protect that target.

There is a possibility, all missiles fired at the target will be intercepted.

Here in lies the doubt for Pakistan.

What if all its missiles fired are intercepted , Pakistan would have struck first, but without damaging India, and India nuclear response, which will surely follow , will destroy Pakistan.

Hence Pakistan will be more hesitant , to use the nuclear option, than it would be, if there were no defense shield.