It's a little more complicated than that I'm afraid.
The fact is that in light of Afghanistan's growing alliance with India, I punt that no matter the next President - be it Dr Abdullah or Dr Ghani - either man would likely tie up any meaningful settlement with Pakistan to that of an end to all hostilities between India and Pakistan. It is in Afghanistan's national interest to see the formation of a broader peaceful settlement across our region, given the immense economic advantages for all parties involved. If a long lasting settlement can be negotiated between our three countries, then all the rest as I've mentioned here would have little choice but to fall into line, for we'll be too big as a regional economy to be ignored. Moreover, to Afghans, any settlement with Pakistan would be meaningless if it risks estrangement with our Indian ally. As you can appreciate, they're very much a part of our compounded insurance against Pakistan in the current geopolitical trajectory.
I understand that my reflections here will not go too well among Pakistanis. However, sooner or later your leaders will need to read the writing on the wall, for the choices left to Pakistan are in fact dwindling by the day, with your country's fortunes needlessly going pear shaped for no good outcome to speak of. In contrast - and thanks to the American involvement in our country over the last 13 years - Afghanistan's fortunes have consistently improved. A glimpse at the Afghan economy offers optemism in light of consistant growth (even if in foreign funded life-support), the output in educated human capital grows exponentially, the increases in literacy are evident, advances in the Arts are immense, our media's professionalism rivals more advanced countries, significant social changes in society are making headway, improvements in gender perceptions are moving back to prewar days, major improvements in health and the growth of professionalism in the military and police forces delight us. In fact, those old enough to remember, have not seen a surge in national pride over our security forces and sportsmen since the pre-Communist days. With further improvements in national security and better governance, the potential for foreign investments are quite extraordinary and will eventually bring down unemployment significantly. Irrespective of any noise made by politicians or the media to the contrary, we Afghans know that our nation's on the right path. Can you however honestly tell me as a Pakistani that your people feel the same way?
On a positive note however, I believe the Pakistani government as well as elements within your security forces know that change needs to come from within Pakistan, before any serious discussions towards a permanent settlement in our region bares fruit. After all, Afghanistan is not turning back, the Americans will not disengage from our region and the Afghan-Indian relationship will only get stronger. I've no other way to put it when I say that your leaders are currently in a position to negotiate from a positioin of relative weakness. Although fortunately for you, Afghans, Indians as well as the Americans would sincerely like to help you make the right choices, rather than sharpen knives for any illconceived feast against you. Just as a Pakistan on an offensive via proxy against Afghanistan does not serve our national interest, neither does a dysfunctional Pakistan at our doorstep. Right now, it all depends on how quickly and effectively the Pakistani leadership acts and hope they'll act sooner rather than later. Too much time has already been wasted and mostly to the detriment of ordinary Pakistanis in particular.
Peace,
Thor
